Service Plays Final Four Saturday 4/3/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

From my buddy Cork:

Steve Budin

25 Dimes - Duke

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Al

5* Butler
3* Duke

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB DUNKEL


SATURDAY, APRIL 3

Game 819-820: Michigan State vs. Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 71.763; Butler 69.873
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 2
Vegas Line: Butler by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+1 1/2)

Game 821-822: West Virginia vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 72.899; Duke 78.428
Dunkel Line: Duke by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-2 1/2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB WRITE-UP


Final Four games

Butler is at home; its only six miles from Hinkle Fieldhouse to Lucas Oil Stadium, but Michigan State won a national title in Indy in 2000, so Izzo probably feels at home too. Bulldogs won last 24 games, already beating #1 seed Syracuse in its region. Last time there was a national semifinal game where neither team was a #1-4 seed was 2000, when Florida beat North Carolina before losing to Izzo's Spartans in final. Butler is 2-1 vs Big 11 teams, winning at Northwestern 67-54, Ohio State 74-66, losing to Minnesota on neutral floor, 82-73. Bulldogs are super on defense; can they keep Spartans away from offensive boards? Michigan State won by 30 over Valparaiso in its only game against an Horizon League team.

Duke is in first Final Four since '04; Huggins is in first one since '92 with Cincinnati. West Virginia beat Duke 73-67 in second round game back in '08, when Duke was #2 seed, WVa #7. Blue Devils lead country, holding foes to 27.8% behind arc; they're facing #1 offensive rebounding team in country. Duke played 4th-hardest schedule, WVa faced the #2 schedule, so both team are battle-tested. Duke is 2-1 vs Big East teams, losing at Georgetown by 12, beating St John's (80-71), UConn (68-59). Duke is on 8-game win streak, Mountaineers won last 10 (were an underdog in three of the ten) games. In its seven postseason games, West Virginia is allowing an average of just 55.9 ppg. Darryl Bryant not expected to be in lineup (foot) but Mountaineers beat Kentucky without him.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What bettors need to know

Michigan State vs. Butler

Michigan State Spartans vs. Butler Bulldogs (-1, 126), 6:05 p.m. ET

Spartan fighters

Tom Izzo has now taken Michigan State to a whopping six Final Fours since 1999, but this run has to be the wildest and most improbable of all.

The Spartans have won three of their four NCAA Tournament games by three points or fewer (70-67 over New Mexico State, 85-83 over Maryland, and 70-69 over Tennessee). Against the Terrapins, MSU lost star point guard Kalin Lucas to a torn Achilles and trailed by one point in the waning seconds, but Korie Lucious -Lucas’ backup -nailed a 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Additional adversity is still coming in the form of injuries, as guard Chris Allen (torn ligament in his right arch) and forward Delvon Roe (knee) are dealing with their own physical problems. Allen’s recent practices have involved only shooting and Roe faces offseason surgery.

So far the Spartans (28-8, 15-20 ATS) have overcome everything. Perhaps that’s part of the reason why Butler coach Brad Stevens called Michigan State “one of the great, if not the greatest program in the country over the last 12 years”, in an ESPN interview earlier this week.

But as if all of that isn’t enough for the Spartans, they now have to face a Final Four opponent that is playing in its home city. In fact, Butler is the first team since UCLA in 1972 (Final Four in Los Angeles) to enjoy such an opportunity.

24 in a row

Butler has won an incredible 24 consecutive games (12-12 ATS) heading into Saturday’s national semifinals. The Bulldogs have not lost since a December 22 trip to UAB, where a 67-57 setback dropped them to a pedestrian 8-4 mark.

111 days later, Butler will charge into Lucas Oil Stadium at 32-4 (16-20 ATS).

The last time a Tom Izzo-coached team faced an opponent on such a win streak was in the 1999 Final Four, as Duke rode a 31-game surge at the time. Michigan State succumbed to 68-62 to the Blue Devils.

These Bulldogs do not feature NBA lottery picks at multiple positions like those Blue Devils, but the Spartans know what Butler is all about.

“They're not mid-majors,” Roe told the Grand Rapids Press. “You learn when you play these teams not to underestimate them, or you'll end up like the other teams they played this year: out.”

“I'm sure their confidence is sky high,” Lucious noted. “They're going to be real confident because I'm sure they don't want their winning streak to be snapped. So they're going to come out with intensity and we're going to match it.”

Painter of the picture

Purdue faced Michigan State twice this season and shares the state of Indiana with Butler, so Boilermaker head coach Matt Painter is familiar with both participants in Saturday’s first Final Four showdown.

“Butler will push, but they're selective,” Painter said in a Wednesday teleconference. “If it's there, they go. If they get a wide-open shot in transition, they take it. But if not, they make you play and break down.

“But Butler doesn't get the credit they deserve for how tough they are and how good a defensive team they are.”

