Marc Lawrence
GAME OF THE WEEK
Utah St over BYU by 1
The first of seven non-conference tilts takes us out to Mormon
country where this bitter 92-year-old rivalry fi nds the victors taking
home the Old Wagon Wheel and the losers making wives jokes. And
while BYU has garnered the ‘Wheel’ in 29 of the last 33 meetings,
it’s been the Aggies that have grabbed the cash (5-1 ATS last six) and
the punch lines (“your wives are so ugly they use them in prisons
to cure sex offenders”). Well, we have a feeling the Old Wheel is
heading back to Logan as Utah State is 9-0 ATS as dogs of 5 or more
points, 4-0 ATS with rest and 5-1-1 ATS with non-conference revenge.
Meanwhile, the Cougars are 0-3 ATS with rest over the past two
seasons and a far-too-hospitable 1-9 ATS in a third straight home
game. So whether it’s Chuckie Keeton under center or accomplished
back-up Darell Garretson (6-1 as starter in 2013), we feel the Heisman
buzz surrounding BYU signal-caller Taysom Hill may just turn into
another Dangerfi eld joke. At least that’s what our INCREDIBLE STAT
on page 3 thinks as it provides The Clincher: BYU is 0-12 ATS at
home off back-to-back home games after scoring 14 or more
points in its last game.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Utah St over BYU by 1
The first of seven non-conference tilts takes us out to Mormon
country where this bitter 92-year-old rivalry fi nds the victors taking
home the Old Wagon Wheel and the losers making wives jokes. And
while BYU has garnered the ‘Wheel’ in 29 of the last 33 meetings,
it’s been the Aggies that have grabbed the cash (5-1 ATS last six) and
the punch lines (“your wives are so ugly they use them in prisons
to cure sex offenders”). Well, we have a feeling the Old Wheel is
heading back to Logan as Utah State is 9-0 ATS as dogs of 5 or more
points, 4-0 ATS with rest and 5-1-1 ATS with non-conference revenge.
Meanwhile, the Cougars are 0-3 ATS with rest over the past two
seasons and a far-too-hospitable 1-9 ATS in a third straight home
game. So whether it’s Chuckie Keeton under center or accomplished
back-up Darell Garretson (6-1 as starter in 2013), we feel the Heisman
buzz surrounding BYU signal-caller Taysom Hill may just turn into
another Dangerfi eld joke. At least that’s what our INCREDIBLE STAT
on page 3 thinks as it provides The Clincher: BYU is 0-12 ATS at
home off back-to-back home games after scoring 14 or more
points in its last game.
Had business to attend to so missed the early game. I know some people like to know, so I am posting a couple of cappers who had plays on the early game.
As well, yesterday I was called out by Picksky for posting the incorrect plays of Falcon Sports. Picksky, I suggest you get a better source, because the plays were correct. It is individuals such as yourself that bring this Forum down and why people keep leaving. Here is an idea, check your facts before calling someone out, and try to contribute something positive to the Forum.
Falcon Sports
Baltimore -105 listing Chen/Verlander
San Diego State +3
Bob Balfe
Detroit -105
Verlander/Chen
Baltimore put on a hitting clinic when the game was out of reach, but those big runs late have nothing to do with today. Detroit is a veteran team and this is the best staff in baseball. Detroit has the players and the experience to forget about yesterday and regain focus in a quick turnaround. Verlander is one of the best in the game who will make sure he goes long enough for the bullpen not to blow it. Take the Tigers.
Sportswagers
BALTIMORE -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)
As well, yesterday I was called out by Picksky for posting the incorrect plays of Falcon Sports. Picksky, I suggest you get a better source, because the plays were correct. It is individuals such as yourself that bring this Forum down and why people keep leaving. Here is an idea, check your facts before calling someone out, and try to contribute something positive to the Forum.
Falcon Sports
Baltimore -105 listing Chen/Verlander
San Diego State +3
Bob Balfe
Detroit -105
Verlander/Chen
Baltimore put on a hitting clinic when the game was out of reach, but those big runs late have nothing to do with today. Detroit is a veteran team and this is the best staff in baseball. Detroit has the players and the experience to forget about yesterday and regain focus in a quick turnaround. Verlander is one of the best in the game who will make sure he goes long enough for the bullpen not to blow it. Take the Tigers.
Sportswagers
BALTIMORE -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)
Sportswagers
Kansas City @ L.A. ANGELS
Kansas City +141 over L.A. ANGELS
As we’ve witnessed in their two playoff games so far, the Royals speed is a serious factor in close games and their ability to get runners over and in makes them very playable when taking back a tag. One can’t also ignore the confidence they have coming into this one. When a young and talented team gets on a role, they’re extremely difficult to beat and that applies here to the Royals. They also have an outstanding bullpen behind today’s starter, Yordano Ventura. Ventura has a BB/K split of 16/34 over his last 37 frames. His average fastball sits around 96 mph, which is tops in the majors among starters and his dominance is reflected in a 12% swing and miss rate. Ventura’s Ks should continue to be plentiful and figures to bode well against the Angels biggest threats, as Mike Trout struck out more than any AL hitter this year while Howie Kendrick, Josh Hamilton, David Freese and Kole Calhoun all struck out over 100 times. With elite fastball velocity and a strong groundball tilt, Ventura has the tools to thrive in any start.
Matt Shoemaker missed his final two starts of the regular season because of an oblique injury. He hasn’t pitched since September 15 and he’ll now be thrown into this pressure cooker with the Halos down 0-1. When healthy, Shoemaker has the goods to excel and one would assume he’s healthy here or he would not be starting in such a crucial game. Still, Shoemaker posted a K/9 above 8 just once between 2008 and 2013 in the minors so his current strikeout rate is a bit of a surprise. His fastball tops out around 90 MPH, so we'd assume he's getting it done with superior off-speed offerings. But having spent six seasons in the minors, we’re somewhat reluctant to label him as an ace. Furthermore, the Royals are a team that makes contact. They struck out the least amount of times in the entire league and they also have a combined 19 hits in 41 AB’s against Shoemaker for a combined batting average of .463. That’s a small sample size but Shoemaker is going to need all those balls in play to be hit at people to succeed. We’re not suggesting that Ventura has a big edge over Shoemaker. What we are suggesting is that the Royals have just as good a chance of winning and maybe more so. They have a big edge in the small ball department, they have momentum and they’re taking back a pretty sweet price as well. We’ll play the value.
Our Pick
Kansas City +141 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.82)
Kansas City @ L.A. ANGELS
Kansas City +141 over L.A. ANGELS
As we’ve witnessed in their two playoff games so far, the Royals speed is a serious factor in close games and their ability to get runners over and in makes them very playable when taking back a tag. One can’t also ignore the confidence they have coming into this one. When a young and talented team gets on a role, they’re extremely difficult to beat and that applies here to the Royals. They also have an outstanding bullpen behind today’s starter, Yordano Ventura. Ventura has a BB/K split of 16/34 over his last 37 frames. His average fastball sits around 96 mph, which is tops in the majors among starters and his dominance is reflected in a 12% swing and miss rate. Ventura’s Ks should continue to be plentiful and figures to bode well against the Angels biggest threats, as Mike Trout struck out more than any AL hitter this year while Howie Kendrick, Josh Hamilton, David Freese and Kole Calhoun all struck out over 100 times. With elite fastball velocity and a strong groundball tilt, Ventura has the tools to thrive in any start.
Matt Shoemaker missed his final two starts of the regular season because of an oblique injury. He hasn’t pitched since September 15 and he’ll now be thrown into this pressure cooker with the Halos down 0-1. When healthy, Shoemaker has the goods to excel and one would assume he’s healthy here or he would not be starting in such a crucial game. Still, Shoemaker posted a K/9 above 8 just once between 2008 and 2013 in the minors so his current strikeout rate is a bit of a surprise. His fastball tops out around 90 MPH, so we'd assume he's getting it done with superior off-speed offerings. But having spent six seasons in the minors, we’re somewhat reluctant to label him as an ace. Furthermore, the Royals are a team that makes contact. They struck out the least amount of times in the entire league and they also have a combined 19 hits in 41 AB’s against Shoemaker for a combined batting average of .463. That’s a small sample size but Shoemaker is going to need all those balls in play to be hit at people to succeed. We’re not suggesting that Ventura has a big edge over Shoemaker. What we are suggesting is that the Royals have just as good a chance of winning and maybe more so. They have a big edge in the small ball department, they have momentum and they’re taking back a pretty sweet price as well. We’ll play the value.
Our Pick
Kansas City +141 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.82)
Charlies sports
Friday's 500* NCAA Football Value Report Triple Lock.
