Ben burns (2/26)
**EARLY ESPN WINNER! (NBA is 98-72 YTD) *7 ET
Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks Feb 26 2010 7:05PM
8* Atlanta Hawks -3
*SHOOTOUT ALERT!* BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT! (7 ET)
Washington Wizards at New York Knicks Feb 26 2010 7:05PM
8* Over 205
**BLOWOUT ALERT** *10* PERSONAL FAVORITE!!
Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers Feb 26 2010 8:05PM
10* Chicago Bulls -3 1/2
** MAAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH! (HUGE O/U RUN)
Manhattan College at Niagara Feb 26 2010 7:30PM
10* Under 138 1/22
**EARLY ESPN WINNER! (NBA is 98-72 YTD) *7 ET
Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks Feb 26 2010 7:05PM
8* Atlanta Hawks -3
*SHOOTOUT ALERT!* BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT! (7 ET)
Washington Wizards at New York Knicks Feb 26 2010 7:05PM
8* Over 205
**BLOWOUT ALERT** *10* PERSONAL FAVORITE!!
Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers Feb 26 2010 8:05PM
10* Chicago Bulls -3 1/2
** MAAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH! (HUGE O/U RUN)
Manhattan College at Niagara Feb 26 2010 7:30PM
10* Under 138 1/22
NBA DUNKEL
San Antonio at Houston
The Spurs look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26
Game 801-802: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.342; Toronto 115.803
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5 1/2); Under
Game 803-804: New York at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.954; Washington 110.256
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2; 205
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2); Under
Game 805-806: Orlando at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.625; New Orleans 115.080
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 4 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-4 1/2); Under
Game 807-808: Minnesota at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.520; Oklahoma City 120.963
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9 1/2); Over
Game 809-810: Dallas at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.531; Atlanta 120.538
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 195
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over
Game 811-812: Portland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.656; Chicago 125.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 9 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over
Game 813-814: Charlotte at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 112.841; Memphis 118.852
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3; 194
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Under
Game 815-816: San Antonio at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.520; Houston 114.852
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 196
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under
Game 817-818: Detroit at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.202; Denver 122.570
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 201
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+10); Under
Game 819-820: Utah at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 121.477; Sacramento 117.259
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 4; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 7 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+7 1/2); Under
Game 821-822: LA Clippers at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 111.166; Phoenix 118.554
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+9 1/2); Over
Game 823-824: Philadelphia at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 118.177; LA Lakers 126.132
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 11; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+11); Over
San Antonio at Houston
The Spurs look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26
Game 801-802: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.342; Toronto 115.803
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5 1/2); Under
Game 803-804: New York at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.954; Washington 110.256
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2; 205
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2); Under
Game 805-806: Orlando at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.625; New Orleans 115.080
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 4 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-4 1/2); Under
Game 807-808: Minnesota at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.520; Oklahoma City 120.963
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9 1/2); Over
Game 809-810: Dallas at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.531; Atlanta 120.538
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 195
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over
Game 811-812: Portland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.656; Chicago 125.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 9 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over
Game 813-814: Charlotte at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 112.841; Memphis 118.852
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3; 194
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Under
Game 815-816: San Antonio at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.520; Houston 114.852
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 196
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under
Game 817-818: Detroit at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.202; Denver 122.570
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 201
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+10); Under
Game 819-820: Utah at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 121.477; Sacramento 117.259
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 4; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 7 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+7 1/2); Under
Game 821-822: LA Clippers at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 111.166; Phoenix 118.554
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+9 1/2); Over
Game 823-824: Philadelphia at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 118.177; LA Lakers 126.132
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 11; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+11); Over
NBA WRITE-UP
Friday, February 26
Hot Teams
-- Toronto won 10 of its last 13 games.
-- Wizards covered six of their last seven games.
-- Hornets won three of their last four home games. Orlando won six of its last eight games.
-- Mavericks won their last five games. Hawks won six of their last nine games.
-- Bulls won five of their last six games. Portland covered eight of its last nine road games.
-- Grizzlies covered four of their last five games.
-- Nuggets won three of their last four games.
-- Jazz won 18 of its last 21 games.
-- Suns won four in row, 10 of last 12 games.
-- Clippers won last three games, by 10-4-6 points. 76ers are 10-5 in their last fifteen games.
Cold Teams
-- Cavaliers covered two of their last eight games.
-- Knicks lost last eight games (2-4 vs spread in last six).
-- Thunder lost last two games; they're 0-4 vs spread in last four games. Minnesota lost eight of last nine games, but covered last three.
-- Bobcats lost last three games, covered one of last eight.
-- Rockets lost three in row, six of last eight games. Spurs are 4-11 vs spread in their last fifteen games.
-- Detroit is 5-9-2 vs spread in its last sixteen games.
-- Kings lost last five games, losing by 3-32-10-16-12 points.
-- Lakers covered one of their last six home games.
Totals
-- Last eight Cleveland games went over the total. Four of Toronto's last five games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight New York games went over the total. Under is 9-2 in Washington's last eleven games.
-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen Orlando games. Three of last four New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Minnesota games stayed under the total; three of last four Oklahoma City games went over.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Portland games. Last three Chicago home games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Charlotte games.
-- Six of last nine Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 13-6 in last nineteen Detroit games.
-- Four of last five Sacramento games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Clipper road games went over the total. Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Phoenix games.
-- Six of last seven Laker games stayed under the total. Six of last nine Philadelphia games went over.
Friday, February 26
Hot Teams
-- Toronto won 10 of its last 13 games.
-- Wizards covered six of their last seven games.
-- Hornets won three of their last four home games. Orlando won six of its last eight games.
-- Mavericks won their last five games. Hawks won six of their last nine games.
-- Bulls won five of their last six games. Portland covered eight of its last nine road games.
-- Grizzlies covered four of their last five games.
-- Nuggets won three of their last four games.
-- Jazz won 18 of its last 21 games.
-- Suns won four in row, 10 of last 12 games.
-- Clippers won last three games, by 10-4-6 points. 76ers are 10-5 in their last fifteen games.
