David Malinsky
Malinksy kills me ..... i guess i should have posted this...
you truly have to read the write up and look at the score of the game
and just laugh.
I made i good size bet on princeton tonight. I found it hard to buy into all of malinsky BS and the man made the game 12 knowing everything he wrote.
they got 60 tonight with 13 to play in the game.
great write up... love when they are right on.
4* #825 YALE over PRINCETON
Princeton provides a classic example of how power ratings often run
into a wall. By winning games and moving into a position to seriously
compete for the Ivy League title the markets are forced to raise
their assessments, but because of their style of play, there is not a
significant correlation between winning games and getting big
margins. Consider that in opening 5-1 in the Ivies they have averaged
only 55.6 points per game, and have reached 60 only once. Now they
have been elevated to a pointspread range that requires an almost
perfect ride for them to get the cover, and that has us in the game.
As difficult as it is to win by this amount when playing at a snail?s
pace, there is the added weight here of Princeton neither bringing
the freshness to execute flawlessly, nor the mindset to be going
after a margin. The Tigers are in the awkward setting of playing
their fourth game in eight nights, exacerbated by the fact that the
previous two were all draining affairs, and the last two were major
showdown here in Jadwyn vs. Cornell, and at Penn on Tuesday. Last
Friday they trailed in the second half before escaping with a
hard-earned win over Columbia. Then came the bitter 48-45 loss to
Cornell in that showdown for first place on Saturday night. On
Tuesday the margin never got to double figures in that grinder of a
win over Penn. Now there are physical fatigue issues; preparation
difficulties because of having to play that mid-week game; and also
the fact that all they are interested here is the ?W?, since they
have to come right back again and play tomorrow night (hosting Brown).
Meanwhile Yale comes in with far more preparation time to avenge that
earlier home loss, when the Bulldogs had their season-low of points
and shooting percentage, and that helps in terms of breaking down the
intricacies of the Princeton defense. With three SR?s and two JR?s in
the starting lineup, James Jones has the savvy veterans to make good
adjustments, and note how well they have handled the Tiger offense in
the past ? only once in the past eight meetings have they reached 60
points, and the only got to 62 in that one. The Yale SR?s have won
two of three trips to this gym outright in their careers, and in
going 3-0 ATS on the Ivy road this winter they also have a pair of
outright victories. That brings the proper confidence level for them
to be in the hunt all the way in this one, with the slow tempo also
helping to keep their margin from every growing.
4* #803 CLEVELAND/CHARLOTTE Under ( 48% winner on totals )
Now that it looks like both Tyrus Thomas and Theo Ratliff will be in
uniform for the Bobcats tonight (do not underestimate the potential
impact of the latter, since he has played under Larry Brown in the
past and knows his systems well), we have the ?go? signal to get in
play here. Neither the pace nor the efficiency levels are going to be
where the oddsmakers are projecting them for this setting, and it is
not just having the #5 vs. #6 defense and #25 vs. #26 teams in terms
of tempo, this one brings more.
The first two meetings between these teams have played to counts of
179 and 181 this season, and those were major statements about the
pace ? the shooting was actually quite good at 47.5 percent in those
games. The low tallies were nothing new ? since Brown took over on
the Charlotte bench it has been 5-1 run to the Under in the series,
playing to an average of just 177.3. That does not change tonight.
The Bobcats certainly do not want a fast pace, and while Thomas and
Ratliff add a defensive presence to the interior, the loss of Flip
Murray in the process takes away their best bench scoring threat. The
way that they want to win ? grinding away to keep games close and
hoping to steal them in the latter stages ? becomes even more
pronounced now.
Cleveland brings the obvious fatigue issues off of that draining O.T.
loss to Denver lat night, magnified by the fact that it tipped off an
hour later than the usual home starting time for the Cav?s because of
the TNT cameras, and in particular it was an exhausting effort for
LeBron James, who scored 43 points, while dishing out 15 assists and
grabbing 13 rebounds. While we rarely see energy drain from a player
of his level, he was noticeably gassed in the O.T. period last night,
making this a most difficult transition. But the Cavs do not mind
plodding tempos and winning with defense themselves, and while Antawn
Jamison will be a significant offensive presence in time, we will not
expect any early fireworks, since he will don the Cleveland uniform
without having had a full practice with the team.