Service Plays Friday 10/23/09

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DUNKEL
Minnesota at St. Louis

The Blues look to build on their 10-3 record in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. St. Louis is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 1-2: Florida at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.701; Pittsburgh 13.192
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-240); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-240); Under

Game 3-4: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.062; St. Louis 12.180
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Under

Game 5-6: Carolina at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.225; Colorado 11.646
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-115); Over
 
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NHL WRITE-UP

Friday, October 23

Hot Teams
-- Penguins won last six games, outscoring opponents 26-11.
-- Avalanche won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Panthers lost five of their last six games.
-- Wild are 0-6 on the road, outscored 22-11. Blues lost four of their last five games.
-- Carolina lost its last four games, outscored 14-7; they're 0-4 on road.

Series Records
-- Penguins won seven of last ten games against Florida.
-- Blues won three of four against Minnesota LY.
-- Avalanche won two of last three games against Carolina.

Totals
-- Under is 3-0-1 in Penguins' last four games.
-- Three of last four Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Carolina's last five games.
 

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DOMINIC FAZZINI


The Seminoles' victory Thursday gives me three wins in four days
And I'm going to continue piling up the profits as we head into the weekend!

FRIDAY'S WINNER

College Football Bankroll Builder
10 Dime
Rutgers - Army

9-4 run on all college football plays
5-1 over the past six Fridays

 

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Steve Merril
Friday NCAA Over/Under - Rutgers/Army

Rutgers vs. Army (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Total: 38.5/-111 Under Play Title:

Rutgers has played below average football on offense this season. The Scarlet Knights are averaging 29 points per game, but their average is inflated because in the two games they played against I-AA opponents, Rutgers scored 87 points. In their other 4 games against I-A opponents, Rutgers has scored a total of 89 points. So, in reality, this team is only averaging 22 points per game which is a full touchdown less than their seasonal average suggests. Overall on offense, Rutgers is averaging just 5.4 yards per play (versus teams that allow 6.1 yppl). Defensively, Rutgers has played pretty well. They are only allowing 18 points per game (versus teams that average 22 ppg). Their run defense has been excellent, holding teams to just 92 yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry, and facing the triple-option of Army, a good rush defense is a key characteristic to have. Army’s offense has also underperformed this season. The Black Knights are only averaging 18 points per game (versus teams that allow 27 ppg). Their passing game is virtually non-existent as they throw for just 66 yards per game on 5.0 yards per pass attempt. Overall, their offense averages only 4.4 yards per play (versus teams that allow 5.5 yppl). This year’s Army defense has impressed their opponents. Temple head coach Al Golden called Army the best defense they’ve seen other than Penn State. Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano said they remind him of the early-90’s Arizona “Desert Swarm” defense. Army’s front seven is loaded with speed and they’ve been outstanding, especially defensive end Josh McNary who is tied for second in the nation with 9½ sacks. Both teams have better defenses than offenses and both teams are starting true freshman quarterbacks, Tom Savage for Rutgers and Trent Steelman for Army. Rutgers and Army also love to run the football which keeps the clock rolling and limits possessions making this a low scoring game.

Play UNDER the total.
 

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ST. LOUIS -½ +1.07 over Minnesota Pinnacle

The Blue Notes have dropped four of five and are coming off an ugly 5-1 loss to the champs. That loss and its current funk sure isn’t going to sit well with anyone, as these Blues are too determined and to talented to go into an extended bad run. Now they’ll take a huge step down in class when facing perhaps the leagues most disappointing club thus far. The Wild have just two wins in eight games and zero wins in regulation time. On the road they’re a perfect 0-5 and they’ve been outscored 20-10. After the first line of Koivu, Havlat and Brunette, the Minnesota offense is non-existent. Shut down that line and you pretty much can’t lose. Pierre Marc Bouchard remains out of the line-up. Anyway, the Blues have to be feeling extremely hungry after coming out extremely flat against the Penguins and they couldn’t have handpicked a riper opponent. Play: St. Louis -½ +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Randall the Handle

