DABOMB N.F.L [REC 53-35.] <<(Guys good, 9-3 in basketball yesterday)
Cincinnati -3 vs San Francisco
Atlanta +7½ at Indianapolis
Minnesota -3 at Chicago
Under 37 Houston at Tampa Bay
Under 38½ Buffalo at Tennessee
Baltimore -6½ at Oakland
New Orleans -7 vs NY Giants
Bengals - Seems there are two teams to always go against on the road this season, Arizona is one and Frisco is the other. San Fran yet to win SU on the road, 0-6 on the year away, 1-4-1 ATS. Carry Niners road woes a step further and look at non-division games away and see that they've lost big, by 38 at Baltimore, 10 at Green Bay and by 28 at Minnesota. San Fran on road in December in Cincinnati doesn't look good for Niners. SF 6-total wins on the season and four of those have been against bottom-feeders, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Chicago, teams that are a combined 17-35. Another win over a losing team, Tampa Bay and only win on the season over a team that has a winning record, St. Louis who is very mediocre away. Cincy with an overall winning record and 4-1 SU and ATS L5 games. Lost last game breaking a 4-game win streak but that was their third consecutive road game. Bengals off a big loss returning home for first time in 4-weeks and SF off a big win, west-coast warm weather team hitting the road to a cold-weather city, classic bounce situation. Thus far under first year HC-Lewis, Cincy 3-1 ATS in bounce games and have won L3 SU and ATS after a loss. Buy it down to 2½.
Falcons - Colts have beat only one team in L9 games by more than a touch and that was Houston. Colts defense started out strong but has fallen off significantly down the stretch, 27+ points allowed in 4 of L5 games. Indy 1-3 ATS L4 at home. Falcs with Vick back and playing in dome should get their points as well. Falcs despite a limited offense mostly without Vick has held 5 of L6 opp to 23 points or less and have allowed only an avg of 20.3-ppg L6 games. Indy off a tough stretch with L3 games decided by 4-points or less, have to question how much they have in the tank for this one off the big win at Tennessee (classic letdown situation) and had a tough game against Pats the week before that. Indy got win over Tenn only due to 4 TO's to none. Colts may be without two starters in defensive backfield, CB Nick Harper and FS Idrees Bashir will be game-time decisions. RB James carried 28-times against Titans top rated run defense and is reportedly tired. Over last six-games, James has faced four defenses ranked among the NFL's top seven against the run. Receiver Troy Walters (33 rec, 434 yds, 3-TD's) suffered a broken nose in last weeks game but will likely play. Seems Atlanta in better shape for this one and re-energized with return of Vick and with the sudden and unexpected firing of HC-Reeves, players should be giving their all in this one.
Vikings - Certainly don't think the Vikings are all that good and hate taking them as a road-division-fav, but spot looks too good to pass on despite Minn being a poor road team. Bears "officially" packing in the season in giving the start to rookie QB Rex Grossman. HC Dick Jauron really doesn't want to play him but is currently a lame-duck who will be terminated in the off-season. Grossman will be working behind a makeshift line with starting OL Gandy and Villarrial, listed as game-time-decisions, but both highly unlikely to play today. Vikes D thrives on pressure and leads the NFL with 25-Ints. Not a lot of Bears are going to be willing to put their bodies and careers on the line today with rumbling and dissension that they're no longer playing to win. Bears other goal is to get Anthony Thomas to 1,000 RY, he needs 257 over L3 games. Minny still playing to win division with one-game lead over the Pack and can ill afford to let this one slip by. With each teams priorities clear, have to go with Minny, will buy down to 2½.
Under Hou/TB - Game is OTB as many places, shops that have it at 37 as of this writing. Like the under 37, that's my limit on this one though wouldn't take it lower. Bucs big problem is that they haven't been able to score. Averaging less than 20-points a game on the season. have scored under 20 7 of L8 games. Houston offense down to rookie 3'rd string QB Ragone. They were shutout LW with him starting and managed only 124 total yards with more than 50 coming on QB scrambles. Bucs not a team to scramble on. Weather will not be good, thunderstorms likely, winds W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Bucs L4 games Under and Under 7 of L8. Texans Under 3 of L4 games.
Under Buff/Ten - Another game OTB as most spots, but like the under at 37 or better. Bills have had only one game all season go over the total and that was in week #2. Averaging less than 13-ppg over L8. Before putting up 24 at NYG, were held to single digits in prev 4-road games, 6, 5, 3 and 7. Titans rush defense should turn Bills one-dimensional and Bledsloe has been taking a beating when forced to pass. Titans's QB McNair questionable and less than 100% if he does go. Bills lone bright spot is their defense, have allowed only a combined 52-points in L5 games and L2 opp held to single digits.
Ravens - Oakland absolutely quit on HC Callahan going into LW's game at Pittsburgh. Callahan blasted them in the press and he has lost control of this team. Ravens fighting hard with one game lead over Cincy for Division lead. Raiders' defense has been decimated by injuries, placing five starters on injured reserve. Meanwhile offense down to 3'rd string QB Rick Mirer who is hobbled with an ankle injury. Ravens NFL injury report this week is exaggerated, key players are going to play. Raiders have scored no more than 8 points in L2 games and have been outscored by 49-15 L2. Overall Oakland ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in 20 of 38 major offensive and defensive categories. Ravens defense providing team with points and should have their way with Oakland offense. Meanwhile RB Jamal Lewis the league's leading rusher goes against the Raiders' run defense that ranks second to last in the league. Ravens should own the ball and the clock when they want. One team wants a win here and the other is waiting for the season to end. I don't think Raiders want any piece of the Ravens.
