STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NBA REPORT
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 20th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 2/20/15 National Basketball Association Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational and Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Betting News & Notes – Week #17
The second half of the National Basketball Association season kicked off Thursday night, with teams returning from the annual All-Star break. If basketball bettors were asked to classify the opening three and a half months of NBA action, they could say the 2014-15 season has been a little “Under-whelming” so far.
The Under has been the hot play when it comes to the Association, with teams playing below the oddsmakers’ number nearly 54 percent of the time. That clip isn’t exactly storming the sportsbook. But over the past 30 days, NBA games have gone 93-129 Over/Under (58 percent), including a 47-62 O/U count (57 percent) in the two weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Teams have combined to score an average of 197.1 points per game against an average total of 199.3 points in that two-week span – which sits just below the NBA scoring average of 199.8 points per contest.
Like most trends, oddsmakers expect this decisive lean toward the Under to balance out before the end of the regular season. And when it does, it won’t be because of their knee-jerk reaction to the number of game cashing in for the Under. Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based oddsmaking service The Sports Club, says it is business as usual when it comes to setting the totals for nightly NBA action.
“Recent results are the biggest thing for us when making the numbers,” Korner tells StatSystemsSports.net. “If there is a trend, we might follow it. But those trends have just as much to do with performance as they do the number, and we follow performance.” Korner says that most trends come and go and that these leans, one way or the other, do level themselves out. However, his team won’t be simply adjusting their totals based on how many times the Under has come through – unless the books were getting beat up by Under bettors. “If things are going Under and the books are getting shellacked by the Under, then we would be concerned,” he says.
“But just because something keeps coming through doesn’t mean that everyone is betting it. And we’d much prefer the games to keep going Under than Over, we’re glad to hear that. The squares and parlays generally bet the Over and it would be a little problematic if the Over was hitting like that.”
As of Thursday night, only seven NBA teams have paid out more on the Over than the Under - Indiana, Toronto, Atlanta, Minnesota, New Orleans, Phoenix and Boston - and just the Pacers are topping the total at more than 55 percent with a 31-22-1 Over/Under record. On the other end of the scale, there are 13 teams playing Under the number at better than 55 percent, led by Philadelphia (18-35-0 O/U), Cleveland (20-34-1 O/U), Brooklyn (20-32-0 O/U), and Miami (20-32-0 O/U).
That Under run in NBA action hasn’t caught on with the general tourist crowd in Las Vegas, where most shops are still seeing more public money on the Over. According to Nick Bogdanovich, U.S. director of trading for William Hill in Nevada, it would take a lot more than a trend to trim their NBA totals. “If there was a rule change or if refs all of sudden were calling it really tight, then obviously we would adjust. But that pattern (of the public betting the Over) is still there,” Bogdanovich told us.
“The pros control the market and we’re adjusting off what they do. If they start betting the Under more, we’ll have to adjust our numbers a little lower.”
That’s all good and well for bookmakers who draw the majority of their handle from the average sports bettor. But what happens when the bulk of your customer base is considered “wiseguys” and have a more educated approach to betting, especially totals – the most popular play among sharps. Scott Kaminsky, sportsbook director at online market TheGreek.com, deals with a very wise clientele and says NBA Unders have been the popular play – more popular than the Over – so far this season. While public bettors generally flock to the Over, hoping for an exciting high-scoring game to watch, his customers normally pick and choose their spots.
“They’ve bet the Under more than they’ve bet the Over this year, for sure,” Kaminsky said. “We’re probably down a little bit (with NBA totals), but we’re tuned into the trends and how the smart guys are betting and we adjust in a timely fashion.”
If you’re looking to jump on this Under trend going into the second half of the schedule, do so with some caution. Over the past 10 seasons, the Over has been the more frequent result – just slightly – following the All-Star break with a 2,211-2,188-53 Over/Under record. Games have averaged 199.5 points against an average total of 198.9 in that span.