No team has reached the 60-point mark against the Bulldogs so far in this NCAA Tournament.

Painter, whose team won at Michigan State 76-64 on February 9 before losing to the Spartans 53-44 at home on February 28, said Saturday’s game will be a “race to 60.” In other words, the team that gets to 60 points first wins.

Common opponents

The Bulldogs faced three teams from the Big Ten during the regular season—Northwestern away, Minnesota on a neutral court and Ohio State at home. Butler handled the Wildcats 67-54, fell to the Gophers 82-73 and upset Ohio State 74-66.

Michigan State swept Northwestern with ease, went 2-1 against Minnesota (lost in the conference tournament) and dropped a 74-67 home decision to Ohio State.

Both Michigan State and Butler also faced Valparaiso. The Spartans destroyed Valpo 90-60 at home on November 22. The Bulldogs pulled out a 74-69 road victory on February 26.

Trending topics

The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games at neutral sites (and this is, technically, a neutral site). They are also 25-10-1 in their last 36 NCAA Tournament contests.

The Bulldogs are 7-3 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against Big Ten opponents.

Both Michigan State (16-18 O/U) and Butler (15-19 O/U) have leaned just slightly toward the under this season. The under is 8-1 in Butler’s last nine overall, but the over is 8-0 in MSU’s last eight against the Horizon League.


West Virginia vs. Duke

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2.5, 131), 8:45 p.m. ET.

The other Butler

Butler University, which is not only the official host of the Final Four but also an unlikely participant, is not the only “Butler” in town this weekend in Indianapolis.

Da’Sean Butler, of course, is West Virginia’s star player and senior leader. The 6-foot-7 forward (17.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.3 apg) boasts some impressive numbers, but his value extends far beyond the stat sheet.

Butler has hit six game-winning shots in the final seconds this season and he did it twice in the Big East tournament. Tied with the clock ticking down against Cincinnati, Butler delivered a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer. Butler then drained an off-balance, contested runner to beat Georgetown 60-58 in the championship.

“I can tell you right now from watching two games of tape, Butler one of best players in the country,” gushed Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski. “He’s a great player and a clutch player. Nobody has hit as many big shots as this kid. He loves the moment.”

“When your best player is the best person and unquestionably is your hardest worker you’re going to be good,” WVU coach Bob Huggins said during Monday’s Final Four conference call.

Butler was named a Second Team All-American by the Associated Press earlier this week. So, too, was Duke’s own Jon Scheyer.

Brothers in arms

Nobody is going to confuse this Duke team with any of the most talented Krzyzewski has ever coached, but these Blue Devils are not relying on basketball skills alone to get the job done.

“This team will really be brothers forever,” Krzyzewski told the Durham Herald Sun. “It's as close a team as I've had. They’ve been spectacular to coach.”

“We have a genuine love for each other,” added senior Lance Thomas. “We know that we need each other to win. Not one guy is going to lead us to victory in a game.”

With that love comes an acceptance of roles, embodied by Thomas himself. The 6-foot-8 forward scores a mere five points per game, but his eight offensive rebounds against Baylor made the undisputed difference in last weekend’s South Region final.

On a team that sees three players (Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith) combined for 53.2 ppg, Brian Zoubek contributes only 5.4 ppg (still good four fourth on the team). No matter, though, because the 7-foot-1 center has grabbed 35 rebounds in Duke’s past three NCAA victories.

“I think people have grown into knowing the value of their roles,” Krzyzewski noted. “They take value from what we see as value, but that takes maturity. These kids are very mature, so they understand that.”

Defense wins championships

West Virginia has limited six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 points. Even though Kentucky eclipsed that mark for 66 in the title game of the East Region, the Wildcats shot an unbelievably bad 4-of-32 from three-point range and turned the ball over 16 times.

“We don’t like being scored on,” forward Devin Ebanks told the Times West Virginian. “We try to limit everybody’s scoring and limit their touches. It’s fun knowing that you can shut the other person down and outrebound the other team, just outman them, out-tough them. It’s a fun way to play.”

Duke has held three of its four NCAA Tournament opponents to fewer than 60 points (Baylor scored 71). The Blue Devils have not allowed more than 74 points since giving up 89 to Georgetown on January 30. Ten of their last 15 opponents have not reached 60 and four of their last 10 opponents did not even pass 50.

Common opponents

The Blue Devils went up against three teams from the Big East during the regular season—Connecticut on a neutral court, St. John’s at home and Georgetown in Washington. Duke dispatched the Huskies 68-59, beat St. John’s 80-71 and trailed Georgetown almost the entire way in an 89-77 loss.

West Virginia fell at Connecticut 73-62, crushed St. John’s on the road 79-60 and swept Georgetown (81-68 at home on March 1, 60-58 two weeks later in the Big East tournament final).

