2-Units (7:05 P.M. CST)
Derrick Rose and the Bulls get a shot at the defending NBA Champions tonight. After an impressive win over the Bucks in their opener, they will face a Celtics team that will be more of a challenge. Boston was down 7 points at halftime against Cleveland on Tuesday night, but finished strong, holding the Cavaliers to 35 second half points before finally pulling away in a 90-85 win. Let's not forget that Derrick Rose is still a star in the making, and at this time last season he was a soon to be Freshman Sensation for the Memphis Tigers. He had 11 points, 9 assists, and four turnovers in his NBA debut on Tuesday, that resulted in a Bulls win. The Bulls turned the ball over 18 times against an average Bucks team, and things may get ugly against possibly the best defensive team in the NBA in the Celtics. Milwaukee as a team shot 47% from the field against the Bulls and their small front court, so the Celtics and their all star cast should reach that number or better. Both teams have changed since last season, but an interesting stat to think about is that the Celtics won all 4 games last season by an average of 18 points a game. Look for the Celtics to prove to the Bulls and the world why they are the Defending NBA Champions. Welcome to your first NBA road game Derrick Rose! Too bad it has to be against the Celtics.
Take the Boston Celtics -10 for 2-Units.
Thanks and Good Luck
Slade
Southcoast Sports
Derrick Rose and the Bulls get a shot at the defending NBA Champions tonight. After an impressive win over the Bucks in their opener, they will face a Celtics team that will be more of a challenge. Boston was down 7 points at halftime against Cleveland on Tuesday night, but finished strong, holding the Cavaliers to 35 second half points before finally pulling away in a 90-85 win. Let's not forget that Derrick Rose is still a star in the making, and at this time last season he was a soon to be Freshman Sensation for the Memphis Tigers. He had 11 points, 9 assists, and four turnovers in his NBA debut on Tuesday, that resulted in a Bulls win. The Bulls turned the ball over 18 times against an average Bucks team, and things may get ugly against possibly the best defensive team in the NBA in the Celtics. Milwaukee as a team shot 47% from the field against the Bulls and their small front court, so the Celtics and their all star cast should reach that number or better. Both teams have changed since last season, but an interesting stat to think about is that the Celtics won all 4 games last season by an average of 18 points a game. Look for the Celtics to prove to the Bulls and the world why they are the Defending NBA Champions. Welcome to your first NBA road game Derrick Rose! Too bad it has to be against the Celtics.
Take the Boston Celtics -10 for 2-Units.
Thanks and Good Luck
Slade
Southcoast Sports
any dr bob yet?
Dr. Bob Free analysis
San Antonio (-1 1/2) over PORTLAND
San Antonio applies to a 70-28-3 ATS early season indicator while Portland applies to a negative 11-45-1 ATS indicator. Normally, I'd be playing the Spurs here, but the linesmakers have underestimated the absence of San Antonio's Manu Ginobili. San Antonio has been just an average team in games that Ginobili has missed in recent years and I'd favor Portland by a point in this game. While the situation is strongly in San Antonio's favor, the line appears to be off and I'll resist making the Spurs a Best Bet. I'll just lean with San Antonio at -2 or less.
Dr. Bob Free analysis
San Antonio (-1 1/2) over PORTLAND
San Antonio applies to a 70-28-3 ATS early season indicator while Portland applies to a negative 11-45-1 ATS indicator. Normally, I'd be playing the Spurs here, but the linesmakers have underestimated the absence of San Antonio's Manu Ginobili. San Antonio has been just an average team in games that Ginobili has missed in recent years and I'd favor Portland by a point in this game. While the situation is strongly in San Antonio's favor, the line appears to be off and I'll resist making the Spurs a Best Bet. I'll just lean with San Antonio at -2 or less.
dr bob
2 Star Selection
Golden State (+7) over TORONTO
31-Oct-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
Toronto opened the season with a seemingly impressive win at Philadelphia as a 5 point dog, but that victory was the result of variance in 3-point shooting, as the Raptors made 10 of 16 from long range while Philly only knocked down 5 of 20 from beyond the arc. Had each player made his career percentage on 3-pointers then Toronto would have lost by 4 points, which is exactly what my ratings had predicted for that game. Golden State, meanwhile, played pretty well in a 5 point loss as a 7 point dog against New Orleans in their opener and the Warriors apply to a very strong 40-8-3 ATS subset of a 70-28-3 ATS early season angle. Toronto, meanwhile, applies to a negative 29-73-4 ATS home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win. The Warriors aren’t going to be quite as good this year, as the net of losing Baron Davis and Monta Ellis (injured) and adding Corey Maggette is about -2 ½ points. However, the Warriors still look like an average NBA team and they still have their emotionial leading inStephen Jackson, who usually gets his team fired up after a loss. The Warriors are 62-64-2 ATS in all games with Jackson playing, but they are better after a loss (30-21 ATS) than they are after a win (30-43-2 ATS) thanks to Jackson’s personality. Golden State is 29-9 straight up when rested after a loss with Jackson and 18-7 ATS in those games when not favored by more than 6 points. My ratings favor Toronto by 7 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Golden State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +8 or more.
2-Stars at +7 or more, 3-Stars at +8.
4 Star Selection
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over New York
31-Oct-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
The 76ers are coming off an opening night upset loss to Toronto, but random 3-point shooting variance was the reason for that outcome (see the Golden State-Toronto analysis) and Philadelphia applies to a very strong 52-6-1 ATS early season indicator in addition to a 35-3 ATS subset of a 156-86-2 ATS all season situation. My ratings favor Philadelphia by 8 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Philadelphia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less, for 3-Stars at -8 ½ or -9 points, and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
4-Stars at -8 or less, 3-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9 and 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.
