Service Plays Friday 11/21/08

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Pro Sports Plays--

Friday Football

Take Bowling Green (-4) over Buffalo
(10* Top Play)
6:00 PM EST

Buffalo has lost 60 of the last 69 road games and they have also lost 84 of the last 101 games as an underdog. Buffalo is allowing an average of 31 points a game on defense in road games this season.



Take Toledo (-3) over Miami-OH
(10* Top Play)
7:00 PM EST

Miami has lost 7 of the last 8 games coming off a home loss and they have also lost 9 of the last 10 games when playing on artificial turf. Miami has lost 19 of the last 24 games as an underdog and they are only averaging 16 points a game on offense in road games this season.




Take Fresno State (-3.5) over San Jose State
(10* Top Play)
9:30 PM EST

San Jose State has lost 18 of the last 22 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and they have also lost 9 of the last 11 games coming off three or more consecutive losses against the spread. San Jose State has lost 10 of the last 15 games coming off an OVER the total and they are only averaging 15 points a game on offense over the last 3 games.
 

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Tom Fresse

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20* Wac GOM

San Jose St is in a 40-16 ATS System that says to Play On any team who is off a conference loss by 21 or more points if they have won between 51% to 60% of their games this year. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS their last 14 lined home games. Fresno St is 1-9 ATS in all games this year and they are 0-7 ATS their last 7 games as favorites. The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games and they are 0-8 ATS off one or more straight ATS losses. 20* WAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON SAN JOSE ST
 

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Bestsportspicks

NBA - Den/Lal over 205
CHI. +3.5
NCAAFB - Bowling Green -4
Miami-Oh - +3
 

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Andre Gomes

NBA - 505 Orlando Magic @ 506 Indiana Pacers

In order to elaborate a pick, as I’ve referred before, I need 3 essential factors which together give me enough confidence to make a play: emotional edge, matchups edge and value on the line. We have in here a case where the 3 factors together favor an high affair game and we have also a very good price in here. Both the Pacers and Magic are coming from good wins. The Pacers easily defeated the Hawks by 113-96, while Orlando defeated the Raptors by 103-90. So, we are in front of two teams that are without confidence and which will try to play a good game today. Both teams like to play on a fast tempo game trying to spread the floor on the offense. For some reason, Orlando is the second on the league in 3pts attempts, with 24.7 per game and the Pacers are fifth with 20.0 attempts, so it will be normal that we will see some 3pts shots being made tonight, as with both teams being confident, it won’t hard for them to score some of those attempts.

On the other side, the presence of Dwight Howard will make the Pacers set up an even higher than usual pace, having in account the team just can’t stop him. I remember Howard had 26-39 FG against the Pacers last season! 66.6% FG! And Howard will come fired up for this game, as he hasn’t been playing well lately. He had the worst game of his career against the Bobcats (foul trouble the whole game) and against the Raptors, he was well defended by Bosh and O’Neal. The Pacers don’t have any solutions to stop Howard and the team is actually coming from a game where they allowed just 28 points against the Hawks in the paint. But you have to note that Josh Smith was out, Al Horford played for just 7 minutes and Marvin Williams is now more an outside shooter. That won’t happen tonight for sure, with Howard in the court.

The Pacers last season had to raise the pace of their game against the Magic, in order to be competitive and the result of that was the three games of the series ending with 224, 236 and 233 points. Today this game will have the same conditions and only a very bad night in terms of FG% will prevent both teams from scoring more than 100 points each. At last, we have the question of the value. We are talking about a game which line was at 205.5 points and now we can find it just a little bit above 200 points, so I’m taking the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 505/506 Over 201,5 @1.97 on 5Dimes
 

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hey guys... trade alert:
The New York Knicks have agreed in principle to send power forward Zach Randolph to the Los Angeles Clippers, two league sources said Friday afternoon.

The Clippers would send Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley to the Knicks for Randolph and guard Mardy Collins.

The knicks also dealt Crawford for Al Harrington earlier today. Stay away from these games !!
 

