Simon | CBB Sides - Saturday, Apr 2 2016 8:45PM
813 Syracuse 9.5(-110) Southpoint vs 814 North Carolina double-dime bet
813 Syracuse 9.5(-110) Southpoint vs 814 North Carolina double-dime bet
ASI
NBA
PATRICK (1-0 +1.00) No Selection Today
DAVID (0-1 -1.10) No Selection Today
JEFF (1-0 +1.00) PHILADELPHIA/INDIANA OVER 203.5 (730PM)
College hoops
patrick (0-0 0.00) north carolina -9.5 syracuse (845pm)
david (0-0 0.00) syracuse/north carolina under 144 (845pm)
jeff (0-1 -1.10) oklahoma +2.5 villanova (605pm)
Nhl
jeff (0-0 0.00) san jose/nashville over 5.5 -105 (8pm)
patrick (0-0 0.00) ottawa/philadelphia over 5 -140 (1pm)
Soccer simon (1-2 -1.32)
peru - primera division (under 2.5 +105) defensor la bocana @ alianza atletico (130pm)
uruguay - primera division (over 2.5 -140) racing club montevideo @ danubio fc (230pm)
NBA
PATRICK (1-0 +1.00) No Selection Today
DAVID (0-1 -1.10) No Selection Today
JEFF (1-0 +1.00) PHILADELPHIA/INDIANA OVER 203.5 (730PM)
College hoops
patrick (0-0 0.00) north carolina -9.5 syracuse (845pm)
david (0-0 0.00) syracuse/north carolina under 144 (845pm)
jeff (0-1 -1.10) oklahoma +2.5 villanova (605pm)
Nhl
jeff (0-0 0.00) san jose/nashville over 5.5 -105 (8pm)
patrick (0-0 0.00) ottawa/philadelphia over 5 -140 (1pm)
Soccer simon (1-2 -1.32)
peru - primera division (under 2.5 +105) defensor la bocana @ alianza atletico (130pm)
uruguay - primera division (over 2.5 -140) racing club montevideo @ danubio fc (230pm)
Steve Merril CBB Sides - Saturday, Apr 2 2016 8:45PM
North Carolina -9.0(-110)vs Syracuse double-dime bet
North Carolina -9.0(-110)vs Syracuse double-dime bet
BOB BALFE
6:05 EST
Rotation #811-812
Oklahoma +2 over Villanova
Buddy Hield is the best player in the country and typically in these tournament great players step up and show us how incredible they are. Nova is a great basketball team, but I don’t think they have the athletic ability to shutdown the starters that the Sooners have. If Nova can get Oklahoma into foul trouble they have a great shot at winning this game, but again I think this game comes down to the final minutes and Hield will take over. Take Oklahoma.
8:45 EST
Rotation #813-814
UNC -9.5 over Syracuse
It was wild seeing the NIT Final Four teams have better RPI ratings than Cuse. This is a great basketball team with a hell of a coach, but today they go up against in my opinion the best team in the nation. UNC is too athletic and will get second chance points. Syracuse is not a good offensive team and just can keep up with a superior team in this type of game. This might be close for the first half, but the magic for the Orange should run out. Take UNC.
6:05 EST
Rotation #811-812
Oklahoma +2 over Villanova
Buddy Hield is the best player in the country and typically in these tournament great players step up and show us how incredible they are. Nova is a great basketball team, but I don’t think they have the athletic ability to shutdown the starters that the Sooners have. If Nova can get Oklahoma into foul trouble they have a great shot at winning this game, but again I think this game comes down to the final minutes and Hield will take over. Take Oklahoma.
8:45 EST
Rotation #813-814
UNC -9.5 over Syracuse
It was wild seeing the NIT Final Four teams have better RPI ratings than Cuse. This is a great basketball team with a hell of a coach, but today they go up against in my opinion the best team in the nation. UNC is too athletic and will get second chance points. Syracuse is not a good offensive team and just can keep up with a superior team in this type of game. This might be close for the first half, but the magic for the Orange should run out. Take UNC.
JOE GAVAZZI
NCAA Final Four
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Villanova (-2) vs. Oklahoma 6:05 ET
Oklahoma and Villanova meet in the Final Four lid lifter at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The game is slated for a 6:05 ET tip, as televised by TBS TV. These two met earlier this season in Hawaii on December 7th. The Sooners bolted to an early lead and never looked back, recording a (78-75) victory. Much of that margin came on 3 point differential. Oklahoma made (14) 3 pointers in that game (4 each by Hield and Cousins), while Villanova could knock down just 4/32 from behind the arc. That difference of (10) 3 pointers translates to 30 points!
