King Creole
2** WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS plus the points versus Stanford Cardinal
The host Cardinal come into this weekday game off two extremely tough road games in a row. The Dawg Pound was AGAINST ‘em last week in South Bend, Indiana… and we’ll fade ‘em again on Friday night. One can definitely understand if Stanford looks past this game and takes their foot off the gas pedal a little. They did very LITTLE offensively in those last two road games. Remember, one of their ONLY touchdowns last week was off a Everitt Golson fumble at the Stanford 10-yard line. The OTHER TD was off a turnover that gave the Cardinal a short field. They finished with ONLY 205 total offensive yards in that loss. It appears that QB Kevin Hogan is actually regressing as of late. They may have a 3-2 SU record on the year, But against-the-spread, Stanford is only 1-4 ATS on the year… with the only cover against Army (and by only 5 points). The CARDINAL has gone 1-9 A‚TS since 1993 as favorites of < 30 points when playing off a SU favorite loss.
Meanwhile, the quick-strike, ultra fast-paced offense of Washington State has been the ULTIMATE ‘play on’ BIG dog in Conference play. The COUGARS have gone 19-3 ATS since 2010 as conference underdogs of 11 or more points. That includes 11-1 ATS in the last four seasons. They come into Friday’s game after rolling up a massive 812 offensive yards in last week’s home loss versus California. ALL FOUR of their games this season against FBS teams have been decided by 7 or fewer points. QB Connor Halliday threw for a NCAA RECORD 734 yards last week! He’s on pace to break single-season FBS records for passing attempts in a year (which is 719) and passing yards in a year (which is 5833).
When two teams are both off SU fav losses, we always want to grab the points… 0-12 ATS last 10 years: All home favorites of 54 > pts off a SU non-conference FAVORITE loss (Standord) versus any opponent ALSO off a SU FAVORITE loss (WASH ST).
In the Cougars shocking home loss to Cal last week, the final score was like a Big 10 basketball game (60 to 59)… 8-1-1 ATS last two years: All NCAA teams playing off a SU Loss in which the scored AND allowed 50 or more points (WASH ST).
Washington State won’t leave anything in the tank for this one. They have a BYE the next week… 15-3 ATS since 1996: All WEEKDAY college football DOUBLE-DIGIT conference underdogs (COUGARS) before a Bye Week. These teams have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing off a SU loss (COUGARS).
When teams from the PAC 12 Conference are playing a Weekday game, we ALWAYS look to grab the points… 4-18 ASTS since 1993: All PAC 12 (or Pac 10) .500 or greater WEEKDAY home favorites (Stanford). These teams have gone 2-16 ATS as favorites of < 23 points… and 1-9 ATS versus any opponent off a SU loss.
And finally, BIG favs on Fridays (in ANY conference) are prime ‘play against’ teams… 3-16 ATS since 1996: All FRIDAY Conference home favorites of -10 > points (Stanford) playing after a non-conference game. These teams have gone a PERFECT 0-9 ATS vs any opponent off a SU loss (like the COUGS).