Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Fri, 11/20/09 - 8:35 PM !double-dime bet 515 CHL 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 516 MIL Analysis: Stan is Betting CHARLOTTE. Stan notes that even though Charlotte is on a losing streak they have been very competitive in recent games. Milwaukee has been winning against lesser foes. I am betting Charlo�tte tonight plus the points as I actually have them winning outright. TAKE CHARLOTTE as STAN'S NBA WISE GUY GAME OF THEWEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
BOWLING GREEN -10
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on Bowling Green:
The Zips can only look forward instead of pointing fingers and looking back. Akron jumped out to a 17-7 lead over Temple, but allowed the Owls to score 49 unanswered points en route to a 56-17 win. With several players sidelined due to injuries and numerous inexperienced players forced to take the field, the Zips fell victim to a lack of depth and I'm expecting a similar collapse this evening.
The Zips have had to play quarterback roulette with the senior starter being dismissed from the team and the No. 2 sidelined with an anterior cruciate ligament injury.
Akron has been decent against the pass so far, but is going to have its hands full with Freddie Barnes; the BGSU star leads the country with 117 receptions and ranks second with 1,285 yards receiving.
Not only is Akron 1-7 SU its last eight, its also 2-6 ATS its last eight and a horrible 2-5 ATS its last seven on the road.
On the other side of the field:
With two games remaining in the regular season, Bowling Green is in position to have a winning season and become bowl-eligible.
QB Tyler Sheehan is 298-of-465 passing for 3,189 yards and 19 TD's with only six INT's.
The Falcons had their best defensive effort of the season against Miami on Nov. 12, limiting the RedHawks to 295 yards of total offense, just 36 yards on the ground, and two touchdowns.
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU its last five and is 5-1 ATS its last six vs. Akron.
Bottom line: I expect the Falcons defense to continue to play at the same level and believe that their offense will also continues its effective production; look for BOWLING GREEN to improve to 4-3 ATS vs. conference opponents and for Akron to fall to 2-5 ATS against conference foes.
*9* BOWLING GREEN.[/FONT]
BOWLING GREEN -10
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on Bowling Green:
The Zips can only look forward instead of pointing fingers and looking back. Akron jumped out to a 17-7 lead over Temple, but allowed the Owls to score 49 unanswered points en route to a 56-17 win. With several players sidelined due to injuries and numerous inexperienced players forced to take the field, the Zips fell victim to a lack of depth and I'm expecting a similar collapse this evening.
The Zips have had to play quarterback roulette with the senior starter being dismissed from the team and the No. 2 sidelined with an anterior cruciate ligament injury.
Akron has been decent against the pass so far, but is going to have its hands full with Freddie Barnes; the BGSU star leads the country with 117 receptions and ranks second with 1,285 yards receiving.
Not only is Akron 1-7 SU its last eight, its also 2-6 ATS its last eight and a horrible 2-5 ATS its last seven on the road.
On the other side of the field:
With two games remaining in the regular season, Bowling Green is in position to have a winning season and become bowl-eligible.
QB Tyler Sheehan is 298-of-465 passing for 3,189 yards and 19 TD's with only six INT's.
The Falcons had their best defensive effort of the season against Miami on Nov. 12, limiting the RedHawks to 295 yards of total offense, just 36 yards on the ground, and two touchdowns.
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU its last five and is 5-1 ATS its last six vs. Akron.
Bottom line: I expect the Falcons defense to continue to play at the same level and believe that their offense will also continues its effective production; look for BOWLING GREEN to improve to 4-3 ATS vs. conference opponents and for Akron to fall to 2-5 ATS against conference foes.
*9* BOWLING GREEN.[/FONT]
Bob Balfe
UTAH STATE +23.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Utah State has improved a lot on offense since last year and can run the ball very well. Boise does have a good defense and Utah State knows they will need to control the clock by running the ball if they have any shot at winning. I think most people know they have zero shot of winning. Boise has to be getting frustrated as they win big each week, but will not climb too much higher in the polls. I also am not too impressed with this good Broncos Defense the last two weeks and they have let up a good number of points. This is a type of game that will move fast. Look for Utah State to do just enough to cover this number in their final home game of the year. Take Utah State.[/FONT]
UTAH STATE +23.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Utah State has improved a lot on offense since last year and can run the ball very well. Boise does have a good defense and Utah State knows they will need to control the clock by running the ball if they have any shot at winning. I think most people know they have zero shot of winning. Boise has to be getting frustrated as they win big each week, but will not climb too much higher in the polls. I also am not too impressed with this good Broncos Defense the last two weeks and they have let up a good number of points. This is a type of game that will move fast. Look for Utah State to do just enough to cover this number in their final home game of the year. Take Utah State.[/FONT]
Ron Raymond
MINNESOTA WILD -135
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Keys to selection: The Wild got caught in a first game off a long road trip trap vs. Phoenix on Wednesday and they are currently riding a 4 game losing streak. After doing some research, when you have a home favorite at home coming off a 4 game losing streak the last 2 seasons, the home fave (Min) is 42-25 SU in this situation for 62.6%.