Today, the Wildcats are looking to get their revenge for one of only 5 losses this season. That includes an outstanding record in the Big East of 16-2 SU. In the Wildcats only revenge game of the year against Providence, they won on the road (72-60) as 5 point road chalk after suffering their only home loss of the season (82-76) as 13 point home favorite January 24th. Villanova has been scorching opponents all season long with a 4 perimeter attack, surrounding quality big man, Ochefu in the paint. The steadying hand of senior PG Arcidiacono runs the show with slashers and shooters such as Jenkins and Hart offering support. After losing to Seton Hall in the Big East CCT Final (69-67), the Wildcats have stormed the NCAA handling increasingly more difficult opposition. With an 86-56 win over Asheville and an 87-68 win over Iowa, a 92-69 win over Miami and a 64-59 win over Kansas. Along the way, they have covered those four games by an amazing 54 points. Thus entering on a 4-0 SU ATS run, off a straight up dog win over the Tourney’s No. 1 seed, Kansas. That’s a bit too rich for my blood. Granted, Villanova is a (8.7) 3* fundamental team. These teams are 22-15 ATS (60%) in the NCAA Tourney, when NOT facing another 3* fundamental team. Oklahoma is NOT with a negative net TO margin. Just to remind you, 3* fundamental teams have a positive rebound margin, a positive assist/TO ratio and a positive TO margin. The Wildcats drive and dish offense averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting (they hold opponents to just 40%). Nova knocks down 8.7 triples per game and seals the deal with 78% foul shooting. Impressive to be sure, yet our vote for today’s winner is the Oklahoma Sooners.
Anyone who watched the best college basketball game of the year on January 4th saw Oklahoma lose a 3 OT game at Kansas, where the Jayhawks rarely lose (61-2 SU L4Y). Despite losing that game, the Sooners showed enough for them to be widely considered as the No. 1 team in the nation. Until the NCAA Tourney, however, they did not play to their potential. Since January 2nd, the 29-7 SU Sooner team went only 13-7 SU, following their loss to WVU in the CCT by a score of (69-67). That defeat also dropped them to a slide of 6-16 ATS since a cover vs. Washington St. (December 16th). But, fortunes have turned for the Sooners at just the right time. After wins vs. Baker and VCU (the first weekend), the Sooners played incredible basketball in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, winning virtually wire-to-wire against A&M (77-63) and Oregon (80-63) covering those games by a combined 29 points. Now peaking at the perfect time, I believe the Sooners have the potential to win this event. Four experienced players in Hield, Cousins, Woodard and Spangler (over 100 consecutive starts together) have added Latin to their starting rotation for a group that clicks together with outstanding chemistry. These Sooners score 81 PPG and knock down an amazing 10.4 triples at 43% from behind the arc. An outburst of 14 triples, as in the first game vs. Villanova, simply would not surprise! And, if the game comes down to crunch-time, we are more than ready to put our money on “the player.” That, of course, would be Buddy Hield (the best NCAA Basketball player in the nation).
Syracuse vs North Carolina (-9-) 8:50 ET
Syracuse and North Carolina tip off the night cap of the Final Four at a scheduled time of 8:50 eastern Saturdayevening as televised by TBS TV. These ACC Conference foes met twice this season. In Boeheim’s return from a nine game suspension the Orange hosted the Heels at the Carrier Dome. North Carolina prevailed 84-73, despite shooting just 3/16 from behind the arc. The rematch came on February 29th in North Carolina’s LHG. Again, North Carolina prevailed, despite knocking down just 6 of 25 triples. A combined 9/41 from behind the arc is only 22%. If you can only knock down 1 out of 5 three point shots against the Syracuse zone, it seems unlikely that you would get the sweep. That is the scary part of making a selection on the Orange, as they lost both games despite Boeheim’s fabled 2-3 zone doing its job. Syracuse did little better from long range, going a combined 14-51 (27%) in the two games.
With the best statistical numbers in the Tournament, North Carolina is a (17.2) three star fundamental team. To again remind everyone the meaning of that rating, you are a three star fundamental team if you have a positive rebound margin (8.2), a positive TO/assist margin (+6.8), and a positive net TO margin (+2.2). The sum of those, 17.2, is the highest among any team in the NCAA. It is no surprise that North Carolina has made it to the Final Four. Note that when three star fundamental teams play teams who do NOT have a three star rating, these teams are 22-15 ATS (60%) in the NCAA Tournament this year. That is another scary reason to favor the Orange in this matchup. North Carolina enters this game with a 9 game winning streak; 5 more than any of the other Final Four participants, none of whom won their CCT. Since the post season (CCT) began, Carolina has whipped Pitt by 17, Notre Dame by 32, Virginia by 4, FGCU by 16, Providence by 19, Indiana by 15, and Notre Dame (again) by 14. With Johnson, Meeks, and Jackson up front, along with Page and Berry on the perimeter, there are few weaknesses for North Carolina. But remember that Achilles heel of North Carolina, which finds them knocking down just 5.4 triples per game at 31%.
