DR BOB
2 Star Selection
05:05 PM Pacific Time
**NEW ORLEANS (+3 points or more) 100 Dallas 96
The linesmakers are overreacting to the injuries to Baron Davis and
David Wesley and to the consecutive blowout home losses that the
Hornets have suffered in their last two games. Davis is certainly an
important player and I value his worth at 2.1 points, but Wesley?s
value is just 0.2 points and the recent addition of All-Star small
forward Jamal Mashburn is worth a positive 2.1 points (the small
forward position for the Hornets was 1.3 points below average without
Mashburn and it?s 0.8 points better than average with him). So, the
absence of Davis and the addition of Mashburn are a wash and the last
two horrible performances are more of a coincidence than a product of
Davis being out. That last 21 point loss to the Nets on Monday sets
the Hornets up in a solid 120-69-2 ATS home blowout bounce-back
situation tonight and that angle is 44-18 ATS if the visiting team
played the previous night. The Mavericks have played better on the
road recently, but they are still just 8-33-1 ATS as a road favorite
or pick (2-13-1 ATS this season) and a fair line on this game is
Dallas by 1 point based on the available players for each team. I?ll
take 3 points or more with the Hornets in a 2-Star Best Bet.
Possible Best Bet
06:05 PM Pacific Time
**UTAH (-8 points or less) 98 Chicago 83
The line on this game is pretty far off, as the Jazz continue to not
get the respect they deserve. With star forward Kirilenko in the
lineup the Jazz are a point better than an average team and Chicago
is just over 6 points worse than an average team with their current
lineup. So, the Jazz are 7 points better than the Bulls and I know
that Utah?s home court edge is much more than a point or two. Utah is
17-7 ATS at home with Kirilenko in the lineup and the Bulls have
tanked on the road lately, going 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Even if I give Utah the normal home court edge (when the road team is
rested that is 3.4 points) my ratings would still favor them by 10 ½
points in this game and they would have a solid 57% chance of
covering a 9 point spread and a 60% chance at -8 points, which is the
number at which I?ll make them a Best Bet. I?ll take Utah at -8
points or less for a 2-Star Best Bet and consider them a Strong
Opinion if they remain favored by more than 8 points.
3 Star Selection
04:00 PM Pacific Time
***Western Michigan 85 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 61
Central Michigan lost a ton of talent from last year?s 25-7 squad,
including NBA draft pick Chris Kaman (6th overall pick), but the rest
of MAC is showing no sympathy for last year?s league champs. Teams
often letdown against really bad teams, but that is not the case for
the Chippewas? opponents this season, most of which are seeking
revenge for defeats suffered last season. Central Michigan is 3-16
straight up and 4-14 ATS (0-5 ATS at home) and they should be a 19
point home dog to a Western Michigan squad that is the class of the
MAC this season. Western Michigan is also a bully, as the Broncos are
14-5 ATS as a favorite of 12 points or more in 8 seasons under coach
Steve Hawkins, including 4-1 ATS this season and 2-0 ATS as a road
favorite of 12 points or more. Aside from the line value, Central
Michigan also applies in a negative 18-45-1 ATS home underdog
situation. I?ll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet as they
atone for two upset losses to the Chippewas last season.
2 Star Selection
04:00 PM Pacific Time
**George Mason (-9 points or less) 78 TOWSON STATE 62
Towson State is starting to slip a bit, losing their last 3 games by
21, 25, and 26 points, and George Mason applies to a very strong 100-
31-2 ATS road favorite situation and a 58-10-1 ATS subset of that
angle. My ratings still only favor George Mason by 7 ½ points, but
the situation is so strong that I will give up some line value to
make the Patriots a play. With the situation included with the
ratings I find that George Mason has a solid 59% chance over covering
at -9 points and that?s the number at which I?ll make them a Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
04:00 PM Pacific Time
**BUFFALO (-7 points or less) 83 Eastern Michigan 69
Buffalo coach Reggie Witherspoon hasn?t had a lot of prosperity in
his 5 seasons with the Bulls, but he?s been able to seize the moment
when his team?s are playing well. Buffalo is 6-0 ATS under
Witherspoon following consecutive victories and 6-2 ATS when favored
by 3 points or more (which obviously doesn?t happen often). Buffalo
is rarely better than the team they are facing, but that is the case
today and Eastern Michigan has a history of pointspread failure
against better teams, going just 18-35-3 ATS in coach Boone?s 4
seasons as an underdog of 5 points or more (1-5-1 ATS this season).
