actually, JBL, its pretty simple...i've mentioned it before but if you see an overwhelming fav (as in 80% or higher) getting that much $$$$ and the line goes down on them (say the fav getting 80% or higher of the $$$ openend at -3 and is now at -2) then 9 out of 10 times its a safe bet to go the other way...usually the books are tempting more money and the sharps (usually a deadly combo) have come in and laid a hefty amount to bring that total down.....its called a buy-order which leads to some serious steam.....now lets say that fav getting all that public love opens at 3 and goes up to 4 or 5, the books know they're gonna get hammered and want action on the dog to try and put some mascara on the beating the are gonna be getting...hope that helps a lil...
actually, JBL, its pretty simple...i've mentioned it before but if you see an overwhelming fav (as in 80% or higher) getting that much $$$$ and the line goes down on them (say the fav getting 80% or higher of the $$$ openend at -3 and is now at -2) then 9 out of 10 times its a safe bet to go the other way...usually the books are tempting more money and the sharps (usually a deadly combo) have come in and laid a hefty amount to bring that total down.....its called a buy-order which leads to some serious steam.....now lets say that fav getting all that public love opens at 3 and goes up to 4 or 5, the books know they're gonna get hammered and want action on the dog to try and put some mascara on the beating the are gonna be getting...hope that helps a lil...
Yankee Capper Late Play
NBA GUARANTEED BLOWOUT
Friday, February 20th * 10:30pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
Guaranteed Blowout Plays are just that, guaranteed! This is a game
in which one team is so far superior to the other that they just can't
put a high enough number on it. I have one TODAY! Get it now!
LA LAKERS -8.5
Rest of card from his web site (for tracking purposes):
<table width="100%" border="1"><tbody><tr><tr><td>BRACKET BUSTER = BOOKIE BUSTER
Friday, February 20th * 7:00pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
Go for the TKO on your man with this play tonight! Tonight's
BRACKET BUSTER is sure to bust you into the win column
and kick off a profitable weekend!
NIAGARA -3.5</td></tr><tr><td>NCAA HOOPS TOTAL DOMINATION
Friday, February 20th * 7:00pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
TOTAL DOMINATION PLAYS mean we found a total in a game
that is set either way to high or way to low and a TOTAL DOMINATION
play guarantees to go either over or under the posted total.
CORNELL/YALE OVER 131</td></tr><tr><td>NBA TOTAL DOMINATION
Friday, February 20th * 8:00pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
TOTAL DOMINATION PLAYS mean we found a total in a game
that is set either way to high or way to low and a TOTAL DOMINATION
play guarantees to go either over or under the posted total.
DALLAS/HOUSTON UNDER 197
</td></tr></tr></tbody></table>
NBA GUARANTEED BLOWOUT
Friday, February 20th * 10:30pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
Guaranteed Blowout Plays are just that, guaranteed! This is a game
in which one team is so far superior to the other that they just can't
put a high enough number on it. I have one TODAY! Get it now!
LA LAKERS -8.5
Rest of card from his web site (for tracking purposes):
<table width="100%" border="1"><tbody><tr><tr><td>BRACKET BUSTER = BOOKIE BUSTER
Friday, February 20th * 7:00pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
Go for the TKO on your man with this play tonight! Tonight's
BRACKET BUSTER is sure to bust you into the win column
and kick off a profitable weekend!
NIAGARA -3.5</td></tr><tr><td>NCAA HOOPS TOTAL DOMINATION
Friday, February 20th * 7:00pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
TOTAL DOMINATION PLAYS mean we found a total in a game
that is set either way to high or way to low and a TOTAL DOMINATION
play guarantees to go either over or under the posted total.
CORNELL/YALE OVER 131</td></tr><tr><td>NBA TOTAL DOMINATION
Friday, February 20th * 8:00pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
TOTAL DOMINATION PLAYS mean we found a total in a game
that is set either way to high or way to low and a TOTAL DOMINATION
play guarantees to go either over or under the posted total.
DALLAS/HOUSTON UNDER 197
</td></tr></tr></tbody></table>
go back and look at the numbers my friend, teams that get bet by 80% + are basically 50/50. best winning % in these games are home faves. factoring the line changes has yielded a short term trend that has started to come back within the norm the past few days. you say 9 of 10. i say maybe 5.5 of 10 at best.
WHere the hell you been Soonerdawg? Spring football hasn't started yet so I know you're not there. What's going on?
Btw, I'm freezing some bananas tonight for a smoothie for my daughter in the morning...I thought of you.....@)
Hey, How about a fucking winner in the late NBA games for a struggling Longhorn??!!!!
WHere the hell you been Soonerdawg? Spring football hasn't started yet so I know you're not there. What's going on?
Btw, I'm freezing some bananas tonight for a smoothie for my daughter in the morning...I thought of you.....@)
Hey, How about a fucking winner in the late NBA games for a struggling Longhorn??!!!!
lol. got obligations that keep me away during the evening through the week. got the new blackberry the other day but am in a bad net area. the touchscreen's a bitch getting used to. only game i'm on tonight was cornell. gl.
over 146 BC/Miami, Fl
over 156.5 ND/Providence
NC St -7 vs Virginia
Louisville -5 vs Cinncinati
A&M -2 vs Texas Tech
Washington +1 vs USC
Over 138 BYU/UNLV
Northern Iowa -6 vs Siena
Youngstown St -6 vs St Peters
Winthrop Pk vs App State
Indiana St -10 vs Toledo
Louisania Tech +11 vs Murray St
playing trends just as good as any other strategy. wasn't trying to knock yours, just a reflex from seeing 9 out of 10 winners. got my own system that's very similar to what you mentioned but it gives me more outs with only about a 58-60% success rate so far. basically an attempt to measure when one trend goes to shit, where's the one that's coming as a result? best of luck, most likely we will be looking at some of the same games tomorrow.
its good to talk with someone who uses the analytical approach like i do.....an example has unfolded tonite already...Cornell for example was getting nearly 80% of $$$ (78% according to sportsbookspy.com) and line opened at 6 and went to 4.5 at tip off (5 at some places)..result? they lose outright.....another scenario that could also unfold like that is Denver getting 78% of money and line opened at 2.5 and was bet to 1.5 at tip-off...on top of that the whole world was on them......
an example where they fit into yours and not mine. my book showed 76% just before tip which would have left it a no-play for me but i followed kelso because i had no plays in my bag. RF's in my system either = a play or no play. no good fade spot has emerged. i am still shocked at how little the public backs home dawgs at 60% +.
