THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh (3-1, 2-1 ATS) at Louisville (1-2, 1-1 ATS)
Pitt tries to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it travels to Louisville for a battle with the Cardinals in the Big East opener for both teams.
The Panthers routed their first three opponents by a combined 119-44, then went to North Carolina State on Saturday and squandered a 14-point lead with less than 20 minutes to play, losing 38-31 in a pick-em contest. Pitt got outgained 530-300 in the defeat, including 208-94 on the ground, and lost the time-of-possession battle 37 minutes to 23 minutes.
This is the fifth straight year these squads have met, and after Louisville won the first three clashes by a combined 53 points, Pitt got revenge in a big way last year, rolling 41-7 as a six-point home favorite. The Panthers forced four turnovers (two defensive scores) in the victory, which actually ended Pitt’s seven-game losing streak to the Cardinals that dated to 1990. The Panthers have cashed each of the last two years after going 1-5 ATS in the first six meetings, and the favorite is 3-1 ATS in the last four.
Louisville followed up a competitive 31-27 loss at instate rival Kentucky with a 30-14 blowout defeat at Utah on Saturday, failing to cover as a 14-point road underdog. The Cardinals, who have lost seven consecutive games to Division I-A foes (1-6 ATS), got whipped all over the field by Utah, which had a 416-261 edge in total yards (214-80 rushing) and forced three Louisville turnovers.
Behind QB Bill Stull (65.6 percent completion rate, 746 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT), Pitt’s offense is putting up 37.5 points and 360 yards (154 rushing) per game. The defense is allowing 20.5 points and 351.8 yards per outing, including 112.5 rushing ypg (2.9 yards per carry).
Long known for an explosive offense, the Cardinals have now scored 21 points or fewer in six of their last eight games, and they’re averaging 23.7 points and just 352.7 total yards (223 passing) per contest. Meanwhile, after holding Division I-AA Indiana State to 10 points and 101 total yards in a season-opening win, the defense has surrendered 31 and 30 points and an average of 381 yards the last two weeks.
Pitt is in the midst of ATS slumps of 5-12 as a favorite, 0-4 against teams with a losing record and 16-35 after a SU defeat, but Dave Wannstedt’s squad is 4-1 ATS in its last five October clashes. Louisville is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home ‘dog, but otherwise is on pointspread slides of 1-6 overall, 0-5 in Big East play, 2-5 in Big East home games, 1-5 on Friday, 1-5 as an underdog and 1-5 against winning teams.
The Panthers carry “over” trends of 5-2 on the road, 5-0 as a road chalk, 9-4 in conference play, 5-2 on Friday and 5-2 as a favorite. Similarly, Louisville is on “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 after a SU loss and 4-0 when playing on grass. However, the under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Utah State (1-2, 2-0 ATS) at (20) BYU (3-1 SU and ATS)
Utah State hits the road for the third time in four games this season, making the short trek to Provo, Utah, for a non-conference clash with the 20th-ranked Cougars.
The Aggies got spread-covers as a 20½-point underdog in season-opening road losses at Utah (35-17) and Texas A&M (38-30), then came home on Saturday and pounded Southern Utah 53-34 in a non-lined game. Going back to the start of the 2003 season, Utah State is 15-57 SU against Division I-A foes and has lost 13 consecutive non-conference games to I-A competition, but the Aggies have covered in seven straight lined contests (6-0 ATS as an underdog).
BYU rebounded from an ugly 54-28 home loss to Florida State with Saturday’s 42-23 victory over Mountain West Conference rival Colorado State, barely cashing as an 18-point home favorite. The Cougars actually got outgained 438-373 by the Rams, and the defense has now given up 950 yards the last two weeks, while QB Max Hall has tossed five interceptions.
The Cougars rolled past Utah State 34-14 last year, but failed to cover as a 29-point road favorite. BYU has won 25 of 28 in this rivalry since 1975, including the last nine in a row. The teams have split the cash over those nine contests at 4-4-1 ATS, with the Aggies going 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven (all as a big underdog). The host is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.
