Vegas Runner
Allright Fellas...There are definitely some Early Moves that my own Numbers/Ratings support to have plenty of Value, and definitely worth taking a position...And the toughest task so far has not been locating one, instead, it's been choosing which one to isolate and*pass along in today's blog...
And which to hold back and continue trying to gather even more supporting information...so we can add them to tonight's Premium Client Card...Which will Include a 3* BOOKIE BET (81-44 for 65% on "125" Bets)...
So you can see that it's going to be an extremely fun few days...As we look to close out January as strong as possible, and add to our 2010 profit...
Now let's move on to Tonight's CBB Bet...and see if we can knock down another Winner...We are "12-6" in CBB so far this week...And for another consecutive week, RANKED #1 at The Sports Monitor for "MOST MONEY WON"...VR
*
CBB "TRUE STEAM" for FRIDAY 1-29-10 :
1.) HARVARD vs COLUMBIA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)
CRIS was the first off-shore book to offer a Total on this Ivy League Match-Up, and when they put it up at 132 a little after 5pm est on Thursday...I was a bit surprised...The reason for this is because although I made my "Fair Line" 134.5....I had made my "True Line" 137...And to be perfectly honest, even then I felt I could have went 1/2 Pt higher...
Now what surprised me was that we all know these Ivy League games get very little "volume" from the betting public...And the majority of action usually comes from the Wiseguys on these type of games...So usually, the oddsmakers will not weigh in "public perception" as heavily, and instead...put out a line that best refelects their actual ratings...
This is what surprised me, because I felt that anything less than 134...would be based more on the "perception" of these 2 teams, and not the actual strength...Because even though 2 of the L/3 in this series*didn't crack 120 pts...this year's version of both squads*is a bit different...More importantly, with Columbia's L/2 games having gone Under the Total...while 4 straight for Harvard have done the same...it seems to support the "perception" angle...
I believe that when you really look into it, this match-up has the potential to break 140...if the tempo is dictated by Harvard...which I expect it will...
And it appears that my initial read was agreed on by the Betting Syndicates, who bet the Over 132 at Cris...
And forced them to adjust this Total up to 133 in less than 2 minutes...And that is where the rest of the off-shore books, went ahead and opened the Total for this game...And where it closed last night...
Then early this morning, after having some more time to work on the match-up...it appears that the Wiseguys agreed that there was still some value there, and once again got down on Over 133...This prompted a move to 133.5, where once again...we saw the Outfits hit the Over one more time...And we've since seen the books go to 134, which is where the Vegas sports books that offer totals on these type of match-ups...went ahead and offered it...
According to my "True Line"...by betting Over 134, you are still getting the best of it...Which is pretty much all you can ever ask for when you place a wager and take a position...VR
LINE PREDICTION : At first, I felt that there was a good chance we would begin*to see*this Total drop some...Because it was obvious the Betting Syndicates got their desired amount down already...at Over 132, 133, & 133.5...So as they backed off, and the betting public began giving the books some action on the Under...I expected that they would go ahead and lower it, and attempt to give the bettors the worst of it...
And even shut down any attempts at a "middle" or "buy-back" that would be profitable...But since I've already seen Pinny go to 134.5...as well as a handful of locals who always over-adjust for "steam", who have gone as high as 135...I wouldn't be surprised if this line stays put...
With that said, don't let any line-move against us scare you...Because there are plenty of manuevers made by both, the sports books and the Wiseguys...And in this case, I can assure you that the "True Position" of those Betting Syndicates...is on the OVER...
Best of Luck, and Thanks again for your continued support...Vegas-Runner.
Allright Fellas...There are definitely some Early Moves that my own Numbers/Ratings support to have plenty of Value, and definitely worth taking a position...And the toughest task so far has not been locating one, instead, it's been choosing which one to isolate and*pass along in today's blog...