NCAA Football. 7:00 PM EST. Syracuse+3'. (500*)
NCAA Football. 7:00 PM EST. Louisville @ Syracuse over 46. (500*).
NCAA Football. 10:00 PM EST. Utah State @ BYU under 51 points. (500*)
NCAA Football. Utah State+21. (30*) comp play
MLB Playoffs. St. Louis @ Dodgers under 5'runs. (20*) comp play
MLB Playoffs. Angles-155. (10*) Bonus Play
Friday's 500* NCAA Football Value Report Triple Lock.
NCAA Football. 7:00 PM EST. Syracuse+3'. (500*)
NCAA Football. 7:00 PM EST. Louisville @ Syracuse over 46. (500*).
NCAA Football. 10:00 PM EST. Utah State @ BYU under 51 points. (500*)
NCAA Football. Utah State+21. (30*) comp play
MLB Playoffs. St. Louis @ Dodgers under 5'runs. (20*) comp play
MLB Playoffs. Angles-155. (10*) Bonus Play
Dr. Bob
***AKRON (-23) 43 Eastern Michigan 9
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 358 Over/Under 49.5
Sometimes teams are so bad that the odds makers can’t make the spread high enough. Eastern Michigan appears to be such a team. Eastern Michigan opened the season with a 31-28 win over Morgan State but the Eagles were favored by 25 ½ points in that game and Morgan State is about 35 points worse than an average FBS team. What followed were 3 losses by a combined score of 17-155. I realize that two of those losses were to good teams Florida and Michigan State and the Eagles did cover in their 3-21 loss at Old Dominion, but that loss should have been worse and the game rating on that Old Dominion game was 29.5 points worse than average. Most alarming about that game is that their offense is so bad that they only scored 3 points against a bad Old Dominion defense. Overall, Eastern Michigan has been outgained by an average of 215 yards at just 3.3 yards per play to 503 yards at 6.9 yppl by 4 teams whose average rating is actually 2 points worse than an average FBS team.
Eastern Michigan’s offense is among the worst I’ve ever seen, averaging just 3.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl against an average team – and their numbers would be even worse if you only used their stats against their opponent’s starting defense. Akron’s defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, and the Zips’ stop unit is 0.7 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the Eagles’ opponents. Eastern Michigan has only averaged 12 points per game and they’re not likely to reach that low number today against a team that’s allowed just 19.8 points per game and shutout the only other really bad offense they’ve faced (a 41-0 win over Howard, who actually has a higher rated offense than Eastern Michigan). Akron did have one bad defensive game, allowing 48 points to Marshall’s potent attack, but the Zips also allowed an average of just 16.5 points in road games at Penn State and Pittsburgh, so they’ve mostly been very good.
The Akron offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average but the Zips should have pretty good field position most of this game and my model projects 518 total yards at 6.2 yppl for that unit in this game against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s given up 6.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense team.
I mentioned that there are some teams that are just so bad that they can’t make the number high enough. Well, Eastern Michigan applies to a negative 25-73-1 ATS situation that plays against really bad teams as road dogs of 21 points or more. I won bets going against Eastern Michigan in that angle twice last season – both 39 point losses to Northern Illinois and Toledo. My math model gives Akron a 58.0% chance of covering based solely on the math and the situation applying to Eastern Michigan enhances our chances. Also, teams that allowed more than 60 points and scored fewer than 28 points in their previous game are just 15-41-2 ATS as road underdogs of less than 50 points. I’ll take Akron in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -25 and for 1-Star up to -27 points.
***KANSAS STATE (-12 ½) 43 Texas Tech 20
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 360 Over/Under 68.0
We have a few things going for us in this game. Not only does Kansas State qualify as a math play at -14 points or less but the Wildcats apply to a very good 95-29 ATS home momentum situation while Texas Tech applies to a very negative 57-127-2 ATS situation. Those are two of my two most reliable angles and the record is 7-1 ATS for the home team when they both apply to the same game. Texas Tech was a in a very good situation last week (a 43-9-1 ATS situation applied to them) and they managed to get the final touchdown to cover in a 35-45 loss at Oklahoma State. An inexperienced defense (just 4 returning starters) continues to be a major problem for Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders have allowed an average of 39 points on 459 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Those aren’t horrible numbers, but they’re not good by major conference standards and my math model projects 495 yards at 6.3 yppl for a better than average Kansas State offense.
I’ll assume that Texas Tech will have quarterback Davis Webb behind center, as he’s practiced this week in full pads despite a dislocated shoulder in his non-throwing arm. I’ll even assume that the injury will have no ill effects and the Red Raiders’ pass heavy attack rates at 0.6 yards per play better than average with Webb at the controls (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team). This isn’t a perfect matchup for a Kansas State defense that excels as defending the run but the Wildcats have been 1.0 yppl better than average defensively even though opponents tend to throw more against them. My model projects a modest 5.4 yppl for Texas Tech in this game but the Red Raiders will run a lot of plays and are predicted to gain 407 total yards.
Overall, the math model gives Kansas State a 56% chance of covering after factoring in their projected edge in turnovers and far superior special teams, so we have a combination of a math play with two very strong situations that all point towards the Wildcats covering. I’ll take Kansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -16 points and for 1-Star at -16 ½ points.
***ARKANSAS STATE (-9) 33 UL Monroe 13
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 404 Over/Under 47.5
UL Monroe is 3-1 with the only loss being to LSU (0-31) and the Warhawks’ good looking record disguises the fact that they’re a bad team. Their 3 wins were by an average of just 5.3 points to 3 horrible teams (Wake Forest, Idaho, and Troy) and all 3 of those games were at home. Arkansas State is a solid team that has significant advantages over ULM on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Red Wolves have only played one bad game, a 20-41 loss on the road against an underrated Miami-Florida team, and their 19-34 loss at Tennessee was actually very competitive as they were out played from the line of scrimmage by just 4.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl by a pretty good Tennessee team that almost won at Georgia last week. Arkansas State’s other two games were a 37-10 home win over Montana State, a team that is in the same class as UL Monroe, and a 21-14 home win over Utah State – a team that is more than 10 points better than ULM. Let’s take a look at the match up.
The UL Monroe offense is horrible. The Warhawks have averaged just 4.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average team and they’ve been 1.5 yppl worse than average or more in all 4 of their games so far – so the pathetic play has been consistent. I don’t expect the Warhawks to generate many scoring opportunities in this game against a better than average Arkansas State defense that’s yielded just 5.3 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The Red Wolves gave up some big pass plays to Miami but they have allowed 5.1 yppl or less in their other 3 games, including give up just 5.0 yppl at Tennessee. UL Monroe is only averaging 19 points per game and Arkansas State is significantly better defensively than the average defensive rating of the Warhawks’ opponents. My math projects only 262 yards at 4.1 yppl for UL Monroe in this game, which will make it a challenge to top 14 points.
UL Monroe does have a solid defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl to an average team and that unit does have the edge over an Arkansas State attack that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Redhawks should improve a bit with top running back Michael Gordon returning to the lineup, as Gordon has averaged 6.6 yards per run in his career and was averaging 6.1 ypr on 14 runs this season before missing the last 2 ½ games. Arkansas State certainly isn’t likely to move the ball with ease, as my model projects a modest 391 yards at 5.2 yppl, but the Redhawks should enjoy a significant field position advantage due to UL Monroe’s horrible offense and a big advantage in special teams. Arkansas State is +5.4 yards in kickoff yard line average over their opponents and +2.0 yards in net punting average while UL Monroe is -1.6 yards in kickoff yard line average and has a -8.6 yard net punt differential. That stuff adds up and the extra field position will benefit the Redhawks in this game. Even if special teams are even the projected 129 total yards advantage and +0.7 projected turnover advantage would be enough to cover the spread here. This is a bad line and one of my math model’s favorite games this week. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -13 and for 1-Star at -13 ½ points.
**OVER (77 ½) – *OREGON (-23 ½) 59 Arizona 29
Thu Oct-02-2014 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 308 Over/Under 75.5
Oregon has a score to settle with Arizona, who beat them last season, and the Ducks’ offense will be salivating watching Arizona’s leaky defense on film this week. The Wildcats have allowed 5.9 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. The only better than average offensive team that Arizona has faced is California, who lit up the Cats to the tune of 45 points on 578 yards at 8.1 yppl. Cal has a very good offense but not nearly as good as Oregon’s attack, which has averaged 8.3 yards per play with quarterback Marcus Mariota in the game (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). The Ducks have averaged 48.5 points per game against a schedule with collectively is better defensively than Arizona and not only with Oregon have an easier time than normal moving the ball in this game but they’ll also have more possessions given how fast Arizona runs their offense. Oregon has scored those 48.5 points per game on just 68 plays per game and they’ve slowed down their scoring with big leads in a couple of games. Tonight the Ducks are projected to run 79 plays and I expect them to approach 60 points with no intention of letting up with revenge on their minds.