Saints - Giants play has been pathetic of late. In 3 of L5 games have been held to 7-total points, haven't topped 13 in L5 and avg only 8.8-ppg in that span. QB Kerry Collins, who had started 67 consecutive games, is out after sustaining a high ankle sprain last Sunday. Jesse Palmer gets first ever start in NFL on road in NO on Prime Time. Palmer has admitted to not getting much sleep this week due to excitement. Collins has not been the problem with Giants anemic scoring. Palmer will also be likely without WR Ike Hilliard (knee) and TE Jeremy Shockey (knee). Coming into the season, Palmer had attempted just four NFL passes, completing three for 30 yards. Overall Palmer has completed 9 of 15 passes for 92 yards and has been sacked 6-times in that limited activity. Giants' offensive front includes one rookie, one first-year player and two second-year players. Saints should bring pressure from all directions. Overall only 4-original starters are starting on offense today. Giants a minus-9 in TO margin L5 games, should go up today. Another lame-duck HC-Fassell has stated Palmer has looked rusty in practice but will be given a fair chance before going to veteran Jason Garret. Doesn't sound too optimistic. Giants D has allowed over 300 RY L2 weeks. Prior to TB game LW Saints were avg near 200 RY a game prev 3-games.
DR. BOB....
NFL Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
CHICAGO (+3.0) 23 Minnesota 17
14-Dec-03 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Rex Grossman gets his first career action at quarterback for the Bears and he’ll have the good fortune of facing a bad
Vikings’ defense (5.9 yards per play allowed to teams that average a combined 5.1 yppl on offense for the season) that has given up an alarming 7.5 yppl in their last 4 road games (to teams that average just 5.0 yppl on offense). I’ve gone against the Vikings for Best Bet winners the last two times they were a road favorite, a 28-42 loss at San Diego and an 18-28 loss at Oakland, and I have no problem backing the Bears on their home field today, even with a rookie quarterback. Chicago’s Anthony Thomas (4.2 ypr) should have good success running the football against a soft Minnesota defensive front that’s surrendered 5.0 ypr this season (to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense) and Grossman can’t be too much worse throwing the football than Kordell Stewart has been (4.5 yards per pass play). Chicago’s offense will miss Stewart’s running (288 yards at 5.0 ypr), but my math model still forecasts 20 points for Chicago after taking out Stewart’s running numbers and subtracting 0.4 yards per pass play from Chicago’s season average (just in case Grossman is worse). If I used Minnesota’s defensive numbers in their road games only, then the projection would be for 27.5 points for the Bears with Grossman at quarterback and I expect Chicago to score somewhere in between those numbers. Minnesota’s offense is very good (6.0 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense), but Chicago is a solid defensive team (4.9 yppl against teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense) that’s played even better recently (4.5 yppl allowed in their last 7 games). Overall my math model favors Minnesota by 1 ½ points after adjusting for Grossman at quarterback, but the math projection using only Chicago’s home games and Minnesota’s road games would be the Bears by 11 points, as Chicago has played very well at home this year (5 straight home spread wins) while Minnesota has been horrible on the road. The winter conditions aren’t likely to help Minnesota’s offense in this game and the Vikings also apply to a negative 55-142-3 ATS road favorite situation while Chicago applies to a 210-119-9 ATS statistical profile indicator, which suggests that they have the statistical characteristics of a team that should play better at home (which they obviously do). The Vikings, meanwhile, apply in a negative 77-140-13 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that they are the type of team that shouldn’t be trusted laying points on the road – a point that they’ve certainly proven. The Vikings are now 9-24-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or more and they are only decent in that role if they are playing well (8-8-1 ATS after consecutive wins, but 1-16- 1 ATS if not on a 2 game or more win streak). This game has all the makings of a solid 3-Star Best Bet, but I’ll only play Chicago for 3-Stars if they’re getting 3 points or more due to the uncertainty of having a rookie at quarterback in his first start (although there is a good chance he will be better throwing the ball than Stewart has been).
Downgrade Chicago to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of less than 3 points.
3 Star Selection
Seattle (+7) 26 ST. LOUIS 23
14-Dec-03 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I realize that St. Louis is much better at home than they are on the road (5-0-1 ATS at home this year) and that the Seahawks are just 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season, but the Rams are a grossly overrated team and last week’s fluky 26-20 win at Cleveland is not going to dissuade me from that belief (the Rams were out-played 4.7 yards per play to 5.6 yppl from the line of scrimmage in that game). The Rams offense is not nearly as good as people think, as that unit has averaged a modest 5.3 yards per play this season (against teams that combine to allow 5.1 yppl on defense) and they’ve only averaged 5.0 yppl in 5 games since a healthy Marshall Faulk returned to the lineup (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense). Seattle’s defense is just average, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense, so the Rams have just a 0.2 yppl advantage with their offense against the Seahawks’ defense. Seattle has a bigger advantage when they have the ball, as their attack has averaged 5.5 yppl (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense) while the Rams have given up 5.2 yppl on defense (to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense). So, Seattle is actually better than the Rams on both sides of the ball and they are much better on special teams (2 ½ points better, actually). So, why is it that the Rams are favored by 7 points in this game? My math model picks this game even and the math prediction was just Rams by 3 points if I only used their home games against the Seahawks’ road games. What makes this a Best Bet on the Seahawks is an incredible 57-12-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that applies to Seattle in this game and has been a consistent winner for me all season (Denver last week over KC). The one loss that angle has suffered was a game here in St. Louis, as the Ravens failed to cover as a 7 point underdog despite a 267 yards to 121 yard edge, as 7 turnovers led to a 22-33 loss. The fact that Baltimore turned the ball over 7 times and still almost covered the spread is a testament to how strong that indicator is. Despite Seattle’s road woes this year, they are still 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road underdog of 3 points or more and they’ve only lost 2 of their 6 road games by more than 7 points. The Seahawks’ 7-34 loss at Minnesota last week should also work in our favor, as Seattle hasn’t lost consecutive games all season, bouncing back each time with a victory. At worst, using the home-road math prediction, Seattle should be only a 3 point dog in this game, so we have some line value to go along with that 57-12-4 ATS indicator that is worth 7 ½ points. I’ll call for the Seahawks to win straight up and sweep the Rams.
