Sportswagers
Columbus @ TORONTO
Columbus +118 over TORONTO
OT included. The Leafs loss to Washington on Wednesday was certainly no surprise, as Washington came in hot and Toronto was returning home from a 7-game trip. The Maple Leafs actually outshot Washington 33-26 for one of the rare times this entire year that Toronto outshot its opponent. So, while the score suggests the Maple Leafs were flat upon returning home, the below the surface stats says they were not flat at all. They lost 6-2 because Jonathan Bernier didn’t stand on his head and Braden Holtby did. Despite having just two wins in its past 10 games, Toronto is playing no worse or better right now than they’ve been playing all year and it’s not rocket science. When Bernier plays outstanding, Toronto has a great chance of winning and when he doesn’t, they lose and there is no in between. In that regard, there isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict how Bernier will perform tonight but there is plenty of evidence to how the Maple Leafs will perform. Chances are the Leafs will get badly outplayed again by a more talented and hard-working club. Toronto can change coaches as often as it likes but it makes no difference whatsoever because they have a minor-league defense in which only one of their defenseman, Cody Franson is of NHL caliber. The rest (Phaneuf, Gardiner Rielly, Robidas, Polak) should be either retired, on waivers or in the case of Rielly and Gardiner, back in the minors for more seasoning. These guys are all getting extensive minutes and that’s why Bernier has to be absolutely great for Toronto to win.
The Jackets are actually healthier right now than they’ve been the entire year. The Jackets were showing signs of being a real force in the second half of last year but this season they fell off the map again because of a horrible start. That poor start can be attributed to nothing but a bevy of key injuries but that’s now past them and they are making a move. Five weeks ago, the playoffs seemed like a prayer for the Jackets but a strong run of 12 wins in 15 games has them right back in the thick of it. A win tonight and the Jackets pull to within four points of a playoff spot. The Jackets have allowed two goals or less in nine of those 15 games while scoring three or more in their last five games. Columbus’s slow start and poor record has them underpriced. Had they been healthy all season, chances are they would be among the top teams in the East or at the very least, one of the top six teams. Incidentally Sergei Bobrovsky has a 1.72 GAA and .931 save percentage in seven career contests against the Maple Leafs. If we’re sticking to our philosophy of playing value and letting the chips fall where they may, the Jackets are a must play here.
Our Pick
Columbus +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)
Chicago @ EDMONTON
EDMONTON +184 over Chicago
OT included. With points in three of their past four games, the Oilers are playing much better since they made a coaching change. As long as their goaltending holds up and plays decent, Edmonton can win plenty of games in the second half because they have the talent to do so. We’re anticipating Ben Scrivens getting the call tonight but we will wait until he’s confirmed to make this wager because there is no chance of Victor Fasth getting our money. As soon as the goaltender for this one is confirmed, we’ll update our wager. Just to be clear, if Scrivens is in net, we’re stepping in and if he’s not, we’re going to pass.
This play is more about fading Chicago in an extremely difficult spot than it is about backing the Oilers. We played the Blackhawks in Minnesota last night and were rewarded with a 4-2 victory after Niklas Backstrom allowed three goals on 19 shots and Chicago added an empty netter. Minnesota played their hearts out last night in outshooting Chicago 44-20 but once again it was Minnesota’s goaltending that prevented them from winning. It’s not often that you see the Blackhawks running around in their own end but these players are not machines and fatigue plays a part in a grueling, 82-game schedule. That was the case last night for Chicago and they figure to be even more fatigued here. This is Chicago’s fifth game in nine days. It’s also their third game in four days and tail-end of back-to-backs. These frigid days make traveling even more draining. It was -18 C in Minnesota yesterday and it’s -24 C in Edmonton today. The Blackhawks were completely gassed in the third period last night so we can’t imagine for a second that they’ll be full of energy here, 24 hours later. Upsets happen all the time and they happen because these guys are not robots. They have good days and bad days just like the rest of us and when you add that human element of fatigue into this equation it strongly suggests an upset is a distinct possibility.
UPDATE: 1:30 PM EST. Scrivens is indeed the confirmed starter, thus our play here is official.
Our Pick
Edmonton +184 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.68)
Florida @ CALGARY
Florida +129 over CALGARY
OT included. We’re big supporters of the Flames. We can see this team being a force for years because they have as much as or more young talent than almost any team in the NHL. Calgary is exciting to watch and its work ethic takes a backseat to nobody. The Flames are exactly the type of team that you want to be behind when you are taking back a tag but as the chalk in this price range, they are still too risky, especially with Jonas Hiller in goal. Hiller was very good at the start of the year and had some outstanding seasons with the Ducks but have you watched him play recently? Seriously, Hiller looks almost lost out there. He’s battling almost every puck fired his way. He looks slow and he looks bewildered. Right now, Hiller is high on our list of goaltender fades and he’s a big reason why we’re fading the Flames in this one. Furthermore, Calgary has scored two goals or fewer in 10 of its last 14 games and that, too, makes them a big risk when spotting weight.
Florida is coming off a 3-1 victory in Vancouver last night but had not played since January 4th prior to last night so fatigue should be a non-issue. The Panthers have won 11 of their past 19 games and have picked up points in 14 of those 19 games. The Panthers are one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the league in terms of preventing goals. They have allowed just 65 goals against in 5-on-5 play, which ranks 6th in the league. Florida took six minor penalties last night and killed off all six, however that time spent in the box was uncharacteristic. Prior to serving 12 minutes in minor penalties last night, Florida had gone four straight games of taking two minor penalties or less and they have done that in seven of their last 11 games. This is a disciplined team with structure that is certainly in the hunt for a playoff spot. Calgary has lost six in a row to Eastern opponents, which may suggest they prepare better for Western teams. Calgary has Vancouver in tomorrow. In any event, we like the value on Florida here and we also like playing against Hiller.
Our Pick
Florida +129 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.58)
Season to date NHL:
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | +0.28 |
| Last 30 Days | 26 | 28 | 0.00 | +7.70 |
| Season to Date | 84 | 100 | 0.00 | +9.21 |