Losing teams that go on a little run of success generally continue to
thrive when facing lesser teams and Buffalo applies in a solid 60-25-
5 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on their recent
run. My ratings favor Buffalo by 8 ½ points in this game (which is
where the line opened), so we have line value to go along with the
good situation and I?ll lay 7 points or less with the Bulls in a 2-
Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
04:30 PM Pacific Time
**VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (-7 points or less) 78 Drexel 64
VCU won at Drexel 70-69 a few weeks ago despite making just 2 of 8
free throws and they have an excellent chance for the series sweep
tonight. In fact, the Rams qualify in a solid 82-38-4 ATS home sweep
angle as long as they are not favored by 8 points or more. Virginia
Commonwealth and Drexel are both playing well, as the Rams have won
and covered in 5 straight games and 7 out of 8, while the Dragons
have won 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 games (although just 3-3-1
ATS in those 7 games). Drexel is a much better investment when they
are supposed to win straight up, as the Dragons are 21-10-2 ATS as a
favorite under coach Bruiser Flint, but a modest 16-17-1 ATS as an
underdog. Drexel also hasn?t handled prosperity very well under Flint
and they are just 2-8-1 ATS following 3 or more consecutive
victories, including 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 2 points or more. VCU,
meanwhile, is 21-9 ATS in conference home games in recent years,
including 14-3 ATS when not laying 8 points or more. My ratings favor
VCU by 6 ½ points in this game (but it would be 11 points using
conference games only for each team) and I?ll lay 7 points or less
with the Rams in a 2-Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
05:00 PM Pacific Time
**TEXAS (-13 points or less) 85 Colorado 65
Texas has been a good investment since Rick Barnes took over 6
seasons ago (81-56-3 ATS in all regular season game) and Barnes
rarely is beaten by mediocre and bad teams. Barnes? teams also get
better as the season goes on and the Longhorns have been very
profitable in conference play against mediocre and bad teams, going
33-8-1 ATS in the regular season when not laying more than 13 points
against conference opponents with a win percentage of .750 or less.
Colorado has played pretty well away from home this season, but the
Buffaloes are just 8-25-2 ATS in 9 seasons under coach Patton when
not getting more than 12 points away from home against conference
foes with a winning record. My ratings favor Texas by 13 ½ points and
I?ll lay 13 points or less with the Longhorns in a 2-Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
06:00 PM Pacific Time
**Maryland (-4 points or less) 82 VIRGINIA 71
Maryland has lost 4 of their last 5 games, but the Terrapins are due
to bounce-back tonight against a Virginia team that they match-up
very well against. Maryland is in a similar situation as they were in
when they won 65-52 at Clemson as a 6 point favorite a couple of
weeks ago, when they were also coming off consecutive losing efforts.
What turned motivation into an easy win in that game was Clemson?s
inability to take advantage of Maryland?s soft perimeter defense and
Virginia will likely have similar issues. Maryland has perhaps the
nation?s best interior defense, allowing just 38.4% on opponent?s 2-
point shots (the national average is 48% on 2-pointers), but they
sacrifice open 3-point shots and they?ve allowed opposing teams to
knock down 36.6% of shots beyond the arc this season. The Terrapins
tend to have success when facing teams that aren?t very good shooting
from long range and Virginia is the ACC?s worst 3-point shooting team
at 32.0% (Clemson shoots 32.3%). Aside from the good match-up, the
Terps qualify in a solid 150-80-8 ATS road bounce-back situation and
a very good 93-43-3 ATS double-revenge situation (Virginia managed to
upset the Terps twice last year). Maryland?s recent slump has
provided good line value for this game, as my ratings favor the
Terrapins by 4 ½ points in this game. I?ll lay 4 points or less with
Maryland in a 2-Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
04:30 PM Pacific Time
**Manhattan (-19 points or less) 78 LOYOLA MARYLAND 52
Loyola Maryland finally won a game when they beat Marist here last
week, but the Greyhounds have been whipped on a regular basis by
decent teams and they qualify in a negative 18-44-1 ATS big home
underdog situation. Manhattan is the class of the Metro Atlantic
Conference once again and they have already won a couple of league
road games by 18 points or more this season. Loyola, meanwhile, is
just 10-17 ATS at home the last few years, including 2-6 ATS this
season, and they lost by 20 points or more here against the only two
decent teams that they hosted, Princeton and Niagara, ? neither of
whom are as good as Manhattan. My ratings favor the Jaspers by 21 ½
points in this game and the fact that they were upset in their most
recent road game (at Iona) will assure that they don?t take this game
for granted. Manhattan beat Loyola by 33 points at home despite the
fact that the Greyhounds shot 47% from 3-point range in that game. I
doubt that Loyola will shoot as well in this game or that they?ll
come within 20 points of Manhattan. I?ll lay 19 points or less with
the Jaspers and I?ll make them a 3-Star at -17 points or less.