2 Star Selection
ARIZONA (+6.5) 21 Carolina 19
14-Dec-03 01:15 PM Pacific Time
The Cardinals were destroyed 14-50 in San Francisco last week, continuing their trend of negative road performances. However, Arizona has been very good to me at home this year, as I’ve logged Best Bet winners in the Cards’ last 3 home games against St. Louis, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. Arizona also beat Green Bay on this field earlier this season and out-played Baltimore from the line of scrimmage (5.5 yards per play to 5.0 yppl) in an 8 point loss that was the result of a -3 in turnover margin. The Cardinals are once again in a good situation at home, as they face a struggling Panthers squad that qualifies in a negative 15-46-1 ATS statistical profile indicator that applies to road favorites of more than 3 points with statistical characteristics similar to the Panthers. Carolina lost at Atlanta last week and at Houston as a 6 ½ point favorite earlier this season, so it appears as if they are indeed the type of team that is not well suited for laying points on the road. Arizona, meanwhile, applies to a solid 213-127-13 ATS contrary situation and teams with a win percentage of .250 or worse that have lost 5 or more consecutive games are 83-37-2 ATS as an underdog or pick in their next game. Four of those 5 losses were on the road and Arizona took the Rams to overtime as a 7 ½ point underdog in their only home game during their 5 game slide. So, there is nothing to suggest that the Cardinals will play as poorly this week as they have on the road the past month. My only concern is the insertion of young Josh McCown into the starting lineup at quarterback for Arizona. Former starter Jeff Blake really hasn’t done a poor job of throwing the football, as he averaged 5.5 yards per pass play against a schedule of mostly good defensive teams that combined to allow only 5.6 yppp on defense. McCown has had extended action in two games this season and he’s averaged just 4.5 yppp in 72 pass plays (against teams that allow 5.6 yppp). McCown will probably perform a bit better after working with the first team offense in practice this week, but he’s not likely to perform as well as Blake has. Overall, Arizona has averaged 4.7 yards per play this season (against teams that allow 5.0 yppl), but they’ve been average offensively at home (5.0 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl) and they should move the ball at a decent clip against a mediocre Carolina defense (5.0 yppl against teams that average 5.1 yppl). The Panthers’ offense is a bit better than average (5.3 yppl with Delhomme at quarterback, against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl) and you’d expect them to move the ball pretty well against a sub-par Cardinals’ defense that’s surrendered 5.5 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense. However, Arizona’s defense has played pretty well at home (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense) and the Panthers have struggled offensively on the road (4.9 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl). After adjusting for McCown at quarterback, my math model favors Carolina by 7 ½ points. However, the math model using Carolina’s road games and Arizona’s home games favors the Panthers by just 2 points and the situations favoring Arizona are worth 5 points. I’ll go with Arizona again and hope the result is the same as the last 3 times I used them on their home field.
3 Star Selection
SAN DIEGO (+5.0) 28 Green Bay 21
14-Dec-03 01:15 PM Pacific Time
I’ve been on the underrated Chargers 4 times in the last 5 weeks and won with them 3 times. This looks like another good opportunity to back the Chargers, who are good offensively with Doug Flutie at quarterback (5.9 yppl in his 5 starts against teams that combine to allow 5.4 yppl on defense) and improved defensively since their week 6 bye week. The Chargers have allowed only 5.0 yppl in their last 8 games, to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense, and they certainly capable of slowing down a good Packers’ offense that’s averaged 5.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense). Green Bay’s offense has the advantage in that match-up, but the Chargers’ offense has an equal advantage over a mediocre Packers’ defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense). Overall, my math model favors the Chargers by 2 ½ points in this game with Flutie at quarterback, so there is plenty of line value in favor of our play. There are also plenty of technical factors favoring the Chargers in this game, as they qualify in a very strong 43-9 ATS home underdog momentum situation and a 210-119-9 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on home dogs (or small home favorites) with statistical characteristics similar to the Chargers. Green Bay, meanwhile, is just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite of more than 3 points, including straight up losses at Arizona and at Detroit this season. The Packers also apply in a negative 47-94-4 ATS road favorite situation and a 38-77-3 ATS road letdown situation that plays against teams coming off a high scoring home win. It all adds up to another solid Best Bet on the Chargers.
3 Star Selection
MIAMI (-2.0) 24 Philadelphia 13
15-Dec-03 06:00 PM Pacific Time
The Eagles have won and covered 8 straight games and I admit that they are a good team, as they are now better than average on offense (5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense), on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.0 yppl), and on special teams (0.5 points better than average). I actually rate Philly’s defense as 0.2 yppl better than their season averages because they’re finally fully healthy in the secondary and have allowed just 5.1 yards per pass play (against teams that average a combined 5.9 yppp on offense) in 5 games in which either CB Bobby Taylor or S Brian Dawkins have played (they both played opening day and in the last two games and each played without the other in one game). The Dolphins’ pass attack is better than average with Jay Fiedler at quarterback (he’s averaged 6.0 yppp this season against teams that allow a combined 5.7 yppp on defense) and Ricky Williams ought to have a pretty good night running the football against a soft Eagles’ defensive front that’s allowed 4.3 ypr this season (to teams that average a combined 4.1 ypr on offense). Philadelphia’s offense will be up against a superior Dolphins’ defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense). Overall, my math model favors the Dolphins by 1 point in this game, so the line is about right. However, the situation strongly favors Miami. The Eagles are in a number of negative situations, including a 22-69-1 ATS situation that went against Cincinnati last week. Philly qualifies in a 4-29-1 ATS subset of that angle and they also apply to a negative 68-135-5 ATS scheduling situation. Miami, meanwhile, applies in a solid 210-119-9 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Dolphins have been a good bet at home under coach Wannstadt, going 14-5 ATS in home games when not favored by 5 points or more. The Eagles have finally made a believer out of me, but the situation is strongly against them this week and the Dolphins are good enough to take advantage.
Animal...
4* Jacksonville
3* Dallas
BIG AL'S REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
NCAA
900 LINE KENT ST
NBA
5* PHOENIX
ONE-AND-ONLY 15* GAME OF THE YEAR St. Louis-Seattle
DAYTON SERVICE....
They're backing St. Louis to avenge a 24-23 loss at Seatlte in week 3, a game in which today's host coughed up a 23-10 fourth-quarter lead. They point out St. Louis is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of 16.8 points a game. On the other hand, they note Seattle has dropped five in a row on the road, both SU and ATS, and was crushed 34-7 at Minnesota a week ago.
