STATSYSTEMS REPORT 11/5 cont.
*** CENTRAL FLORIDA (-2.5; O/U 61.5) @ HOUSTON ***
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The UCF Knights will try to remain unbeaten in Conference-USA action when they battle the Houston Cougars this Friday night at Robertson Stadium. The Knights split their first four games down the middle to start the season, but once coach George O'Leary's squad opened league action, the team took off, winning four straight games. The most recent win for UCF, which pushed the team to a flawless 4-0 in conference play, was a solid 49-35 decision over East Carolina.
As for the Cougars, they bounce back from a two-game slide with back-to-back victories over SMU (45-20) and Memphis (56-17). Both those victories came on the road for Houston, but still pushed Coach Kevin Sumlin's team's league mark to 4-1 on the season. This will be the first home game in nearly a month for the Cougars, who are currently 3-1 at Robertson Stadium this year.
The Knights have found success offensively through their devastating rushing attack, which is currently churning out an impressive 199.9 ypg. UCF, which is producing 32.9 ppg, has scored 24 of its 31 offensive touchdowns via the run. At the present moment the leader out of the backfield has been Ronnie Weaver, who seems to improve each week. The tailback has rushed for 638 yards and 10 touchdowns, but the perfect complement to Weaver's play has been the success of quarterback Jeff Godfrey, who is second on the team with 394 yards and five scores. Since the Knights rely so much on their ground game, Godfrey is not called on to make many passes, but when the quarterback to throw the ball he is pretty successful, completing 63.6 percent of his throws.
This past weekend the Knights had little trouble with East Carolina, and once again it was the ground game that did the majority of the damage, as the Knights finished with 265 yards and five touchdowns via the run. Weaver led the way with 180 yards and added two scores, while Latavius Murray found the end zone three times. As for Godfrey, he only tallied 43 rushing yards, but the quarterback did manage to throw for 159 yards and two touchdowns as well.
UCF has the perfect combination for a football team, and that is run the ball with success offensively, while playing flawlessly on defense. Clearly the Knights know how to run the rock, but what has gone unnoticed outside the Conference-USA has been the play of the Knights defensively. UCF is one of the most complete units in the entire nation and comes into this game holding opponents to just 16.5 ppg on a mere 279.9 total ypg.
Coach O'Leary's squad has made it a priority to stop the run, and just like last season this defense has done just that, holding teams to a mere 102.6 ypg on just 3.1 yards per attempt. It there was something that this defense could improve on, it would be its ability to force mistakes, as the unit comes into this contest with just 10 takeaways. Seven of those have come by interception, as the secondary is limiting the opposition to just 177.2 ypg through the air.
However, last week that same secondary surrendered 310 yards and three scores to East Carolina. The Pirates were playing from behind for most of the game and did attempt 54 passes, and those two reasons would likely explain the high totals. What was shocking in that defense for Coach O'Leary allowed ECU to churn out 4.3 yards per attempt, en route to 111 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
The Cougars are a well oiled machine offensively, and portrays one of the more balanced attacks in the nation. The Cougars are churning out 169.4 ypg on the ground, and that is clearly a respectable number, but the ground game has played second fiddle to the passing attack, which is producing 299.2 ypg through the air. To further show how balanced this attack has been, coach Sumlin's team has scored 20 TDs on the ground, and another 21 scores via the pass.
Leading the team on the ground has been Bryce Beall, who has rumbled for 638 yards and 12 scores, while Michael Hayes has contributed 360 yards and eight TDs. When Case Keenum went down with a knee injury few thought the Cougars would be able to survive with David Piland. However, the offense has soared under the young signal caller, who has thrown for 1,108 yards and 11 scores. The main option for Piland has been Patrick Edwards, who is leading the team in receptions (42), yards (639) and touchdowns (8).
The last time Houston was on the field the team absolutely demolished Memphis, totaling 651 yards. Hayes led the team on the ground with 123 yards and one touchdown, but the game belonged to Piland, who threw for 292 yards and five touchdowns. Edwards hauled in two touchdowns in the win and finished with 78 yards on four catches.
Not all is well for the Cougars however, as coach Sumlin's team has been vulnerable defensively. Houston comes into this matchup allowing 28.0 ppg, and the biggest concern has been the team's play against the run, as opponents are gashing Houston for 194.2 ypg. Out of the 28 touchdowns allowed by this unit, 17 have come via the run.
Two of those 17 rushing touchdowns came this past weekend, as the Tigers found no trouble running the ball against Houston. Memphis churned out 229 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per attempt and the success for Memphis is even more concerning since they Tigers were playing from behind for most of the contest. Even though Houston easily won, this week's contest against a tough UCF squad could really exploit this defense's inability to stop the run.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Home side won all three Central Florida-Houston games; Knights lost in only visit here, 51-31; average total in series meetings is 70.3. UCF won its last four games, converting 31-50 on 3rd down; they're 5-1 as a fave, 2-0 on road, winning away games by 14-35-21 points. Houston is using its #3 QB, but scored 101 points in winning last two games, both on the road. Last three Central Florida games went over the total.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - C Florida by 2; O/U 62
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Houston -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - C Florida -3.46
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 37-58 ATS (-26.8 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 28.2, OPPONENT 33.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 27.4, OPPONENT 33.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 27.1, OPPONENT 33.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 50.8, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCF is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UCF 28.7, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--UCF is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UCF 35.2, OPPONENT 17.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--UCF is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UCF 23.9, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 44.1, OPPONENT 35.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 44.5, OPPONENT 31.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCF is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCF 23.5, OPPONENT 33.2 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 28.0, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 11-3 against the 1rst half line (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 26.6, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 31.3, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCF is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.8 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCF 13.1, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCF is 13-3 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCF 12.2, OPPONENT 9.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCF is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCF 14.5, OPPONENT 7.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 17.2, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (UCF) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, in the second half of the season.
(29-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 20.3, Opponent 13.8 (Total first half points scored = 34.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (34-10).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites (UCF) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 42 points or more last game.
(33-9 since 1992.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (20-23)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.3
The average score in these games was: Team 25.8, Opponent 25.3 (Average point differential = +0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (UCF) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games.
(44-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 59.5
The average score in these games was: Team 39.9, Opponent 26.1 (Total points scored = 66)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 31 (53.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (72-42).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (78-54).