Database Tip: When MINNESOTA team played as a home team - Total is 5.5 - Allowed 3 or more goals AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite; the Wild are 10-1 SU in this situation. Take the Wild.[/FONT]
MINNESOTA WILD -135
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Keys to selection: The Wild got caught in a first game off a long road trip trap vs. Phoenix on Wednesday and they are currently riding a 4 game losing streak. After doing some research, when you have a home favorite at home coming off a 4 game losing streak the last 2 seasons, the home fave (Min) is 42-25 SU in this situation for 62.6%.
Database Tip: When MINNESOTA team played as a home team - Total is 5.5 - Allowed 3 or more goals AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite; the Wild are 10-1 SU in this situation. Take the Wild.[/FONT]
Evan Altemus
Magic/Celtics UNDER 192
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This total is set at the same level as last season, despite the Celtics having Kevin Garnett back in the line-up. Garnett is essential to the defense and his presence causes games to go well under the total, especially these featured games against the best teams in the NBA. Last season’s playoff series between these two teams had five of seven games go under the total. Orlando will also be without their star point guard Jameer Nelson. He is a huge key to the offense, as everything goes through him on the offensive end. Look for both teams to play great defense, and this game will be played at a slower pace. Take the under.
4 UNIT SELECTION UNDER.[/FONT]
Magic/Celtics UNDER 192
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This total is set at the same level as last season, despite the Celtics having Kevin Garnett back in the line-up. Garnett is essential to the defense and his presence causes games to go well under the total, especially these featured games against the best teams in the NBA. Last season’s playoff series between these two teams had five of seven games go under the total. Orlando will also be without their star point guard Jameer Nelson. He is a huge key to the offense, as everything goes through him on the offensive end. Look for both teams to play great defense, and this game will be played at a slower pace. Take the under.
4 UNIT SELECTION UNDER.[/FONT]
Tony George
DENVER NUGGETS -9
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Wow, Marcus Camby out for the Clippers. In their last home game they lost to Toronto by 15 points, and the Raptors play NO defense and the Clips managed just 89 points against them. Denver is rolling, the Clippers frontcourt has no answer for a red hot Anthony, and the Nuggets are 12-5 ATS their last 17 against the NBA Pacific division. Denver should roll them big time tonight unless they fail to get off the bus!
Play 1 Unit on Denver…thanks and good luck.[/FONT]
DENVER NUGGETS -9
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Wow, Marcus Camby out for the Clippers. In their last home game they lost to Toronto by 15 points, and the Raptors play NO defense and the Clips managed just 89 points against them. Denver is rolling, the Clippers frontcourt has no answer for a red hot Anthony, and the Nuggets are 12-5 ATS their last 17 against the NBA Pacific division. Denver should roll them big time tonight unless they fail to get off the bus!
Play 1 Unit on Denver…thanks and good luck.[/FONT]
Marc Lawrence
BOSTON CELTICS -7
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When the Celtics host the Magic in Beantown Friday night they will do so with major revenge on their minds from being bumped from last year's playoffs by Orlando. Meanwhile, Boston has enjoyed great success as a series host, going 30-10 ATS the last 40 games, including 6-0 ATS during the regular season when the Magic arrives off a same season revenge contest. With the Magic in off a revenge win from a 28-point loss they suffered earlier this season against Oklahoma City, look for the Celtics to get theirs here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Boston. [/FONT]
BOSTON CELTICS -7
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When the Celtics host the Magic in Beantown Friday night they will do so with major revenge on their minds from being bumped from last year's playoffs by Orlando. Meanwhile, Boston has enjoyed great success as a series host, going 30-10 ATS the last 40 games, including 6-0 ATS during the regular season when the Magic arrives off a same season revenge contest. With the Magic in off a revenge win from a 28-point loss they suffered earlier this season against Oklahoma City, look for the Celtics to get theirs here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Boston. [/FONT]
Andre Gomes
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +4.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Milwaukee Bucks have been a pleasant surprise early on the season and with a 6-3 record, they have the 5th best record in the Eastern Conference right now, so we got to give some credit to their head coach Scott Skiles. However, this is a tough spot for them, as they will receive a hungry team who will want to snap their 6-game losing streak.