3 Star Selection
Orlando (-7 ½) over MEMPHIS
31-Oct-08 05:05 PM Pacific Time
Orlando made a living last season by beating up on bad teams and I expect that trend to continue tonight, as the Magic rebound from their opening game loss to Atlanta. The Magic were 26-8 ATS last season after a loss and coach Stan Van Gundy’s teams are 70-44-2 ATS after a loss in his coaching career. Van Gundy also makes a habit of beating the teams that he’s supposed to beat, as his teams are 48-15-4 ATS as a favorite or pick against a team with a win percentage of less than .444, including 17-6-1 ATS last season with the Magic. In addition to the Van Gundy coaching trends, the Magic apply to a very strong 52-6-1 ATS early season indicator while Memphis applies to a negative 11-45-1 ATS early season indicator. My ratings favor Orlando by 7 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Orlando in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars at -7 ½ or -8 points and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ points.
3-Stars at -8 or less, 4-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2.
3 Star Selection
Denver (-2) over L.A. CLIPPERS
31-Oct-08 07:35 PM Pacific Time
The Clippers have Baron Davis and little else to work with and they appear to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference again this season. Denver isn’t likely to be as good as they were last season, but the suspension of the grossly overrated Carmelo Anthony gives us some line value. The Nuggets played about 2 ½ points better per 48 minutes with Anthony on the bench than they did when he was in the game last season and that’s a pattern that has existed since he entered the league. Anthony is an above average offensive player, but the Nuggets’ defense is 5 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor than when he’s not. Denver nearly beat the Jazz in Utah without Anthony in their opener and they should be a bad Clippers team tonight given that they apply to a 70-28-3 ATS early season indicator. My ratings favor Denver by 2 ½ points in this game and I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less and for 2-Stars at -2 ½ or -3 points.
3-Stars at -2 or less, 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or -3.
2 Star Selection
31-Oct-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
Toronto opened the season with a seemingly impressive win at Philadelphia as a 5 point dog, but that victory was the result of variance in 3-point shooting, as the Raptors made 10 of 16 from long range while Philly only knocked down 5 of 20 from beyond the arc. Had each player made his career percentage on 3-pointers then Toronto would have lost by 4 points, which is exactly what my ratings had predicted for that game. Golden State, meanwhile, played pretty well in a 5 point loss as a 7 point dog against New Orleans in their opener and the Warriors apply to a very strong 40-8-3 ATS subset of a 70-28-3 ATS early season angle. Toronto, meanwhile, applies to a negative 29-73-4 ATS home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win. The Warriors aren’t going to be quite as good this year, as the net of losing Baron Davis and Monta Ellis (injured) and adding Corey Maggette is about -2 ½ points. However, the Warriors still look like an average NBA team and they still have their emotionial leading inStephen Jackson, who usually gets his team fired up after a loss. The Warriors are 62-64-2 ATS in all games with Jackson playing, but they are better after a loss (30-21 ATS) than they are after a win (30-43-2 ATS) thanks to Jackson’s personality. Golden State is 29-9 straight up when rested after a loss with Jackson and 18-7 ATS in those games when not favored by more than 6 points. My ratings favor Toronto by 7 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Golden State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +8 or more.
2-Stars at +7 or more, 3-Stars at +8.
4 Star Selection
31-Oct-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
The 76ers are coming off an opening night upset loss to Toronto, but random 3-point shooting variance was the reason for that outcome (see the Golden State-Toronto analysis) and Philadelphia applies to a very strong 52-6-1 ATS early season indicator in addition to a 35-3 ATS subset of a 156-86-2 ATS all season situation. My ratings favor Philadelphia by 8 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Philadelphia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less, for 3-Stars at -8 ½ or -9 points, and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
4-Stars at -8 or less, 3-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9 and 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.
3 Star Selection
31-Oct-08 05:05 PM Pacific Time
Orlando made a living last season by beating up on bad teams and I expect that trend to continue tonight, as the Magic rebound from their opening game loss to Atlanta. The Magic were 26-8 ATS last season after a loss and coach Stan Van Gundy’s teams are 70-44-2 ATS after a loss in his coaching career. Van Gundy also makes a habit of beating the teams that he’s supposed to beat, as his teams are 48-15-4 ATS as a favorite or pick against a team with a win percentage of less than .444, including 17-6-1 ATS last season with the Magic. In addition to the Van Gundy coaching trends, the Magic apply to a very strong 52-6-1 ATS early season indicator while Memphis applies to a negative 11-45-1 ATS early season indicator. My ratings favor Orlando by 7 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Orlando in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars at -7 ½ or -8 points and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ points.
3-Stars at -8 or less, 4-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2.
3 Star Selection
31-Oct-08 07:35 PM Pacific Time
The Clippers have Baron Davis and little else to work with and they appear to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference again this season. Denver isn’t likely to be as good as they were last season, but the suspension of the grossly overrated Carmelo Anthony gives us some line value. The Nuggets played about 2 ½ points better per 48 minutes with Anthony on the bench than they did when he was in the game last season and that’s a pattern that has existed since he entered the league. Anthony is an above average offensive player, but the Nuggets’ defense is 5 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor than when he’s not. Denver nearly beat the Jazz in Utah without Anthony in their opener and they should be a bad Clippers team tonight given that they apply to a 70-28-3 ATS early season indicator. My ratings favor Denver by 2 ½ points in this game and I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less and for 2-Stars at -2 ½ or -3 points.
3-Stars at -2 or less, 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or -3.