For a team who wasn’t supposed to make the post season party (they lost 5 of 6 going in, including a 3 game losing streak), the Orange have done quite well for themselves. To date in this event, they have recorded a 19 point win over Dayton, beat MTSU by 25, took out Gonzaga by 3, and beat Virginia by 6 after trailing last weekend in that game by as many as 16 points in the closing minutes of the game. For those keeping score, that is 4-0 SU ATS, off consecutive underdog wins, with point spread coverage of 64 points (16 PPG) in the NCAA Tournament.
There are few results that would surprise me in this game, as any outcome within 15 points of the line is thinkable. The athletic, but very young, pressure defense of the Orange that succeeded so well against Virginia could actually backfire on them against the North Carolina team that thrives in the open court. Rather than resulting in a 6 point win as they did vs Virginia, it could result in a 20 point North Carolina blowout. And Boeheim knows it. At the other end of the spectrum, the Syracuse zone appears to be an ideal weapon against North Carolina. Their athletic front line can pack the paint against the larger North Carolina front, yet they are rangy enough, all starters 6’4 or taller, to sprint to the perimeter to defend three pointers (the zone will look much like a pack line defense in this example). In any event, Boeheim, who has coached it for 40 years, is well aware of how to use the strength of his players and hide their weaknesses against every type of opponent.
With North Carolina a bit over confident after beating Syracuse twice, it would be no surprise to find the Orange competitive throughout. As described above, this game could well be decided in the closing minutes when the Orange are forced to pick up the pace if behind. Lean to the Orange in a game that I believe Syracuse could actually win.
NCAA Final Four
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Villanova (-2) vs. Oklahoma 6:05 ET
Oklahoma and Villanova meet in the Final Four lid lifter at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The game is slated for a 6:05 ET tip, as televised by TBS TV. These two met earlier this season in Hawaii on December 7th. The Sooners bolted to an early lead and never looked back, recording a (78-75) victory. Much of that margin came on 3 point differential. Oklahoma made (14) 3 pointers in that game (4 each by Hield and Cousins), while Villanova could knock down just 4/32 from behind the arc. That difference of (10) 3 pointers translates to 30 points!
Today, the Wildcats are looking to get their revenge for one of only 5 losses this season. That includes an outstanding record in the Big East of 16-2 SU. In the Wildcats only revenge game of the year against Providence, they won on the road (72-60) as 5 point road chalk after suffering their only home loss of the season (82-76) as 13 point home favorite January 24th. Villanova has been scorching opponents all season long with a 4 perimeter attack, surrounding quality big man, Ochefu in the paint. The steadying hand of senior PG Arcidiacono runs the show with slashers and shooters such as Jenkins and Hart offering support. After losing to Seton Hall in the Big East CCT Final (69-67), the Wildcats have stormed the NCAA handling increasingly more difficult opposition. With an 86-56 win over Asheville and an 87-68 win over Iowa, a 92-69 win over Miami and a 64-59 win over Kansas. Along the way, they have covered those four games by an amazing 54 points. Thus entering on a 4-0 SU ATS run, off a straight up dog win over the Tourney’s No. 1 seed, Kansas. That’s a bit too rich for my blood. Granted, Villanova is a (8.7) 3* fundamental team. These teams are 22-15 ATS (60%) in the NCAA Tourney, when NOT facing another 3* fundamental team. Oklahoma is NOT with a negative net TO margin. Just to remind you, 3* fundamental teams have a positive rebound margin, a positive assist/TO ratio and a positive TO margin. The Wildcats drive and dish offense averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting (they hold opponents to just 40%). Nova knocks down 8.7 triples per game and seals the deal with 78% foul shooting. Impressive to be sure, yet our vote for today’s winner is the Oklahoma Sooners.