Cold Teams
-- Cavaliers covered two of their last eight games.
-- Knicks lost last eight games (2-4 vs spread in last six).
-- Thunder lost last two games; they're 0-4 vs spread in last four games. Minnesota lost eight of last nine games, but covered last three.
-- Bobcats lost last three games, covered one of last eight.
-- Rockets lost three in row, six of last eight games. Spurs are 4-11 vs spread in their last fifteen games.
-- Detroit is 5-9-2 vs spread in its last sixteen games.
-- Kings lost last five games, losing by 3-32-10-16-12 points.
-- Lakers covered one of their last six home games.
Totals
-- Last eight Cleveland games went over the total. Four of Toronto's last five games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight New York games went over the total. Under is 9-2 in Washington's last eleven games.
-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen Orlando games. Three of last four New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Minnesota games stayed under the total; three of last four Oklahoma City games went over.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Portland games. Last three Chicago home games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Charlotte games.
-- Six of last nine Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 13-6 in last nineteen Detroit games.
-- Four of last five Sacramento games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Clipper road games went over the total. Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Phoenix games.
-- Six of last seven Laker games stayed under the total. Six of last nine Philadelphia games went over.
NCAAB DUNKEL
Iona at Fairfield
The Gaels look to take advantage of a Fairfield team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games as a home favorite. Iona is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Gaels favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Iona (+3). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26
Game 825-826: Yale at Dartmouth
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 48.042; Dartmouth 41.727
Dunkel Line: Yale by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-3 1/2)
Game 827-828: Princeton at Cornell
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 56.841; Cornell 63.847
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 7
Vegas Line: Cornell by 11
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+11)
Game 829-830: Pennsylvania at Columbia
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 43.159; Columbia 48.058
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 5
Vegas Line: Columbia by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-3 1/2)
Game 831-832: Brown at Harvard
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 47.753; Harvard 59.454
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+15 1/2)
Game 833-834: Butler at Valparaiso
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 68.116; Valparaiso 56.113
Dunkel Line: Butler by 12
Vegas Line: Butler by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-8 1/2)
Game 835-836: Siena at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 63.378; Rider 55.109
Dunkel Line: Siena by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-6 1/2)
Game 837-838: Canisius at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.485; Loyola-MD 55.614
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 6
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 4
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-4)
Game 839-840: Iona at Fairfield
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 57.329; Fairfield 55.139
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 3
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+3)
Game 841-842: Niagara at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.983; Manhattan 49.416
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Niagara by 3
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-3)
Game 843-844: St. Peter's at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 52.009; Marist 44.972
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 7
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 9
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+9)
Game 845-846: Idaho State at Portland State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 43.451; Portland State 54.772
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-8 1/2)
Game 847-848: Northern Arizona at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 49.209; Sacramento State 43.056
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 6
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (-2)
Game 849-850: Weber State at Eastern Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 55.400; Eastern Washington 51.980
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Weber State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+5 1/2)
Iona at Fairfield
The Gaels look to take advantage of a Fairfield team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games as a home favorite. Iona is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Gaels favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Iona (+3). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26
Game 825-826: Yale at Dartmouth
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 48.042; Dartmouth 41.727
Dunkel Line: Yale by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-3 1/2)
Game 827-828: Princeton at Cornell
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 56.841; Cornell 63.847
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 7
Vegas Line: Cornell by 11
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+11)
Game 829-830: Pennsylvania at Columbia
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 43.159; Columbia 48.058
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 5
Vegas Line: Columbia by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-3 1/2)
Game 831-832: Brown at Harvard
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 47.753; Harvard 59.454
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+15 1/2)
Game 833-834: Butler at Valparaiso
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 68.116; Valparaiso 56.113
Dunkel Line: Butler by 12
Vegas Line: Butler by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-8 1/2)
Game 835-836: Siena at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 63.378; Rider 55.109
Dunkel Line: Siena by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-6 1/2)
Game 837-838: Canisius at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.485; Loyola-MD 55.614
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 6
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 4
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-4)
Game 839-840: Iona at Fairfield
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 57.329; Fairfield 55.139
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 3
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+3)
Game 841-842: Niagara at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.983; Manhattan 49.416
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Niagara by 3
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-3)
Game 843-844: St. Peter's at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 52.009; Marist 44.972
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 7
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 9
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+9)
Game 845-846: Idaho State at Portland State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 43.451; Portland State 54.772
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-8 1/2)
Game 847-848: Northern Arizona at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 49.209; Sacramento State 43.056
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 6
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (-2)
Game 849-850: Weber State at Eastern Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 55.400; Eastern Washington 51.980
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Weber State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+5 1/2)
NCAAB WRITE-UP
Friday, February 26
Information on Friday's college basketball games........
Yale (-11) beat Dartmouth 69-56 at home 13 days ago, after trailing by 8 at half; Bulldogs lost five of last seven games, are 2-3 on Ivy road, 2-1 as Ivy favorite. Ivy League home underdogs of 10 or less points are 3-7 vs spread. Dartmouth is 1-9 in Ivy, 3-1 as home dog, losing home games by 4-2-16-18 points, with lone win by 4 over Columbia.
Cornell pretty much clinches Ivy title with win here; they edged Tigers 48-45 in first meeting Feb 13 (-5), holding Princeton to 36.4% from the floor. Cornell won last three games, by 3-7-18 points, but covered just one of last six games- they're 3-2 as Ivy home favorite, winning by 21-34-36-19-14 points. Both Princeton Ivy losses are by three points.
Columbia lost four of last five games; only win was 66-62 over Quakers Jan 13 (+5); Lions made 9-16 from arc, 9-10 from line. Penn lost three of last four games; they're 3-1 as Ivy road underdog, losing away games by 13-14 points, with wins at Brown/Dartmouth by total of 3 points. Ivy League home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-8 against spread.