ARMY +10½ over Rutgers PINNACLE
Rutgers season hasn’t exactly gone as planned and as it turns out quarterback play has been its major undoing. Throughout this college football season we have repeatedly seen teams with good talent lose games because of inefficient quarterback play and Rutgers is no different. After getting blitzed at home in Week 1 against Cincinnati, Rutgers turned the QB job over to true freshman Tom Savage. Savage has predictably been shielded from making any big plays by the coaching staff and as a result of the conservative play calling Rutgers is dead last in the Big East in passing yards at 192 yards a game. The offense is way too inconsistent and unpredictable to lay points against a team that employs a run oriented offense in Army. Army is one of the last teams in D-I to employ a strict run-oriented offense and that works to their advantage when catching double-digit points. Army has thrown for a grand total of 463 yards this season, instead using the run to keep games close and control time of possession. While this run-first offense certainly can’t be used to win every game, the matchup against offensively challenged Rutgers this week certainly works in Army’s favor. Army has beaten SEC opponent Vanderbilt on the road and aside from a 31-10 defeat to Iowa State its defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game all year. Army will run their system, bleed the clock and keep Rutgers off the field. Rutgers has only played one road game this year against awful Maryland and really hasn’t shown any reason to lay double-digit points on the road. Army has beat a BCS team this season and don’t think they can’t do it again. Play: Army +10½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
 

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Doc

6U Georgia Tech -5.5
5U Michigan +4.5
5U Tennessee +14
4U Arkansas State -10.5
4U Louisville +18
4U Under 43 Minnesota/ Ohio State
4U Boise St -24.5
 

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Dominic Fazzini
Dominic Fazzini Friday's play 10 Dime -- Rutgers (minus points vs. ARMY)

RUTGERS

The Scarlet Knights have owned the Black Knights since 1991, winning nine of 11 meetings, including four straight since 2002. And the past two games have produced a combined score of 71-9.

Army's offense is one-dimensional, relying almost entirely on its running game, ranking 12th in the nation on the ground at 222.6 yards per game, but averaging just 73.4 yards through the air. Rutgers' defense thrives against the running game, however, allowing just 91.5 yards per game.

The Scarlet Knights just played under the Friday night lights last week in a 24-17 loss at Pittsburgh, so they have had a normal week of practice and know the routine of playing a Friday night game on national television.

Rutgers freshman QB Tom Savage is 4-1 as a starter, and has completed 57.3 percent of his passes for 941 yards and five touchdowns with one interception. He should be able to throw against Army on what is supposed to be a pleasant night weather-wise.

The Black Knights lost 27-13 at Temple as a 10 1/2-point underdog Saturday, as the Owls pulled away with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Rutgers is 6-0 ATS against Army, including 3-0 at West Point, and the Scarlet Knights are 14-6 ATS on the road and 10-4 as a double-digit favorite. And the Black Knights are 2-7 ATS overall, 1-5 at home and 7-19-1 as a home underdog. Take Rutgers to cover the points on the road tonight and produce an easy victory.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS:103631605
 

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Karl Garrett
10 DIMER - ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS 10 DIMER - ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS

Let's face facts, if this game were being played on Saturday, chances are I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole, but since it is the only game on the dance card, and I LOVE ACTION, I am all over it!

I say take the points, as my feeling is backing a true-frosh QB on the road laying double-digits is just asking for trouble. Granted, Army is pretty limited in what they can do, but new coach Rich Ellerson has matched last season's win total already with 3 straight up wins, and Army has shown moxy in nearly all of their games this season.

This is a rare chance for national tv exposure, and my feeling is the host will not disappoint, as they give Greg Schiano's team a run for their money before bowing by a TD or so.

The line has been steadily climbing, so I suggest waiting a little while to get maximum line value on the doggie in this one.

Take the points!





BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS:103631605
 

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If anyone interested in Chris Jordan picks:

Chris Jordan Friday's winner ...
100♦ SIX-POINT TEASER RUTGERS and OVER - Analysis on this play back by 4 p.m. eastern
 
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Jason Sharpe

Rutgers at Army
Pick: Army +10.5

Solid home dog here as Army gets the home national TV game against Rutgers. Army holds a considerable rushing edge over Rutgers. Good rushing teams at home as underdogs have been nice profitable plays the past decade. Rutgers though 4-2, have had the luxury of having all their games but one at home. This speaks volumes on how much have badly underachieved this season. They are 1-5 against the spread this year. They have struggled in the favorite role through the years as they are just 24-32. Getting double digits on a dog with a total under 40 should a +ev play in CFB. Enough factors pointing to Army in this one, we will take them
 

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Ben Burns
Play Title ***THE BIG ONE*** Burns' BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!
Play Selected Point Spread: -20.5/-110
I'm laying the points with USC. *10 Blowout GOY
 
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Wise Guys 10/23/09

PICK: Rutgers Your pick will be graded at: -10.5 Belmont EXPERT: Wise Guys TITLE: SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE WEEK - NCAAF REASON FOR PICK:

(305) RUTGERS at (306) ARMY 8:00 PM

The Covers Wiseguys received information from a handful of offshore stages that the Sharp money was trickling in on Rutgers, this after decoy money came in on Army early allowing the line to move below 10. Enough money has trickled in on the Scarlet Knights, a two possession favorite, to prevent Sharp Syndicates from burying Rutgers.

It's unlikely the Jersey bunch will move to much more than 10-point chalk even if the comparable stats justify so, but they are a top play of the Week heading into Saturday full slate of action.

Rutgers receives its second straight national spotlight in as many weeks, this time on the road against a sluggish Army squad. The Scarlet Knights trail in the all-time series 18-17, but have covered the last six in a row.

There is no forgiving Army for being dominated by Greg Schiano's crew as Rutgers has found the victory column in the last four matchups by 30 points per contest. Army isn't very good, and even though they have improved under Rich Ellerson they have been dominated as a home dog (13-28-1 ATS).

Additionally when Rutgers closes as a double-digit favorite they cover nearly 66% of the time (15-8 ATS) making them one of the best bets this week against the Vegas line.

Consider the following:

1. Favorite has covered the spread 18 times in this series, while the underdog has cashed on six times.
2. Rutgers is 18-3 ATS when they allow less than 250 total yards winning by an average margin of 30 points. Army averages 285 yards of offense at home this year.

(9* VALUE PLAY) TOP WEEKDAY NCAAF PLAY ON RUTGERS
 

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The Prez 10/23/09

PICK: Rutgers Your pick will be graded at: -10 WSEX EXPERT: The Prez TITLE: PREZ' SUPREME COURT CFB GOW *HUGE 5-1 RUN* REASON FOR PICK:

SUPREME COURT CFB GAME OF THE WEEK
(305) RUTGERS at (306) ARMY 8:00 PM

Rutgers gets a game outside of the Big East on Friday night, their second straight ESPN appearance. Rutgers is 4-2 on the year with their two loses coming against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, easily the two best teams in the conference.

It's reasonable to compare Army's offensive scheme to that of Georgia Tech, save the blue-chip talent. The Black Knight's are also led by a freshman, QB Trent Steelman, who still lacks the game savvy of a seasoned upperclassman. The fact that Steelman leads the team in rushing with only 405 yards (3.5 yards per carry) speaks volumes to his complete understanding of the offense.

Rutgers rush defense has allowed less than 92 yards per game, a difficult matchup for Army.

Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a visitor and sport a 5-0 ATS mark in their last five meetings with Army. Rutgers is also 18-3 ATS when they hold the opposition to less than 250 total yards of offense.

9* Play on Rutgers (buy the .5 point to -9.5 if necessary)
 

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