Upgrade Manhattan to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 17
points or less.
Opinion
LA Clippers (+6) 97 BOSTON 98
I realize that the Clippers best player Corey Maggette is out for this game with a
sprained ankle, but the line on this game is still too high. The Clippers have been about
an average team since Elton Brand?s been in the lineup (he missed 13 games) and the
Celtics have been about 3 points worse than an average team since their trade with
Cleveland, which brought defensive liability and ball hog Ricky Davis to the team. A fair
line on this game would be a pick with Maggette playing and I?d make the line Boston by 3
points with Maggette out (he?s worth 2.9 points). Boston is also just 9-17 ATS at home
this season, including 4-16 ATS when hosting a team with a win percentage of .375 or
better (0-9 ATS in those games recently). The Clippers have a solid 57% chance of
covering at +6 points tonight and that makes them worth of a Strong Opinion.
TEXAS SPORTS WIRE
5*TEXAS
3*MEMPHIS--W MICH
NBA
3*RAPTORS UNDER--ROCKETS UNDER
2 Star Selection
05:05 PM Pacific Time
**NEW ORLEANS (+3 points or more) 100 Dallas 96
The linesmakers are overreacting to the injuries to Baron Davis and
David Wesley and to the consecutive blowout home losses that the
Hornets have suffered in their last two games. Davis is certainly an
important player and I value his worth at 2.1 points, but Wesley?s
value is just 0.2 points and the recent addition of All-Star small
forward Jamal Mashburn is worth a positive 2.1 points (the small
forward position for the Hornets was 1.3 points below average without
Mashburn and it?s 0.8 points better than average with him). So, the
absence of Davis and the addition of Mashburn are a wash and the last
two horrible performances are more of a coincidence than a product of
Davis being out. That last 21 point loss to the Nets on Monday sets
the Hornets up in a solid 120-69-2 ATS home blowout bounce-back
situation tonight and that angle is 44-18 ATS if the visiting team
played the previous night. The Mavericks have played better on the
road recently, but they are still just 8-33-1 ATS as a road favorite
or pick (2-13-1 ATS this season) and a fair line on this game is
Dallas by 1 point based on the available players for each team. I?ll
take 3 points or more with the Hornets in a 2-Star Best Bet.
Possible Best Bet
06:05 PM Pacific Time
**UTAH (-8 points or less) 98 Chicago 83
The line on this game is pretty far off, as the Jazz continue to not
get the respect they deserve. With star forward Kirilenko in the
lineup the Jazz are a point better than an average team and Chicago
is just over 6 points worse than an average team with their current
lineup. So, the Jazz are 7 points better than the Bulls and I know
that Utah?s home court edge is much more than a point or two. Utah is
17-7 ATS at home with Kirilenko in the lineup and the Bulls have
tanked on the road lately, going 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Even if I give Utah the normal home court edge (when the road team is
rested that is 3.4 points) my ratings would still favor them by 10 ½
points in this game and they would have a solid 57% chance of
covering a 9 point spread and a 60% chance at -8 points, which is the
number at which I?ll make them a Best Bet. I?ll take Utah at -8
points or less for a 2-Star Best Bet and consider them a Strong
Opinion if they remain favored by more than 8 points.