Harvard won four of last five games; they beat Brown 81-67 on Feb 13 (-9), shooting 53% with +14 rebound margin. Crimson is 2-2 as a home favorite, winning home games by 29-14-20 points (lost to both Cornell, Princeton). Brown won three of last four games, covered four of last five they're 4-1 as Ivy road dog, losing by 11 at Columbia, 14 at Cornell.
Butler is going for perfect 18-0 regular season in Horizon; they won by 17 in conference opener vs Valparaiso Dec 5, in game where both teams shot over 50% from floor. Bulldogs are 3-4 as Horizon road fave, with road wins by 12-2-1-29-18-7-11-11 points. Valpo is 9-2 vs spread in its last 11 league games. Single digit Horizon home dogs are 8-6 vs spread.
Siena lost two of last three games, all on road; they're 7-1 as road fave in MAAC games, winning away games by 13-20-8-8-8-19-17 points, with the loss at Niagara. Rider is 2-3 in last five games; they lost at Siena by 84-62 score Dec 23 (+14); Saints shot 54% for night. Broncs lost four of last six home games. Single digit MAAC home dogs are 6-12 vs spread.
Loyola (+1) shot 39% in 70-65 loss at Canisius Dec 4; Greyhounds are 0-7 vs spread at home, with only home wins over Rider by 2, Marist by 7- they're 0-3 as MAAC home favorites. Griffins are 4-2 as road dog in MAAC games, losing away games by 12-2-19-1-12 points. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-8 against the spread.
First home game in three weeks for Fairfield team that is 1-5 as favorite in MAAC home games, with home wins by 9-3-2-5-13 points. Stags are 5-1 vs spread in last six games as favorite. Iona (-5.5) made 11-26 from arc in 68-58 win over Fairfield Jan 24; Gaels won four of last five home games, are 2-1 against the spread as a MAAC road underdog.
Manhattan (+13) lost 88-64 at Niagara Dec 4, shooting 38% from floor; Jaspers are 2-5 at home in MAAC, beating Marist/St Peter's, losing the other games by 1-2-6-3-8-18 points. Niagara won five of last six games; they're 2-5 on MAAC road, 2-3 as road fave, winning by 16 at Marist, 9 at Loyola. Single digit MAAC home dogs are 6-12 vs spread.
Marist (+11) lost 61-49 at St Peter's Jan 4; Red Foxes are 2-6 as a home underdog in MAAC games, losing at home by 15-22-16-20-16-19-5 pts, with its only win of season vs Manhattan. Marist covered three of last four games. Peacocks are 2-4 as MAAC favorite, are 5-3 on road, with wins by 2-11-9-13-8 points. MAAC home dogs of 6+ points are 1-8.
Idaho State shot 59.6% from floor in 88-80 OT win over Portland State Jan 23 (-2), but Bengals lost six of seven games since; they're 2-3 as Big Sky road dog, losing away games by 1-12-12-3-23-25 points. Portland State lost its last five games; they're 2-2 as a Big Sky home fave, taking home games by 23-28-16. Big Sky home faves of 9+ points are 6-12.
Northern Arizona (-11) shot 57% from the floor, beat Sacramento State 75-71 Jan 24, after trailing by 3 at half; Lumberjacks are 2-5 on Big Sky road, losing last three away games- three of their last five games overall went to OT. Hornets lost four of last five games; they're 2-3 as Big Sky home dog, losing conference home games by 15-1-5-14 points.
Underdog is 6-0 vs spread in Eastern Washington's Big Sky home games; Eagles are 8-3 vs spread as Big Sky underdog, 3-0 at home, losing home games by 4-3-8 points (3-3 SU)- they lost 89-67 at Weber State Jan 23 (+16). Weber won four in row, nine of last ten games; they're 3-1 as Big Sky road favorite, winning away games by 15-25-2-4 points.
Friday, February 26
Information on Friday's college basketball games........
Yale (-11) beat Dartmouth 69-56 at home 13 days ago, after trailing by 8 at half; Bulldogs lost five of last seven games, are 2-3 on Ivy road, 2-1 as Ivy favorite. Ivy League home underdogs of 10 or less points are 3-7 vs spread. Dartmouth is 1-9 in Ivy, 3-1 as home dog, losing home games by 4-2-16-18 points, with lone win by 4 over Columbia.
Cornell pretty much clinches Ivy title with win here; they edged Tigers 48-45 in first meeting Feb 13 (-5), holding Princeton to 36.4% from the floor. Cornell won last three games, by 3-7-18 points, but covered just one of last six games- they're 3-2 as Ivy home favorite, winning by 21-34-36-19-14 points. Both Princeton Ivy losses are by three points.
Columbia lost four of last five games; only win was 66-62 over Quakers Jan 13 (+5); Lions made 9-16 from arc, 9-10 from line. Penn lost three of last four games; they're 3-1 as Ivy road underdog, losing away games by 13-14 points, with wins at Brown/Dartmouth by total of 3 points. Ivy League home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-8 against spread.
Harvard won four of last five games; they beat Brown 81-67 on Feb 13 (-9), shooting 53% with +14 rebound margin. Crimson is 2-2 as a home favorite, winning home games by 29-14-20 points (lost to both Cornell, Princeton). Brown won three of last four games, covered four of last five they're 4-1 as Ivy road dog, losing by 11 at Columbia, 14 at Cornell.
Butler is going for perfect 18-0 regular season in Horizon; they won by 17 in conference opener vs Valparaiso Dec 5, in game where both teams shot over 50% from floor. Bulldogs are 3-4 as Horizon road fave, with road wins by 12-2-1-29-18-7-11-11 points. Valpo is 9-2 vs spread in its last 11 league games. Single digit Horizon home dogs are 8-6 vs spread.
Siena lost two of last three games, all on road; they're 7-1 as road fave in MAAC games, winning away games by 13-20-8-8-8-19-17 points, with the loss at Niagara. Rider is 2-3 in last five games; they lost at Siena by 84-62 score Dec 23 (+14); Saints shot 54% for night. Broncs lost four of last six home games. Single digit MAAC home dogs are 6-12 vs spread.
