Statsystems cfb report 11/19
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/19
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - CFB *****
*** FRESNO STATE @ BOISE STATE (-30.5, O/U 68.5) ***
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Yet again the Friday night spotlight shines on Boise State, as the third-ranked Broncos take the field at home against the Fresno State Bulldogs in Western Athletic Conference action. For the fifth time since 2004, the Broncos have a 9-0 record, making them one of four teams still undefeated at the Football Bowl Subdivision level and only one of two programs without a blemish outside of the automatic BCS qualifying conferences, the other being TCU over in the Mountain West Conference.
Boise State is currently riding a 23-game win streak, which is not only a school record but also the longest active streak in the nation at the moment. Coming at number four in the most recent BCS rankings, the Broncos have not trailed in a game since the season opener against Virginia Tech and again proved their prowess last week when they demolished in-state and conference rival Idaho on the road in a 52-14 final inside the Kibbie Dome to capture the Governor's Cup.
As for the Bulldogs, they are currently sitting in fourth place in the WAC standings with a record of 4-2 and are 6-3 overall which means they are again bowl eligible under head coach Pat Hill. Last Saturday night, FSU was pitted against the other powerhouse program in the WAC as it hosted nationally-ranked Nevada, but as hard as the Bulldogs fought they still couldn't get into the win column as they bowed in a narrow 35-34 final, snapping a three-game win streak in the process.
"I can't say enough about Robbie Rouse," Coach Hill said of his running back after the loss against Nevada. "He's really coming into his own and becoming the back we thought he could be. He played great." Played great might be an understatement given that Rouse became the first back in Fresno State history to register back-to-back games with at least 200 rushing yards as he finished with 217 to go along with his two touchdowns. In the previous game against Louisiana Tech the back gained 286 yards, second- most for a Bulldogs back. Rouse, who ranks second in the league now and 15th nationally with his 104.9 ypg, has four straight games with at least 100 yards and during that stretch he's put up a collective 769 yards and seven of his eight rushing TDs on the season.
Quarterback Ryan Colburn finished the outing against Nevada by converting 16- of-26 passes for 194 yards and a pair of touchdowns, with Rouse being on the receiving end of one of those scoring tosses. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, the defense simply could not come up with the big plays when they needed it most, allowing Colin Kaepernick to not only throw for 171 yards but also gain 153 yards and score twice on the ground. Additionally, the squad could not keep Vai Taua out of the end zone either as the back hit pay dirt a total of three times on 21 carries.
On the season the run defense for the Bulldogs has taken a bit of a beating, allowing 155.7 ypg to rank fourth in the conference and 67th in the nation entering play this week, but don't tell that to Chris Carter or Logan Harrell who have made it their jobs to gain access to the backfield and disrupt plays. Carter currently leads the team with 14.5 tackles for loss and is also first with four forced fumbles, his nine sacks matching Harrell for the team lead. Harrell has just 31 total stops to his credit right now, but 12.5 of those have been TFLs. Put it all together and the Bulldogs rank second in the conference and 19th nationally with 7.0 TFLs per game, not to mention sixth in the country in sacks with three per outing.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, sacks are very hard to come by when Boise State's Kellen Moore is on the field. In fact, the Broncos are currently first in the conference and fifth in the nation with just 0.56 sacks allowed per outing, something that has been very key to the success of the Broncos offense again in 2010 as it generates a hefty 47.6 ppg. Last week against the Vandals, Moore threw for 216 yards and three touchdowns in the pasting of Idaho on the road. On the ground during that in-state battle Doug Martin piled another 117 yards and a couple of TDs as well.
From a defensive standpoint, outside of allowing Idaho to sneak in a couple of fake punts to keep drives alive, the Broncos were never truly threatened by the Vandals. "They're a sound defense," Idaho QB Nate Enderle said after the game. "They play their role and they work hard on every play," Enderle said. "You need to execute and be very efficient in what you do and we did that only in sporadic times during the game."
Calling them a sound defense might be an understatement given that BSU is holding opponents to a mere 240.8 ypg to rank third in the nation and its 12.8 ppg allowed has the group rated second in the country behind only TCU (10.9 ppg). Along the line of scrimmage and into the backfield is where the squad thrives, now ranked first in the entire FBS in TFLs with 8.9 percent and second in sacks with 3.9 per outing.
While the defense is keeping opponent from ever posing a true threat, the offense simply keeps motoring along under Moore who now holds the school record for passing touchdowns despite only being a junior. Moore has the passing attack clicking with 315.9 ypg and the offensive overall responsible for 530.2 ypg with his second in the conference and fourth in the country at the moment.
• SERIES HISTORY
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Boise State, which won last year's meeting against the Bulldogs by a score of 51-34 on the road in Fresno, owns a 7-4 edge in the all-time series heading into action this week. The Broncos have won eight of the last nine meetings in the series, with the most recent FSU victory coming back in 2005 by a score of 27-7 at home.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Boise State passed TCU in the latest AP Poll, closed the gap in the BCS standings and is the only unbeaten team with a chance to impress the voters this week as Oregon, Auburn and the Horned Frogs all have the week off. Fresno State HC Pat Hill’s mantra has always been ‘anyone, anytime, anywhere’ but he may want to exclude the Broncos from the mix. His Bulldogs are 1-8 SU and ATS versus Boise since 2001, including 0-4 SU and ATS on the blue stuff.
That’s a shame for Bulldog backers as Hill and company are a profitable 7-3 ATS as dogs of 15 or more points. High scoring Fresno has also tallied 27 or more points in every game this season and in 20 of 22 games dating back to last season. That’s a number worth keeping in the memory bank as the Bulldogs are 33-11 ATS as dogs when they score 21 or more points. However, that number doesn’t carry as much bite as it should when we throw in the Broncos’ 43-0 SU and 31-11-1 ATS mark in lined conference games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boise State by 29.5 O/U 65
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boise State -32
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boise State -28.34
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--BOISE ST is 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 39.0, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOISE ST is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 35.5, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--FRESNO ST is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 29.7, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--FRESNO ST is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 28.7, OPPONENT 28.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BOISE ST is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) off a road blowout win by 28 points or more since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 47.1, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--FRESNO ST is 25-12 OVER (+11.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 30.4, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--BOISE ST is 32-14 against the 1rst half line (+16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 20.3, OPPONENT 11.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--FRESNO ST is 41-24 against the 1rst half line (+14.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 19.6, OPPONENT 11.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BOISE ST is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOISE ST 30.4, OPPONENT 8.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--FRESNO ST is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 17.8, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games.
(30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (36-0 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 25.4
The average score in these games was: Team 49.9, Opponent 17.2 (Average point differential = +32.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (54-26).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (80-45).
--PLAY ON - Any team (BOISE ST) - an excellent offensive team (>=34 PPG) against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games.
(42-13 since 1992.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 11.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 27.9, Opponent 9 (Average first half point differential = +18.9)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-11).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 32 to 35 (BOISE ST) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
(30-10 since 1992.) (75.0%, +19 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 33.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 22.3, Opponent 15.1 (Total first half points scored = 37.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-8).