Michael Nance Guaranteed Selections....
Michael Nance could of been a Solid Gold Dancer his picks are so SOLID! He is 8-1 in his NFL 10 STAR PICKS! Last week he gave Baltimore and they rolled over Cincy. Put on your gold spandex pants and get rich with Michael Nance's 10 STAR NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!
10* Minnesota -1.5
Sports Gambling Hotline...
NATION'S #1 FOOTBALL SERVICE
COLUMBUS, OHIO SERVICE
Their 5* Double-Digit Oddsmakers Error Game of the Year play is on Dallas to continue its mastery of Washington (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS series' runs; 5 straight in D.C.) and snap a three-game road losing streak in the process.
They note the Pokes' defense held Washington, with Patrick Ramsey at quarterback, to 213 total yards in week's nine's 21-14 victory. And the Dallas offense got a big game from Troy Hambrick (100 yards rushing, 2 TDs) against a porous Washington defense. They feel the same ingredients will be successful in today's rematch.
They also noted that you're getting tremendous line value, pointing out Dallas would have easily been at least a 4-point favorite if this contest had been played three weeks ago.
HIGHEST-RATED PLAY OF THE YEAR San Fran-Cincinnati
JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI SERVICE
Their first 6* play of the season is on San Francisco to win outright as the road dog at Cincinnati. They feel San Fran, a miserable road team over the past two seasons, arrives in Cincinnati with its offense in peak form after Jeff Garcia and Kevan Barlow had monster games in last Sunday's home rout of Arizona. And they feel San Fran is catching Cincy off a deflating defeat at Baltimore in which they were dominated in every facet of the game.
NATION'S #1 TOTALS SERVICE
LOUISVILLE SERVICE
Their Total of the Week is for New England-Jacksonville to stay under with a projected points to be scored of just 17.
They also have a top-rated 5* total on Baltimore-Oakland over with a projected points to be scored of 43.
Their final 5* play is on Carolina-Arizona to stay under with a projected points to be scored of 31.
Their last play is a 3* release on San Fran-Cincy to go over with a projected points to be scored of 47.
Andy Iskoe.....
Member Plays
Seattle at St. Louis Over (51.0, )
Time: 1:00 AM EDT (Sun)
Jacksonville (+7.0, ) at New England
Time: 1:00 AM EDT (Sun)
Jacksonville at New England Under (35.0, )
Time: 1:00 AM EDT (Sun)
Dallas (-1.0, ) at Washington
Time: 4:15 AM EDT (Sun)
Carolina at Arizona Under (38.5, )
Time: 4:15 AM EDT (Sun)
Green Bay (-5.0, ) at San Diego
Time: 4:15 AM EDT
Mark Franco...
Member Plays
Atlanta at Indianapolis Over
Time: 1:00 AM EDT
Pittsburgh at New York-A Over
Time: 1:00 AM EDT
Baltimore (-6, ) at Oakland
Time: 4:05 AM EDT
Phil Steele
Member Plays
Jacksonville at New England Under (36.5, )
Time: 1:00 AM EDT (Sun)
NORM HITZGUS...REC>>239-198. {COLL & PRO FOOTBALL}.
Double Plays.....
Jacksonville +7.5 vs New England
Cincinnati -3 vs San Francisco
St. Louis -7 vs Seattle
Baltimore -7 vs Oakland
Jacksonville/New England Under 35.5
Cincinnati -3 vs San Francisco
Atlanta +7½ at Indianapolis
Minnesota -3 at Chicago
Under 37 Houston at Tampa Bay
Under 38½ Buffalo at Tennessee
Baltimore -6½ at Oakland
New Orleans -7 vs NY Giants
Bengals - Seems there are two teams to always go against on the road this season, Arizona is one and Frisco is the other. San Fran yet to win SU on the road, 0-6 on the year away, 1-4-1 ATS. Carry Niners road woes a step further and look at non-division games away and see that they've lost big, by 38 at Baltimore, 10 at Green Bay and by 28 at Minnesota. San Fran on road in December in Cincinnati doesn't look good for Niners. SF 6-total wins on the season and four of those have been against bottom-feeders, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Chicago, teams that are a combined 17-35. Another win over a losing team, Tampa Bay and only win on the season over a team that has a winning record, St. Louis who is very mediocre away. Cincy with an overall winning record and 4-1 SU and ATS L5 games. Lost last game breaking a 4-game win streak but that was their third consecutive road game. Bengals off a big loss returning home for first time in 4-weeks and SF off a big win, west-coast warm weather team hitting the road to a cold-weather city, classic bounce situation. Thus far under first year HC-Lewis, Cincy 3-1 ATS in bounce games and have won L3 SU and ATS after a loss. Buy it down to 2½.
Falcons - Colts have beat only one team in L9 games by more than a touch and that was Houston. Colts defense started out strong but has fallen off significantly down the stretch, 27+ points allowed in 4 of L5 games. Indy 1-3 ATS L4 at home. Falcs with Vick back and playing in dome should get their points as well. Falcs despite a limited offense mostly without Vick has held 5 of L6 opp to 23 points or less and have allowed only an avg of 20.3-ppg L6 games. Indy off a tough stretch with L3 games decided by 4-points or less, have to question how much they have in the tank for this one off the big win at Tennessee (classic letdown situation) and had a tough game against Pats the week before that. Indy got win over Tenn only due to 4 TO's to none. Colts may be without two starters in defensive backfield, CB Nick Harper and FS Idrees Bashir will be game-time decisions. RB James carried 28-times against Titans top rated run defense and is reportedly tired. Over last six-games, James has faced four defenses ranked among the NFL's top seven against the run. Receiver Troy Walters (33 rec, 434 yds, 3-TD's) suffered a broken nose in last weeks game but will likely play. Seems Atlanta in better shape for this one and re-energized with return of Vick and with the sudden and unexpected firing of HC-Reeves, players should be giving their all in this one.