3 Star Selection
04:00 PM Pacific Time
***Western Michigan 85 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 61
Central Michigan lost a ton of talent from last year?s 25-7 squad,
including NBA draft pick Chris Kaman (6th overall pick), but the rest
of MAC is showing no sympathy for last year?s league champs. Teams
often letdown against really bad teams, but that is not the case for
the Chippewas? opponents this season, most of which are seeking
revenge for defeats suffered last season. Central Michigan is 3-16
straight up and 4-14 ATS (0-5 ATS at home) and they should be a 19
point home dog to a Western Michigan squad that is the class of the
MAC this season. Western Michigan is also a bully, as the Broncos are
14-5 ATS as a favorite of 12 points or more in 8 seasons under coach
Steve Hawkins, including 4-1 ATS this season and 2-0 ATS as a road
favorite of 12 points or more. Aside from the line value, Central
Michigan also applies in a negative 18-45-1 ATS home underdog
situation. I?ll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet as they
atone for two upset losses to the Chippewas last season.
2 Star Selection
04:00 PM Pacific Time
**George Mason (-9 points or less) 78 TOWSON STATE 62
Towson State is starting to slip a bit, losing their last 3 games by
21, 25, and 26 points, and George Mason applies to a very strong 100-
31-2 ATS road favorite situation and a 58-10-1 ATS subset of that
angle. My ratings still only favor George Mason by 7 ½ points, but
the situation is so strong that I will give up some line value to
make the Patriots a play. With the situation included with the
ratings I find that George Mason has a solid 59% chance over covering
at -9 points and that?s the number at which I?ll make them a Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
04:00 PM Pacific Time
**BUFFALO (-7 points or less) 83 Eastern Michigan 69
Buffalo coach Reggie Witherspoon hasn?t had a lot of prosperity in
his 5 seasons with the Bulls, but he?s been able to seize the moment
when his team?s are playing well. Buffalo is 6-0 ATS under
Witherspoon following consecutive victories and 6-2 ATS when favored
by 3 points or more (which obviously doesn?t happen often). Buffalo
is rarely better than the team they are facing, but that is the case
today and Eastern Michigan has a history of pointspread failure
against better teams, going just 18-35-3 ATS in coach Boone?s 4
seasons as an underdog of 5 points or more (1-5-1 ATS this season).
Losing teams that go on a little run of success generally continue to
thrive when facing lesser teams and Buffalo applies in a solid 60-25-
5 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on their recent
run. My ratings favor Buffalo by 8 ½ points in this game (which is
where the line opened), so we have line value to go along with the
good situation and I?ll lay 7 points or less with the Bulls in a 2-
Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
04:30 PM Pacific Time
**VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (-7 points or less) 78 Drexel 64
VCU won at Drexel 70-69 a few weeks ago despite making just 2 of 8
free throws and they have an excellent chance for the series sweep
tonight. In fact, the Rams qualify in a solid 82-38-4 ATS home sweep
angle as long as they are not favored by 8 points or more. Virginia
Commonwealth and Drexel are both playing well, as the Rams have won
and covered in 5 straight games and 7 out of 8, while the Dragons
have won 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 games (although just 3-3-1
ATS in those 7 games). Drexel is a much better investment when they
are supposed to win straight up, as the Dragons are 21-10-2 ATS as a
favorite under coach Bruiser Flint, but a modest 16-17-1 ATS as an
underdog. Drexel also hasn?t handled prosperity very well under Flint
and they are just 2-8-1 ATS following 3 or more consecutive
victories, including 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 2 points or more. VCU,
meanwhile, is 21-9 ATS in conference home games in recent years,
including 14-3 ATS when not laying 8 points or more. My ratings favor
VCU by 6 ½ points in this game (but it would be 11 points using
conference games only for each team) and I?ll lay 7 points or less
with the Rams in a 2-Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
05:00 PM Pacific Time
**TEXAS (-13 points or less) 85 Colorado 65
Texas has been a good investment since Rick Barnes took over 6
seasons ago (81-56-3 ATS in all regular season game) and Barnes
rarely is beaten by mediocre and bad teams. Barnes? teams also get
better as the season goes on and the Longhorns have been very
profitable in conference play against mediocre and bad teams, going
33-8-1 ATS in the regular season when not laying more than 13 points
against conference opponents with a win percentage of .750 or less.
