Spreizter GOY
Scott Spreitzer - Scott Spreitzer's **BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR!** (11-3, 79% All-Time) Jan. 7
(267) TEXAS (+4.0, ov45.5)
(268) ALABAMA (-4.0, un45.5)
Thursday, Jan 07 2010, 05:10 PM PST
Take " (267) TEXAS "
I'm taking the points with Texas on Thursday night. In a battle between two comparable and outstanding defenses, I'm going to grab the more diverse offense with the better QB. Yes, Greg McElroy had his moments during the season's stretch run and in the SEC title game. But his offense will be facing the most ferocious run defense they have seen all season when they line up against Texas. The Longhorns own the best run defense in the nation, allowing just 62.9 yards rushing per game and less than 190 yards passing per game. McElroy will have to make his share of big plays to win this game. That's going to be especially tough against a team that has 41 sacks on the season, due mostly to their outstanding defensive line. Then there's the opportunistic Longhorn secondary that's tops in the nation with 24 interceptions. WR Julio Jones had hamstring issues for much of the season, but he's healthy for the championship game. But if Mark Ingram and Greg McElroy are bottled up and harrassed, Jones will not be able to provide a lot of help. It's a good receiving corps, by the way, but not a great one. As far as the Texas' offense is concerned, it may not have felt like it then, but the Longhorns may have received just what they needed when they were smacked in the chops by Nebraska's defense in the Big-12 championship. Because of that game, Mack Brown and staff have made some adjustments on the line. Accroding to reports, the Alabama defense may be in for more quick-hitters from McCoy than normal. I also expect to see more counters than they offered in the running game. Texas employs a deep running game with four players rushing for more than 300 yards this season, including McCoy's 348. Jordan Shipley gets all of the ink at wideout, but Texas is also deep at wide receiver. Four players have at least 445 yards receiving. And as mentioned, Texas had to deal with Nebraska's defense. The Tide may own a better number in a statistical category or two, but their defense will be no better than UT already saw in that game. I can't stress how much that contest will have helped this Texas offense. The Longhorns own a huge advantage on special teams. They're the #1 team in the nation with seven touchdown returns, and kicking is also a major strength. Bama has struggled in coverage, allowing almost 26 yards per return and gave up a couple of returns for scores. Texas is a perfect 3-0 SU in BCS bowls, including one championship under Brown. Nick Saban owns a championship ring with LSU, but he's just 4-6 SU/ATS in bowl games. The Longhorns are on a 20-8-1 ATS run as a dog, including 4-0 the last four times. They're 10-5 ATS as a dog under Brown, with NINE outright wins. The Longhorns have also won five straight bowl games with Brown calling the shots. I grade these defenses as being virtually even. I give Texas a strong edge on offense, thanks to a huge edge with McCoy over McElroy. Texas also owns the better receiving corps, and isn't limited to one runner out of the backfield. Mack Brown gets his sixth straight bowl win and his second "mythical" national title, in impressive fashion. I'm taking the points with Texas, my Bowl Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.
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