Oddsmakers and books will also be trimming their totals when it comes to games with playoff implications down the stretch. The final 10-15 games on a projected playoff team’s schedule could have slimmer numbers when taking on foes also battling for postseason position. “We take a wait and see approach with a lot of things like this,” noted Korner. “And if you weren’t betting the Under, then maybe you missed the boat.”
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NBA: A Tale Of Two Halves
With only two games separating the #7 seed from the #12 seed in the East and only two and half games separating #3 from #7 in the West, will we see a major power shift in the near future with the health of the Oklahoma City Thunder starting to round out? Or will San Antonio begin another run of Western Conference dominance in a late season push? Many questions are left to be answered.
Recently the Knicks were informed they will be without the likes of forward Carmelo Anthony for the remainder of the season, the good news is the Knicks are 10-43 coming out of All-Star Weekend and currently in the battle for lottery picks with the Los Angeles Lakers (13-40) and the 76ers (12-41). Luckily for us, however, there are still some teams out there looking to fight for something other than the 1st pick.
With M.V.P. talks heating up and division matchups in the fore front, all we can do is enjoy the games and patiently wait for our 2015 NBA Playoff seeding (April 15th), at which point we can all debate who will be crowned winners of the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy in 2015.
With action picking back up tonight in the association, look for an array of solid selections and pick packages available – “Get the most sought after plays in the industry today!" Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get our most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00... “You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
P.S. If you're looking to acquire the extra insider edge, look no further than our Daily StatSystems NBA & NCAA College Basketball Reports providing you the most up to date information on injuries, line moves, in-game betting and everything sports betting related.
Best of luck in the 2nd half -Stan!
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Inside the Paint – Friday
•Hot Teams
-- 76ers covered seven of last eight games (4-4 SU). Pacers won four of their last five games (3-4 AF).
-- Toronto won nine of last eleven games (3-8 last 11 HF). Hawks are 3-3 since their 19-game win streak (1-4 last five HF).
-- Bulls won their last four games (6-3 last nine AF).
-- Cleveland won 14 of its last 16 games (5-3 last eight AF).
-- Rockets won seven of last ten games (5-6 AU). Dallas won six of its last nine games (4-8-1 last 13 HF).
-- Bucks won eight of their last nine games (1-5 last six HF).
-- Portland won four of its last five games (4-6-1 AF).
-- Celtics won four of their last five games (10-1 last 11 AU).
-- Spurs won seven of their last ten games (5-3 AU). Golden State won six of its last seven games (10-2-1 last 13 HF).
•Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost ten of its last twelve games (1-5 last six HU). Pelicans lost four of last five games (1-5 last six AF).
-- Detroit lost seven of last eleven games (4-7-2 HU).
-- Miami lost six of last eight games; Bosh is in hospital (flu) (4-0 AF). Knicks lost last five games (4-0 last four HU).
-- Suns lost five of last six games, made lot of trades yesterday (0-3-1 last four AU). Minnesota is 3-5 in its last eight games (2-3 HF).
-- Washington lost six of its last eight games (2-2 HU).
-- Nuggets lost six of their last seven games (5-10-1 last 16 AU).
-- Jazz lost six of its last nine games (7-8 HU).
-- Kings lost five of their last six games (1-7 last eight HF).
-- Nets lost their last three games (2-1 AF). Lakers lost their last six games (2-5 last seven HU).
•Totals
-- Five of last six Orlando home games stayed under; six of last seven New Orleans games went over.
-- Ten of last twelve Philly home games stayed under; four of last five Indiana games went over.
-- Five of last six Atlanta home games went over total.
-- Last four Chicago road games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Miami road games went over.
-- Four of last five Phoenix road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Washington home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Dallas home games stayed under.
-- Three of last four Milwaukee home games went over.
-- Five of last seven Utah home games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Sacramento games.
-- Five of last six Golden State home games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Lakers home games stayed under.
