Friday's action
15 Dime: ALABAMA (minus the points vs. Utah in the Sugar Bowl)
5 Dime: OLE MISS (plus the points vs. Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl)
5 Dime: UCLA (minus the points vs. Oregon State in College Hoops)
Alabama
There’s no doubt that the Crimson Tide’s players are extremely disappointed that they couldn’t finish off their perfect season against Florida and get to the BCS Championship game. And that disappointment would concern me greatly if Nick Saban had a roster chockfull of seniors, the kind who might come into this Sugar Bowl flat after seeing their only shot at a national championship go up in flames. But Saban’s team is extremely young, and that youth works to Alabama’s advantage in this game. For one thing, young players tend to show up for bowl games because the experience is unique to them. For another, those young players know they have two or three more cracks at winning a national championship (and with the talent Saban has in place and on the way in the form of top-notch recruits, I have little doubt that Alabama will win it all in the next few years).
So here’s the point to all this: If Alabama does show up and play with the kind of intensity they did through their first 13 games, then I have no doubt that they’ll crush Utah, which has had a fine season but could – and probably should – have three losses. More than that, though, the Utes haven’t seen the kind of size and speed they’ll encounter tonight against Alabama.
Think about it: In addition to destroying a solid Clemson team in the season opener, the Crimson Tide went through a grueling SEC schedule that included games against Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida, and they finished averaging more than 31 points and 367 yards per game (including nearly 200 rushing yards per game), while Alabama’s Top 5 defense surrendered just 13 points and 257 yards per game, including only 79 rushing ypg. How good was that ‘Bama D? It posted two shutouts, held seven opponents to 10 points or less and gave up more than 14 points just three times.
Now, Utah has some pretty strong statistics, too, putting up 37.4 ppg while allowing 17.2 in going 12-0. But the Utes didn’t exactly face an SEC-caliber schedule in the Mountain West, playing the likes of Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State, in addition to non-conference games against Utah State and Weber State. In fact, aside from a season-ending 48-24 rout of BYU (and BYU turned out to be a fraud), the Utes don’t have a really impressive win on their schedule. Yes, they beat Top 15 TCU 13-10, but they needed TCU to miss two chip-shot field goals and throw two big interceptions to stay in the game, and Utah didn’t find the end zone until going on an 80-yard, hair-is-on-fire drive, scoring with 47 seconds left to win it. TCU dominated that game from a statistical standpoint, finishing with a 444-275 edge in total yards and 193-45 in rushing. And did I mention that game was played in Utah?
And that’s not all. The Utes needed a miracle to beat Oregon State at home 31-28 (scoring 10 points in the final 90 seconds); they barely beat New Mexico 13-10 (New Mexico didn’t qualify for a bowl game); they were tied with UNLV at home at halftime; they were never able to put away Air Force (30-23); and, in their season-opener at Michigan, they struggled the entire game against what turned out to be a pathetic Wolverines squad, barely winning 25-23.
Taking all of that into account, it’s very easy to see why the oddsmakers have made Alabama such a big favorite today. One more thing to consider: Utah hasn’t been on the field since that Nov. 22 game against BYU, meaning their layoff is two weeks longer than Alabama’s, which last played in the SEC title game Dec. 6. That’s a bigger deal than you think.
Bottom line: Utah’s offense went up against a strong defense just once this year, and that was TCU. And to repeat, the Utes (despite playing at home) had just 195 total yards and six points before the game-winning drive. Now they have to face a much faster, much bigger, much better defense in a game played near Alabama’s back yard. At the same time, the Utes’ defense will be tested like it hasn’t all season against a Tide rushing attack led by gifted junior RB Glen Coffee (1,342 rushing yards, 6.1 yards per carry), who runs behind an offensive line that averages 6-foot-5, 308 pounds (and allowed just 17 sacks all year).
If the Crimson Tide, who won nine of their 11 games by double digits, shows up to play, they’ll impose their will against an opponent that just doesn’t have the same caliber of athletes. Lay the points.
Ole Miss
To put it simply, I love how Ole Miss closed down the stretch in its first season under coach Houston Nutt, and I did not like how Texas Tech finished. And in bowl games, end-of-season momentum is as big a factor as anything.
The Rebels won their final five games, covering the spread in the last four, which they won by the combined score of 147-20! And that includes a 31-13 rout of LSU as a three-point road favorite (and we saw just how good LSU is in that 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech two nights ago). Meanwhile, Texas Tech started out 10-0, climbed to No. 2 in the nation, then fell flat on its face in its biggest challenge of the year, that 65-21 loss at Oklahoma as a seven-point road underdog. And the Red Raiders followed that with a lethargic 35-28 home win over Baylor as a 22-point underdog (they actually trailed 28-14 in the third quarter).