Loyola (+1) shot 39% in 70-65 loss at Canisius Dec 4; Greyhounds are 0-7 vs spread at home, with only home wins over Rider by 2, Marist by 7- they're 0-3 as MAAC home favorites. Griffins are 4-2 as road dog in MAAC games, losing away games by 12-2-19-1-12 points. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-8 against the spread.
First home game in three weeks for Fairfield team that is 1-5 as favorite in MAAC home games, with home wins by 9-3-2-5-13 points. Stags are 5-1 vs spread in last six games as favorite. Iona (-5.5) made 11-26 from arc in 68-58 win over Fairfield Jan 24; Gaels won four of last five home games, are 2-1 against the spread as a MAAC road underdog.
Manhattan (+13) lost 88-64 at Niagara Dec 4, shooting 38% from floor; Jaspers are 2-5 at home in MAAC, beating Marist/St Peter's, losing the other games by 1-2-6-3-8-18 points. Niagara won five of last six games; they're 2-5 on MAAC road, 2-3 as road fave, winning by 16 at Marist, 9 at Loyola. Single digit MAAC home dogs are 6-12 vs spread.
Marist (+11) lost 61-49 at St Peter's Jan 4; Red Foxes are 2-6 as a home underdog in MAAC games, losing at home by 15-22-16-20-16-19-5 pts, with its only win of season vs Manhattan. Marist covered three of last four games. Peacocks are 2-4 as MAAC favorite, are 5-3 on road, with wins by 2-11-9-13-8 points. MAAC home dogs of 6+ points are 1-8.
Idaho State shot 59.6% from floor in 88-80 OT win over Portland State Jan 23 (-2), but Bengals lost six of seven games since; they're 2-3 as Big Sky road dog, losing away games by 1-12-12-3-23-25 points. Portland State lost its last five games; they're 2-2 as a Big Sky home fave, taking home games by 23-28-16. Big Sky home faves of 9+ points are 6-12.
Northern Arizona (-11) shot 57% from the floor, beat Sacramento State 75-71 Jan 24, after trailing by 3 at half; Lumberjacks are 2-5 on Big Sky road, losing last three away games- three of their last five games overall went to OT. Hornets lost four of last five games; they're 2-3 as Big Sky home dog, losing conference home games by 15-1-5-14 points.
Underdog is 6-0 vs spread in Eastern Washington's Big Sky home games; Eagles are 8-3 vs spread as Big Sky underdog, 3-0 at home, losing home games by 4-3-8 points (3-3 SU)- they lost 89-67 at Weber State Jan 23 (+16). Weber won four in row, nine of last ten games; they're 3-1 as Big Sky road favorite, winning away games by 15-25-2-4 points.
Insider Angles
The Chicago Bulls have become scoring machines lately, probably saving the job of Coach Vinny Del Negro in the process, while the Portland Trail Blazers are starting to return to their fine offensive form of earlier this season now that Brandon Roy is back.
The Bulls have scored at least 100 points in five of their last six games, impressively scoring at least 115 points in four of those contests. They are averaging a whopping 110.4 points in their last five games on a very good 46.8 percent shooting, and they have raised their home average to 97.9 points per game for the season.
The Blazers were struggling for a while as they were depleted with injuries, but most of their players have now returned, with Roy being the most notable. Portland has topped 100 points in two straight games and in four of their last six contests. Sure, they are still on a 7-2 Under run, but again, most of that was with a short roster.
Besides, these teams are accustomed to having shootouts against each other, as the Over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings. This includes their first encounter this season, when the clubs combined for 220 points in Portland back in November.
Look for the dominance of the Over in this series to continue here.
NBA Friday Pick: Blazers, Bulls Over 193
The Chicago Bulls have become scoring machines lately, probably saving the job of Coach Vinny Del Negro in the process, while the Portland Trail Blazers are starting to return to their fine offensive form of earlier this season now that Brandon Roy is back.
The Bulls have scored at least 100 points in five of their last six games, impressively scoring at least 115 points in four of those contests. They are averaging a whopping 110.4 points in their last five games on a very good 46.8 percent shooting, and they have raised their home average to 97.9 points per game for the season.
The Blazers were struggling for a while as they were depleted with injuries, but most of their players have now returned, with Roy being the most notable. Portland has topped 100 points in two straight games and in four of their last six contests. Sure, they are still on a 7-2 Under run, but again, most of that was with a short roster.
Besides, these teams are accustomed to having shootouts against each other, as the Over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings. This includes their first encounter this season, when the clubs combined for 220 points in Portland back in November.
Look for the dominance of the Over in this series to continue here.