Oregon actually may not be able to afford to let up given Arizona’s likelihood of offensive success in this game. Arizona has a fast paced attack that has averaged 42 points on 583 yards at 6.9 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team (the yardage number exclude their lucky Hail Mary pass against Cal). I don’t project the Wildcats to reach those numbers in this game but it’s pretty clear that Oregon’s defense is not as good this season as it was under former legendary defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, who left the team after last season. Oregon’s defense has yielded just 21.3 points per game but that number belies the 444 total yards at 5.7 yards per play that the Ducks have allowed this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Oregon has only played well defensively in only one game (allowing just 5.6 yppl to a good Michigan State offense that would average 6.3 yppl on the road against an average team) and my math model projects 546 yards at 6.2 yppl for Arizona in this game. That won’t be enough to keep up with Oregon’s offense but it will be more than enough to give this game a strong chance to total over 80 points.
The opening total on this game (76 points) was based on a point model, as I also get 76 points using points. However, the problem with a points based model for this game is that it doesn’t take into consideration the added pace of this game. Both of these teams have up tempo, no huddle offenses and both average far fewer than 30 minutes of time of possession (TOP) per game with Arizona an average TOP of 28.5 minutes and Oregon with an average TOP of just 24.5 minutes. The opponents that have used up the rest of the 60 minutes in the games these teams have played don’t run their offenses as quickly, but in this case those extra minutes will be run at a fast pace regardless of which team has the ball. That will lead to more points than a points model would project. Also, a points model doesn’t take into account that Oregon’s 21.3 points per game allowed on 444 yards per game is randomly low and that the Ducks are likely to give up more points at a higher yards per point efficiency going forward. My model projects 88.6 total points based on the projected stats on this game and I still get 87.4 total points using each team’s offensive and defensive scoring efficiency numbers. I’ll go OVER 79 or fewer points in a 2-Star Best Bet and for 1-Star up to 81 points (3-Stars at 77 or less).
I also like Oregon in this game, as my model gives the Ducks a 56% chance of covering based solely on the math and a 117-69-2 ATS situation applies to the home team that is 61-16-1 ATS since 2004. I’d have played the side for more but it’s correlated to the total since the one thing that I’m pretty certain of is that Oregon will score a lot of points. I’ll play Oregon in a 1-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less.
**Utah State (+21) 20 BYU 31
Fri Oct-03-2014 at 07:15 PM Pacific Rotation: 313 Over/Under 51.5
Three touchdowns is a lot to give a team with a defense as good as Utah State’s defense. The Aggies starters have allowed just 4.2 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl and the most that Utah State has allowed in a game is the 5.0 yppl that they gave up to a better than average Tennessee offense in week 1 (the Vols would average 5.8 yppl at home against an average defense). BYU has a very good offense that has averaged 5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but the Cougars are projected to average a sub-par 5.3 yppl against the Aggies, who have a slight edge in that match up.
BYU does have an advantage with their defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl) going up against a sub-par Utah State attack that has been 0.8 yppl worse than average so far this season. However, the injury to starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton is a blessing for the Aggies given how bad Keeton was before he injured his knee in week 3. Keeton’s running was good (96 yards on 17 runs) but his tendency to settle for easy, check down passes (just 8.4 yards per completion) led to a horrible 4.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). Backup Darell Garretson is an upgrade overall, as Garretson’s compensated passing numbers have been much better than Keeton’s this season (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp) and they were better last season too before star WR Reynolds was injured late in the year). The rushing numbers get adjusted downward without Keeton but the passing numbers get adjusted upward and overall the offense is just 0.5 yppl worse than average with Garretson. There is a chance that Keeton may play, as he’s listed as questionable, and in that case the Aggies’ attack would be 1.1 yppl worse than average. Garretson could have success through the air against a BYU defense that is very good defending the run (3.4 yprp allowed) but a bit worse than average against the pass, allowing 5.4 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.1 yppp against an average defensive team. With Garretson the math model projects 335 yards at 4.5 yards per play but only 287 yards at just 3.8 yppl if Keeton is behind center. That’s a difference of about 5 points but there would still be value in favor of Utah State even if Keeton plays and is as ineffective as he’s been.
The projected statistics in this game would predict a BYU win of just 6.9 points with Garretson at quarterback and by 12.1 points with Keeton behind center. So why is BYU favored by 3 touchdowns? Well, BYU has been more efficient at turning their yards into points while their defense has kept teams from scoring as much as their statistics would project. Overall, BYU’s average margin of victory has been 8.7 points more than their statistics would predict. Utah State has been just the opposite, as the Aggies have been 6.4 points worse on the scoreboard than their stats would predict. That would explain why BYU is favored by as much as they are. However, the question is how much of the difference between actual point margins and predicted point margins of these two teams is predictive going forward and how much is just variance. Certainly, it’s a bit of both but my math model gives Utah State a 61.9% chance of covering the spread with Garretson at quarterback and a 55.2% chance of covering with Keeton behind center. Those percentages take into account how much of the difference between actual scoring margins and predicted scoring margins are due to variance. I’ll take my chances with a very good defense getting a ton of points in a rivalry game and Utah State applies to a 139-79-6 ATS angle that plays on good defensive teams as big underdogs. BYU does apply to a 55-17-1 ATS big home favorite off a bye angle but that situation doesn’t work as well if the road team is also off a bye (just 5-3 ATS in that case) and the technical analysis is basically a wash. I’ll take Utah State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more and for 1-Star down to +17 ½ points.
**Buffalo (+5 ½) 40 BOWLING GREEN 37
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 355 Over/Under 76.5
These two teams have been all offense and no defense this season with Buffalo averaging 34 points and allowing 34 points per game and Bowling Green averaging 38 points and allowing 44 points per game despite allowing just 7 points in a win over VMI. This game could come down to whichever has the ball last and I certainly don’t mind taking the points with what appears to be the better team based on my ratings. Bowling Green has put up some big offensive numbers (502 yards per game) because the Falcons play at such a fast pace, but they’ve actually been 0.1 yards per play worse than average this season – averaging 6.0 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. The offense has been 0.2 yppl worse than average in 4 games since James Knapke took over at quarterback after veteran starter Matt Johnson was lost after just one game. That’s not much of a difference from a yards per play perspective but Johnson was an accurate passer that threw just 7 interceptions in 405 attempts as a starter the last two seasons while Knapke has already thrown 6 picks in 191 passes (3.1%) and that trend appears likely to continue given how many passes opponents have gotten their hands on that haven’t been picked off.
Buffalo has the better attack, as the Bulls have been 0.3 yppl better than average through 5 games, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Veteran quarterback Joe Licata has been consistently good, averaging 7.0 yards per pass play or higher in all 5 games, including against a very good Baylor defense. Licata also isn’t as turnover prone as his counterpart, having thrown just 15 interceptions in 739 career pass attempts (2.0%).
Defensively both teams have been equally bad, as Bowling Green 7.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team while Buffalo has given up 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense. Both teams aren’t actually as bad as those numbers, as Bowling Green’s stats are skewed by the 10.0 yard per play they gave up to Wisconsin while Buffalo’s stats are skewed by the 8.6 yppl they allowed to Baylor. Buffalo also isn’t going to continue to give up 19.4 yards per completion, which is basically impossible over the course of a season. The Bulls do play a style of defense that limits completions (just 52.0% completions allowed last year and only 49.6% allowed this season) but does allow teams to beat them over the top, allowing 14.6 yards per catch over the 3 years under their current defensive coordinator. Buffalo’s current 19.4 ypc is 6.4 standard deviations away from the national mean of 12.0 ypc and it’s 4.1 standard deviations away from Buffalo’s 3 year average, making it very unlikely (basically a 0% chance of continuing to be that bad) that teams will continue to average 19 yards a catch against them. I decided that it was reasonable to use the 15.6 ypc that Buffalo has allowed since the beginning of last season and making that adjustment would result in the Bulls being 0.9 yppl worse than average defensively. Even suggesting that Buffalo will allow 15.6 ypc going forward is a stretch given that only 5 out of 1225 teams have allowed 15.6 ypc or more over the course of an entire season since 2004 (16.6 ypc is the highest). But, I prefer to be cautious in my adjustments and 15.6 ypc seemed reasonable given Buffalo’s higher than normal ypc under their current coaching staff.