That no-show against Oklahoma and that uninspired effort against Baylor told me all I need to know about Texas Tech’s mindset. In essence, the Red Raiders’ season ended right about halftime of the Oklahoma game, and I don’t think they’re suddenly going to flip the switch for this Cotton Bowl contest against Ole Miss. On the other hand, the Rebels are a young team building for the future, and a six-game season-ending winning streak (including another win over a Top 10 opponent) would send the players into the offseason with a ton of confidence.
Remember: Not only did Ole Miss go 8-4 this season, it went to Florida on Sept. 27 and handed the mighty fourth-ranked Gators their only loss of the season (31-30 as a 23-point underdog. The Rebels also took second-ranked Alabama to the wire in Tuscaloosa (24-20 loss as a 12½-point underdog), lost at 20th-ranked Wake Forest 30-28 on a last-second field goal and have that win at 18th-ranked LSU. In fact, Ole Miss’s four losses this year came by margins of 2, 6, 7 and 4 points, and it went 4-1 ATS on the road and 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
Honestly, I see Ole Miss, with the much stronger defensive unit, winning this game outright. But we’ll play it safe and take the points.
UCLA
Not only is UCLA on a 7-0 SU and ATS run against Oregon State, but the Bruins have shown absolutely no mercy against the Beavers. The last six wins have been by point margins of 18, 32, 15, 47, 23 and 35 points, including victories of 71-56 and 85-62 in their last two trips to Corvallis. Now, I’m not suggesting that this year’s Bruins team is as deep and talented as the last three that went to the Final Four. But UCLA (10-2) is still ranked in the Top 10 for a reason.
Meanwhile, Oregon State remains one of the worst teams in the country. The Beavers went just 5-5 during non-conference play, but only one of those victories came against a quality opponent (Nebraska, which Oregon State beat 64-63 at home). The other four wins were against Fresno State, Seattle Pacific, Howard and Seattle, but Oregon State also lost to Howard on the road in its opener, as well as Yale and Montana State at home!
UCLA is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 road games and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Corvallis. Meanwhile, Oregon State has failed to cover in 20 of its last 28 at home and is just 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 Pac-10 games, not to mention 17-36-1 ATS in its last 54 games against teams with a winning record.
As has been the case in the last seven meetings between these schools, you’re going to see a major talent discrepancy on the court in this game. Bruins by 20 plus!
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15 Dime: ALABAMA (minus the points vs. Utah in the Sugar Bowl)
5 Dime: OLE MISS (plus the points vs. Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl)
5 Dime: UCLA (minus the points vs. Oregon State in College Hoops)
Alabama
There’s no doubt that the Crimson Tide’s players are extremely disappointed that they couldn’t finish off their perfect season against Florida and get to the BCS Championship game. And that disappointment would concern me greatly if Nick Saban had a roster chockfull of seniors, the kind who might come into this Sugar Bowl flat after seeing their only shot at a national championship go up in flames. But Saban’s team is extremely young, and that youth works to Alabama’s advantage in this game. For one thing, young players tend to show up for bowl games because the experience is unique to them. For another, those young players know they have two or three more cracks at winning a national championship (and with the talent Saban has in place and on the way in the form of top-notch recruits, I have little doubt that Alabama will win it all in the next few years).
So here’s the point to all this: If Alabama does show up and play with the kind of intensity they did through their first 13 games, then I have no doubt that they’ll crush Utah, which has had a fine season but could – and probably should – have three losses. More than that, though, the Utes haven’t seen the kind of size and speed they’ll encounter tonight against Alabama.
Think about it: In addition to destroying a solid Clemson team in the season opener, the Crimson Tide went through a grueling SEC schedule that included games against Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida, and they finished averaging more than 31 points and 367 yards per game (including nearly 200 rushing yards per game), while Alabama’s Top 5 defense surrendered just 13 points and 257 yards per game, including only 79 rushing ypg. How good was that ‘Bama D? It posted two shutouts, held seven opponents to 10 points or less and gave up more than 14 points just three times.
Now, Utah has some pretty strong statistics, too, putting up 37.4 ppg while allowing 17.2 in going 12-0. But the Utes didn’t exactly face an SEC-caliber schedule in the Mountain West, playing the likes of Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State, in addition to non-conference games against Utah State and Weber State. In fact, aside from a season-ending 48-24 rout of BYU (and BYU turned out to be a fraud), the Utes don’t have a really impressive win on their schedule. Yes, they beat Top 15 TCU 13-10, but they needed TCU to miss two chip-shot field goals and throw two big interceptions to stay in the game, and Utah didn’t find the end zone until going on an 80-yard, hair-is-on-fire drive, scoring with 47 seconds left to win it. TCU dominated that game from a statistical standpoint, finishing with a 444-275 edge in total yards and 193-45 in rushing. And did I mention that game was played in Utah?
