THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, JANUARY 8
NBA
Boston (25-8, 15-18 ATS) at Atlanta (22-12, 23-11 ATS)
After a three-game losing streak to close out 2009, the Celtics will try to make it three straight wins when they travel to Philips Arena in Atlanta for an Eastern Conference showdown with the Hawks.
Boston scored a 112-106 overtime victory in Miami on Wednesday, cashing as a one-point favorite. The Celtics got at least 16 points from each of their five starters, with point guard Rajon Rondo returning from injury and leading the way with 25 points and eight assists, while center Kendrick Perkins added 20 points and 10 rebounds. Boston’s defense has taken a hit with star Kevin Garnett out of the lineup, as it has given up 102.6 points a game and 47 percent shooting over the last five games.
Atlanta snapped a season-long four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS) on Wednesday with a much-needed 119-89 home victory rout of lowly New Jersey, cashing as a 14-point favorite. The Hawks, who shot 57.3 percent from the floor, got 29 points from reserve Jamal Crawford with guard Joe Johnson chipping 20 points against the lowly Nets. They average 109.9 points a game in front of the home crowd, shooting 48.4 percent from the floor where they are 12-5 ATS this season.
The Hawks snapped a five-game losing streak to the Celtics on Nov. 13 when they marched into Boston and scored a 97-86 victory as nine-point underdogs. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 series clashes and Atlanta is 4-1 ATS the last five times the Celtics have come calling at Philips Arena.
Boston is on ATS slides of 1-4 after a spread cover and 1-4 after a day off, but the Celtics are on ATS hot streaks of 38-16-1 as an underdog, 4-1 against the Southeast Division and 5-0-1 as ‘dogs of up to 4 ½ points. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in its last four after a spread-cover, but otherwise on positive ATS runs of 23-11-1 overall, 29-14-1 as a favorite, 5-2 at home and 8-2 against Atlantic Division squads.
The Celtics have topped the total in eight of 12 Friday games, but they are on “under” streaks of 11-5 after a spread-cover, 9-3 against Southeast Division teams and 3-1-1 after a straight-up win. Atlanta is on a plethora of “over” runs, including 12-3 at home, 14-5 after a spread-cover, 5-2 overall and 7-3 after getting a day off. Finally, in this series, the “over” is 7-3 in the last 10 clashes and 4-1 in the last five played in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dallas (24-11, 17-18 ATS) at San Antonio (21-12, 18-14-1 ATS)
The red-hot Spurs welcome in-state rival Dallas to the AT&T Center in San Antonio for a matchup between the top two teams in the Southwest Division.
The Mavericks have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games (2-3 ATS), scoring a 98-93 home victory over Detroit on Tuesday, coming up short as 8 ½-point favorites. Dallas is 12-6 ATS on the highway this season and the Mavs just split a four-game road trip (SU and ATS) to close out 2009 and open 2010.
San Antonio has won six of its last seven overall (SU and ATS), including three straight at home (3-0 ATS) capped by Wednesday’s 112-92 win over Detroit, easily cashing as a 10-point chalk. The Spurs are 12-7 ATS at home and they average 105 points a game and shoot 49.6 percent from the floor in front of the home crowd.
Dallas knocked the Spurs out of the Western Conference playoffs last season (4-1 SU and ATS) but the two have split the first two meetings of this season. San Antonio scored a 92-83 home win back on Nov. 11 as a 1 ½-point home ‘dog with Dallas getting a 99-94 home win seven days later as a three-point chalk. Dallas is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to San Antonio even though the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six series clashes.
The Mavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five against Southwest Division rivals and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, but they are on ATS spurts of 10-4 on the road and 43-21-1 when they get two days off. The Spurs are on positive ATS streaks of 4-1 at home, 6-1 overall and 4-1 after getting a day off, but they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six against winning teams.
Dallas has stayed below the posted total in eight of 11 against Western Conference teams and four of five on the road, but it is on “over” streaks of 6-1 as a ‘dog and 4-1 on Fridays. San Antonio is on “over” runs of 19-9 as a home favorite, 7-3 after getting a day off and 6-2 against Western Conference teams, and on “under” streaks of 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 at home against teams with winning road records.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Cleveland (28-9, 19-18 ATS) at Denver (22-13, 16-19 ATS)
The streaking Cavaliers open a five-game West Coast road trip with a stop at the Pepsi Center in Denver taking on a Nuggets squad that has dropped six of nine overall.