Adjusting for Bowling Green’s variance in rushing yards allowed (due to the 648 rushing yards at 11.4 yards per run they allowed to Wisconsin) would result in the Falcons’ defense being 1.2 yppl worse than average. Buffalo’s defense was 0.2 yppl better than Bowling Green’s defense before adjusting for the variance and they rate at 0.3 yppl better after the adjustments. Not only is Buffalo a bit better than Bowling Green on both offense and defense but I think Buffalo’s defensive style of play will work well against the Falcons’ style of attack. Bowling Green likes to control the ball with a no huddle offense full of short passes and Knapke doesn’t throw deep very often, which is evident in his low 10.4 yards per completion average. Buffalo’s problem is getting beat over the top but the Bulls only allow 50% completions and they should be able to limit Bowling Green’s aerial attack unless Knapke suddenly starts connecting on more deep passes. My model projects 6.8 yppl for Buffalo and 6.7 yppl for Bowling Green and there figures to be a lot of plays run in this game, which should lead to a lot of scoring. While Buffalo has a slight edge in yards per play, even on the road, and in projected turnovers, the Falcons have an advantage in special teams, which has been a problem for the Bulls. However, overall the math model gives Buffalo a 56.3% chance of covering based solely on the math and the chances are enhanced by a 46-108 ATS situation that applies to Bowling Green. I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 1-Star down to +3 points.
**WEST VIRGINIA (-26) 51 Kansas 16 - **OVER (54 ½)
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 336 Over/Under 52.5
The Charlie Weis era is over at Kansas but the Clint Bowen era doesn’t figure to start out any better. West Virginia had a week off last week to lick their wounds after a 33-45 loss to a very good Oklahoma team and the 2-2 Mountaineers will take no team for granted. Playing Kansas will seem like a walk in the park after facing the likes of Alabama (a competitive 23-33 loss), Maryland (a 3 point road win) and Oklahoma. The Mounties’ offense will have an especially easy time of hit today. It’s not that the Kansas defense is bad, since the Jayhawks are actually not much worse than average defensively, but rather that the level of competition will be so much easier for a potent West Virginia attack. The Mountaineers averaged 32 points on 540 yards at 6.3 yards per play in 3 FBS games against 3 very good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 4.7 yppl to an average attack. The Kansas defense has allowed 5.8 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. I actually rate the Jayhawks’ defense at just 0.4 yppl worse than average since the 10.1 yards per pass play that they allowed in their opener to SE Missouri State is most likely an aberration. However, I do expect West Virginia’s Clint Trickett to average close 10 yards per pass play today, as he’s averaged 8.3 yards per pass play (including sacks) against 4 teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The Kansas defense would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback so it’s certainly not a stretch to project Trickett to average close to 10 yards per pass play given that he’s averaged 8.3 yppp and is facing a team that is 1.3 yppp worse than the FBS teams he’s faced thus far. My math model projects West Virginia to gain 659 total yards in this game (even after adjusting Kansas’ defensive rating), which is not that crazy when you consider they’ve averaged 540 yards against 3 very good defensive teams.
The Kansas offense has averaged just 15.3 points and 5.0 yards per play this season against a slightly worse than average slate of opposing defenses that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack and today they face that same level of defense, as West Virginia would also allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team. I do expect Kansas to have success running the ball in this game given that West Virginia’s defense weakness is in their run defense (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average team). The problem for the Jayhawks is that they’ll have to throw the ball when they get behind and Kansas has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) while West Virginia has been 0.7 yppp better than average defending the pass. Kansas is projected to run for 235 yards but for just 353 yards at 4.6 yards per play. That won’t be enough to keep up with West Virginia’s potent attack.
Overall, the math favors West Virginia by 34 ½ points with a total of 67 points. The math model points toward plays on both West Virginia and the Over and I’ll split the bet into 2-Stars on West Virginia and 2-Stars on the Over. Kansas would probably have to score at least 17 points to cover the spread and they score 17 points or more then the game will likely go over the total since I don’t see how West Virginia will score less than 40 points given that they averaged 37.5 points per game against a schedule of teams that are 0.8 yards per play better defensively than Kansas. I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -28 points or less and I’ll play 2-Stars on the OVER at 58 points or less and for 1-Star up to 59 points. If the line on West Virginia moves higher than 28 points for a no play then add a Star to the Over as long as it still qualifies as a play.
**TEXAS STATE (-14 ½) 41 Idaho 18
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 398 Over/Under 66.5
Idaho’s foray back to the Sun Belt Conference started with a 10-34 defeat on home territory as a 3 point dog to South Alabama and Idaho is destined to fall again today. The Vandals are horrible on both sides of the ball, rating at 1.0 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) with a turnover prone freshman quarterback (8 interceptions in 4 games) trying to operate behind a horrible offensive line that’s allowed 4.5 sacks per game. The Texas State defense struggled against Navy and Illinois after dominating Arkansas Pine Bluff (so much that I excluded that game from my model) but the Bobcats played well defensively last week against Tulsa, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to an offense that would average 4.7 yppl at home against an average defensive team. Overall, in 3 games against FBS teams the Texas State defense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average, which is 0.3 yppl better than the Idaho offense, and my model is calling for just 5.1 yppl for the Vandals in this game with another 2 interceptions from freshman quarterback Matt Linehan.
The big advantage for the Bobcats in this game is when they have the ball, as experienced quarterback Tyler Jones is having an efficient season (70.4% completions and just 2 interceptions) while running back Robert Lowe is averaging 6.4 ypr. Those numbers were boosted by the close to 700 yards they racked up in their 65-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff and the Bobcats actually have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively against FBS opponents. However, the that attack should work very well against an Idaho defense that has allowed an average of 38 points on 490 yards per game at 7.4 yards per play despite facing 4 below average offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Texas State has a better offense than the average of Idaho’s opponents (UL Monroe, W. Michigan, Ohio, and S. Alabama) and my model projects 568 yards at 7.3 yppl for the Bobcats in this game even after adjusting Idaho’s horrible pass defense numbers (9.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 4.9 yppp) by 1.5 yppp to account for the variance in having allowed 17.3 yards per completion so far (a number that is unlikely to be as high going forward).
Idaho started the season with a competitive 31-38 loss as a 12 point dog at UL Monroe, but it turns out ULM is much worse than anticipated and since then the Vandals have lost by an average of 16 points while going 0-3 ATS against 3 other bad teams. Texas State is a bad team too, but the Bobcats have an offense that is good enough to take advantage of a horrible Idaho defense and their defense is better than Idaho’s offense. Texas State should win this game by 3 touchdowns or more and I’ll take Texas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and as a Strong Opinion at more than 17 points.
**Boise State (-2 ½) 31 NEVADA 20
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 415 Over/Under 50.5
Boise State is coming off an ugly 14-28 loss at Air Force in which the offense committed 7 turnovers. Nevada, meanwhile, is 3-1 with their only loss being by just 7 points at Arizona and the Wolf Pack have a win over Washington State. It appears as if Nevada is a pretty good team (they’re not) and Boise State’s upset loss to Air Force added to the line value we’re getting for this game. First off, for Boise to lose by only 14 points in a game in which they were -5 in turnovers is actually impressive and it’s certainly unlikely that normally accurate Broncos’ quarterback Grant Hedrick (70.0% completions) will have another multiple turnover game (he threw just 1 interception the previous 3 games). Hedrick won’t even have to throw the ball that often in this game, as Boise State’s Jay Ajayi, who has 557 rushing yards, should have a big game against a soft Nevada run defense that really hasn’t been fully taken advantage of – which his part of the reason the Wolf Pack have performed better than they really are. Nevada had one of the worst run defenses in the nation last season (7.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yprp against an average team) and, while the Wolf Pack are improved in that area, they are still bad against the run. This season Nevada has allowed 5.9 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.7 yprp against an average team, but they’ve faced teams that don’t really run the ball – with the exception of Arizona, who ran for 231 yards at 6.2 yprp against them. The win over Washington State was not that unexpected (I had a Strong Opinion on Nevada in that game) given that WSU throws the ball 80% of the time and wouldn’t take advantage of Nevada’s bad run defense and last week the Wolf Pack faced a San Jose State team without a rushing threat (the Spartans are 0.8 yprp worse than average). Boise State will absolutely take advantage of Nevada’s porous run defense, just as they did against Colorado State (339 yard at 6.4 yprp) and Louisiana Lafayette (305 yards at 7.1 yprp). My math model projects 6.6 yprp for Boise State in this game and for Hedrick to average a better than average 6.4 yards per pass play against a slightly worse than average Nevada pass defense. That projection is assuming that Broncos’ top receiver Matt Miller can play and would actually be 0.6 yppp worse without Miller, who sprained an ankle last week and was listed as questionable early in the week. Either way, the ground game will dominate Boise’s game plan and it should work really well.
