Steve Merril
(1% opinion) ALABAMA -6.5 (vs. Clemson) - 8:00 pm ET (ESPN) #152
Clemson and Alabama will meet once again for the National Title; the Crimson Tide won 45-40 last year. Clemson had a surprising season by going 13-1 SU. The Tigers were projected to regress after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 14-1 SU team. Clemson certainly has a terrific team, but this is a poor matchup for them against Alabama. Clemson’s offense faced defenses that gave up 26.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play. The Tigers will now face an Alabama defense that only gave up 11.4 points per game on 3.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play this season. The Crimson Tide defense was also stout away from home where they gave up just 16 points per game on 4.1 yards per play. While it’s true Clemson gave Alabama all they could handle in last year’s game, the Tigers still trailed by 12 points with less than 15 seconds to play before scoring a late spread-covering touchdown.
Alabama is a perfect 14-0 SU this season with their closest game being a 5-point win over Mississippi way back in Week 3. The Rebels were the only team to beat Alabama the previous season as well. Thirteen of their fourteen wins this season have come by 10 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +27.9 points per game. Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 249 yards per game on the ground and 212 yards per game thru the air. Overall, Alabama averaged 39.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 25.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play. The initial look-ahead line was Alabama -12 one month ago, but this line is now much lower as the public is heavily backing the underdog tonight. Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in the national championship game on Monday night.