Vikings - Certainly don't think the Vikings are all that good and hate taking them as a road-division-fav, but spot looks too good to pass on despite Minn being a poor road team. Bears "officially" packing in the season in giving the start to rookie QB Rex Grossman. HC Dick Jauron really doesn't want to play him but is currently a lame-duck who will be terminated in the off-season. Grossman will be working behind a makeshift line with starting OL Gandy and Villarrial, listed as game-time-decisions, but both highly unlikely to play today. Vikes D thrives on pressure and leads the NFL with 25-Ints. Not a lot of Bears are going to be willing to put their bodies and careers on the line today with rumbling and dissension that they're no longer playing to win. Bears other goal is to get Anthony Thomas to 1,000 RY, he needs 257 over L3 games. Minny still playing to win division with one-game lead over the Pack and can ill afford to let this one slip by. With each teams priorities clear, have to go with Minny, will buy down to 2½.
Under Hou/TB - Game is OTB as many places, shops that have it at 37 as of this writing. Like the under 37, that's my limit on this one though wouldn't take it lower. Bucs big problem is that they haven't been able to score. Averaging less than 20-points a game on the season. have scored under 20 7 of L8 games. Houston offense down to rookie 3'rd string QB Ragone. They were shutout LW with him starting and managed only 124 total yards with more than 50 coming on QB scrambles. Bucs not a team to scramble on. Weather will not be good, thunderstorms likely, winds W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Bucs L4 games Under and Under 7 of L8. Texans Under 3 of L4 games.
Under Buff/Ten - Another game OTB as most spots, but like the under at 37 or better. Bills have had only one game all season go over the total and that was in week #2. Averaging less than 13-ppg over L8. Before putting up 24 at NYG, were held to single digits in prev 4-road games, 6, 5, 3 and 7. Titans rush defense should turn Bills one-dimensional and Bledsloe has been taking a beating when forced to pass. Titans's QB McNair questionable and less than 100% if he does go. Bills lone bright spot is their defense, have allowed only a combined 52-points in L5 games and L2 opp held to single digits.
Ravens - Oakland absolutely quit on HC Callahan going into LW's game at Pittsburgh. Callahan blasted them in the press and he has lost control of this team. Ravens fighting hard with one game lead over Cincy for Division lead. Raiders' defense has been decimated by injuries, placing five starters on injured reserve. Meanwhile offense down to 3'rd string QB Rick Mirer who is hobbled with an ankle injury. Ravens NFL injury report this week is exaggerated, key players are going to play. Raiders have scored no more than 8 points in L2 games and have been outscored by 49-15 L2. Overall Oakland ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in 20 of 38 major offensive and defensive categories. Ravens defense providing team with points and should have their way with Oakland offense. Meanwhile RB Jamal Lewis the league's leading rusher goes against the Raiders' run defense that ranks second to last in the league. Ravens should own the ball and the clock when they want. One team wants a win here and the other is waiting for the season to end. I don't think Raiders want any piece of the Ravens.
Saints - Giants play has been pathetic of late. In 3 of L5 games have been held to 7-total points, haven't topped 13 in L5 and avg only 8.8-ppg in that span. QB Kerry Collins, who had started 67 consecutive games, is out after sustaining a high ankle sprain last Sunday. Jesse Palmer gets first ever start in NFL on road in NO on Prime Time. Palmer has admitted to not getting much sleep this week due to excitement. Collins has not been the problem with Giants anemic scoring. Palmer will also be likely without WR Ike Hilliard (knee) and TE Jeremy Shockey (knee). Coming into the season, Palmer had attempted just four NFL passes, completing three for 30 yards. Overall Palmer has completed 9 of 15 passes for 92 yards and has been sacked 6-times in that limited activity. Giants' offensive front includes one rookie, one first-year player and two second-year players. Saints should bring pressure from all directions. Overall only 4-original starters are starting on offense today. Giants a minus-9 in TO margin L5 games, should go up today. Another lame-duck HC-Fassell has stated Palmer has looked rusty in practice but will be given a fair chance before going to veteran Jason Garret. Doesn't sound too optimistic. Giants D has allowed over 300 RY L2 weeks. Prior to TB game LW Saints were avg near 200 RY a game prev 3-games.
DR. BOB....
NFL Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
CHICAGO (+3.0) 23 Minnesota 17
14-Dec-03 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Rex Grossman gets his first career action at quarterback for the Bears and he’ll have the good fortune of facing a bad
Vikings’ defense (5.9 yards per play allowed to teams that average a combined 5.1 yppl on offense for the season) that has given up an alarming 7.5 yppl in their last 4 road games (to teams that average just 5.0 yppl on offense). I’ve gone against the Vikings for Best Bet winners the last two times they were a road favorite, a 28-42 loss at San Diego and an 18-28 loss at Oakland, and I have no problem backing the Bears on their home field today, even with a rookie quarterback. Chicago’s Anthony Thomas (4.2 ypr) should have good success running the football against a soft Minnesota defensive front that’s surrendered 5.0 ypr this season (to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense) and Grossman can’t be too much worse throwing the football than Kordell Stewart has been (4.5 yards per pass play). Chicago’s offense will miss Stewart’s running (288 yards at 5.0 ypr), but my math model still forecasts 20 points for Chicago after taking out Stewart’s running numbers and subtracting 0.4 yards per pass play from Chicago’s season average (just in case Grossman is worse). If I used Minnesota’s defensive numbers in their road games only, then the projection would be for 27.5 points for the Bears with Grossman at quarterback and I expect Chicago to score somewhere in between those numbers. Minnesota’s offense is very good (6.0 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense), but Chicago is a solid defensive team (4.9 yppl against teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense) that’s played even better recently (4.5 yppl allowed in their last 7 games). Overall my math model favors Minnesota by 1 ½ points after adjusting for Grossman at quarterback, but the math projection using only Chicago’s home games and Minnesota’s road games would be the Bears by 11 points, as Chicago has played very well at home this year (5 straight home spread wins) while Minnesota has been horrible on the road. The winter conditions aren’t likely to help Minnesota’s offense in this game and the Vikings also apply to a negative 55-142-3 ATS road favorite situation while Chicago applies to a 210-119-9 ATS statistical profile indicator, which suggests that they have the statistical characteristics of a team that should play better at home (which they obviously do). The Vikings, meanwhile, apply in a negative 77-140-13 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that they are the type of team that shouldn’t be trusted laying points on the road – a point that they’ve certainly proven. The Vikings are now 9-24-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or more and they are only decent in that role if they are playing well (8-8-1 ATS after consecutive wins, but 1-16- 1 ATS if not on a 2 game or more win streak). This game has all the makings of a solid 3-Star Best Bet, but I’ll only play Chicago for 3-Stars if they’re getting 3 points or more due to the uncertainty of having a rookie at quarterback in his first start (although there is a good chance he will be better throwing the ball than Stewart has been).
