Cheers,
30.10. Atalanta - Genoa FT draw @ odds 3.25 and above, stakes 4/10
I am going boldly for the draw here. Atalanta continue to fly high and Sunday at noon will host one of its classic rivals and former team of their current coach – Gasperini, where he had some great years. This one should be tight – both teams are in good shape and good mood, no major worries with injuries and suspensions for both managers. Atalanta are aggressive at home but this time they face the best defense in Serie A and the Redblues from Genova know how to defend with aggression and order as well. Given the intensity of the week, Atalanta are coming from two good wins in the span of 6 days, while Genoa lost frenetic city derby and then returned with style and defeated AC Milan, but spent too much energy, which was evident at the end of that game. Imo the guests will be slightly more exhausted from the last two games and they will be happy to hold on to the draw here, may be trying to slow down the tempo at moments, while I expect Atalanta to be a little more persuasive looking for the win. However Genoa have the resources to handle the pressure and stand their ground. I think both teams will play with a small thought that a draw wouldn’t hurt them in this moment of their season. Another curious fact – historically since both teams have played each other in Serie A this century there was never more than 1 consequtive season without a draw between them. So after a season without draw they always have drawn at least one game in the next season. And they failed to draw last season 2015/2016 exchanging away wins between them…GL!
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season 2016/2017, 140% ROI on
30.10. Atalanta - Genoa FT draw @ odds 3.25 and above, stakes 4/10
I am going boldly for the draw here. Atalanta continue to fly high and Sunday at noon will host one of its classic rivals and former team of their current coach – Gasperini, where he had some great years. This one should be tight – both teams are in good shape and good mood, no major worries with injuries and suspensions for both managers. Atalanta are aggressive at home but this time they face the best defense in Serie A and the Redblues from Genova know how to defend with aggression and order as well. Given the intensity of the week, Atalanta are coming from two good wins in the span of 6 days, while Genoa lost frenetic city derby and then returned with style and defeated AC Milan, but spent too much energy, which was evident at the end of that game. Imo the guests will be slightly more exhausted from the last two games and they will be happy to hold on to the draw here, may be trying to slow down the tempo at moments, while I expect Atalanta to be a little more persuasive looking for the win. However Genoa have the resources to handle the pressure and stand their ground. I think both teams will play with a small thought that a draw wouldn’t hurt them in this moment of their season. Another curious fact – historically since both teams have played each other in Serie A this century there was never more than 1 consequtive season without a draw between them. So after a season without draw they always have drawn at least one game in the next season. And they failed to draw last season 2015/2016 exchanging away wins between them…GL!
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season 2016/2017, 140% ROI on
serie A profi tips
29.10 Juventus – Napoli, both to score, @ odds 1.95 and > above: 7/10
Odds were higher than expected because bookies take into consideration that Napoli will miss both their centre-forwards. However imo this is a real problem only when Napoli play against defensive teams which play with many players behind the ball and need to put somebody tall and strong in the box to keep the pressure on. Against teams like Juventus which want to make the game by their own this actually could be not so bad, as Napoli will profit from the pace and moves from deep of its false No 9 Mertens supported by equally technical and pacey Insigne and Callejon. Plus Hamsik was rested in midweek and he will also give a lot of dynamics to what I expect to be wait and break-out tactics from the guests. Juventus won big in midweek but the score might be misleading. In fact they were dominant for the first 30 min and then the game was balanced, but they took advantage of the mistakes by the opposition. Juventus have important game in next week in CL, so may be their key figure in midfield Marchisio will be rested as he was out for 6 months and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] start in 72 hours might be a risk they won’t take after his long time out because of knee-injury. This means that either Lamina or Hernanes will start which is a significant downgrade in midfield which I expect Napoli to take advantage of. Defense of Juventus was their main weapon, but it doesn’t seem to function so well this season. In fact I think their defensive trio will have problems with Napoli’s fast players coming from deep, if they are not covered well by Juventus midfield and considering probable line-up I don’t think Juventus midfield could contain Napoli for 90 min. On the other hand Napoli is prone to defensive blunders this season and with the constant pressure of two typical “heavy” strikers with which Juventus will play I don’t see them keeping clean sheet as well. But the key here is I rate Napoli’s chances to score way better than bookies initial lines. I expect odds to drop a bit especially when Juventus line up becomes more certain and the miss of Marchisio is confirmed – which Allegri implied just few hours ago on pre-match press conference.GL!