•Series Records
-- Pelicans won seven of last nine games with Orlando.
-- 76ers lost four of last five games with Indiana.
-- Raptors won three of last four games with Atlanta.
-- Bulls won 22 of last 24 games with Detroit (4-2 in last six).
-- New York lost its last five games with the Heat.
-- Suns won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Cavaliers won six of last nine games with Washington.
-- Rockets won their last four games with Dallas.
-- Bucks lost their last eight games with Denver.
-- Trailblazers won their last five games with Utah.
-- Celtics won three of last four games with Sacramento.
-- Spurs won their last seven games with Golden State.
-- Lakers won ten of last eleven games with Brooklyn.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Spurs are 4-5 on road if they played the night before.
-- Dallas is 5-7 vs. spread if it played the night before.
•Trends Of The Day
-- The Trail Blazers are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.18 ppg) since April 26th, 2010 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.
-- The Warriors are 10-0 ATS (11.75 ppg) since November 21st, 2014 at home after Stephen Curry was the Warriors’ high scorer.
-- The Hawks are 12-0 ATS (8.08 ppg) at home with rest after a loss in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds.
-- The Lakers are 10-0 Over/Under (12.20 ppg) since November 16th, 2012 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they scored 10 or fewer fast break points.
-- The Rockets are 10-0-1 Over/Under (9.45 ppg) since November 5th, 2013 on the road after James Harden had a negative plus/minus on the road.
•East vs. West
-- SU: West 168-116 ATS: West 141-140-3
-- East teams HF vs. West: 40-37
-- East teams HU vs. West: 32-37
-- West teams HF vs. East: 55-59-3
-- West teams HU vs. East: 12-11
•Situational Trends of The Day
--TORONTO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 102.0, OPPONENT 99.6.
--MIAMI is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 95.0, OPPONENT 93.9.
--ORLANDO is 3-21 (-20.2 Units) against the money line after playing a home game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 92.9, OPPONENT 101.6.
--ATLANTA is 21-7 (+13.2 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 51.4, OPPONENT 46.2.
--SAN ANTONIO is 20-3 UNDER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 48.9, OPPONENT 43.6.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
--DETROIT is 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 97.7, OPPONENT 104.7.
--BROOKLYN is 29-12 UNDER (+15.8 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was BROOKLYN 93.3, OPPONENT 99.5.
--SAN ANTONIO is 13-1 (+13.5 Units) against the money line versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 107.5, OPPONENT 93.3.
--NEW YORK is 22-6 (+15.4 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 52.1, OPPONENT 45.9.
--LA LAKERS are 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 45.5, OPPONENT 51.1.
Situational Analysis of The Day
--Play On - Favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (SACRAMENTO) – a dominant rebounding team (>=+5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game), after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
(29-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.3%, +25.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 107.5, Opponent 100.1 (Average point differential = +7.4)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +8.0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-2, +19.3 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (70-33, +21.4 units).
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Friday's Tip Sheet
Systems Analyst William Stillman
•Raptors @ Hawks – 7:30 PM EST
Atlanta put together a remarkable 19-game winning streak through December and January, but the Hawks have split their past six contests. Mike Budenholtzer’s club won 12 straight away games during that hot stretch, including a 110-89 blowout of the Raptors as two-point favorites on January 16 to beat Toronto for the first time in three meetings this season. However, the Hawks have stumbled on the highway of late, losing three of their past four away from Philips Arena, while scoring 88 points or less in defeats at Memphis and Boston.
The Raptors finished the first half on a three-game winning streak, which included victories over the Spurs, Clippers, and Wizards at home. Since getting blown out at home by the Hawks in mid-January, Dwane Casey’s squad captured wins in 10 of their next 14 games to put the Atlantic Division race out of reach. Since a disastrous end to a West Coast trip in early January with three straight losses, Toronto has won five of its past six road contests, while cashing the ‘over’ in each of the last three away games (two of those games did go to overtime).