NBA Friday Pick: Blazers, Bulls Over 193
SPORTS WAGERS
USA -½ +1.04 over Finland
Somehow the Fins are getting a little too much credit here. They opened the tourney with a 5-1 win over Belarus and followed that up with a 5-0 win over Germany. Big deal. In its third preliminary game they fell to the Swedes 3-0 and looked overmatched in doing so. To advance to this stage the Fins beat the Czechs 2-0 and it’s safe to suggest the Czechs did not have a great tournament, as they beat Latvia 3-2 to get here and it’s only notable win coming over the underachieving, and as it turned out, very beatable Russians. The Fins could not find the back of the net against Henrik Lundqvist and things sure as hell won’t be any easier against Ryan Miller. Finland has some very decent talent but all of its top players are second line NHLers with the exception of Backstrom and not top line guys. Its defense is average at best and to prove that point all you have to do is look at the roster and see Toni Lydman on the squad. The Americans have yet to lose a game and that includes its memorable win over the powerful Canadians. USA has the firepower, they have the goaltending and a date with the Canadians on Sunday for Gold is unlikely to be hindered by the Fins. Play: USA -½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Portland +1.46 over CHICAGO
The Bulls are a decent squad, make no mistake about that, however, they’re also a beatable squad and when they play quality teams they don’t look nearly as good. A close look reveals that the Bulls last seven wins have come against Indiana twice, the Knicks twice, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Miami. All those teams are below .500 and the win over the Heat was at home and they won by four. The Bulls last three losses were to Washington, Atlanta, and Orlando, the latter two, both teams well above .500, by 10 and 20 points respectively. The Trail Blazers are about as tough as they come, both mentally and physically. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over the Nets and Raps and should have three wins in a row after they blew a 25-point lead to the red-hot Jazz and eventually lost in OT. The Bulls stock is overvalued because of a string of very high offensive productions but again, that was against some of the league’s worst defensive squads. The same fate does not wait them here. Portland can play defense and they can play it as good as anyone. They have dominated the Bulls over the years, beating them five straight with the last three all being blowouts. We also have a case of East vs West and that, too, is significant. Play: Portland +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
NEW ORLEANS +4½/+1.70 over Orlando
These small road favorites on Friday nights have a long history of rolling snake eyes and after those small road favorites went 3-0 last night you can be damn sure a couple or more upsets will take place tonight. The Hornets are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cav’s and Bucks but the 10-point loss to the Cav’s is a very misleading score. The Hornets were in that one right down to the wire and gave Cleveland a huge run for its money. The next night they were a bit gassed in that loss to the Bucks but Milwaukee is playing terrific ball right now. The Hornets are still 19-9 at home and remain one of the more undervalued teams in the league. By contrast, the Magic remain one of the more overvalued clubs. They have a great record but they’re not as good as last year’s squad. They’re 17-13 on the road but they’re just 5-6 on the road against Western clubs with only wins coming against the T-Wolves, Clip Joint, Sacramento twice and Houston. That’s not very impressive at all and they pretty much always lose to quality western teams on the road. The Hornets qualify as such. Play: New Orleans +4½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play: New Orleans +1.70 (Risking 1 unit).
OKLAHOMA CITY –9½ over Minnesota
The best part about this game is that the Thunder are coming off back-to-back losses and will not take this night off. This is a determined group that will not take the T-Wolves for granted. Minnesota is coming off four very intense and close games in a row and that takes its toll, especially on bad teams. They very often get blown away and picking the spots when that’ll occur is tricky but this one sets up beautifully for that to happen. Aside from those four close games, the T-Wolves will play its third straight on the road before heading home to play Portland tomorrow night and asking them to stay close to the hungry Thunder is an assignment they likely won’t be prepared to deal with. Play: Oklahoma City –9½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
USA -½ +1.04 over Finland
Somehow the Fins are getting a little too much credit here. They opened the tourney with a 5-1 win over Belarus and followed that up with a 5-0 win over Germany. Big deal. In its third preliminary game they fell to the Swedes 3-0 and looked overmatched in doing so. To advance to this stage the Fins beat the Czechs 2-0 and it’s safe to suggest the Czechs did not have a great tournament, as they beat Latvia 3-2 to get here and it’s only notable win coming over the underachieving, and as it turned out, very beatable Russians. The Fins could not find the back of the net against Henrik Lundqvist and things sure as hell won’t be any easier against Ryan Miller. Finland has some very decent talent but all of its top players are second line NHLers with the exception of Backstrom and not top line guys. Its defense is average at best and to prove that point all you have to do is look at the roster and see Toni Lydman on the squad. The Americans have yet to lose a game and that includes its memorable win over the powerful Canadians. USA has the firepower, they have the goaltending and a date with the Canadians on Sunday for Gold is unlikely to be hindered by the Fins. Play: USA -½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Portland +1.46 over CHICAGO
The Bulls are a decent squad, make no mistake about that, however, they’re also a beatable squad and when they play quality teams they don’t look nearly as good. A close look reveals that the Bulls last seven wins have come against Indiana twice, the Knicks twice, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Miami. All those teams are below .500 and the win over the Heat was at home and they won by four. The Bulls last three losses were to Washington, Atlanta, and Orlando, the latter two, both teams well above .500, by 10 and 20 points respectively. The Trail Blazers are about as tough as they come, both mentally and physically. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over the Nets and Raps and should have three wins in a row after they blew a 25-point lead to the red-hot Jazz and eventually lost in OT. The Bulls stock is overvalued because of a string of very high offensive productions but again, that was against some of the league’s worst defensive squads. The same fate does not wait them here. Portland can play defense and they can play it as good as anyone. They have dominated the Bulls over the years, beating them five straight with the last three all being blowouts. We also have a case of East vs West and that, too, is significant. Play: Portland +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
NEW ORLEANS +4½/+1.70 over Orlando
These small road favorites on Friday nights have a long history of rolling snake eyes and after those small road favorites went 3-0 last night you can be damn sure a couple or more upsets will take place tonight. The Hornets are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cav’s and Bucks but the 10-point loss to the Cav’s is a very misleading score. The Hornets were in that one right down to the wire and gave Cleveland a huge run for its money. The next night they were a bit gassed in that loss to the Bucks but Milwaukee is playing terrific ball right now. The Hornets are still 19-9 at home and remain one of the more undervalued teams in the league. By contrast, the Magic remain one of the more overvalued clubs. They have a great record but they’re not as good as last year’s squad. They’re 17-13 on the road but they’re just 5-6 on the road against Western clubs with only wins coming against the T-Wolves, Clip Joint, Sacramento twice and Houston. That’s not very impressive at all and they pretty much always lose to quality western teams on the road. The Hornets qualify as such. Play: New Orleans +4½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play: New Orleans +1.70 (Risking 1 unit).