Cleveland has won eight of its last nine (6-3 ATS), including Wednesday’s easy 121-98 home victory over the Wizards as a 13½-point favorite. LeBron James led the surge with 23 points, eight assists and seven rebounds while Shaquille O’Neal added 17 points and six boards. The Cavaliers are 13-7 ATS away from home and lately they have cranked up the defense, allowing just 92 points a game over the last five.
Denver edged Golden State 123-122 on Wednesday, but came up short as a 5 ½-point favorite, falling to 2-7 ATS in its last nine. The low point during this streak came on Sunday when the Nuggets lost 108-105 at home to the lowly Sixers as four-point favorites. Denver has been lousy on the defensive end in its last five contests, giving up 107 ppg and allowing the opposition to shoot 50.5 percent from the floor.
The Cavaliers swept the season series from Denver a year ago (2-0 ATS), including a 105-88 route at the Pepsi Center, prevailing as two-point underdogs. This series has been swept in each of the last three seasons, with the Nuggets getting the SU and ATS sweeps in 2008 and 2007.
Cleveland is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 4-1 on the road, 4-0 against Western Conference teams, 18-8 on Fridays and 11-4 against Northwest Division squads. Denver is on several ATS slides, including 1-5 overall, 2-5 at home, 2-8 against Central Division teams and 3-7 after a non-cover.
For the Cavs, the “under” is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1-1 on Fridays, 5-1 after a straight-up win and 40-17 after a spread-cover. The Nuggets have topped the total in four of five at home, four straight against Eastern Conference teams and 18 of 26 against Central Division teams, but they have stayed “under” in 13 of 19 after getting two days off. In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in five of the last eight matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(24) Washington (10-3, 2-9 ATS) at Arizona State (10-5, 3-8 ATS)
Following consecutive conference losses in Southern California last weekend, the Sun Devils return home looking to knock off 24th-ranked Washington in a Pac-10 contest.
The Huskies opened the conference season on New Year’s Eve with a 76-70 home victory over Oregon State – failing to cover as a 13-point favorite – but followed that with Saturday’s 90-79 upset loss to Oregon as an 11½-point home chalk. Washington, which has cashed just once in its last nine lined contests, has one of the top offenses in the nation (82.5 points per game), but it has yielded 70 points or more in six of its last eight games and eight of its 13 contests this year.
Arizona State tipped off Pac-10 play with losses at UCLA on Dec. 31 (72-70 as a 1 ½-point road favorite) and at USC on Saturday (47-37 as a 2½-point road underdog). In the USC defeat, the Sun Devils made just 11 field goals in 45 tries (24.4 percent), and despite giving up a season-low 47 points, they lost by double digits as they were held to their lowest point total since a 60-37 loss to Minnesota in November 1991.
These teams squared off three times last year, with Washington sweeping the regular-season series (84-71 as a five-point road underdog; 73-70 in overtime as a 3½-point home favorite) and Arizona State getting revenge in the conference tournament, rolling 75-65 as a one-point chalk. The Huskies are still 13-2 SU in the last 15 meetings (9-6 ATS), and they’ve cashed in each of their last six trips to Tempe. In fact, the visitor has covered in 11 of the last 12 series clashes.
Washington is in pointspread ruts of 1-8 overall, 1-8 against winning teams, 1-5-1 in Pac-10 play and 0-4 on Friday, but the Huskies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after a SU defeat. Arizona State is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall, but otherwise the Sun Devils are on pointspread surges of 5-0 on Friday and 15-5 after a non-cover.
The high-scoring Huskies are on “over” stretches of 23-6 overall, 7-2 on the highway, 23-4 in Pac-10 play, 7-1 on Friday, 4-0 versus winning teams and 10-4 after a non-cover. The over is also 5-2 in ASU’s last seven conference games and 4-0 in its last four against winning teams, but the Sun Devils are 8-2 “under” in their last 10 overall, and their last seven home games have stayed low.
Finally, the last four meetings in this series have cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and OVER