Downgrade Chicago to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of less than 3 points.
3 Star Selection
Seattle (+7) 26 ST. LOUIS 23
14-Dec-03 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I realize that St. Louis is much better at home than they are on the road (5-0-1 ATS at home this year) and that the Seahawks are just 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season, but the Rams are a grossly overrated team and last week’s fluky 26-20 win at Cleveland is not going to dissuade me from that belief (the Rams were out-played 4.7 yards per play to 5.6 yppl from the line of scrimmage in that game). The Rams offense is not nearly as good as people think, as that unit has averaged a modest 5.3 yards per play this season (against teams that combine to allow 5.1 yppl on defense) and they’ve only averaged 5.0 yppl in 5 games since a healthy Marshall Faulk returned to the lineup (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense). Seattle’s defense is just average, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense, so the Rams have just a 0.2 yppl advantage with their offense against the Seahawks’ defense. Seattle has a bigger advantage when they have the ball, as their attack has averaged 5.5 yppl (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense) while the Rams have given up 5.2 yppl on defense (to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense). So, Seattle is actually better than the Rams on both sides of the ball and they are much better on special teams (2 ½ points better, actually). So, why is it that the Rams are favored by 7 points in this game? My math model picks this game even and the math prediction was just Rams by 3 points if I only used their home games against the Seahawks’ road games. What makes this a Best Bet on the Seahawks is an incredible 57-12-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that applies to Seattle in this game and has been a consistent winner for me all season (Denver last week over KC). The one loss that angle has suffered was a game here in St. Louis, as the Ravens failed to cover as a 7 point underdog despite a 267 yards to 121 yard edge, as 7 turnovers led to a 22-33 loss. The fact that Baltimore turned the ball over 7 times and still almost covered the spread is a testament to how strong that indicator is. Despite Seattle’s road woes this year, they are still 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road underdog of 3 points or more and they’ve only lost 2 of their 6 road games by more than 7 points. The Seahawks’ 7-34 loss at Minnesota last week should also work in our favor, as Seattle hasn’t lost consecutive games all season, bouncing back each time with a victory. At worst, using the home-road math prediction, Seattle should be only a 3 point dog in this game, so we have some line value to go along with that 57-12-4 ATS indicator that is worth 7 ½ points. I’ll call for the Seahawks to win straight up and sweep the Rams.
2 Star Selection
ARIZONA (+6.5) 21 Carolina 19
14-Dec-03 01:15 PM Pacific Time
The Cardinals were destroyed 14-50 in San Francisco last week, continuing their trend of negative road performances. However, Arizona has been very good to me at home this year, as I’ve logged Best Bet winners in the Cards’ last 3 home games against St. Louis, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. Arizona also beat Green Bay on this field earlier this season and out-played Baltimore from the line of scrimmage (5.5 yards per play to 5.0 yppl) in an 8 point loss that was the result of a -3 in turnover margin. The Cardinals are once again in a good situation at home, as they face a struggling Panthers squad that qualifies in a negative 15-46-1 ATS statistical profile indicator that applies to road favorites of more than 3 points with statistical characteristics similar to the Panthers. Carolina lost at Atlanta last week and at Houston as a 6 ½ point favorite earlier this season, so it appears as if they are indeed the type of team that is not well suited for laying points on the road. Arizona, meanwhile, applies to a solid 213-127-13 ATS contrary situation and teams with a win percentage of .250 or worse that have lost 5 or more consecutive games are 83-37-2 ATS as an underdog or pick in their next game. Four of those 5 losses were on the road and Arizona took the Rams to overtime as a 7 ½ point underdog in their only home game during their 5 game slide. So, there is nothing to suggest that the Cardinals will play as poorly this week as they have on the road the past month. My only concern is the insertion of young Josh McCown into the starting lineup at quarterback for Arizona. Former starter Jeff Blake really hasn’t done a poor job of throwing the football, as he averaged 5.5 yards per pass play against a schedule of mostly good defensive teams that combined to allow only 5.6 yppp on defense. McCown has had extended action in two games this season and he’s averaged just 4.5 yppp in 72 pass plays (against teams that allow 5.6 yppp). McCown will probably perform a bit better after working with the first team offense in practice this week, but he’s not likely to perform as well as Blake has. Overall, Arizona has averaged 4.7 yards per play this season (against teams that allow 5.0 yppl), but they’ve been average offensively at home (5.0 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl) and they should move the ball at a decent clip against a mediocre Carolina defense (5.0 yppl against teams that average 5.1 yppl). The Panthers’ offense is a bit better than average (5.3 yppl with Delhomme at quarterback, against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl) and you’d expect them to move the ball pretty well against a sub-par Cardinals’ defense that’s surrendered 5.5 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense. However, Arizona’s defense has played pretty well at home (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense) and the Panthers have struggled offensively on the road (4.9 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl). After adjusting for McCown at quarterback, my math model favors Carolina by 7 ½ points. However, the math model using Carolina’s road games and Arizona’s home games favors the Panthers by just 2 points and the situations favoring Arizona are worth 5 points. I’ll go with Arizona again and hope the result is the same as the last 3 times I used them on their home field.