OKLAHOMA CITY –9½ over Minnesota
The best part about this game is that the Thunder are coming off back-to-back losses and will not take this night off. This is a determined group that will not take the T-Wolves for granted. Minnesota is coming off four very intense and close games in a row and that takes its toll, especially on bad teams. They very often get blown away and picking the spots when that’ll occur is tricky but this one sets up beautifully for that to happen. Aside from those four close games, the T-Wolves will play its third straight on the road before heading home to play Portland tomorrow night and asking them to stay close to the hungry Thunder is an assignment they likely won’t be prepared to deal with. Play: Oklahoma City –9½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
VR’s Morning Moves - Friday, February 26, 2010
Report Status: FRIDAY FEB 26th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est by SAT 2-27-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTIONS for FRIDAY FEB 26th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART 2 = “VEGAS TRAP GAMES….FACT or FICTION”
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen…We had a loser last night, which was our 1st Best Bet loss, and I’ll be the first to admit that even though we are cashing at over “61%” ATS on “Morning Moves” Overall…which is actually a Winning % much higher than any professional handicapper or sports bettor can ever hope to attain…the bottom line is that during this past week…we are being challenged…
And to be perfectly honest, even though I hate losing more than most people I know because of my competitive nature…the fact that we are being challenged offers us the opportunity to really put so many of those concepts on “Money Management” that we’ve covered to actual use…Because there is no benefit in simply knowing something, the benefit comes in being able to employ what you know to your advantage…
And if you are truly trying to build a strong foundation for your business…and put together a winning plan…then you need to make sure that you are set up to face the challenges that you are definitely going to face along the way…So my best advice to you is to simply go back on occasion and read some of those previous Newsletters that I wrote on Money Management…Because it would be the equivalent of when I was trying to become a winning sports bettor, and had a few very sharp mentors who continued to tell me many of those same things each and every day…
Now let’s move on to Part 2 of our series on “TRAP GAMES”…Because this is such a vital part of understanding the way that this market actually works…And I also believe it will lay many misconceptions to rest and allow you to keep it simple, rather than try and make it more difficult than it needs to be…
To refresh your memory…yesterday I claimed that my OPINION is that there IS NOT…nor has there EVER BEEN…a “Trap Line” sent out by the Oddsmakers, and offered by the Bookmakers…to try and entice the recreational bettors…to take a losing positions…Meaning, that because they know what the outcome will be…they can then put out a line to make bettors wager on the losing side or total…
And many people use the phrase…”Vegas Wants You to Bet…”
The biggest support to my claim that there is no such thing…is the fact that the house isn’t in the business of gambling…And if they were forced to take a position on every game, because they couldn’t get balanced action…then it wouldn’t be the VIG that was their edge…Instead, it would be the bettors lack of knowledge that they depended on…Which would be extremely dangerous because we have continued to see that in this information age, even your recreational bettor is so much more sophisticated than ever before…And to be perfectly honest, I am a strong believer that if more bettors put as much emphasis on the money management side of this racket…as they do on the handicapping side of it…they would actually give the bookmakers a tough fight for their money…
But the reason 9 out of 10...and even higher, lose money betting on sports is because they don’t know HOW to bet…Not because they don’t know WHAT to bet…
The reason for this is because in all honesty…today’s odds makers just aren’t that good…And because of that, there is absolutely no possible way that I believe they can “set a trap”…I mean, there is more money in beating the number than there is in making it…And not to call anyone out, but we all know that there are “head odds makers” who at one time were actually handicappers who were trying to make their money betting…But just weren’t able to…
Also, when the odds makers meet with their crew to try and determine what line to send out, this is how it goes…And I can tell you this as fact because a very good friend, who is actually a handicapper and was here at Pregame…worked for LVSC, the company who supplies the Nevada sports books with odds…They sit around a table and they all give their number for a particular game based on their power-ratings and other handicapping…Then as a group, they try to determine if that number is capable of splitting the betting action…while also being strong enough that the Betting Syndicates won’t see too much Value to try and take advantage of…
Many times, they go ahead and decide that it does accomplish those goals…So that becomes the “line” or “price” for that game…Other times, they come to the conclusion that based on “perception”…that “True Line” will NOT split the betting action…So they then have to adjust it, to where they believe that betting action will come in on both sides…And I like to call that a “Fair Line”…
Now when this is the route they take what usually happens is that even if they are mistaken and the line don’t attract 2-way action from the betting public…they end up getting bailed out because the “sharper” money will come in on the other side…
Other times they are completely mistaken and the line they send out don’t attract 2-way betting action…And even worse, BOTH the betting public and the Wiseguys are on the same side…And these are the times that the sports books are in the worst position that they can possibly be in…Because they are now forced to need a side…And that is something that a sports book never wants…Because they are not in the business of gambling…
The bottom line is this…If the odds makers/bookmakers had the ability to KNOW what the outcome will be, then why not set a “trap” for EVERY game on the board…I mean, it’s not like those who believe in “traps” on see them for certain teams…So that means that they KNOW what every team is capable of and should do…And if any man was able to do that, then why on earth would they only do it on certain match-ups…Where’s the logic in that…
Finally, I am not saying that those who believe in the “Trap” are 100% incorrect…Instead, what I am saying is that they are simply reaching their conclusion in a different manner than they think…What they are ultimately doing is not finding a “trap”…Instead, they are simply finding a WEAK line…And the reason the line is weak is because the odds makers or bookmakers made the mistake of thinking a certain number would get them split action…
Again, I can’t say this enough…This is a market just like any other…And what it comes down to is price…The only difference with out market, the sports betting market…is that the ONLY goal for setting a price…is to get balanced action on a game…Sometimes it accomplishes that, many times it don’t…But in the end, that is the ultimate and ONLY goal that the price has…
Because of that fact…there are ample opportunities each day for bettors to profit…Because for lack of a better phrase…”The Price Isn’t Right”…And when the price is wrong, then the bettor can find value…And when the bettor finds value enough, over time…he/she will win more times than they lose…