Boise State actually has a bigger advantage with their defense going up against an overrated Nevada offense that is actually 0.9 yards per play worse than average. The Wolf Pack have managed just 5.2 yards per play in 4 games this season against a collection of defensive units that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. Nevada’s has averaged more than 5.4 yppl just once and that was the 5.8 yppl that they gained against a horrible Southern Utah defense that would allow 6.9 yppl on the road to an average FBS offense. The best defense that Nevada has faced belongs to Washington State, which is about average on a compensated yards per play basis, and the Wolf Pack averaged only 4.3. yppl in that game. Boise State is 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team), which is 0.6 yppl better than Washington State and 1.1 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the teams that Nevada has faced. Nevada has averaged only 25 points per game against that schedule of worse than average defensive teams and they are projected to score just 19 points on 298 yards at 4.2 yppl against Boise’s stout defense.
Nevada is projected to get outgained by 177 total yards and their projected +0.7 turnover margin won’t make up for that difference. I’ve been waiting for another chance to go against Nevada with a team that could exploit their bad run defense and Boise’s upset loss last week supplied us with the necessary line value to make this play. I did have some concerns about Boise State’s banged up secondary but their defense has played consistently well regardless of which players are back there and their only worse than average defensive performance was in week 1 when all 4 of their starting defensive backs were playing. There is apparently plenty of depth in the Boise State secondary based on how well they’ve played without most or all of their original starters. I also was going to wait to see if Matt Miller was clear to play but I ran the numbers assuming he’d miss the game and still got Boise State by 9 points if he doesn’t play (and by 12 points if he does play). Either way, there is more than enough line value to make this play and I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 1-Star all the way up to -6 points.
*Georgia State (+17) 30 UL LAFAYETTE 39
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 365 Over/Under 64.5
UL Lafayette was the overwhelming preseason pick to win the Sun Belt title with 3rd year starting quarterback Terrance Broadway and explosive RB Elijah McGuire returning along with 6 other offensive starters and 9 defensive starters. Thing haven’t gone according to plan for the Ragin’ Cajuns, as the offense has been far from explosive and the defense has been horrible. The loss of big play receiver Jamal Robinson for the last 2 ½ games helps explain part of the offensive woes and Robinson is scheduled to return to action this week. Robinson has averaged 10.3 yards per pass thrown to him since the start of last season and his return projects to an increase of 0.5 yards per pass play, which is about 1 ½ points. However, Broadway has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and he was 1.2 yppp worse than average in the 1 ½ games in which Robinson was healthy, averaging 6.7 yppp against teams that would allow 7.9 yppp before Robinson was injured. Even though Broadway was no better this season with Robinson than he’s been without him, I’ll assume that to be variance and will project a 0.5 yppp increase for Broadway in this game. That would get Lafayette up to average offensively and the Ragin’ Cajuns should have a very good offensive game against a bad Georgia State defense that’s allowed 6.0 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. My math model projects 505 total yards at 6.9 yppl for UL Lafayette in this game.
However, that isn’t likely to be enough offense to distance themselves from a very capable Georgia State offense that has been slightly better than average this season. The Panthers have averaged 30.3 points on 462 yards at 6.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, and they’ve scored 31 points or more in their 3 games against bad defensive teams Abilene Christian, New Mexico State, and Air Force. UL Lafayette’s defense is actually worse than the average of those 3 teams, as the Ragin’ Cajuns have surrendered 36 points per game on 471 yards at 6.6 yppl to 4 teams that would average just 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Those numbers include the 6 points and 4.0 yppl that they gave up to a horrible Southern offense in their opener and ULL has allowed over 500 total yards in each of their 3 games against FBS teams, including 48 points on 533 yards at 7.8 yppl to a mediocre Louisiana Tech offense. I’ve downgraded Georgia State’s offense due to the injury to leading rusher Kyler Neal, who joins former lead back Krysten Hammon on the sideline. Those two both averaged 5.2 ypr and the rest of the backs have combined for just 3.3 ypr, although against tougher competition since Neal and Hammon got the bulk of the carries against horrible defensive teams Abilene Christian and New Mexico State. It’s doubtful that the new running backs will be as bad as they’ve been, but I’ll assume they will be and that results in a decline of 0.8 yards per rushing play and 0.4 yards per play from Georgia State’s offensive rating. The Panthers are still just 0.3 yppl worse than average while UL Lafayette’s defense is 1.2 yppl worse than average and Georgia State is projected to rack up 467 yards at 6.3 yppl, which should get them around 30 points even if they continue to struggle in special teams (which costs them field position).
My math favors UL Lafayette by just 12 ½ points and the Ragin’ Cajuns apply to a negative 18-55 ATS first conference game angle that adds to Georgia State’s chances of covering. The Panthers have also proven to be a pesky underdogs, as evidenced by their perfect 8-0 ATS mark as a dog of more than 14 points since joining the FBS ranks last season. I’ll take Georgia State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
***AKRON (-23) 43 Eastern Michigan 9
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 358 Over/Under 49.5
Sometimes teams are so bad that the odds makers can’t make the spread high enough. Eastern Michigan appears to be such a team. Eastern Michigan opened the season with a 31-28 win over Morgan State but the Eagles were favored by 25 ½ points in that game and Morgan State is about 35 points worse than an average FBS team. What followed were 3 losses by a combined score of 17-155. I realize that two of those losses were to good teams Florida and Michigan State and the Eagles did cover in their 3-21 loss at Old Dominion, but that loss should have been worse and the game rating on that Old Dominion game was 29.5 points worse than average. Most alarming about that game is that their offense is so bad that they only scored 3 points against a bad Old Dominion defense. Overall, Eastern Michigan has been outgained by an average of 215 yards at just 3.3 yards per play to 503 yards at 6.9 yppl by 4 teams whose average rating is actually 2 points worse than an average FBS team.
Eastern Michigan’s offense is among the worst I’ve ever seen, averaging just 3.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl against an average team – and their numbers would be even worse if you only used their stats against their opponent’s starting defense. Akron’s defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, and the Zips’ stop unit is 0.7 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the Eagles’ opponents. Eastern Michigan has only averaged 12 points per game and they’re not likely to reach that low number today against a team that’s allowed just 19.8 points per game and shutout the only other really bad offense they’ve faced (a 41-0 win over Howard, who actually has a higher rated offense than Eastern Michigan). Akron did have one bad defensive game, allowing 48 points to Marshall’s potent attack, but the Zips also allowed an average of just 16.5 points in road games at Penn State and Pittsburgh, so they’ve mostly been very good.
The Akron offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average but the Zips should have pretty good field position most of this game and my model projects 518 total yards at 6.2 yppl for that unit in this game against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s given up 6.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense team.
I mentioned that there are some teams that are just so bad that they can’t make the number high enough. Well, Eastern Michigan applies to a negative 25-73-1 ATS situation that plays against really bad teams as road dogs of 21 points or more. I won bets going against Eastern Michigan in that angle twice last season – both 39 point losses to Northern Illinois and Toledo. My math model gives Akron a 58.0% chance of covering based solely on the math and the situation applying to Eastern Michigan enhances our chances. Also, teams that allowed more than 60 points and scored fewer than 28 points in their previous game are just 15-41-2 ATS as road underdogs of less than 50 points. I’ll take Akron in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -25 and for 1-Star up to -27 points.
***KANSAS STATE (-12 ½) 43 Texas Tech 20
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 360 Over/Under 68.0
We have a few things going for us in this game. Not only does Kansas State qualify as a math play at -14 points or less but the Wildcats apply to a very good 95-29 ATS home momentum situation while Texas Tech applies to a very negative 57-127-2 ATS situation. Those are two of my two most reliable angles and the record is 7-1 ATS for the home team when they both apply to the same game. Texas Tech was a in a very good situation last week (a 43-9-1 ATS situation applied to them) and they managed to get the final touchdown to cover in a 35-45 loss at Oklahoma State. An inexperienced defense (just 4 returning starters) continues to be a major problem for Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders have allowed an average of 39 points on 459 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Those aren’t horrible numbers, but they’re not good by major conference standards and my math model projects 495 yards at 6.3 yppl for a better than average Kansas State offense.
I’ll assume that Texas Tech will have quarterback Davis Webb behind center, as he’s practiced this week in full pads despite a dislocated shoulder in his non-throwing arm. I’ll even assume that the injury will have no ill effects and the Red Raiders’ pass heavy attack rates at 0.6 yards per play better than average with Webb at the controls (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team). This isn’t a perfect matchup for a Kansas State defense that excels as defending the run but the Wildcats have been 1.0 yppl better than average defensively even though opponents tend to throw more against them. My model projects a modest 5.4 yppl for Texas Tech in this game but the Red Raiders will run a lot of plays and are predicted to gain 407 total yards.
