[h=3]John Ryan - Premium Picks[/h]
Play on: Villanova +3 -105
Top Play
50* graded play on Villanova as they take on UNC in the NCAA Championship game set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game and are currently installed as a 2 ½ point dogs. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 41* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-25 ATS mark good for 71.3% winners since 1997. Play on an underdog (VILLANOVA) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. These are Money Line situations as well reflecting the upset. Villanova is a near-perfect 12-1 against the money line (+11.0 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-2 against the money line (+11.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 10-1 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game this season; 18-1 against the money line (+15.5 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 19-3 against the money line (+14.3 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points UNC has had an easy route to this Championship game while Villanova has played the most difficult schedule any No. 2 seed as had to faced in at least the past 10 Tournaments. UNC wins against Florida Gulf Coast, Providence, Indiana, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. Only Indiana was a test since they are the second best shooting team in the nation. Villanova has had to defeat UNC-Ashville, IOWA, Miami (Fla), KANSAS, OKLAHOMA – and I certainly meant the BOLD type. This ‘seasoning’ will more than make Villanova fully prepared for the size and length of UNC. Plus, they already defeated Kansas, the no.1 overall seed in the Tournament. Enough already. Take Villanova.