Believe me, there is no more ridiculous phrase in sports betting than “Vegas Needs”…Because in reality, when something has a built in edge for the house…like sports betting does, by charging a VIG…then the only thing they need is VOLUME…Because the more volume they get, the more profit that EDGE is going to make them over time…It’s not like when you look at a Roulette Table, there is a time when “Vegas Needs Red”…Because there is a built in edge, and over time…the house simply needs volume to turn a profit from that edge…
I am not trying to say that those handicappers and bettors who think that way are 100% wrong…And I know plenty to beat this market year in and year out with that reasoning…And because of that, they shouldn’t change a single thing that they do…But with that said, I truly believe that they are ultimately reaching their winning conclusions by finding weak lines…and not by guessing which side the odds makers want the bettors to go…and then go the other way…
If the odds makers were that good…and the bookmakers had the confidence that they were capable of doing that…We would NEVER see a line-move on those “Trap Games”…Because if you already know you set a winning ‘trap”…then wouldn’t you simply want to keep inviting more and more money until the game begins…But they move their lines because in the end, just like I said from the very beginning in Part 1...the main goal, and ultimately only goal the books have…is to balance the money being wagered, so that they can minimize their risk/exposure…While simultaneously maximizing profit…
I can go on and talk about this topic forever…and make this a 10 Part Series…But instead, we will move on to something else for Saturday, and who knows…we just may revisit this one again in the future because it does play such a crucial role in how you will look at this market…And one of my goals, is to help you to REALLY understand how this market works…I have worked in it in different capacities so I believe I can do this very well…And always remember, there is never any need to make things more difficult than they truly are…or to look for conspiracies that just aren’t there…
Best of Luck and Thanks Again for Your Continued Support…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 805 ORLANDO -4.5
This line should get adjusted upwards…Most of the Sharps I spoke with feel it’s a bit low, and the books should definitely see money come in on Orlando from the Betting Public…So unless the Outfits “steam” the Hornets…this line should see some movement…VR
2.) 849 WEBER ST -5.5
I was surprised that the Outfits didn’t try to get out ahead of the market already by “steaming” Weber St…Because the books are definitely going to get that side from the public later today, and it’s also one of those sides that will attract a ton of teaser money…My feeling is that the Wiseguys will eventually make this move, and even if they don’t…the books should still be forced to adjust as the bettors start getting down…Only a “steam” play on E Wash should keep this from happening, and I haven’t heard anyone looking to do that as of this morning…VR
Fri, 02/26/10 - 8:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 813 CHL 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 814 MEM
Analysis:
** NBA 2* TRUE STEAM BET ** (Possible 3* BEST BET Upgrade)
We are "5-1" on MORNING MOVES "True Steam"...and 71% ATS over our L/14 TRUE STEAM Bets Overall...And we'll try to add to that with another very strong NBA Bet tonight...In fact, I urge you to PLEASE check back by 6:30pm est (Final Update)...for a possible Upgrade if I continue to get more support...
The bottom line here is that the books have sent out a "Fair Line" in an attempt to attract 2-Way action, and so far it's worked...Because even though the betting public has already taken the favorite, and will continue to do so up till tip-off...the Wiseguys grabbed +3.5, and took a significant position on the Dog...
My TRUE LINE for this is actually a PICK, so we are getting plenty of "Line-Value"...And as important as that always is...I also feel that there is an EDGE in the Match-Up...Charlotte has beaten Memphis in 3 of their L/4 meetings, and should be able to do it again...
But being able to get +3 or better...makes this wager so much stronger...So Let's go ahead and grab the Points with Charlotte...and see if we can get another TRUE STEAM WINNER on the books...VR
Report Status: FRIDAY FEB 26th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est by SAT 2-27-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTIONS for FRIDAY FEB 26th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART 2 = “VEGAS TRAP GAMES….FACT or FICTION”
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen…We had a loser last night, which was our 1st Best Bet loss, and I’ll be the first to admit that even though we are cashing at over “61%” ATS on “Morning Moves” Overall…which is actually a Winning % much higher than any professional handicapper or sports bettor can ever hope to attain…the bottom line is that during this past week…we are being challenged…
And to be perfectly honest, even though I hate losing more than most people I know because of my competitive nature…the fact that we are being challenged offers us the opportunity to really put so many of those concepts on “Money Management” that we’ve covered to actual use…Because there is no benefit in simply knowing something, the benefit comes in being able to employ what you know to your advantage…
And if you are truly trying to build a strong foundation for your business…and put together a winning plan…then you need to make sure that you are set up to face the challenges that you are definitely going to face along the way…So my best advice to you is to simply go back on occasion and read some of those previous Newsletters that I wrote on Money Management…Because it would be the equivalent of when I was trying to become a winning sports bettor, and had a few very sharp mentors who continued to tell me many of those same things each and every day…
Now let’s move on to Part 2 of our series on “TRAP GAMES”…Because this is such a vital part of understanding the way that this market actually works…And I also believe it will lay many misconceptions to rest and allow you to keep it simple, rather than try and make it more difficult than it needs to be…
To refresh your memory…yesterday I claimed that my OPINION is that there IS NOT…nor has there EVER BEEN…a “Trap Line” sent out by the Oddsmakers, and offered by the Bookmakers…to try and entice the recreational bettors…to take a losing positions…Meaning, that because they know what the outcome will be…they can then put out a line to make bettors wager on the losing side or total…
And many people use the phrase…”Vegas Wants You to Bet…”
The biggest support to my claim that there is no such thing…is the fact that the house isn’t in the business of gambling…And if they were forced to take a position on every game, because they couldn’t get balanced action…then it wouldn’t be the VIG that was their edge…Instead, it would be the bettors lack of knowledge that they depended on…Which would be extremely dangerous because we have continued to see that in this information age, even your recreational bettor is so much more sophisticated than ever before…And to be perfectly honest, I am a strong believer that if more bettors put as much emphasis on the money management side of this racket…as they do on the handicapping side of it…they would actually give the bookmakers a tough fight for their money…
But the reason 9 out of 10...and even higher, lose money betting on sports is because they don’t know HOW to bet…Not because they don’t know WHAT to bet…
The reason for this is because in all honesty…today’s odds makers just aren’t that good…And because of that, there is absolutely no possible way that I believe they can “set a trap”…I mean, there is more money in beating the number than there is in making it…And not to call anyone out, but we all know that there are “head odds makers” who at one time were actually handicappers who were trying to make their money betting…But just weren’t able to…
