SPORTS ADVISORS
(22) Cincinnati (7-2, 4-4 ATS) at Louisville (5-4, 4-4 ATS)
The red-hot Bearcats have jumped into the Top-25 for the first time this season thanks to back-to-back wins over ranked teams and now travel to Louisville for a Big East matchup with the Cardinals.
Since falling in Connecticut on Oct. 25, Cincinnati has beaten then-No. 24 South Florida 24-10 as a 1½-point ‘dog and then last week went to 20th-ranked West Virginia and got a 26-23 overtime win as a seven-point underdog. Bearcats QB Tony Pike, still recovering from surgery on his non-throwing arm, threw a 2-yard TD pass in OT to Kazeem Alli to beat West Virginia, and he’s thrown 10 TDs this season against just three INTs.
Cincinnati has won six of its last seven games (4-3 ATS) to pull into a three-way tie for first in the Big East with the Mountaineers and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in the eight-team division.
Louisville has dropped two straight, both on the road, including last week’s 41-7 disaster in Pittsburgh as a six-point underdog. The Cardinals lead the Big East with 21 turnovers and coughed it up five times against the Panthers last week, including a fumble and interception that were returned for scores.
Cardinals’ QB Hunter Cantwell was replaced twice last week by redshirt freshman Matt Simms, but Cantwell is slated to start tonight even though he’s completing just 57.9 percent of his throws and has 13 TDs and 11 INTs.
Louisville has won the last five matchups (4-1 ATS) with nearby Cincinnati and nine of the last 10 (8-2 ATS). Last season, the Cardinals went to Cincinnati and got a 28-24 win as eight-point underdogs, handing the Bearcats their first loss of the 2007 season. The last time these two met in Louisville, the Cardinals prevailed 23-17 but came nowhere near covering as 25-point favorites.
Cincinnati is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 19-9-2 overall, 5-2-1 in Big East games, 25-10-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 12-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0-1 in November contests. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Friday affairs, but otherwise the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-9 at home and 5-2 following a non-cover.
The over is 9-3-1 in the Bearcats last 13 road games, but the under has been the play in seven of their last 10 after a straight-up win and five of their last seven after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Louisville has stayed under the total in four straight Big East contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Denver (4-4, 6-2 ATS) at Boston (8-1, 4-5 ATS)
The Celtics will try to make it seven straight wins when they welcome the Nuggets to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.
The Celtics stretched their winning streak to six with Wednesday’s dramatic 103-102 home win over the Hawks as Paul Pierce hit the game-winner with 0.5 seconds left. The victory ended Atlanta’s six-game winning streak to start the season, but the Celtics came nowhere near covering the 10½-point spread. Boston is a perfect 5-0 at home this season but just 1-4 ATS.
Denver went to Cleveland last night and dropped a 110-99 decision to the Cavs, coming up short as a six-point underdog. The loss snapped the Nuggets’ three-game SU and ATS winning streak, all coming after the arrival of Chauncey Billups in the trade for Allen Iverson.
The home team is on a 7-0 SU and ATS roll in this series, and the winner has scored at least 116 points in each of the last four. Last year, Boston got a 119-93 win in Beantown as a 6½-point favorite and then the Nuggets returned the favor in a 124-118 win in Denver as a one-point chalk.
Denver is on ATS streaks of 6-2 ovreall, 8-0 against teams from the Atlantic Division, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 13-3 in Friday contests. Boston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games, but otherwise the Celtics are on positive ATS runs of 11-5 overall, 35-16 against the Western Conference, 17-8 against teams from the Northwest Division and 5-2 when playing after a day off.
For the Nuggets, the over is 35-16 in their last 51 Friday contests and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference, but the under is 12-5 in their last 17 overall. Boston has topped the total in 25 of its last 33 against the Northwest Division and the over is 4-0 in its last four against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 6-0 in the last six Nuggets-Celtics clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Houston (5-3, 3-5 ATS) at San Antonio (2-5, 1-6 ATS)
The Rockets wrap up a five-game road trip tonight in the AT&T Center in San Antonio trying to snap the home team’s four-game winning streak in this battle between Lone Star State rivals.
The host won all four meetings between these two last season with Houston getting the cash in three of the four. The four-game streak by the home team comes after a six-game winning streak by the visitor (5-1 ATS). The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Spurs, and they have gotten the cash in five of their last six visits to San Antonio.
Houston is 2-2 (SU and ATS) so far on its road trip and come in off Wednesday’s 94-82 win in Phoenix as a 3½-point underdog. The Rockets got 27 points from Tracy McGrady in the win that was marred by an on-court shoving match between the Suns’ Matt Barnes and Houston’s Rafer Alston.
San Antonio has alternated wins and losses in its last four after opening the season with three straight defeats. The Spurs fell in Milwaukee on Wednesday 82-78 as 2½-point underdogs. Gregg Popovich’s team is just 1-3 SU and ATS at home this season with the lone win being Tuesday’s 92-80 triumph over the Knicks as a 4½-point chalk.
Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games after a straight-up win and 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing after a day off, but the Rockets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Friday contests. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been a bad bet lately, currently on ATS slides of 1-8 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-6 against Western Conference squads and 1-5 after a non-cover.
For the Rockets, the over is 5-2 in their last seven against Southwest Division foes, but the under is 7-2 in their last nine after a spread-cover and 6-2 in their last eight after a day off. The Spurs carry under trends of 13-3 overall, 7-1 at home, 21-8-1 against the Southwest Division, 10-3 against the Western Conference and 8-1 after an off day.
Finally, the under is 22-6 in the last 28 Rockets-Spurs meetings and 6-1 in the last seven clashes in San Antonio.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (7-0, 6-1 ATS)
The Lakers will try to remain the NBA’s only unbeaten team when they host the Pistons inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles has been impressive at both ends of the court during its perfect start to the season, with the offense averaging 104.7 points a game and the defense yielding just 86.7 points per contest, holding all seven opponents under triple digits. The Lakers had their worst offensive output on Wednesday in New Orleans, but still cruised to a 93-86 victory as 1½-point road ‘dogs, their fourth straight spread-cover.
Detroit opened the season with five straight wins and then proceeded to lose two straight after acquiring Allen Iverson from the Nuggets for Chauncey Billups in an exchange of point guards. But the Pistons have rebounded to win two straight on the West Coast – a 100-92 victory in Sacramento on Tuesday as 7½-point favorites and a 107-102 triumph last night in Oakland, cashing as a 4½-point chalk.
Detroit has scored 100 points or more in each of its six wins and the Pistons have allowed only three opponents to reach triple digits.
The home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings between these teams, but the Lakers got the cash in both outings last season, winning 103-91 in Los Angeles as a 3½-point favorite, then cashing as 8½-point ‘dogs in a 90-89 loss in Motown. However, the Pistons are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 series clashes.
The Pistons are on ATS streaks of 6-1 on the road, 7-1 against the Western Conference and 5-0 against teams from the Pacific Division. Los Angeles has failed to cash in nine straight games against the Eastern Conference, including last year’s NBA Finals series against Boston. On the bright side, the Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 at home.
The under is 13-3 in Detroit’s last 16 games when playing on the second night of a back-to-back situation, but the over is 6-1 in its last seven on the road and 6-2 in its last eight overall. For the Lakers, the over is 11-5 in their last 16 on Friday, but otherwise, L.A. is on under streaks of 6-2 when they get a day off and 38-15-1 against teams from the Central Division. In this rivalry, the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings overall and 7-3 in the last 10 battles at Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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