Overall, the math model gives Kansas State a 56% chance of covering after factoring in their projected edge in turnovers and far superior special teams, so we have a combination of a math play with two very strong situations that all point towards the Wildcats covering. I’ll take Kansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -16 points and for 1-Star at -16 ½ points.
***ARKANSAS STATE (-9) 33 UL Monroe 13
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 404 Over/Under 47.5
UL Monroe is 3-1 with the only loss being to LSU (0-31) and the Warhawks’ good looking record disguises the fact that they’re a bad team. Their 3 wins were by an average of just 5.3 points to 3 horrible teams (Wake Forest, Idaho, and Troy) and all 3 of those games were at home. Arkansas State is a solid team that has significant advantages over ULM on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Red Wolves have only played one bad game, a 20-41 loss on the road against an underrated Miami-Florida team, and their 19-34 loss at Tennessee was actually very competitive as they were out played from the line of scrimmage by just 4.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl by a pretty good Tennessee team that almost won at Georgia last week. Arkansas State’s other two games were a 37-10 home win over Montana State, a team that is in the same class as UL Monroe, and a 21-14 home win over Utah State – a team that is more than 10 points better than ULM. Let’s take a look at the match up.
The UL Monroe offense is horrible. The Warhawks have averaged just 4.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average team and they’ve been 1.5 yppl worse than average or more in all 4 of their games so far – so the pathetic play has been consistent. I don’t expect the Warhawks to generate many scoring opportunities in this game against a better than average Arkansas State defense that’s yielded just 5.3 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The Red Wolves gave up some big pass plays to Miami but they have allowed 5.1 yppl or less in their other 3 games, including give up just 5.0 yppl at Tennessee. UL Monroe is only averaging 19 points per game and Arkansas State is significantly better defensively than the average defensive rating of the Warhawks’ opponents. My math projects only 262 yards at 4.1 yppl for UL Monroe in this game, which will make it a challenge to top 14 points.
UL Monroe does have a solid defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl to an average team and that unit does have the edge over an Arkansas State attack that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Redhawks should improve a bit with top running back Michael Gordon returning to the lineup, as Gordon has averaged 6.6 yards per run in his career and was averaging 6.1 ypr on 14 runs this season before missing the last 2 ½ games. Arkansas State certainly isn’t likely to move the ball with ease, as my model projects a modest 391 yards at 5.2 yppl, but the Redhawks should enjoy a significant field position advantage due to UL Monroe’s horrible offense and a big advantage in special teams. Arkansas State is +5.4 yards in kickoff yard line average over their opponents and +2.0 yards in net punting average while UL Monroe is -1.6 yards in kickoff yard line average and has a -8.6 yard net punt differential. That stuff adds up and the extra field position will benefit the Redhawks in this game. Even if special teams are even the projected 129 total yards advantage and +0.7 projected turnover advantage would be enough to cover the spread here. This is a bad line and one of my math model’s favorite games this week. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -13 and for 1-Star at -13 ½ points.
**OVER (77 ½) – *OREGON (-23 ½) 59 Arizona 29
Thu Oct-02-2014 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 308 Over/Under 75.5
Oregon has a score to settle with Arizona, who beat them last season, and the Ducks’ offense will be salivating watching Arizona’s leaky defense on film this week. The Wildcats have allowed 5.9 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. The only better than average offensive team that Arizona has faced is California, who lit up the Cats to the tune of 45 points on 578 yards at 8.1 yppl. Cal has a very good offense but not nearly as good as Oregon’s attack, which has averaged 8.3 yards per play with quarterback Marcus Mariota in the game (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). The Ducks have averaged 48.5 points per game against a schedule with collectively is better defensively than Arizona and not only with Oregon have an easier time than normal moving the ball in this game but they’ll also have more possessions given how fast Arizona runs their offense. Oregon has scored those 48.5 points per game on just 68 plays per game and they’ve slowed down their scoring with big leads in a couple of games. Tonight the Ducks are projected to run 79 plays and I expect them to approach 60 points with no intention of letting up with revenge on their minds.
Oregon actually may not be able to afford to let up given Arizona’s likelihood of offensive success in this game. Arizona has a fast paced attack that has averaged 42 points on 583 yards at 6.9 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team (the yardage number exclude their lucky Hail Mary pass against Cal). I don’t project the Wildcats to reach those numbers in this game but it’s pretty clear that Oregon’s defense is not as good this season as it was under former legendary defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, who left the team after last season. Oregon’s defense has yielded just 21.3 points per game but that number belies the 444 total yards at 5.7 yards per play that the Ducks have allowed this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Oregon has only played well defensively in only one game (allowing just 5.6 yppl to a good Michigan State offense that would average 6.3 yppl on the road against an average team) and my math model projects 546 yards at 6.2 yppl for Arizona in this game. That won’t be enough to keep up with Oregon’s offense but it will be more than enough to give this game a strong chance to total over 80 points.
The opening total on this game (76 points) was based on a point model, as I also get 76 points using points. However, the problem with a points based model for this game is that it doesn’t take into consideration the added pace of this game. Both of these teams have up tempo, no huddle offenses and both average far fewer than 30 minutes of time of possession (TOP) per game with Arizona an average TOP of 28.5 minutes and Oregon with an average TOP of just 24.5 minutes. The opponents that have used up the rest of the 60 minutes in the games these teams have played don’t run their offenses as quickly, but in this case those extra minutes will be run at a fast pace regardless of which team has the ball. That will lead to more points than a points model would project. Also, a points model doesn’t take into account that Oregon’s 21.3 points per game allowed on 444 yards per game is randomly low and that the Ducks are likely to give up more points at a higher yards per point efficiency going forward. My model projects 88.6 total points based on the projected stats on this game and I still get 87.4 total points using each team’s offensive and defensive scoring efficiency numbers. I’ll go OVER 79 or fewer points in a 2-Star Best Bet and for 1-Star up to 81 points (3-Stars at 77 or less).
I also like Oregon in this game, as my model gives the Ducks a 56% chance of covering based solely on the math and a 117-69-2 ATS situation applies to the home team that is 61-16-1 ATS since 2004. I’d have played the side for more but it’s correlated to the total since the one thing that I’m pretty certain of is that Oregon will score a lot of points. I’ll play Oregon in a 1-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less.
**Utah State (+21) 20 BYU 31
Fri Oct-03-2014 at 07:15 PM Pacific Rotation: 313 Over/Under 51.5
Three touchdowns is a lot to give a team with a defense as good as Utah State’s defense. The Aggies starters have allowed just 4.2 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl and the most that Utah State has allowed in a game is the 5.0 yppl that they gave up to a better than average Tennessee offense in week 1 (the Vols would average 5.8 yppl at home against an average defense). BYU has a very good offense that has averaged 5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but the Cougars are projected to average a sub-par 5.3 yppl against the Aggies, who have a slight edge in that match up.
BYU does have an advantage with their defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl) going up against a sub-par Utah State attack that has been 0.8 yppl worse than average so far this season. However, the injury to starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton is a blessing for the Aggies given how bad Keeton was before he injured his knee in week 3. Keeton’s running was good (96 yards on 17 runs) but his tendency to settle for easy, check down passes (just 8.4 yards per completion) led to a horrible 4.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). Backup Darell Garretson is an upgrade overall, as Garretson’s compensated passing numbers have been much better than Keeton’s this season (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp) and they were better last season too before star WR Reynolds was injured late in the year). The rushing numbers get adjusted downward without Keeton but the passing numbers get adjusted upward and overall the offense is just 0.5 yppl worse than average with Garretson. There is a chance that Keeton may play, as he’s listed as questionable, and in that case the Aggies’ attack would be 1.1 yppl worse than average. Garretson could have success through the air against a BYU defense that is very good defending the run (3.4 yprp allowed) but a bit worse than average against the pass, allowing 5.4 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.1 yppp against an average defensive team. With Garretson the math model projects 335 yards at 4.5 yards per play but only 287 yards at just 3.8 yppl if Keeton is behind center. That’s a difference of about 5 points but there would still be value in favor of Utah State even if Keeton plays and is as ineffective as he’s been.