Anyone who watched the best college basketball game of the year on January 4th saw Oklahoma lose a 3 OT game at Kansas, where the Jayhawks rarely lose (61-2 SU L4Y). Despite losing that game, the Sooners showed enough for them to be widely considered as the No. 1 team in the nation. Until the NCAA Tourney, however, they did not play to their potential. Since January 2nd, the 29-7 SU Sooner team went only 13-7 SU, following their loss to WVU in the CCT by a score of (69-67). That defeat also dropped them to a slide of 6-16 ATS since a cover vs. Washington St. (December 16th). But, fortunes have turned for the Sooners at just the right time. After wins vs. Baker and VCU (the first weekend), the Sooners played incredible basketball in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, winning virtually wire-to-wire against A&M (77-63) and Oregon (80-63) covering those games by a combined 29 points. Now peaking at the perfect time, I believe the Sooners have the potential to win this event. Four experienced players in Hield, Cousins, Woodard and Spangler (over 100 consecutive starts together) have added Latin to their starting rotation for a group that clicks together with outstanding chemistry. These Sooners score 81 PPG and knock down an amazing 10.4 triples at 43% from behind the arc. An outburst of 14 triples, as in the first game vs. Villanova, simply would not surprise! And, if the game comes down to crunch-time, we are more than ready to put our money on “the player.” That, of course, would be Buddy Hield (the best NCAA Basketball player in the nation).
Syracuse vs North Carolina (-9-) 8:50 ET
Syracuse and North Carolina tip off the night cap of the Final Four at a scheduled time of 8:50 eastern Saturdayevening as televised by TBS TV. These ACC Conference foes met twice this season. In Boeheim’s return from a nine game suspension the Orange hosted the Heels at the Carrier Dome. North Carolina prevailed 84-73, despite shooting just 3/16 from behind the arc. The rematch came on February 29th in North Carolina’s LHG. Again, North Carolina prevailed, despite knocking down just 6 of 25 triples. A combined 9/41 from behind the arc is only 22%. If you can only knock down 1 out of 5 three point shots against the Syracuse zone, it seems unlikely that you would get the sweep. That is the scary part of making a selection on the Orange, as they lost both games despite Boeheim’s fabled 2-3 zone doing its job. Syracuse did little better from long range, going a combined 14-51 (27%) in the two games.
With the best statistical numbers in the Tournament, North Carolina is a (17.2) three star fundamental team. To again remind everyone the meaning of that rating, you are a three star fundamental team if you have a positive rebound margin (8.2), a positive TO/assist margin (+6.8), and a positive net TO margin (+2.2). The sum of those, 17.2, is the highest among any team in the NCAA. It is no surprise that North Carolina has made it to the Final Four. Note that when three star fundamental teams play teams who do NOT have a three star rating, these teams are 22-15 ATS (60%) in the NCAA Tournament this year. That is another scary reason to favor the Orange in this matchup. North Carolina enters this game with a 9 game winning streak; 5 more than any of the other Final Four participants, none of whom won their CCT. Since the post season (CCT) began, Carolina has whipped Pitt by 17, Notre Dame by 32, Virginia by 4, FGCU by 16, Providence by 19, Indiana by 15, and Notre Dame (again) by 14. With Johnson, Meeks, and Jackson up front, along with Page and Berry on the perimeter, there are few weaknesses for North Carolina. But remember that Achilles heel of North Carolina, which finds them knocking down just 5.4 triples per game at 31%.
For a team who wasn’t supposed to make the post season party (they lost 5 of 6 going in, including a 3 game losing streak), the Orange have done quite well for themselves. To date in this event, they have recorded a 19 point win over Dayton, beat MTSU by 25, took out Gonzaga by 3, and beat Virginia by 6 after trailing last weekend in that game by as many as 16 points in the closing minutes of the game. For those keeping score, that is 4-0 SU ATS, off consecutive underdog wins, with point spread coverage of 64 points (16 PPG) in the NCAA Tournament.
There are few results that would surprise me in this game, as any outcome within 15 points of the line is thinkable. The athletic, but very young, pressure defense of the Orange that succeeded so well against Virginia could actually backfire on them against the North Carolina team that thrives in the open court. Rather than resulting in a 6 point win as they did vs Virginia, it could result in a 20 point North Carolina blowout. And Boeheim knows it. At the other end of the spectrum, the Syracuse zone appears to be an ideal weapon against North Carolina. Their athletic front line can pack the paint against the larger North Carolina front, yet they are rangy enough, all starters 6’4 or taller, to sprint to the perimeter to defend three pointers (the zone will look much like a pack line defense in this example). In any event, Boeheim, who has coached it for 40 years, is well aware of how to use the strength of his players and hide their weaknesses against every type of opponent.
With North Carolina a bit over confident after beating Syracuse twice, it would be no surprise to find the Orange competitive throughout. As described above, this game could well be decided in the closing minutes when the Orange are forced to pick up the pace if behind. Lean to the Orange in a game that I believe Syracuse could actually win.