Colorado has played pretty well away from home this season, but the
Buffaloes are just 8-25-2 ATS in 9 seasons under coach Patton when
not getting more than 12 points away from home against conference
foes with a winning record. My ratings favor Texas by 13 ½ points and
I?ll lay 13 points or less with the Longhorns in a 2-Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
06:00 PM Pacific Time
**Maryland (-4 points or less) 82 VIRGINIA 71
Maryland has lost 4 of their last 5 games, but the Terrapins are due
to bounce-back tonight against a Virginia team that they match-up
very well against. Maryland is in a similar situation as they were in
when they won 65-52 at Clemson as a 6 point favorite a couple of
weeks ago, when they were also coming off consecutive losing efforts.
What turned motivation into an easy win in that game was Clemson?s
inability to take advantage of Maryland?s soft perimeter defense and
Virginia will likely have similar issues. Maryland has perhaps the
nation?s best interior defense, allowing just 38.4% on opponent?s 2-
point shots (the national average is 48% on 2-pointers), but they
sacrifice open 3-point shots and they?ve allowed opposing teams to
knock down 36.6% of shots beyond the arc this season. The Terrapins
tend to have success when facing teams that aren?t very good shooting
from long range and Virginia is the ACC?s worst 3-point shooting team
at 32.0% (Clemson shoots 32.3%). Aside from the good match-up, the
Terps qualify in a solid 150-80-8 ATS road bounce-back situation and
a very good 93-43-3 ATS double-revenge situation (Virginia managed to
upset the Terps twice last year). Maryland?s recent slump has
provided good line value for this game, as my ratings favor the
Terrapins by 4 ½ points in this game. I?ll lay 4 points or less with
Maryland in a 2-Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
04:30 PM Pacific Time
**Manhattan (-19 points or less) 78 LOYOLA MARYLAND 52
Loyola Maryland finally won a game when they beat Marist here last
week, but the Greyhounds have been whipped on a regular basis by
decent teams and they qualify in a negative 18-44-1 ATS big home
underdog situation. Manhattan is the class of the Metro Atlantic
Conference once again and they have already won a couple of league
road games by 18 points or more this season. Loyola, meanwhile, is
just 10-17 ATS at home the last few years, including 2-6 ATS this
season, and they lost by 20 points or more here against the only two
decent teams that they hosted, Princeton and Niagara, ? neither of
whom are as good as Manhattan. My ratings favor the Jaspers by 21 ½
points in this game and the fact that they were upset in their most
recent road game (at Iona) will assure that they don?t take this game
for granted. Manhattan beat Loyola by 33 points at home despite the
fact that the Greyhounds shot 47% from 3-point range in that game. I
doubt that Loyola will shoot as well in this game or that they?ll
come within 20 points of Manhattan. I?ll lay 19 points or less with
the Jaspers and I?ll make them a 3-Star at -17 points or less.
Upgrade Manhattan to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 17
points or less.
Opinion
LA Clippers (+6) 97 BOSTON 98
I realize that the Clippers best player Corey Maggette is out for this game with a
sprained ankle, but the line on this game is still too high. The Clippers have been about
an average team since Elton Brand?s been in the lineup (he missed 13 games) and the
Celtics have been about 3 points worse than an average team since their trade with
Cleveland, which brought defensive liability and ball hog Ricky Davis to the team. A fair
line on this game would be a pick with Maggette playing and I?d make the line Boston by 3
points with Maggette out (he?s worth 2.9 points). Boston is also just 9-17 ATS at home
this season, including 4-16 ATS when hosting a team with a win percentage of .375 or
better (0-9 ATS in those games recently). The Clippers have a solid 57% chance of
covering at +6 points tonight and that makes them worth of a Strong Opinion.
TEXAS SPORTS WIRE
5*TEXAS
3*MEMPHIS--W MICH
NBA
3*RAPTORS UNDER--ROCKETS UNDER
