Sorry, forgot to post this write-up earlier.
Chris Jordan
100♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS (LIST Garza and Halladay) - I’ve told this story a dozen times by now, but I watched these same two teams, same two pitchers in this same venue about 20 rows up behind home plate. And, I’ll be up front with you, I tabbed Roy Halladay as the pitcher of choice in that game. It was that exact contest on July 29, 2008 I established a newfound respect for Matt Garza. I’ve watched many pitchers, sitting behind home plate, and have rarely been that impressed as I was that night, when the Rays won 3-0 based on Garza’s crisp pitching, utilizing his junk at time you’d least expect it.
One year later, albeit his record is not indicative of what I’m about to say, he’s that much better of a pitcher. The maturation process has been incredible with this kid, and understand, when you reach the level of success that Garza has, hitters tend to learn about you and gun for you much more. But in terms of the Blue Jays, the Tampa right-hander owns them – end of story.
In fact, his last win came in Toronto, on June 30, when he allowed one run in seven innings of a 4-1 victory. It’s been his only start against the Blue Jays this season after dominating all five of his starts against them last season, allowing a meager two runs in 38 innings.
The Rays have won five of six against the Blue Jays this year, and though Toronto has its ace on the hill tonight, I’m not too concerned about Halladay, whose only two losses in his last 14 starts have come against Tampa Bay. Let’s take the value money tonight, and play a hungry Rays team that’ll be looking to get on base often after being perfectly no-hit in Chi-town yesterday.
100♦ TEXAS RANGERS (LIST Feldman and Greinke) - The Rangers have won four straight and are pure value at this big a price with that type of offense against the slumping Royals. I know all about the flu-bug the Rangers have been dealing with, but the fact is, this team has dug deep to overcome the adversity and is still winning ballgames. Thus, after a day off to rest, I expect a refreshed Rangers team to show up at Kauffman Stadium with a lot more life in their bats.
One thing that’s helped the Rangers, who are still chasing the Angels for the American League West lead, has been tremendous pitching during this winning streak. Texas starters are 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA while the relievers have pitched 17-1/3 innings and have posted a 1.04 ERA.
So as long as I get a quality performance from Scott Feldman against a Royals team that has lost a season-high nine straight, I think I’ll be just fine tonight, even against Zach Greinke and his 10-5 mark and 2.08 ERA. The Rangers are hungry for a shot at Greinke, who pitched a seven-hitter at Texas on May 18, striking out 10 in a 2-0 victory, and are catching him at the right time.
Kansas City’s surprise right-hander is 0-2 in his last three starts, while the Royals have lost seven of Greinke’s last nine starts. Albeit, they haven’t helped him out offensively, providing 2.6 runs of support per game during that stretch. That’s where I’m counting on Feldman, who is 2-1 in his last three starts with a 2.89 ERA. The Rangers have won 11 of his 16 starts this year, while he’s sporting an 8-3 mark on the season. I can see why Greinke might be a favorite, but not this big, and not against this lineup. Take the dog price.
100♦ L.A. DODGERS RUN LINE (LIST Kershaw) - Five straight wins and I’m going right back to the well with a team I’ve been making money with the past couple weeks, picking my spots and laying the run line wisely. Some might say this one is sketchy, with the Marlins playing some impressive baseball lately, but the National League-leading Dodgers head into the weekend 27 games over .500 for thefirst time since the last day of the 1988 season, when they last won the World Series. And as long as this offense is hitting the ball – it has scored 34 runs during this winning streak – there’s no reason to back off now when the oddsmakers are being so generous against the run line.
Quite frankly, I don’t need that many runs either, in my opinion, since southpaw Clayton Kershaw has been so dominant lately. Utilizing that explosive arm speed from over the top, he’s been able to keep batters off his stuff and is 5-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last seven starts, all of which the Dodgers have won.
I love watching this kid work too, as he isn’t afraid to get on hitters quickly with a low- to mid-90s fastball that jumps late, and will then mix in a tantalizing curve that tails off a tight rotation. He also throws a baffling curveball, and against an aggressive lineup like this one, Kershaw is tailor-made for this series-opener.
He’s already had success against the Marlins, as he gave up one run, one hit and struck out nine in seven innings of a 12-5 win in his only career appearance against them on May 17. Looks for another dominating performance by the Dodgers all around tonight.