3 Star Selection
SAN DIEGO (+5.0) 28 Green Bay 21
14-Dec-03 01:15 PM Pacific Time
I’ve been on the underrated Chargers 4 times in the last 5 weeks and won with them 3 times. This looks like another good opportunity to back the Chargers, who are good offensively with Doug Flutie at quarterback (5.9 yppl in his 5 starts against teams that combine to allow 5.4 yppl on defense) and improved defensively since their week 6 bye week. The Chargers have allowed only 5.0 yppl in their last 8 games, to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense, and they certainly capable of slowing down a good Packers’ offense that’s averaged 5.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense). Green Bay’s offense has the advantage in that match-up, but the Chargers’ offense has an equal advantage over a mediocre Packers’ defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense). Overall, my math model favors the Chargers by 2 ½ points in this game with Flutie at quarterback, so there is plenty of line value in favor of our play. There are also plenty of technical factors favoring the Chargers in this game, as they qualify in a very strong 43-9 ATS home underdog momentum situation and a 210-119-9 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on home dogs (or small home favorites) with statistical characteristics similar to the Chargers. Green Bay, meanwhile, is just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite of more than 3 points, including straight up losses at Arizona and at Detroit this season. The Packers also apply in a negative 47-94-4 ATS road favorite situation and a 38-77-3 ATS road letdown situation that plays against teams coming off a high scoring home win. It all adds up to another solid Best Bet on the Chargers.
3 Star Selection
MIAMI (-2.0) 24 Philadelphia 13
15-Dec-03 06:00 PM Pacific Time
The Eagles have won and covered 8 straight games and I admit that they are a good team, as they are now better than average on offense (5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense), on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.0 yppl), and on special teams (0.5 points better than average). I actually rate Philly’s defense as 0.2 yppl better than their season averages because they’re finally fully healthy in the secondary and have allowed just 5.1 yards per pass play (against teams that average a combined 5.9 yppp on offense) in 5 games in which either CB Bobby Taylor or S Brian Dawkins have played (they both played opening day and in the last two games and each played without the other in one game). The Dolphins’ pass attack is better than average with Jay Fiedler at quarterback (he’s averaged 6.0 yppp this season against teams that allow a combined 5.7 yppp on defense) and Ricky Williams ought to have a pretty good night running the football against a soft Eagles’ defensive front that’s allowed 4.3 ypr this season (to teams that average a combined 4.1 ypr on offense). Philadelphia’s offense will be up against a superior Dolphins’ defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense). Overall, my math model favors the Dolphins by 1 point in this game, so the line is about right. However, the situation strongly favors Miami. The Eagles are in a number of negative situations, including a 22-69-1 ATS situation that went against Cincinnati last week. Philly qualifies in a 4-29-1 ATS subset of that angle and they also apply to a negative 68-135-5 ATS scheduling situation. Miami, meanwhile, applies in a solid 210-119-9 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Dolphins have been a good bet at home under coach Wannstadt, going 14-5 ATS in home games when not favored by 5 points or more. The Eagles have finally made a believer out of me, but the situation is strongly against them this week and the Dolphins are good enough to take advantage.
Animal...
4* Jacksonville
3* Dallas
BIG AL'S REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
NCAA
900 LINE KENT ST
NBA
5* PHOENIX
ONE-AND-ONLY 15* GAME OF THE YEAR St. Louis-Seattle
DAYTON SERVICE....
They're backing St. Louis to avenge a 24-23 loss at Seatlte in week 3, a game in which today's host coughed up a 23-10 fourth-quarter lead. They point out St. Louis is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of 16.8 points a game. On the other hand, they note Seattle has dropped five in a row on the road, both SU and ATS, and was crushed 34-7 at Minnesota a week ago.
Michael Nance Guaranteed Selections....
Michael Nance could of been a Solid Gold Dancer his picks are so SOLID! He is 8-1 in his NFL 10 STAR PICKS! Last week he gave Baltimore and they rolled over Cincy. Put on your gold spandex pants and get rich with Michael Nance's 10 STAR NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!
10* Minnesota -1.5
Sports Gambling Hotline...
NATION'S #1 FOOTBALL SERVICE
COLUMBUS, OHIO SERVICE
Their 5* Double-Digit Oddsmakers Error Game of the Year play is on Dallas to continue its mastery of Washington (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS series' runs; 5 straight in D.C.) and snap a three-game road losing streak in the process.
They note the Pokes' defense held Washington, with Patrick Ramsey at quarterback, to 213 total yards in week's nine's 21-14 victory. And the Dallas offense got a big game from Troy Hambrick (100 yards rushing, 2 TDs) against a porous Washington defense. They feel the same ingredients will be successful in today's rematch.
They also noted that you're getting tremendous line value, pointing out Dallas would have easily been at least a 4-point favorite if this contest had been played three weeks ago.
HIGHEST-RATED PLAY OF THE YEAR San Fran-Cincinnati
JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI SERVICE
Their first 6* play of the season is on San Francisco to win outright as the road dog at Cincinnati. They feel San Fran, a miserable road team over the past two seasons, arrives in Cincinnati with its offense in peak form after Jeff Garcia and Kevan Barlow had monster games in last Sunday's home rout of Arizona. And they feel San Fran is catching Cincy off a deflating defeat at Baltimore in which they were dominated in every facet of the game.
NATION'S #1 TOTALS SERVICE
LOUISVILLE SERVICE
Their Total of the Week is for New England-Jacksonville to stay under with a projected points to be scored of just 17.
They also have a top-rated 5* total on Baltimore-Oakland over with a projected points to be scored of 43.
Their final 5* play is on Carolina-Arizona to stay under with a projected points to be scored of 31.
Their last play is a 3* release on San Fran-Cincy to go over with a projected points to be scored of 47.
Andy Iskoe.....
Member Plays
Seattle at St. Louis Over (51.0, )
Time: 1:00 AM EDT (Sun)
Jacksonville (+7.0, ) at New England
Time: 1:00 AM EDT (Sun)
Jacksonville at New England Under (35.0, )
Time: 1:00 AM EDT (Sun)
Dallas (-1.0, ) at Washington
Time: 4:15 AM EDT (Sun)
Carolina at Arizona Under (38.5, )
Time: 4:15 AM EDT (Sun)
Green Bay (-5.0, ) at San Diego
Time: 4:15 AM EDT
Mark Franco...
Member Plays
Atlanta at Indianapolis Over
Time: 1:00 AM EDT
Pittsburgh at New York-A Over
Time: 1:00 AM EDT
Baltimore (-6, ) at Oakland
Time: 4:05 AM EDT
Phil Steele
Member Plays
Jacksonville at New England Under (36.5, )
Time: 1:00 AM EDT (Sun)
NORM HITZGUS...REC>>239-198. {COLL & PRO FOOTBALL}.