BYU’s Hall now has as many interceptions (eight) as TD passes, but he’s still completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 1,185 yards. Meanwhile, Utah State’s Diondre Borel has 52.1 completion rate for 771 yards with four TDs and one INT, while adding 111 rushing yards and three scores on the ground.
In addition to its ATS runs of 7-0 overall and 6-0 as a ‘dog, Utah State is on further pointspread rolls of 16-6 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 11-4 as a road pup, 5-1 against Mountain West opponents and 4-0-1 after a SU win. Meanwhile, BYU in ATS declines of 6-11 overall, 5-8 as a favorite, 1-6 when laying 20 points or more, 1-4 at home, 2-7 after a SU win, 2-5 against Western Athletic Conference opponents, 1-4-1 on Friday and 0-5 in October.
The over is 3-1-1 in Utah State’s last five overall, 3-0-1 in its last four on the road (all as an underdog), 5-1 in BYU’s last six overall and 4-0 in BYU’s last four as a favorite. Conversely, the under is on streaks of 3-0-1 for the Aggies in October, 5-1 for the Cougars in October and 3-1-1 for the Cougars on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH STATE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Colorado (91-68) at L.A. Dodgers (93-66)
The struggling Dodgers try once again to wrap up the N.L. West title when they open a season-ending three-game home series against the Rockies, who have clinched at least a wild-card berth and can still catch Los Angeles in the division. L.A.’s Randy Wolf (11-6, 3.27 ERA) is slated to oppose Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez (14-12, 3.52) tonight.
Colorado finished off a three-game sweep of the Brewers on Thursday, prevailing 9-2 to earn a postseason berth for second time in three years. The Dodgers have also punched their playoff ticket despite losing four in a row and six of eight on a just-concluded road trip to Washington, Pittsburgh and San Diego. They’re now just two games up on the Rockies in the division with three to play, meaning L.A. needs one win in this series to capture its second straight N.L. West title and relegate Colorado to the wild card.
The Rockies have won four in a row and five of six after going 4-7 in their previous 11 contests. However, Colorado has dropped five straight road games against southpaw starters, eight of 11 against winning clubs and 10 of 12 when facing a winning opponent on the highway.
The Dodgers, who were one-hit in Wednesday’s 5-0 loss in San Diego, have scored a total of two runs in the last three games and are batting .230 as a team over their last 10 contests. Joe Torre’s team has lost four of its last five on Friday and five of its last seven after a day off, but it is 5-1 in its last six at home and 6-2 in its last eight against right-handed starters.
Los Angeles has owned Colorado this year, going 12-3, including 5-1 at Dodger Stadium. In fact, the Dodgers are 49-23 in the last 72 head-to-head battles in Hollywood.
Jimenez gave up four runs on six hits in seven innings in Saturday’s 6-3 home loss to the Cardinals. He’s surrendered 12 runs (11 earned) in his last three outings covering 16 2/3 innings (5.94 ERA). Still, the Rockies are 8-3 in Jimenez’s last 11 starts overall, and 22 of the right-hander’s last 26 outings have been quality starts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 16 of those 26 contests.
Colorado is just 11-25 in Jimenez’s last 36 road starts, where he’s 6-7 with a 3.69 ERA this season. Also, Jimenez is 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers in 2009, with the Rockies losing all four games by a combined score of 32-15. For his career, Jimenez is 4-3 with a 6.38 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) against the Dodgers, including 1-1 with a 9.13 ERA in five starts at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers have won four straight and nine of 10 games started by Wolf since Aug. 6, with the southpaw going 6-0 with a 2.73 ERA during this stretch. He got a no-decision on Saturday at Pittsburgh, yielding two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings, with L.A. prevailing 8-4 by scoring five runs in the final two innings.
