VR. 5* GOY. Texas +4 Bodog is using +4.5
VR analysis
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> vegas-runner | CFB Side Thu, 01/07/10 - 8:10 PM
triple-dime bet 267 Texas 4.0 (-110)
Bodog vs 268 Alabama
Analysis:
***** CFB BCS CHAMPIONSHIP 5* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR *****
Bodog is using +4.5...And the reason that we decided to pass along this Bet early, is because I have heard that there is an extremely sharp Betting Syndicate who is considering a HUGE POSITION on TEXAS...The Wiseguys are already the reason that this number has come back down, from a high of "6"...even though the betting public is betting Alabama heavy...And more importantly, the sportsbooks claim to have a lot of "pending" parlays and teasers on that Alabama side...So even with all that public money, I feel that if this line goes up...then the Outfits will come through and BUY some more Texas...
Bottom Line here once again is TRUE VALUE...The point-spread is definitely based on nothing more than "public perception"...Proof of that is that fact that the Oddsmakers Poll had TEXAS above Alabama for almost the entire season, with Florida on top...And most sharps had Texas as a 1pt fav on a neutral site before those Championship Games...So I can promise y…ou that they didn't adjust their Ratings almost "5.5" full points...Or worse, "7" pts when this line was up to 6....
So regardless the outcome...we know going in that we are definitely getting the best of it as far as the line goes...Now that don't always guarantee a winner, but it does guarantee long-term success...Because if you can continue to put your money down, when you are getting the best of it...and employ proper money management...the books will NEVER be able to beat you over time...
But right now...this is only about 1 game...Tonight's game...And I truly believe that we are on the right side...Now let me tell you why..
Alabama accomplished a HUGE GOAL of beating Florida and capturing the SEC Title...While Texas is still 1 win away from their main goal for this season...It's the reason Colt McCoy and so many others returned for their senior season...
More importantly...After beating Florida the way they did...and seeing how Texas barely even got into this game...I think Alabama is coming in a bit too confident, and you just can't do that when your opponent is just as talented, if not more talented than you are...
Next, I love the fact that we have a SR QB, going up against a JR QB, who made only "11" attempts as a Sophomore...And I think it will be extremely difficult for McElroy to even come close to doing what he did in that SEC Championship Game...
So for TEXAS, it's going to come down to stopping Ingram...And they are the "#1" DEFENSE AGAINST the RUN in College Football this year...And on the flip side, the only way you can get to the Alabama...is through the air...and that's something that I expect McCoy to be able to do...
Texas will come in with a chip on their shoulders and something to prove, because many say they shouldn't even be here...And we've seen that they are "27-13" (68% ATS) as a DOG...which supports the fact that they come to play when expected to lose...
In the end, I just feel that this is too much Value to pass up...and that the situation favors us as well...I expect an extremely close game...And when I can get over a FG, in a spot like this, I'm willing to step up and fire my biggest UNIT amount...VR
*** With that said fellas...You have to always practice money management because the truth is, the very best sports bettors will cash their best bets maybe 60% of the time long-term...So please make sure that you wager accordingly***