The projected statistics in this game would predict a BYU win of just 6.9 points with Garretson at quarterback and by 12.1 points with Keeton behind center. So why is BYU favored by 3 touchdowns? Well, BYU has been more efficient at turning their yards into points while their defense has kept teams from scoring as much as their statistics would project. Overall, BYU’s average margin of victory has been 8.7 points more than their statistics would predict. Utah State has been just the opposite, as the Aggies have been 6.4 points worse on the scoreboard than their stats would predict. That would explain why BYU is favored by as much as they are. However, the question is how much of the difference between actual point margins and predicted point margins of these two teams is predictive going forward and how much is just variance. Certainly, it’s a bit of both but my math model gives Utah State a 61.9% chance of covering the spread with Garretson at quarterback and a 55.2% chance of covering with Keeton behind center. Those percentages take into account how much of the difference between actual scoring margins and predicted scoring margins are due to variance. I’ll take my chances with a very good defense getting a ton of points in a rivalry game and Utah State applies to a 139-79-6 ATS angle that plays on good defensive teams as big underdogs. BYU does apply to a 55-17-1 ATS big home favorite off a bye angle but that situation doesn’t work as well if the road team is also off a bye (just 5-3 ATS in that case) and the technical analysis is basically a wash. I’ll take Utah State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more and for 1-Star down to +17 ½ points.
**Buffalo (+5 ½) 40 BOWLING GREEN 37
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 355 Over/Under 76.5
These two teams have been all offense and no defense this season with Buffalo averaging 34 points and allowing 34 points per game and Bowling Green averaging 38 points and allowing 44 points per game despite allowing just 7 points in a win over VMI. This game could come down to whichever has the ball last and I certainly don’t mind taking the points with what appears to be the better team based on my ratings. Bowling Green has put up some big offensive numbers (502 yards per game) because the Falcons play at such a fast pace, but they’ve actually been 0.1 yards per play worse than average this season – averaging 6.0 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. The offense has been 0.2 yppl worse than average in 4 games since James Knapke took over at quarterback after veteran starter Matt Johnson was lost after just one game. That’s not much of a difference from a yards per play perspective but Johnson was an accurate passer that threw just 7 interceptions in 405 attempts as a starter the last two seasons while Knapke has already thrown 6 picks in 191 passes (3.1%) and that trend appears likely to continue given how many passes opponents have gotten their hands on that haven’t been picked off.
Buffalo has the better attack, as the Bulls have been 0.3 yppl better than average through 5 games, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Veteran quarterback Joe Licata has been consistently good, averaging 7.0 yards per pass play or higher in all 5 games, including against a very good Baylor defense. Licata also isn’t as turnover prone as his counterpart, having thrown just 15 interceptions in 739 career pass attempts (2.0%).
Defensively both teams have been equally bad, as Bowling Green 7.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team while Buffalo has given up 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense. Both teams aren’t actually as bad as those numbers, as Bowling Green’s stats are skewed by the 10.0 yard per play they gave up to Wisconsin while Buffalo’s stats are skewed by the 8.6 yppl they allowed to Baylor. Buffalo also isn’t going to continue to give up 19.4 yards per completion, which is basically impossible over the course of a season. The Bulls do play a style of defense that limits completions (just 52.0% completions allowed last year and only 49.6% allowed this season) but does allow teams to beat them over the top, allowing 14.6 yards per catch over the 3 years under their current defensive coordinator. Buffalo’s current 19.4 ypc is 6.4 standard deviations away from the national mean of 12.0 ypc and it’s 4.1 standard deviations away from Buffalo’s 3 year average, making it very unlikely (basically a 0% chance of continuing to be that bad) that teams will continue to average 19 yards a catch against them. I decided that it was reasonable to use the 15.6 ypc that Buffalo has allowed since the beginning of last season and making that adjustment would result in the Bulls being 0.9 yppl worse than average defensively. Even suggesting that Buffalo will allow 15.6 ypc going forward is a stretch given that only 5 out of 1225 teams have allowed 15.6 ypc or more over the course of an entire season since 2004 (16.6 ypc is the highest). But, I prefer to be cautious in my adjustments and 15.6 ypc seemed reasonable given Buffalo’s higher than normal ypc under their current coaching staff.
Adjusting for Bowling Green’s variance in rushing yards allowed (due to the 648 rushing yards at 11.4 yards per run they allowed to Wisconsin) would result in the Falcons’ defense being 1.2 yppl worse than average. Buffalo’s defense was 0.2 yppl better than Bowling Green’s defense before adjusting for the variance and they rate at 0.3 yppl better after the adjustments. Not only is Buffalo a bit better than Bowling Green on both offense and defense but I think Buffalo’s defensive style of play will work well against the Falcons’ style of attack. Bowling Green likes to control the ball with a no huddle offense full of short passes and Knapke doesn’t throw deep very often, which is evident in his low 10.4 yards per completion average. Buffalo’s problem is getting beat over the top but the Bulls only allow 50% completions and they should be able to limit Bowling Green’s aerial attack unless Knapke suddenly starts connecting on more deep passes. My model projects 6.8 yppl for Buffalo and 6.7 yppl for Bowling Green and there figures to be a lot of plays run in this game, which should lead to a lot of scoring. While Buffalo has a slight edge in yards per play, even on the road, and in projected turnovers, the Falcons have an advantage in special teams, which has been a problem for the Bulls. However, overall the math model gives Buffalo a 56.3% chance of covering based solely on the math and the chances are enhanced by a 46-108 ATS situation that applies to Bowling Green. I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 1-Star down to +3 points.
**WEST VIRGINIA (-26) 51 Kansas 16 - **OVER (54 ½)
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 336 Over/Under 52.5
The Charlie Weis era is over at Kansas but the Clint Bowen era doesn’t figure to start out any better. West Virginia had a week off last week to lick their wounds after a 33-45 loss to a very good Oklahoma team and the 2-2 Mountaineers will take no team for granted. Playing Kansas will seem like a walk in the park after facing the likes of Alabama (a competitive 23-33 loss), Maryland (a 3 point road win) and Oklahoma. The Mounties’ offense will have an especially easy time of hit today. It’s not that the Kansas defense is bad, since the Jayhawks are actually not much worse than average defensively, but rather that the level of competition will be so much easier for a potent West Virginia attack. The Mountaineers averaged 32 points on 540 yards at 6.3 yards per play in 3 FBS games against 3 very good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 4.7 yppl to an average attack. The Kansas defense has allowed 5.8 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. I actually rate the Jayhawks’ defense at just 0.4 yppl worse than average since the 10.1 yards per pass play that they allowed in their opener to SE Missouri State is most likely an aberration. However, I do expect West Virginia’s Clint Trickett to average close 10 yards per pass play today, as he’s averaged 8.3 yards per pass play (including sacks) against 4 teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The Kansas defense would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback so it’s certainly not a stretch to project Trickett to average close to 10 yards per pass play given that he’s averaged 8.3 yppp and is facing a team that is 1.3 yppp worse than the FBS teams he’s faced thus far. My math model projects West Virginia to gain 659 total yards in this game (even after adjusting Kansas’ defensive rating), which is not that crazy when you consider they’ve averaged 540 yards against 3 very good defensive teams.
The Kansas offense has averaged just 15.3 points and 5.0 yards per play this season against a slightly worse than average slate of opposing defenses that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack and today they face that same level of defense, as West Virginia would also allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team. I do expect Kansas to have success running the ball in this game given that West Virginia’s defense weakness is in their run defense (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average team). The problem for the Jayhawks is that they’ll have to throw the ball when they get behind and Kansas has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) while West Virginia has been 0.7 yppp better than average defending the pass. Kansas is projected to run for 235 yards but for just 353 yards at 4.6 yards per play. That won’t be enough to keep up with West Virginia’s potent attack.
Overall, the math favors West Virginia by 34 ½ points with a total of 67 points. The math model points toward plays on both West Virginia and the Over and I’ll split the bet into 2-Stars on West Virginia and 2-Stars on the Over. Kansas would probably have to score at least 17 points to cover the spread and they score 17 points or more then the game will likely go over the total since I don’t see how West Virginia will score less than 40 points given that they averaged 37.5 points per game against a schedule of teams that are 0.8 yards per play better defensively than Kansas. I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -28 points or less and I’ll play 2-Stars on the OVER at 58 points or less and for 1-Star up to 59 points. If the line on West Virginia moves higher than 28 points for a no play then add a Star to the Over as long as it still qualifies as a play.
**TEXAS STATE (-14 ½) 41 Idaho 18
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 398 Over/Under 66.5
Idaho’s foray back to the Sun Belt Conference started with a 10-34 defeat on home territory as a 3 point dog to South Alabama and Idaho is destined to fall again today. The Vandals are horrible on both sides of the ball, rating at 1.0 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) with a turnover prone freshman quarterback (8 interceptions in 4 games) trying to operate behind a horrible offensive line that’s allowed 4.5 sacks per game. The Texas State defense struggled against Navy and Illinois after dominating Arkansas Pine Bluff (so much that I excluded that game from my model) but the Bobcats played well defensively last week against Tulsa, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to an offense that would average 4.7 yppl at home against an average defensive team. Overall, in 3 games against FBS teams the Texas State defense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average, which is 0.3 yppl better than the Idaho offense, and my model is calling for just 5.1 yppl for the Vandals in this game with another 2 interceptions from freshman quarterback Matt Linehan.