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Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Mississippi Rebels @ Utah Utes - Friday November 21, 2008 6:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Utah Utes +2 (-110) (Normal)

Yes, I know the Utes are playing an SEC team but as you know I follow the SEC very closely. I need to have very good reasoning and motivation for a particular team to make a play as I simply do not make many plays. Having said that, did you know that Utah has a new coach in Coach Boylen. He used to be the Assistant Coach at Michigan State under Tom Izzo and was with the Houston Rockets before that as assistant coach when this team won their respective championships. The guy is just 41 years old! He is a great coach and has great wisdom of the game. Utah is 1-1 and this is the first big game of the year at home and you better believe that the 10th winningest program in college basketball history will be fired up for this game in a big way. I look for these young Utah players, 5 of which are freshman recruits, as well as the fourt returning starters to make a difference today. Remember, this is this Ole Miss's squad's first road game. These two teams have no history of playing each other and although Ole Miss is 2-0, they were both home wins against South Alabama and Arkansas State. Utah just destroyed Wisconsin Green-Bay 79-60. Let's roll with the Running Utes as if they get a lead early they might not just look back in this game as they will look to bury the Rebels early.


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Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks - Friday November 21, 2008 8:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 209.5 (-110) (Normal)

I like the under here for several reasons. For one, you might already be aware but Jamal Crawford has been traded to Golden State for Al Harrington. That certainly makes for an interesting dynamic for this game. Usually it takes a team a bit prior to that individual getting set with his new team and gel with them. Take for example A.I. when the Pistons lost to the Nets in game one of his new start with his team. Such is the case here. The Bucks are good folks. Remember, the Bucks beat the Knicks in game 1 earlier this year. There were many that got onto to the Knicks for that loss, but the Bucks are better than most people give them credit for. They defeated the Knicks 94-86 in that game on the road. The Bucks are a defensive team - heck, they held the Celtics to 102 points at home in overtime. They held San Antonio to 78 points and Phoenix to 104 points in regulation. Why can they not hold the Knicks to around a 100 if less considering they have a new rotation so to speak tonight. Plus, the Bucks come off a tough road trip which included Utah and Denver. The Bucks play overs on the road and unders at home as it is much more of their pace. Look for this game to be around the high 190's.


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Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Fresno State Bulldogs @ San Jose State Spartans - Friday November 21, 2008 9:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: San Jose State Spartans +3.5 (-105) (Normal)

You ever wonder why some lines are 3.5? Gosh, why not just make it an even field goal right? Well, it is because Vegas increases their edge. In essence, an increase in the shaved dice in order for them to win more likely when you butt heads. Consequently, that is what you have here. Look, would you rather take a Fresno State team that although is 4-1 on the road, still hits the highway for a nationally televised game at night, with 2/3rds of the public on them, who has MISSED 9 STRAIGHT COVERS, beat La Tech by a field goal when favored by -4.5, beat Utah State by 2 when favored by 16, beat UCLA by 5 when favored by a touchdown and who beat Toledo by 1 when favored by 6 - or would you rather bet on a San Jose State team that is not backed by the public, who is at home for this game, who has revenge from a 0-30 to this team last year, who comes off an ugly 17-41 loss at Nevada and who has a top 30 defense in many categories in the league? The bottom line is, let's take the better defense, as good defense has the edge over good offense in my opinion, plus tack on the fact of the home field advantage and revenge with Fresno State one of the worst cover teams of 2008-2009, I will gladly take San Jose State to get it done here at home. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS when following a game they allowed more than 40 points.
 

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ROOT

Chairman- San Jose St
Millionaire- Cal Irvine
Insiders Circle- Middle Tennessee
 

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BIG AL's 100% (10-0) FRIDAY NITE FOOTBALL CRUSHER

3* Bowling Green

Confirmed

Big Al- Friday Final

3* Chicago+4 (nba) caution, chicago on long road trip
3* Sacramento+4.5 (nba)
3* Bowling Green-3.5 (ncaaf)
 

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Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Bowling Green (-4) over Buffalo (NCAA Power Play)
6:00 PM EST

Bowling Green
• 10-3 ATS after allowing 9 points or less in the last game
• 6-2 ATS over the last 8 games
• 4-1 SU vs. Buffalo the last 5 games

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10* Take Toledo (-3) over Miami-OH (NCAA Power Play)
7:00 PM EST

Toledo
• 5-0 ATS coming off a two game road trip the last 3 seasons
• 3-0 SU & ATS coming off two consecutive road losses
• 6-1 ATS after having lost 4 of the last 5 games

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10* Take Fresno State (-3.5) over San Jose State (NCAA Power Play)
9:30 PM EST

Fresno State
• 12-1 SU vs. San Jose State since 1992
• 3-0 SU coming off an UNDER the total this season
• 15-3 SU coming off a conference win by 7 points or less
 