Double Plays.....
Jacksonville +7.5 vs New England
Cincinnati -3 vs San Francisco
St. Louis -7 vs Seattle
Baltimore -7 vs Oakland
Jacksonville/New England Under 35.5
I found this interesting..This particular sportswriter is 81-117-10 (41% ytd)
on his picks. His Best Bets are 10-32 (24%) ytd here are todays plays. FADE THE PLAYS LISTED BELOW!
NEW ORLEANS (BEST BET)
DALLAS (BEST BET)
KANSAS CITY (BEST BET)
PITTSBURGH
NEW ENGLAND
CINCY
INDY
CHIC
TAMPA
BUFFALO
ST. LOUIS
DENVER
BALT
CAROLINA
GREEN BAY
DAWG
on his picks. His Best Bets are 10-32 (24%) ytd here are todays plays. FADE THE PLAYS LISTED BELOW!
NEW ORLEANS (BEST BET)
DALLAS (BEST BET)
KANSAS CITY (BEST BET)
PITTSBURGH
NEW ENGLAND
CINCY
INDY
CHIC
TAMPA
BUFFALO
ST. LOUIS
DENVER
BALT
CAROLINA
GREEN BAY
DAWG
Not sure you'll like it, but here's one OC for now........Should be coming shortly....
O.C DOOLEY.....
San Diego Chargers +3 -110
PERCENTAGE UNDERDOG PLAY/SEASON: You will find many handicappers that are going to jump on the Lions bandwagon, following that inspired effort at home against the Packers on Thanksgiving Day. Of course, I personally had a 5-UNIT move on the Lions, who actually have a winning record at home. However, may I warn all of you that the Lions are a horrible 1-8 SU off a win in their last 9 trys, so they do NOT handle rare prosperity very well. Of course, Detroit has only 10 wins in the past 3+ years combined. The main reason why I am going with the woeful Chargers this afternoon is three fold. Courtesy of one of my contacts, I have found out that there is an outside shot that Drew Brees WILL see action at some point today, after being benched about one month ago in favor of Doug Flutie. I have found out that Brees is “chomping at the bit” to play again, and has received personal encouragement from several NFL quarterbacks that temporarily lost their starting positions, only to rally and gain their jobs back. One of the quarterbacks who recently contacted Brees was Cincinnati’s Jon Kitna, who not so long ago was given up for dead on the Seattle bench. Another reason why I am siding with the Chargers is that head coach Marty Schottenheimer is actually facing his BROTHER today, as Kurt Schottenheimer is the Lions’ defensive coordinator. Both brothers are extremely competitive. The final reason why I am siding with San Diego has to do with the fact that the Chargers are actually looking forward to playing on the ROAD, as they are getting away from the fans who are preoccupied with them possibly leaving town, as the team recently filed suit to renegotiate their Qualcomm Stadium lease. Of course, the Chargers are not happy that baseball’s Padres are entering a new facility this coming season, as they feel left out in the dark. Getting away from the controversy is a GOOD thing. Here is a 68-PERCENT SYSTEM from my database (35-16): play ON all teams with a “pick em” price of +3 to -3 after losing 3 of their prior 4 games. This system kicks in if that squad has a losing record in the SECOND HALF of the season. This might shock some of you, but Detroit is a negative 2-8 ATS since 1992 versus bad defenses that allow at least 27 points per game. Now, the reason why this is the “Percentage Underdog Play/Season. SAN DIEGO IS 13-2 ATS SINCE 1992 versus poor offensive teams that average 285-or-LESS yards per game. I personally cashed with the Chargers last week against the Chiefs, and I am on them again today in a game that they have a good shot at winning considering the price.
O.C DOOLEY.....
San Diego Chargers +3 -110
PERCENTAGE UNDERDOG PLAY/SEASON: You will find many handicappers that are going to jump on the Lions bandwagon, following that inspired effort at home against the Packers on Thanksgiving Day. Of course, I personally had a 5-UNIT move on the Lions, who actually have a winning record at home. However, may I warn all of you that the Lions are a horrible 1-8 SU off a win in their last 9 trys, so they do NOT handle rare prosperity very well. Of course, Detroit has only 10 wins in the past 3+ years combined. The main reason why I am going with the woeful Chargers this afternoon is three fold. Courtesy of one of my contacts, I have found out that there is an outside shot that Drew Brees WILL see action at some point today, after being benched about one month ago in favor of Doug Flutie. I have found out that Brees is “chomping at the bit” to play again, and has received personal encouragement from several NFL quarterbacks that temporarily lost their starting positions, only to rally and gain their jobs back. One of the quarterbacks who recently contacted Brees was Cincinnati’s Jon Kitna, who not so long ago was given up for dead on the Seattle bench. Another reason why I am siding with the Chargers is that head coach Marty Schottenheimer is actually facing his BROTHER today, as Kurt Schottenheimer is the Lions’ defensive coordinator. Both brothers are extremely competitive. The final reason why I am siding with San Diego has to do with the fact that the Chargers are actually looking forward to playing on the ROAD, as they are getting away from the fans who are preoccupied with them possibly leaving town, as the team recently filed suit to renegotiate their Qualcomm Stadium lease. Of course, the Chargers are not happy that baseball’s Padres are entering a new facility this coming season, as they feel left out in the dark. Getting away from the controversy is a GOOD thing. Here is a 68-PERCENT SYSTEM from my database (35-16): play ON all teams with a “pick em” price of +3 to -3 after losing 3 of their prior 4 games. This system kicks in if that squad has a losing record in the SECOND HALF of the season. This might shock some of you, but Detroit is a negative 2-8 ATS since 1992 versus bad defenses that allow at least 27 points per game. Now, the reason why this is the “Percentage Underdog Play/Season. SAN DIEGO IS 13-2 ATS SINCE 1992 versus poor offensive teams that average 285-or-LESS yards per game. I personally cashed with the Chargers last week against the Chiefs, and I am on them again today in a game that they have a good shot at winning considering the price.
