Jeff Benton
Illinois-Chicago +13 at BUTLER
Obviously, on paper, Butler would appear to be the easy call here. For starters, the 15th-ranked Bulldogs are 21-2, including 11-0 at home and 12-1 in Horizon League play, while Illinois-Chicago is 11-13 overall, including 5-7 on the road and 4-10 in conference, and the Flames have lost five of their last six SU and are 3-10 ATS in their last 13, including 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road. Furthermore, Butler is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 16-point home win last year and a 26-point home victory in 2007, and the favorite has cashed in 14 of the last 18 meetings.
However, take a look at what these teams have done recently. Yes, Illinois-Chicago is in a 1-5 funk, but the victory came Tuesday, a 64-53 rout of Detroit as a 9½-point home favorite. Prior to that the Flames were competitive in losses to Youngstown State (68-60), Cleveland State (66-63) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee (63-62). Meanwhile, the Bulldogs looked very impressive in Saturday’s 69-51 rout of Wright State as a two-point road favorite, but before that they struggled to put away both Detroit (66-61) and Valparaiso (59-51), and lost outright at Wisconsin-Green Bay (75-66). During that three-game stretch, Butler went 0-3 ATS.
Also, these teams played a very competitive game nearly a month ago at Illinois-Chicago, with Butler rallying from a 28-17 halftime deficit to win 59-52 despite getting outrebounded (34-27) and shooting just 18-for-54 (33.3 percent) from the field. In fact, Butler made just seven two-point shots in the whole game. And although the Bulldogs covered that night, they were only favored by three points. Tonight, they’re a healthy double-digit chalk.
Speaking of which, Butler hasn’t exactly thrived in the role of big favorite this year, going just 2-5 ATS when laying double digits. Conversely, the Flames have been an underdog of more than 10 points just once all season. The result? A 74-55 rout of Vanderbilt as a 10½-point road pup on Dec. 3.
Do I see another outright upset here? Probably not, but it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world. Regardless, we’ve got a ton of wiggle room with the points we’re getting, and with Butler winning just two of its last seven games by double digits, this line is seriously inflated. Grab the value with the road underdog.
2♦ ILLINOIS-CHICAGO