The one other common opponent this season was Long Beach State. The Mountaineers eased their way to an 85-62 road win back in November and the Blue Devils—at home—scored a similar 84-63 victory over the 49ers.

Trending topics

The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their four NCAA Tournament games, 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference contests and 5-1 ATS in their last six against ACC opponents.

The Blue Devils are also 4-0 ATS during this NCAA Tournament, but they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against Big East opposition.

West Virginia (15-19 O/U) has been a decent under play this season and the under has definitely been the way to go with Duke (15-22 O/U). The under is 7-1 in WVU’s last eight overall and 4-1 in Duke’s last five overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Final Four and championship game tourney trends

It’s onward to Indianapolis for the Final Four games. Listed below are some interesting trends and angles to consider before our Fab Four takes a final spin in Circle City this weekend. All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Final Four round notes

• One-seeds who are 4-0 ATS in the tourney are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS on the last weekend (Duke)

• Two-seeds are 1-7 ATS off a double-digit ATS win (West Virginia)

• Teams off back to back outright dog wins are 2-8 ATS (Butler)

• ACC teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2002 (Duke)

• Big East teams are 0-3 ATS since 2004 (West Virginia)

• Teams with the greater win percentage are 8-2 ATS last five years (Butler and Duke)

• Returnees from last year in this round are 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (Michigan State)

Championship notes

• One-seed faves are 6-1 ATS

• Two-seeds are 0-5 ATS off an ATS win

• Five or worse seeds are 0-3 SU & ATS

• Favorites of 5 points or less are 10-1 ATS

• Favorites who scored 80 or more points in the Final Four round are 4-1 ATS

• Teams with a win percentage of .810 or less are 0-4 SU & ATS

• Teams off five straight tourney ATS wins are 4-1 ATS

• Teams that have scored the most points in the tourney are 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS

• Underdogs of 3 points or more off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS

• Big East teams are 3-0 ATS

• ACC teams are 9-2 ATS

• Big Ten teams are 1-6 ATS

Coach me up

• Butler’s Brad Stevens: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as an NCAA tourney favorite… 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents… 41-2 SU at home, including 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents.

• Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski: 39-4 SU versus .750 or less opponents and 14-11 SU versus greater than .750 foes, including 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite in this tourney… 5-1 SU and 4-2 in Final Four games and 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in NCAA championship games.

• Michigan State’s Tom Izzo: 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS versus Horizon League competition… 21-5 ATS versus opponent off SU and ATS win in this tourney… 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in Final Four and 1-1 SU and ATS in championship games in this event.

• West Virginia’s Bob Huggins: 9-7 SU and ATS versus ACC opposition, including 3-1 SU and ATS in this tourney… 1-5 ATS as a dog in this tourney… 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS versus .718 or less opponents –but- 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS versus .724 or greater foes in this tourney.

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played in the last 20 years.

 

[BrockLanders]

The Vegas Killers - John Harrison

Duke -2 25 UNITs

 

[ugk]

JIMMY BOYD
3* FINAL FOUR SMASH* Butler Bulldogs, -1
5* FINAL FOUR BEST BET* Duke Blue Devils, -2

 

[ugk]

JOE WIZ
CBB LOCK OF THE YEAR* Duke Blue Devils,

 

[ugk]

MARC LAWRENCE (Preferred Picks)
3* FINAL FOUR* West Virginia Mountaineers,

 

[ugk]

SPORTS BETTING PROFESSOR
*MARKED SYSTEM PLAY* Butler Bulldogs, -1*

 

[ugk]

ALLEN EASTMAN (ACE-ACE)
1* Duke Blue Devils, Over 131
1.5* Michigan State Spartans, +1
2.5* Duke Blue Devils, -2

 

[ugk]

SPORTSBETSNOW
10-7 for tourney

3 units Duke -2.5

 

[ugk]

INDIAN COWBOY
NCAA GOY EARLY RELEASE
6* Butler -1 over Michigan St

 

[szlem]

john fina/winningwaysports GOY
Duke

 

[saku]

TheInsiderSports

4.3

Soccer Poland
POGON SZCZECIN @ -105
5/10
diamond

Motor without 7 regular players from the first squad.

Soccer Poland
Lech Poznan - Legia Warsaw over 2.0 goals @ -115
3/10
thegreek

Derby.

Soccer Belarus
Naftan Novopolock @ -150
5/10
5dimes

Naftan opponents sold all their players during winter break. Today they will play with juniors. Last game they lost 7:0

Soccer Brazil
OLARIA @ -133
4/10
diamond

Olaria opponents are resting their key players and today they will play with reserves and juniors

GL

 

[bookiemonster]

Bookiemonsters

clippers +14

15-3 run

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

4* Mich.St. +1

Hopkins/Jones un 11.5+120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GOLD SHEET FINAL FOUR
Mich St 63-60
Duke 72-65