Also, when the odds makers meet with their crew to try and determine what line to send out, this is how it goes…And I can tell you this as fact because a very good friend, who is actually a handicapper and was here at Pregame…worked for LVSC, the company who supplies the Nevada sports books with odds…They sit around a table and they all give their number for a particular game based on their power-ratings and other handicapping…Then as a group, they try to determine if that number is capable of splitting the betting action…while also being strong enough that the Betting Syndicates won’t see too much Value to try and take advantage of…
Many times, they go ahead and decide that it does accomplish those goals…So that becomes the “line” or “price” for that game…Other times, they come to the conclusion that based on “perception”…that “True Line” will NOT split the betting action…So they then have to adjust it, to where they believe that betting action will come in on both sides…And I like to call that a “Fair Line”…
Now when this is the route they take what usually happens is that even if they are mistaken and the line don’t attract 2-way action from the betting public…they end up getting bailed out because the “sharper” money will come in on the other side…
Other times they are completely mistaken and the line they send out don’t attract 2-way betting action…And even worse, BOTH the betting public and the Wiseguys are on the same side…And these are the times that the sports books are in the worst position that they can possibly be in…Because they are now forced to need a side…And that is something that a sports book never wants…Because they are not in the business of gambling…
The bottom line is this…If the odds makers/bookmakers had the ability to KNOW what the outcome will be, then why not set a “trap” for EVERY game on the board…I mean, it’s not like those who believe in “traps” on see them for certain teams…So that means that they KNOW what every team is capable of and should do…And if any man was able to do that, then why on earth would they only do it on certain match-ups…Where’s the logic in that…
Finally, I am not saying that those who believe in the “Trap” are 100% incorrect…Instead, what I am saying is that they are simply reaching their conclusion in a different manner than they think…What they are ultimately doing is not finding a “trap”…Instead, they are simply finding a WEAK line…And the reason the line is weak is because the odds makers or bookmakers made the mistake of thinking a certain number would get them split action…
Again, I can’t say this enough…This is a market just like any other…And what it comes down to is price…The only difference with out market, the sports betting market…is that the ONLY goal for setting a price…is to get balanced action on a game…Sometimes it accomplishes that, many times it don’t…But in the end, that is the ultimate and ONLY goal that the price has…
Because of that fact…there are ample opportunities each day for bettors to profit…Because for lack of a better phrase…”The Price Isn’t Right”…And when the price is wrong, then the bettor can find value…And when the bettor finds value enough, over time…he/she will win more times than they lose…
Believe me, there is no more ridiculous phrase in sports betting than “Vegas Needs”…Because in reality, when something has a built in edge for the house…like sports betting does, by charging a VIG…then the only thing they need is VOLUME…Because the more volume they get, the more profit that EDGE is going to make them over time…It’s not like when you look at a Roulette Table, there is a time when “Vegas Needs Red”…Because there is a built in edge, and over time…the house simply needs volume to turn a profit from that edge…
I am not trying to say that those handicappers and bettors who think that way are 100% wrong…And I know plenty to beat this market year in and year out with that reasoning…And because of that, they shouldn’t change a single thing that they do…But with that said, I truly believe that they are ultimately reaching their winning conclusions by finding weak lines…and not by guessing which side the odds makers want the bettors to go…and then go the other way…
If the odds makers were that good…and the bookmakers had the confidence that they were capable of doing that…We would NEVER see a line-move on those “Trap Games”…Because if you already know you set a winning ‘trap”…then wouldn’t you simply want to keep inviting more and more money until the game begins…But they move their lines because in the end, just like I said from the very beginning in Part 1...the main goal, and ultimately only goal the books have…is to balance the money being wagered, so that they can minimize their risk/exposure…While simultaneously maximizing profit…
I can go on and talk about this topic forever…and make this a 10 Part Series…But instead, we will move on to something else for Saturday, and who knows…we just may revisit this one again in the future because it does play such a crucial role in how you will look at this market…And one of my goals, is to help you to REALLY understand how this market works…I have worked in it in different capacities so I believe I can do this very well…And always remember, there is never any need to make things more difficult than they truly are…or to look for conspiracies that just aren’t there…
Best of Luck and Thanks Again for Your Continued Support…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 805 ORLANDO -4.5
This line should get adjusted upwards…Most of the Sharps I spoke with feel it’s a bit low, and the books should definitely see money come in on Orlando from the Betting Public…So unless the Outfits “steam” the Hornets…this line should see some movement…VR
2.) 849 WEBER ST -5.5
I was surprised that the Outfits didn’t try to get out ahead of the market already by “steaming” Weber St…Because the books are definitely going to get that side from the public later today, and it’s also one of those sides that will attract a ton of teaser money…My feeling is that the Wiseguys will eventually make this move, and even if they don’t…the books should still be forced to adjust as the bettors start getting down…Only a “steam” play on E Wash should keep this from happening, and I haven’t heard anyone looking to do that as of this morning…VR
Fri, 02/26/10 - 8:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 813 CHL 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 814 MEM
Analysis:
** NBA 2* TRUE STEAM BET ** (Possible 3* BEST BET Upgrade)
We are "5-1" on MORNING MOVES "True Steam"...and 71% ATS over our L/14 TRUE STEAM Bets Overall...And we'll try to add to that with another very strong NBA Bet tonight...In fact, I urge you to PLEASE check back by 6:30pm est (Final Update)...for a possible Upgrade if I continue to get more support...
The bottom line here is that the books have sent out a "Fair Line" in an attempt to attract 2-Way action, and so far it's worked...Because even though the betting public has already taken the favorite, and will continue to do so up till tip-off...the Wiseguys grabbed +3.5, and took a significant position on the Dog...
My TRUE LINE for this is actually a PICK, so we are getting plenty of "Line-Value"...And as important as that always is...I also feel that there is an EDGE in the Match-Up...Charlotte has beaten Memphis in 3 of their L/4 meetings, and should be able to do it again...
But being able to get +3 or better...makes this wager so much stronger...So Let's go ahead and grab the Points with Charlotte...and see if we can get another TRUE STEAM WINNER on the books...VR
Bob Valentino
Bob Valentino 30 Dime NBA Winner ... 30 DIME: L.A. CLIPPERS
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Bob Valentino 30 Dime NBA Winner ... 30 DIME: L.A. CLIPPERS
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