•Bulls @ Pistons – 7:30 PM EST
The All-Star break benefited the Bulls by giving budding star Jimmy Butler a few more days of rest after suffering a shoulder injury in a collision against Sacramento last week. Hopefully the hiatus for Chicago didn’t ruin any of its momentum, as the Bulls are riding a four-game winning streak since a three-game skid. Chicago’s defense has stepped up during this hot stretch by limiting all four opponents to 98 points or less, while finishing ‘under’ the total in five of the past six games.
The Pistons made several moves at the trade deadline, which includes acquiring Reggie Jackson from the Thunder to replace the injured Brandon Jennings at point guard for the remainder of the season. Detroit split its final eight games before the All-Star break, as the Pistons have lost each of their past two home contests to the Spurs and Wolves. These two old rivals haven’t seen each other since November, as the Bulls held off the Pistons at the United Center, 102-91 as 9 ½-point favorites.
•Cavaliers @ Wizards – 8:00 PM EST
Cleveland stubbed its toe in the final game before the break in a 113-98 defeat at Chicago, but the Cavaliers have found their groove with victories in 14 of their last 16 trips to the court. Unfortunately for David Blatt’s squad, those two setbacks came on the highway to the Bulls and Pacers, but the Cavs have won eight of their previous 12 road games with LeBron James in the lineup. Cleveland and Washington have split a pair of matchups this season, with the home team winning each time by double-digits, including a 91-78 victory by the Wizards at the Verizon Center in November.
The Wizards were pointspread poison to wrap up January and going into early February by failing to cover nine straight games. However, Washington has cashed three consecutive contests, while winning each of its past two home games against Brooklyn and Orlando in blowout fashion. Bradley Beal likely won’t return to the Washington lineup after missing the last three games with a right leg injury, but the Wizards own a 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS record without their starting shooting guard this season.
•Rockets @ Mavericks – 8:30 PM EST
The battle of the Lone Star State takes place at the American Airlines Center as Dallas looks to rebound from a 104-89 loss at Oklahoma City last night to a short-handed Thunder squad. The Mavs were held to 36% shooting, while Rajon Rondo’s return to the lineup didn’t help out Dallas, as the former Boston point guard shot just 2-of-9 from the floor after missing six games with a facial injury. Dallas returns home where it owns a 1-5-2 ATS record in its past eight contests at the AAC, while losing in this span to the Rockets, Clippers, and Grizzlies.
Houston has taken care of Dallas twice at home this season, winning a pair of low-scoring games at the Toyota Center, but the Rockets have dropped three of their last four visits to Big D. Kevin McHale’s club opens up a five-game homestand on Saturday against Toronto, as the Rockets have won four of their last six games away from Houston. The defense didn’t finish the first half on a positive note, allowing at least 108 points in four straight games, resulting in three ‘overs.’
•Spurs @ Warriors – 10:30 PM EST
San Antonio continues its annual “Rodeo Road Trip” as the Spurs play on the second end of a back-to-back following last night’s 119-115 setback to the Clippers as three-point favorites. The Spurs shot 51% from the floor in the loss, while Kawhi Leonard brought that percentage down by himself with a 1-for-11 effort, including 0-for-6 from three-point range. You never know how Gregg Popovich will approach any game from a “resting starters” standpoint, but the Spurs own a 10-5 record with no rest this season, which includes a 113-100 triumph at Golden State as 8 ½-point underdogs back in November.
Golden State put together the best record in the league in the first half at 42-9, but for some reason the Warriors haven’t figured out how to beat the Spurs over the years. The Warriors have lost eight of the past nine matchups with the Spurs, including four straight defeats at Oracle Arena. Steve Kerr’s team ended the first half with a 3-1 road trip, but are home for just tonight’s contest before heading back on the highway for six more games starting Sunday in Indiana. Since losing to San Antonio on November 11, Golden State has won 21 of its last 22 games at home, while covering 16 times in this stretch.
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