With Wolf on the hill, the Dodgers are on runs of 19-7 overall, 21-7 at home, 5-1 against the N.L. West, 5-0 on Friday and 13-3 when he faces an opponent with a winning record. He’s 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 17 home starts this year (L.A. is 13-4), and he’s 5-2 with a 4.05 ERA in 12 career starts against Colorado, including 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three games this year (all Dodgers victories).
The under is 9-2 in Jimenez’s last 11 starts overall, 4-1 in his last five on the road, 8-2 in his last 10 on Friday and 4-1 in his last five against the N.L. West, but nine of his 10 career starts against Los Angeles – including four of five at Dodger Stadium – have topped the posted total. Also, with Wolf pitching, the Dodgers are on “over” runs of 4-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 at home and 5-1-1 against divisional foes.
The over is 5-2 in Colorado’s last seven road games and 4-1 in its last five series openers, while Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 8-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-2 against the N.L. West and 6-0 against winning teams. However, the last six Dodgers-Rockies battles have stayed under the total, as have six of the last eight meetings at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (77-82) at Detroit (85-74)
After blowing an opportunity to punch their postseason ticket on Thursday, the Tigers give it another shot tonight when they send All-Star Edwin Jackson (13-8, 3.36 ERA) to the mound at Comerica Park, while the White Sox counter with Jake Peavy (2-0, 2.25).
Detroit could’ve wrapped up the A.L. Central title Thursday afternoon against second-place Minnesota, but the Tigers lost 8-3. That dropped Detroit’s divisional lead to two games with three to play for each team, meaning any combination of two Detroit wins or Minnesota losses sends the Tigers to the playoffs.
In splitting the critical four-game set with the Twins, the Tigers are now 7-4 in their last 11 games (all versus the A.L. Central) after going 3-9 in the previous 12 to allow Minnesota back in the race. Detroit is 35-17 in its last 52 at Comerica, but it has lost six of its last seven series openers.
Chicago was off Thursday after taking two of three at Cleveland to start this week and it has won four of six following a 1-7 nosedive. The White Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 after a day off, but otherwise they’re in funks of 12-26 on the road, 9-19 on Friday, 2-6 against winning teams and 21-48 on the highway against winning squads.
Detroit holds a slim 8-7 edge in the season series with the White Sox, who have won three of the last four meetings. The host is 6-2 in the last eight clashes, with the Tigers winning four of the last five in their ballpark.
Peavy was dominant in a 2-0 home win over Detroit a week ago tonight, scattering six hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings. He’s allowed three runs and nine hits in 12 innings with a 13-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first two starts with the White Sox, both at home. In addition to last Friday’s 2-0 win, Peavy’s only other start against the Tigers came with the Padres in interleague play in 2005, and he gave up five runs (three earned) in six innings of an 8-4 road loss.
Jackson has been hit hard in three of his last four starts, giving up five runs in all three of those poor performances. That includes an 8-4 loss at the White Sox on Sunday, when he surrendered the five runs in seven innings. Jackson is 3-3 with a 5.16 ERA in seven starts since Aug. 26, including 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA at home. Still, for the season, the right-hander is 7-2 with a 3.73 ERA at Comerica Park.
Jackson has made seven career starts against Chicago, going 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA, including 0-1 with a 4.74 ERA in three games this year. The White Sox are 5-2 all-time when facing Jackson.
For Chicago, the under is on stretches of 45-21-1 overall, 34-15-2 on the road, 19-9 in divisional games, 4-1 on Friday, 4-1 after a day off and 40-19-2 against winning teams. Conversely, Detroit carries “over” trends of 4-1-1 overall (all within the division), 8-2-1 at home, 13-4-1 on grass, 8-3-2 against right-handed starters, 4-0 when Jackson starts at home and 5-1 when Jackson faces A.L. Central rivals.
The under is 11-4 in this rivalry this year and 45-20-4 over the last seven-plus seasons when these teams meet in Detroit
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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