And which to hold back and continue trying to gather even more supporting information...so we can add them to tonight's Premium Client Card...Which will Include a 3* BOOKIE BET (81-44 for 65% on "125" Bets)...
So you can see that it's going to be an extremely fun few days...As we look to close out January as strong as possible, and add to our 2010 profit...
Now let's move on to Tonight's CBB Bet...and see if we can knock down another Winner...We are "12-6" in CBB so far this week...And for another consecutive week, RANKED #1 at The Sports Monitor for "MOST MONEY WON"...VR
*
CBB "TRUE STEAM" for FRIDAY 1-29-10 :
1.) HARVARD vs COLUMBIA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)
CRIS was the first off-shore book to offer a Total on this Ivy League Match-Up, and when they put it up at 132 a little after 5pm est on Thursday...I was a bit surprised...The reason for this is because although I made my "Fair Line" 134.5....I had made my "True Line" 137...And to be perfectly honest, even then I felt I could have went 1/2 Pt higher...
Now what surprised me was that we all know these Ivy League games get very little "volume" from the betting public...And the majority of action usually comes from the Wiseguys on these type of games...So usually, the oddsmakers will not weigh in "public perception" as heavily, and instead...put out a line that best refelects their actual ratings...
This is what surprised me, because I felt that anything less than 134...would be based more on the "perception" of these 2 teams, and not the actual strength...Because even though 2 of the L/3 in this series*didn't crack 120 pts...this year's version of both squads*is a bit different...More importantly, with Columbia's L/2 games having gone Under the Total...while 4 straight for Harvard have done the same...it seems to support the "perception" angle...
I believe that when you really look into it, this match-up has the potential to break 140...if the tempo is dictated by Harvard...which I expect it will...
And it appears that my initial read was agreed on by the Betting Syndicates, who bet the Over 132 at Cris...
And forced them to adjust this Total up to 133 in less than 2 minutes...And that is where the rest of the off-shore books, went ahead and opened the Total for this game...And where it closed last night...
Then early this morning, after having some more time to work on the match-up...it appears that the Wiseguys agreed that there was still some value there, and once again got down on Over 133...This prompted a move to 133.5, where once again...we saw the Outfits hit the Over one more time...And we've since seen the books go to 134, which is where the Vegas sports books that offer totals on these type of match-ups...went ahead and offered it...
According to my "True Line"...by betting Over 134, you are still getting the best of it...Which is pretty much all you can ever ask for when you place a wager and take a position...VR
LINE PREDICTION : At first, I felt that there was a good chance we would begin*to see*this Total drop some...Because it was obvious the Betting Syndicates got their desired amount down already...at Over 132, 133, & 133.5...So as they backed off, and the betting public began giving the books some action on the Under...I expected that they would go ahead and lower it, and attempt to give the bettors the worst of it...
And even shut down any attempts at a "middle" or "buy-back" that would be profitable...But since I've already seen Pinny go to 134.5...as well as a handful of locals who always over-adjust for "steam", who have gone as high as 135...I wouldn't be surprised if this line stays put...
With that said, don't let any line-move against us scare you...Because there are plenty of manuevers made by both, the sports books and the Wiseguys...And in this case, I can assure you that the "True Position" of those Betting Syndicates...is on the OVER...
Best of Luck, and Thanks again for your continued support...Vegas-Runner.
RINKPLAY SPORTS:
they supposedly have some 5* Hockey day in Canada big ass POD tomorrow, so keep an eye out for that fade.
2* Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals Over 6
2* Detroit Red Wings over Nashville Predators
2* Tampa Bay Lightning and Anaheim Ducks Under 5.5
Free Selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Colorado Avalanche
they supposedly have some 5* Hockey day in Canada big ass POD tomorrow, so keep an eye out for that fade.
2* Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals Over 6
2* Detroit Red Wings over Nashville Predators
2* Tampa Bay Lightning and Anaheim Ducks Under 5.5
Free Selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Colorado Avalanche
Denver Money's NHL Friday 1/29
Hopefully we got back on track yesterday when we went 2-1 on the day. Best of luck if you fade or follow:
Toronto @ New Jersey:
When the Maple Leafs travel to New Jersey tonight we can actually say we could see a decent match-up. If this game was being played earlier in the season one would expect an easy win by the Devils. New Jersey however comes into the game winning only 3 of their last 10 games. Devils are returning home after a 3 game road trip and this game could be just what they need to get back on track. Toronto on the other hand continues to play poorly this season and coming in riding a four game losing streak and losing 8 of their last 10 games. These two teams will face off 3 times in the next 8 days with two of the games being in New Jersey. The Maple Leafs did win 3 or 4 meetings last season versus the Devils including both games in New Jersey.
The Devils are playing on 1 day rest and this season with 1 day rest they are 17-8-0. Also when playing on one day rest after a loss they are 5-4 this season. The O/U in this situation is 7-17. As for the Maple Leafs they will be playing on 2 days rest. Leafs are 3-9-2 this season when playing on two days rest and 3-6-2 following a loss in the previous game. The O/U in this situation for them has been 3-10.
Toronto this season on the road has averaged 2.76 goals while allowing an average of 3.76 goals. One are the Maple Leafs have struggled is with penalty kills on the road. So far this season they have a 68.4% penalty kill. As for them on the power play, they have scored 19 goals in 107 attempts for a 17.8%. Toronto as an underdog this season the Leafs average 2.74 goals while allowing an average of 3.53 goals against them. New Jersey this season at home is averaging 2.76 goals while allowing only 2.12 goals against average. The Devils have been more consistent with penalty kills this season with a 81.7%. As for the power play goals, the Devils have scored 17 goals on 95 attempts for 17.9%. New Jersey as a favorite this season have averaged 2.64 goals while allowing an average of 2.12 goals scored against.
In the net tonight we should see Gustavsson vs. Brodeur. Gustavsson could get his forth straight start tonight with the struggles of Toskla. Gustavsson this season is 9-12-8 with a save % of .901 and 1 shutout. He has allowed an average of 2.98 goals against this season. Brodeur on the other hand has been one of the top goalies this season and should be in the net tonight for the Devils. Brodeur is 31-16-2 this season with a .921 save % and league leading 7 shutouts. Brodeur has allowed an average of 2.17 GAA.
2* New Jersey Devils -1.5 +155
2* Toronto / New Jersey UNDER 5.5 -120
2* Florida / Washington OVER 6 -120
Denver Money's CBB Friday 1/29
Coming off a 5-0 sweep yesterday and 9-2 last two days let's see if we can keep it rolling today. I will probably have 1 other play, but wanted to get this game posted before line moves anymore.
Harvard -8.5 -110
Hopefully we got back on track yesterday when we went 2-1 on the day. Best of luck if you fade or follow:
Toronto @ New Jersey:
When the Maple Leafs travel to New Jersey tonight we can actually say we could see a decent match-up. If this game was being played earlier in the season one would expect an easy win by the Devils. New Jersey however comes into the game winning only 3 of their last 10 games. Devils are returning home after a 3 game road trip and this game could be just what they need to get back on track. Toronto on the other hand continues to play poorly this season and coming in riding a four game losing streak and losing 8 of their last 10 games. These two teams will face off 3 times in the next 8 days with two of the games being in New Jersey. The Maple Leafs did win 3 or 4 meetings last season versus the Devils including both games in New Jersey.
The Devils are playing on 1 day rest and this season with 1 day rest they are 17-8-0. Also when playing on one day rest after a loss they are 5-4 this season. The O/U in this situation is 7-17. As for the Maple Leafs they will be playing on 2 days rest. Leafs are 3-9-2 this season when playing on two days rest and 3-6-2 following a loss in the previous game. The O/U in this situation for them has been 3-10.