And that’s not all. The Utes needed a miracle to beat Oregon State at home 31-28 (scoring 10 points in the final 90 seconds); they barely beat New Mexico 13-10 (New Mexico didn’t qualify for a bowl game); they were tied with UNLV at home at halftime; they were never able to put away Air Force (30-23); and, in their season-opener at Michigan, they struggled the entire game against what turned out to be a pathetic Wolverines squad, barely winning 25-23.
Taking all of that into account, it’s very easy to see why the oddsmakers have made Alabama such a big favorite today. One more thing to consider: Utah hasn’t been on the field since that Nov. 22 game against BYU, meaning their layoff is two weeks longer than Alabama’s, which last played in the SEC title game Dec. 6. That’s a bigger deal than you think.
Bottom line: Utah’s offense went up against a strong defense just once this year, and that was TCU. And to repeat, the Utes (despite playing at home) had just 195 total yards and six points before the game-winning drive. Now they have to face a much faster, much bigger, much better defense in a game played near Alabama’s back yard. At the same time, the Utes’ defense will be tested like it hasn’t all season against a Tide rushing attack led by gifted junior RB Glen Coffee (1,342 rushing yards, 6.1 yards per carry), who runs behind an offensive line that averages 6-foot-5, 308 pounds (and allowed just 17 sacks all year).
If the Crimson Tide, who won nine of their 11 games by double digits, shows up to play, they’ll impose their will against an opponent that just doesn’t have the same caliber of athletes. Lay the points.
Ole Miss
To put it simply, I love how Ole Miss closed down the stretch in its first season under coach Houston Nutt, and I did not like how Texas Tech finished. And in bowl games, end-of-season momentum is as big a factor as anything.
The Rebels won their final five games, covering the spread in the last four, which they won by the combined score of 147-20! And that includes a 31-13 rout of LSU as a three-point road favorite (and we saw just how good LSU is in that 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech two nights ago). Meanwhile, Texas Tech started out 10-0, climbed to No. 2 in the nation, then fell flat on its face in its biggest challenge of the year, that 65-21 loss at Oklahoma as a seven-point road underdog. And the Red Raiders followed that with a lethargic 35-28 home win over Baylor as a 22-point underdog (they actually trailed 28-14 in the third quarter).
That no-show against Oklahoma and that uninspired effort against Baylor told me all I need to know about Texas Tech’s mindset. In essence, the Red Raiders’ season ended right about halftime of the Oklahoma game, and I don’t think they’re suddenly going to flip the switch for this Cotton Bowl contest against Ole Miss. On the other hand, the Rebels are a young team building for the future, and a six-game season-ending winning streak (including another win over a Top 10 opponent) would send the players into the offseason with a ton of confidence.
Remember: Not only did Ole Miss go 8-4 this season, it went to Florida on Sept. 27 and handed the mighty fourth-ranked Gators their only loss of the season (31-30 as a 23-point underdog. The Rebels also took second-ranked Alabama to the wire in Tuscaloosa (24-20 loss as a 12½-point underdog), lost at 20th-ranked Wake Forest 30-28 on a last-second field goal and have that win at 18th-ranked LSU. In fact, Ole Miss’s four losses this year came by margins of 2, 6, 7 and 4 points, and it went 4-1 ATS on the road and 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
Honestly, I see Ole Miss, with the much stronger defensive unit, winning this game outright. But we’ll play it safe and take the points.
UCLA
Not only is UCLA on a 7-0 SU and ATS run against Oregon State, but the Bruins have shown absolutely no mercy against the Beavers. The last six wins have been by point margins of 18, 32, 15, 47, 23 and 35 points, including victories of 71-56 and 85-62 in their last two trips to Corvallis. Now, I’m not suggesting that this year’s Bruins team is as deep and talented as the last three that went to the Final Four. But UCLA (10-2) is still ranked in the Top 10 for a reason.
Meanwhile, Oregon State remains one of the worst teams in the country. The Beavers went just 5-5 during non-conference play, but only one of those victories came against a quality opponent (Nebraska, which Oregon State beat 64-63 at home). The other four wins were against Fresno State, Seattle Pacific, Howard and Seattle, but Oregon State also lost to Howard on the road in its opener, as well as Yale and Montana State at home!
UCLA is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 road games and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Corvallis. Meanwhile, Oregon State has failed to cover in 20 of its last 28 at home and is just 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 Pac-10 games, not to mention 17-36-1 ATS in its last 54 games against teams with a winning record.
As has been the case in the last seven meetings between these schools, you’re going to see a major talent discrepancy on the court in this game. Bruins by 20 plus!
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