Dr. Bob opinion
Friday NBA Opinion
Minnesota (+15) over L.A. LAKERS
Rotation #819 – 7:35 pm Pacific
The Lakers are the type of great team that saves their best efforts for their more difficult games and they tend to let up when they have a big lead against bad teams. Los Angeles is just 7-17 ATS this season as a favorite of 11 points or more and the Lakers have won by 15 points or more in just 8 of their 32 home games. Minnesota has been horrible overall without Al Jefferson, but they have continued their habit of not getting blown out on the road. The Timberwolves have lost by more than 15 points on the road just twice all season in 29 road games and they are 13-2 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or more and a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road dog of more than 9 points this season. Minnesota is only 1-9 straight up and 2-8 ATS without Jefferson, but they are 2-0 ATS when getting more than 9 points (a straight up win at Miami and a 3 point home loss as a 9 ½ point dog to the Lakers). Aside from the team trends Minnesota also applies to a 112-46-4 ATS big road underdog situation that plays on slumping teams. The opening line of Lakers by 16 points is fair without factoring in the team trends, but a line of Lakers by 15 points is reasonable given the Lakers’ tendency to letdown late in games with big leads and the T’Wolves’ habit of not getting blown out on the road. The general situation still leaves us with value favoring the Timberwolves and I’ll lean with Minnesota at +15 points in this game and I’d take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.