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#531 Tennessee Volunteers -10 1/2

4-Units (7:00 P.M. CST)

Middle Tennessee St. may be thinking major revenge after the Volunteers routed them 109-40 last season. The Tennessee Volunteers have had no trouble scoring in their first two outings, ripping Tennessee Chattanooga 114-75 and pasting Tennessee Martin 91-64. The Volunteers have won 6 straight over the Blue Raiders, with the last 4 wins being by double digits. Let's not forget the the Volunteers are the number 14 ranked team in the country and that the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have lost 18 straight to ranked opponents dating back to 1996. The Volunteers roll in their first road test of the season.

Take the Tennessee Volunteers -10 1/2 for 4-Units.



Trends worth Considering:

Volunteers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Sun Belt.



Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Blue Raiders are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.



Thanks and Good Luck

Slade

Southcoast Sports
 

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Seabass
NCAAF
30* San Jose St

NBA
20*Boston
20*Dallas
20*Charlotte

NCAAB
30*Mississippi
 

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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>The Consensus Group</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Friday, November 21, 2008
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</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>11/21/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>6000* COLLEGE HOOPS INSIDERS WINNER
539 Notre Dame -23 10:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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Cajun-Sports CFB Executive -Friday

CFB: 35-26 ATS (+2380) SportsMonitor

FRIDAY 11/21/2008

9:30 PM EST - ESPN2

4 STAR SELECTION

SAN JOSE STATE +3½ over Fresno State

Teams in the Western Athletic Conference continue to jockey for possible postseason positioning, as the Bulldogs pay a visit to the Spartans Friday night. Fresno State is off a lackluster 24-17 win over New Mexico State last weekend. Meanwhile, San Jose State has dropped from first place in the WAC into a tie for fourth with Hawaii at 4-3 following a 41-17 thumping by Nevada last weekend.

The Bulldogs started off the season with hopes of winning the WAC and being a BCS buster, but since suffering a loss to Wisconsin the team has struggled greatly. Injuries have also decimated this team as:

RB Ryan Mathews has missed three games and parts of three others, including all of last week's victory against New Mexico State . Mathews is doubtful;

RB Lonyae Miller had two rushes, including one fumble, against New Mexico State . He aggravated the injury in pre-game warm-ups. Pat Hill said he looked hesitant;

WR Marlon Moore has missed five games and parts of two others;

LG Devan Cunningham is questionable for San Jose State after missing last week's game;

Marvin Haynes, DL Chris Lewis and DL Logan Harrell are all doubtful;

TE Issac Kinter could be out for the season, Hill said;

KR/CB A.J. Jefferson is questionable for Friday night's game. He missed last week's game with New Mexico State .

These injuries have hurt Fresno State’s running game and allowed teams to run wild on them, which brings us to one of our handicapping strategies that applies here, as we like to play AGAINST a favorite that is allowing more than 5 yards per rush on the season from October on.

We also like to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.

Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happened a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number. That’s exactly what has happened here, as the Bulldogs are now favored by more than a FG as we release this Star Selection.

The Bulldogs also have some very ugly numbers staring them in the face here, as they are 0-18 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a favorite of 2-28 points off an ATS loss/push, 0-8 ATS vs. opponents off a SU loss since last year, 0-8 ATS (-12.4 ppg) on the road and not an underdog of 14+ points off 2 home games vs. an opponent off a SU & ATS loss, 0-9 ATS the last 9 games this year, and 0-9 ATS as a favorite going back to last season.

Their difficulty in covering a spread since the season’s first game has qualified them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a road favorite off 6 ATS losses vs. an opponent not seeking revenge for a SU & ATS loss as an underdog of more than 9 points in each of the past 2 seasons.

Since 1996, these teams are 0-12 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 2 TDs per game on average. The Bulldogs were the most recent active “Play AGAINST” team in their meeting with Louisiana Tech a few weeks ago. Fresno was a road favorite of 4½ points, but lost 38-35.

Meanwhile, San Jose State is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog and not off 3 SU & ATS wins. Fresno State is one of their most-hated rivals. We look for the Spartans to regain their from earlier in the season and give the Bulldogs fits here. The host is 5-0 ATS (+10 ppg) in this series when not an underdog of 26+ points, and we look for that streak to continue with an outright home underdog victory.


PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SAN JOSE STATE 34 FRESNO STATE 30
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