The Bucks have been playing without Michael Redd and their offense was basically carried over by two players: center Andrew Bogut and rookie Brandon Jennings. They badly needed these two players to deliver consistent performances and that has been the case. However, for this contest and for the next 2-4 weeks Bogut will be out and the Australian has been having a stellar season by averaging 16.2 points per game, while shooting a whopping mark of 56.5% from the field. He is also grabbing 9.2 rebounds per game and averaging 1.6 blocks per game. His absence will be dramatic for the Bucks, as they will have for this contest Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick and Dan Gadzuric and these players are far from the level of Bogut. Brandon Jennings had the attention of the media due to his unbelievable performance last week against the Warriors, in which he scored 55 points, while shooting 23-34 from the field. Nevertheless, I want to remember that only a team like the Warriors who doesn’t know what the word “defense” means would allow him to score 55 points. Note that in the Bucks last game, the Nets did a good job in limiting Jennings, as he ended the game with 19 points (6-13 FG), while committing the same numbers of assists and turnovers: 9!
Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 0-6 in their last 6 games and SF Stephen Jackson has already played two games for the Bobcats. Curiously despite not having good performances in those games, the Bobcats were competitive in both contests, as they lost by 6 points in Orlando and in their last game, they lost in Philadelphia by just 2 points, in a game that they were leading by 84-83 with 30 seconds to go. I expect head coach Larry Brown to bring an assertive game plan to stop Jennings and the superior size of the Bobcats will cause some damages in the undernamed Bucks team.
This is a classic case of one team who is playing above their expectations against a hungry team. In my opinion both teams have legit chances to win this ball game and I believe that the Bobcats have a clear shot in here. Since we are able to get 4.5 points in here, I’m gladly taking the Bobcats tonight in this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Charlotte Bobcats[/FONT]
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +4.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Milwaukee Bucks have been a pleasant surprise early on the season and with a 6-3 record, they have the 5th best record in the Eastern Conference right now, so we got to give some credit to their head coach Scott Skiles. However, this is a tough spot for them, as they will receive a hungry team who will want to snap their 6-game losing streak.
The Bucks have been playing without Michael Redd and their offense was basically carried over by two players: center Andrew Bogut and rookie Brandon Jennings. They badly needed these two players to deliver consistent performances and that has been the case. However, for this contest and for the next 2-4 weeks Bogut will be out and the Australian has been having a stellar season by averaging 16.2 points per game, while shooting a whopping mark of 56.5% from the field. He is also grabbing 9.2 rebounds per game and averaging 1.6 blocks per game. His absence will be dramatic for the Bucks, as they will have for this contest Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick and Dan Gadzuric and these players are far from the level of Bogut. Brandon Jennings had the attention of the media due to his unbelievable performance last week against the Warriors, in which he scored 55 points, while shooting 23-34 from the field. Nevertheless, I want to remember that only a team like the Warriors who doesn’t know what the word “defense” means would allow him to score 55 points. Note that in the Bucks last game, the Nets did a good job in limiting Jennings, as he ended the game with 19 points (6-13 FG), while committing the same numbers of assists and turnovers: 9!
Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 0-6 in their last 6 games and SF Stephen Jackson has already played two games for the Bobcats. Curiously despite not having good performances in those games, the Bobcats were competitive in both contests, as they lost by 6 points in Orlando and in their last game, they lost in Philadelphia by just 2 points, in a game that they were leading by 84-83 with 30 seconds to go. I expect head coach Larry Brown to bring an assertive game plan to stop Jennings and the superior size of the Bobcats will cause some damages in the undernamed Bucks team.