The big advantage for the Bobcats in this game is when they have the ball, as experienced quarterback Tyler Jones is having an efficient season (70.4% completions and just 2 interceptions) while running back Robert Lowe is averaging 6.4 ypr. Those numbers were boosted by the close to 700 yards they racked up in their 65-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff and the Bobcats actually have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively against FBS opponents. However, the that attack should work very well against an Idaho defense that has allowed an average of 38 points on 490 yards per game at 7.4 yards per play despite facing 4 below average offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Texas State has a better offense than the average of Idaho’s opponents (UL Monroe, W. Michigan, Ohio, and S. Alabama) and my model projects 568 yards at 7.3 yppl for the Bobcats in this game even after adjusting Idaho’s horrible pass defense numbers (9.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 4.9 yppp) by 1.5 yppp to account for the variance in having allowed 17.3 yards per completion so far (a number that is unlikely to be as high going forward).
Idaho started the season with a competitive 31-38 loss as a 12 point dog at UL Monroe, but it turns out ULM is much worse than anticipated and since then the Vandals have lost by an average of 16 points while going 0-3 ATS against 3 other bad teams. Texas State is a bad team too, but the Bobcats have an offense that is good enough to take advantage of a horrible Idaho defense and their defense is better than Idaho’s offense. Texas State should win this game by 3 touchdowns or more and I’ll take Texas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and as a Strong Opinion at more than 17 points.
**Boise State (-2 ½) 31 NEVADA 20
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 415 Over/Under 50.5
Boise State is coming off an ugly 14-28 loss at Air Force in which the offense committed 7 turnovers. Nevada, meanwhile, is 3-1 with their only loss being by just 7 points at Arizona and the Wolf Pack have a win over Washington State. It appears as if Nevada is a pretty good team (they’re not) and Boise State’s upset loss to Air Force added to the line value we’re getting for this game. First off, for Boise to lose by only 14 points in a game in which they were -5 in turnovers is actually impressive and it’s certainly unlikely that normally accurate Broncos’ quarterback Grant Hedrick (70.0% completions) will have another multiple turnover game (he threw just 1 interception the previous 3 games). Hedrick won’t even have to throw the ball that often in this game, as Boise State’s Jay Ajayi, who has 557 rushing yards, should have a big game against a soft Nevada run defense that really hasn’t been fully taken advantage of – which his part of the reason the Wolf Pack have performed better than they really are. Nevada had one of the worst run defenses in the nation last season (7.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yprp against an average team) and, while the Wolf Pack are improved in that area, they are still bad against the run. This season Nevada has allowed 5.9 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.7 yprp against an average team, but they’ve faced teams that don’t really run the ball – with the exception of Arizona, who ran for 231 yards at 6.2 yprp against them. The win over Washington State was not that unexpected (I had a Strong Opinion on Nevada in that game) given that WSU throws the ball 80% of the time and wouldn’t take advantage of Nevada’s bad run defense and last week the Wolf Pack faced a San Jose State team without a rushing threat (the Spartans are 0.8 yprp worse than average). Boise State will absolutely take advantage of Nevada’s porous run defense, just as they did against Colorado State (339 yard at 6.4 yprp) and Louisiana Lafayette (305 yards at 7.1 yprp). My math model projects 6.6 yprp for Boise State in this game and for Hedrick to average a better than average 6.4 yards per pass play against a slightly worse than average Nevada pass defense. That projection is assuming that Broncos’ top receiver Matt Miller can play and would actually be 0.6 yppp worse without Miller, who sprained an ankle last week and was listed as questionable early in the week. Either way, the ground game will dominate Boise’s game plan and it should work really well.
Boise State actually has a bigger advantage with their defense going up against an overrated Nevada offense that is actually 0.9 yards per play worse than average. The Wolf Pack have managed just 5.2 yards per play in 4 games this season against a collection of defensive units that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. Nevada’s has averaged more than 5.4 yppl just once and that was the 5.8 yppl that they gained against a horrible Southern Utah defense that would allow 6.9 yppl on the road to an average FBS offense. The best defense that Nevada has faced belongs to Washington State, which is about average on a compensated yards per play basis, and the Wolf Pack averaged only 4.3. yppl in that game. Boise State is 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team), which is 0.6 yppl better than Washington State and 1.1 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the teams that Nevada has faced. Nevada has averaged only 25 points per game against that schedule of worse than average defensive teams and they are projected to score just 19 points on 298 yards at 4.2 yppl against Boise’s stout defense.
Nevada is projected to get outgained by 177 total yards and their projected +0.7 turnover margin won’t make up for that difference. I’ve been waiting for another chance to go against Nevada with a team that could exploit their bad run defense and Boise’s upset loss last week supplied us with the necessary line value to make this play. I did have some concerns about Boise State’s banged up secondary but their defense has played consistently well regardless of which players are back there and their only worse than average defensive performance was in week 1 when all 4 of their starting defensive backs were playing. There is apparently plenty of depth in the Boise State secondary based on how well they’ve played without most or all of their original starters. I also was going to wait to see if Matt Miller was clear to play but I ran the numbers assuming he’d miss the game and still got Boise State by 9 points if he doesn’t play (and by 12 points if he does play). Either way, there is more than enough line value to make this play and I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 1-Star all the way up to -6 points.
*Georgia State (+17) 30 UL LAFAYETTE 39
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 365 Over/Under 64.5
UL Lafayette was the overwhelming preseason pick to win the Sun Belt title with 3rd year starting quarterback Terrance Broadway and explosive RB Elijah McGuire returning along with 6 other offensive starters and 9 defensive starters. Thing haven’t gone according to plan for the Ragin’ Cajuns, as the offense has been far from explosive and the defense has been horrible. The loss of big play receiver Jamal Robinson for the last 2 ½ games helps explain part of the offensive woes and Robinson is scheduled to return to action this week. Robinson has averaged 10.3 yards per pass thrown to him since the start of last season and his return projects to an increase of 0.5 yards per pass play, which is about 1 ½ points. However, Broadway has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and he was 1.2 yppp worse than average in the 1 ½ games in which Robinson was healthy, averaging 6.7 yppp against teams that would allow 7.9 yppp before Robinson was injured. Even though Broadway was no better this season with Robinson than he’s been without him, I’ll assume that to be variance and will project a 0.5 yppp increase for Broadway in this game. That would get Lafayette up to average offensively and the Ragin’ Cajuns should have a very good offensive game against a bad Georgia State defense that’s allowed 6.0 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. My math model projects 505 total yards at 6.9 yppl for UL Lafayette in this game.
However, that isn’t likely to be enough offense to distance themselves from a very capable Georgia State offense that has been slightly better than average this season. The Panthers have averaged 30.3 points on 462 yards at 6.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, and they’ve scored 31 points or more in their 3 games against bad defensive teams Abilene Christian, New Mexico State, and Air Force. UL Lafayette’s defense is actually worse than the average of those 3 teams, as the Ragin’ Cajuns have surrendered 36 points per game on 471 yards at 6.6 yppl to 4 teams that would average just 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Those numbers include the 6 points and 4.0 yppl that they gave up to a horrible Southern offense in their opener and ULL has allowed over 500 total yards in each of their 3 games against FBS teams, including 48 points on 533 yards at 7.8 yppl to a mediocre Louisiana Tech offense. I’ve downgraded Georgia State’s offense due to the injury to leading rusher Kyler Neal, who joins former lead back Krysten Hammon on the sideline. Those two both averaged 5.2 ypr and the rest of the backs have combined for just 3.3 ypr, although against tougher competition since Neal and Hammon got the bulk of the carries against horrible defensive teams Abilene Christian and New Mexico State. It’s doubtful that the new running backs will be as bad as they’ve been, but I’ll assume they will be and that results in a decline of 0.8 yards per rushing play and 0.4 yards per play from Georgia State’s offensive rating. The Panthers are still just 0.3 yppl worse than average while UL Lafayette’s defense is 1.2 yppl worse than average and Georgia State is projected to rack up 467 yards at 6.3 yppl, which should get them around 30 points even if they continue to struggle in special teams (which costs them field position).
My math favors UL Lafayette by just 12 ½ points and the Ragin’ Cajuns apply to a negative 18-55 ATS first conference game angle that adds to Georgia State’s chances of covering. The Panthers have also proven to be a pesky underdogs, as evidenced by their perfect 8-0 ATS mark as a dog of more than 14 points since joining the FBS ranks last season. I’ll take Georgia State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
