David Banks
Tonight: December 28,2012
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Double-digit favorites are usually bad bowl bets, but there may be an exception Friday when the Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5, 6-6 ATS) face the Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6, 5-7 ATS) in the Meineke Car Care Bowl at Reliant Stadium in Houston at 9:00 ET on ESPN. These teams may have similar records and they both stumbled home down the stretch, but keep in mind that Texas Tech out of the Big 12 had the 20th toughest schedule in the country according to the Sagarin Ratings while Minnesota went just 2-6 inside a Big Ten Conference that sent a five-loss team in Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl.
Yes the Red Raiders lost four of their last five games, but the four losses came vs. Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor, all of whom would be decided favorites over this Minnesota team. Despite playing in a conference that boasts some of the most powerful offenses in the country, Texas Tech finished 39th in the country in total defense allowing only 367.2 yards per game, which is slightly more yards than Minnesota allowed but vs. much tougher competition. The Red Raiders have the huge edge offensively here as they are one of the aforementioned powerful offenses in the Big 12. Texas Tech ranked 12th in the nation in total offense with 501.4 yards per game and the Raiders were second in passing offense at a phenomenal 361.9 yards though the air. Even more remarkable was the fact that Seth Doege completed 70.4 percent of his passes while throwing for 3934 yards, with 38 touchdown passes against just 14 interceptions. Granted Doege will be throwing against an 11th ranked Minnesota passing defense allowing only 178.5 passing yards per game, but keep in mind that the Golden Gophers do not face passing teams close to this inside the Big Ten.
For what its worth, Minnesota ranked 29th in total defense surrendering 352.7 yards per contest, but again, consider the competition. The Gophers were not even in the same league as the Red Raiders offensively, averaging only 317.5 total yards on a very pedestrian 3.8 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass attempt, and their only two conference wins all season came against Illinois and Purdue, who are not exactly a couple of Big Ten powerhouses. Minnesota has not been without its off-the-field issues either, as its leading wide receiver A.J. Barker left the team prior to the final regular season game claiming mistreatment by coach Jerry Kill in a nasty blog posting, Coach Kill himself suffered a seizure at halftime of the season finale vs. Michigan State and backup quarterback Max Shortell transferred out of the school after losing his starting job to freshman Philip Nelson in the final month of the season. Nelson promptly completed only 50.0 percent of his passes with seven interceptions against six touchdown passes.
Texas Tech is 46-22-1 ATS in its last 69 games following a straight up loss and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game. Minnesota is on an 0-4 ATS run vs. teams with winning records.
Pick: OVER 55.5