This is a classic case of one team who is playing above their expectations against a hungry team. In my opinion both teams have legit chances to win this ball game and I believe that the Bobcats have a clear shot in here. Since we are able to get 4.5 points in here, I’m gladly taking the Bobcats tonight in this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Charlotte Bobcats[/FONT]
Spartan
UTAH STATE +24
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely going against the herd here as the public loves Boise State and many anticipate a blow out victory here for the Broncos. I realize Boise State is off a blow out victory over Idaho but guys that team also allowed Idaho to rack up over 500 yards of total offense. Utah State is a very well coached team that also has a very respectable offense, they currently are ranked 20th in the land in total offense and they are catching Boise State in their own place in the national spotlight. Broncos are over valued here in my opinion and I look for Utah State to finish this thing within the number.[/FONT]
UTAH STATE +24
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Likely going against the herd here as the public loves Boise State and many anticipate a blow out victory here for the Broncos. I realize Boise State is off a blow out victory over Idaho but guys that team also allowed Idaho to rack up over 500 yards of total offense. Utah State is a very well coached team that also has a very respectable offense, they currently are ranked 20th in the land in total offense and they are catching Boise State in their own place in the national spotlight. Broncos are over valued here in my opinion and I look for Utah State to finish this thing within the number.[/FONT]
Lenny Del Genio
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -2.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We're excited about this Oklahoma City team. After last year's 3-29 SU start, they are a respectable 26-36 and have started .500 this season. They have already taken the Lakers to OT, upset the Magic and beat the Spurs when they had both Tim Duncan and Tony Parker in the lineup. Washington just won for the first time in seven games and is in an obvious letdown spot here after beating the Cavs Wednesday night. They are 17-38-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. The addition of Maurice Cheeks to the Thunder coaching staff has been a big plus. So too has been the improved bench play to go along with stars Durant, Green and Westbrook. This is now a top-eight defense. The last two seasons, the Wizards are 3-18 ATS when taking or getting less than three points. Take Oklahoma City. [/FONT]
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -2.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We're excited about this Oklahoma City team. After last year's 3-29 SU start, they are a respectable 26-36 and have started .500 this season. They have already taken the Lakers to OT, upset the Magic and beat the Spurs when they had both Tim Duncan and Tony Parker in the lineup. Washington just won for the first time in seven games and is in an obvious letdown spot here after beating the Cavs Wednesday night. They are 17-38-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. The addition of Maurice Cheeks to the Thunder coaching staff has been a big plus. So too has been the improved bench play to go along with stars Durant, Green and Westbrook. This is now a top-eight defense. The last two seasons, the Wizards are 3-18 ATS when taking or getting less than three points. Take Oklahoma City. [/FONT]
Karl Garrett 11/20
20 DIMER - BOISE STATE BRONCOS
On the surface this looks like an "inflated" number against a Utah State team that has some offense, and should be able to trade points for a while with the yielding Broncos.
Still, my money is on Boise to handle matters on the road, as the Broncs have done a nice job when laying the big wood recently, sporting an 8-3-1 mark as a favorite of 20-points or more their last 12 tries.
Boise State is playing for a spot in a BCS bowl game, and there has been plenty of talk that they are not worthy of a spot based on some of their wins showing the opposition with big chunks of yards.
My gut tells me the public will jump all over this "inflated" price, but in the end Boise will cover this impost.
The Broncos are 7-0 straight up the last 7 series meetings, and have gone 6-0-1 against the spread in that span.
Make it 8-0, and 7-0-1 boys!
10 DIMER - BOSTON CELTICS
1st meeting since Orlando took out Boston in a 7th game blowout last May in the postseason, and I am liking the Celtics to get some regular season revenge.
Boston has been slumping, splitting their last 6 straight up, while going just 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games, but Orlando is now without Jameer Nelson, and the Magic are definitely going to miss his presence tonight.
Orlando is just 5-14 against the spread their last 19 in Beantown, and the host is on a 25-12 spread run the last 27 series meetings.
Boston rights their ship with the cover tonight.
Lay it!
20 DIMER - BOISE STATE BRONCOS
On the surface this looks like an "inflated" number against a Utah State team that has some offense, and should be able to trade points for a while with the yielding Broncos.
Still, my money is on Boise to handle matters on the road, as the Broncs have done a nice job when laying the big wood recently, sporting an 8-3-1 mark as a favorite of 20-points or more their last 12 tries.
Boise State is playing for a spot in a BCS bowl game, and there has been plenty of talk that they are not worthy of a spot based on some of their wins showing the opposition with big chunks of yards.
My gut tells me the public will jump all over this "inflated" price, but in the end Boise will cover this impost.
The Broncos are 7-0 straight up the last 7 series meetings, and have gone 6-0-1 against the spread in that span.
Make it 8-0, and 7-0-1 boys!
10 DIMER - BOSTON CELTICS
1st meeting since Orlando took out Boston in a 7th game blowout last May in the postseason, and I am liking the Celtics to get some regular season revenge.
Boston has been slumping, splitting their last 6 straight up, while going just 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games, but Orlando is now without Jameer Nelson, and the Magic are definitely going to miss his presence tonight.
Orlando is just 5-14 against the spread their last 19 in Beantown, and the host is on a 25-12 spread run the last 27 series meetings.
Boston rights their ship with the cover tonight.
Lay it!