Toronto this season on the road has averaged 2.76 goals while allowing an average of 3.76 goals. One are the Maple Leafs have struggled is with penalty kills on the road. So far this season they have a 68.4% penalty kill. As for them on the power play, they have scored 19 goals in 107 attempts for a 17.8%. Toronto as an underdog this season the Leafs average 2.74 goals while allowing an average of 3.53 goals against them. New Jersey this season at home is averaging 2.76 goals while allowing only 2.12 goals against average. The Devils have been more consistent with penalty kills this season with a 81.7%. As for the power play goals, the Devils have scored 17 goals on 95 attempts for 17.9%. New Jersey as a favorite this season have averaged 2.64 goals while allowing an average of 2.12 goals scored against.
In the net tonight we should see Gustavsson vs. Brodeur. Gustavsson could get his forth straight start tonight with the struggles of Toskla. Gustavsson this season is 9-12-8 with a save % of .901 and 1 shutout. He has allowed an average of 2.98 goals against this season. Brodeur on the other hand has been one of the top goalies this season and should be in the net tonight for the Devils. Brodeur is 31-16-2 this season with a .921 save % and league leading 7 shutouts. Brodeur has allowed an average of 2.17 GAA.
2* New Jersey Devils -1.5 +155
2* Toronto / New Jersey UNDER 5.5 -120
2* Florida / Washington OVER 6 -120
Denver Money's CBB Friday 1/29
Coming off a 5-0 sweep yesterday and 9-2 last two days let's see if we can keep it rolling today. I will probably have 1 other play, but wanted to get this game posted before line moves anymore.
Harvard -8.5 -110
Tom Freese
Bobcats at Warriors
Pick: Bobcats -1.5
Golden St is 4-10 straight up their last 14 games. Monta Ellis scores 26 points a game along with 5.6 assists a game. Forward Corey Maggette scores 20.5 points a night and grabs 6.1 rebounds. Point guard Stephen Curry scores 14 points and dishes out 4.6 assists a game. Forward Kelenna Azubuike scores 13 points a night. Anthony Randolph and Anthony Morrow score 11.6 and 11.5 points a game. The Warriors are allowing over 111 points a game and they are 2-9 ATS after allowing 120 or more points in their last game. Charlotte is playing great basketball going 12-5 straight up their last 17 games. Stephen Jackson was traded from Golden St to Charlotte because he wasn't getting along with head coach Don Nelson. Jackson scores 21.1 points a game and he is just what Charlotte needed. Forward Gerald Wallace scores 18.6 points and 11 rebounds a night. Point guard Raymond Felton scores 12.5 points and dishes out 5.3 assists a game. The Bobcats scoring 94.6 points a game while allowing 93.4 points a game. LINESMAKERS ERROR PLAY ON CHARLOTTE
Bobcats at Warriors
Pick: Bobcats -1.5
Golden St is 4-10 straight up their last 14 games. Monta Ellis scores 26 points a game along with 5.6 assists a game. Forward Corey Maggette scores 20.5 points a night and grabs 6.1 rebounds. Point guard Stephen Curry scores 14 points and dishes out 4.6 assists a game. Forward Kelenna Azubuike scores 13 points a night. Anthony Randolph and Anthony Morrow score 11.6 and 11.5 points a game. The Warriors are allowing over 111 points a game and they are 2-9 ATS after allowing 120 or more points in their last game. Charlotte is playing great basketball going 12-5 straight up their last 17 games. Stephen Jackson was traded from Golden St to Charlotte because he wasn't getting along with head coach Don Nelson. Jackson scores 21.1 points a game and he is just what Charlotte needed. Forward Gerald Wallace scores 18.6 points and 11 rebounds a night. Point guard Raymond Felton scores 12.5 points and dishes out 5.3 assists a game. The Bobcats scoring 94.6 points a game while allowing 93.4 points a game. LINESMAKERS ERROR PLAY ON CHARLOTTE