30.10. Crotone – Chievo away win, with odds @ 2.25 and above, stake 7/10
Odds already started to decline being above 2.3 just hours ago, so I suggest taking them. Crotone got extremely lucky in midweek round favored by the weather and long interruption of the game in the first half. They scored after hilarious mistake by Viola 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] keeper and defended for their lives till the last minutes of the game. However there will be no rain on Sunday and there will be hungry Chievo team without a win for almost a month, which plays very good football and got quite unlucky in their recent games. The Flying Donkeys from Verona were superior to their opponents in the last 2 games but only bad lack deprive them from taking 3 pts. This could not last forever though as they are in good condition playing dominant football, don’t have missing players and did manage to make some turnover in the midweek round. There is a class difference here given the names in both teams (especially in midfield and attack) which goes well beyond the odds given for away win. I am confident on away win and will not take hc as if things go wrong here it will be only because of something extraordinary – penalty, red card which we cannot predict how will effect the final result. So full trust in Chievo.GL!
30.10 Crotone – Chievo, Chievo to win to nil, with odds @ 3.40, stake 2-3/10
As explained above I am confident of Chievo dominating this game and wining. They are solid team all around, don’t allow cheap goals and remain focused for the full 90 min. I am taking this bet not by chance. Miraculously Crotone have scored in each of their last 5 games having one of the worst offensive lines in the Serie A with only 8 goals scored so far. Curiously enough if they score against Chievo it will be their 6[SUP]th[/SUP] consequtive game in which they score, putting them together with a very few teams which have managed that in their last 6 games – and that are unsurprisingly teams with the best attacking force in Serie A – Lazio, Roma, Torino, even Napoli haven’t managed yet to score in 6 league games in row!!! Obviously Crotone doesn’t belong here with the best attacking teams and I believe this bet must be tried again even if we have failed (unluckily- just find the highlights and see Crotone goal against Viola) in the last such pick against them – time to return what we lost with them!GL!
30.10 Lazio – Sassuolo over 2.75 with odds around 1.95, but above 1.9 stake: 6/10
Well, bookies moved swiftly here and odds were cut down shortly after midweek round. I had long consideration about this bet, but still decided to go ahead. Lazio offensive is clicking like Swiss clock atm and especially at Olimpico in Rome there is no stopping them. As I mentioned before they are clearly on uptrend in form and will try to win this game as well. However Skyblues are still missing important figures in defense, including their key holding midfielder Biglia and this was clearly visible by the goals they conceded in their last three games – particularly the way these goals were scored. Fortunately for them Sassuolo are struggling with injuries too which forced their coach, Di Francesco even to change the tactics in the last game but it didn’t help much. The number of chances that Sassuolo conceded against Roma (and in the last 3-4 games) at home should be a worry and for this game at Olimpico they will miss key defender like Cannavaro, which complicates the situation even more. Whatever tactics Di Francesco choses, Sassuolo cannot leave Olimpico with a clean sheet and I expect them to concede no less than 2 goals. I guess Di Francesco knows this as well as I do and he is not the type of coach who will play defensively, so my genuine guess is that he will try to exploit Lazio defensive weaknesses on his own, rather than focusing on stopping their formidable offense, which frankly is not possible. This is a 2 goal minimum game the way I see it and there’s even a chance that Lazio could cover the line by themselves, so GL!
29.10 Juventus – Napoli, both to score, @ odds 1.95 and > above: 7/10
Odds were higher than expected because bookies take into consideration that Napoli will miss both their centre-forwards. However imo this is a real problem only when Napoli play against defensive teams which play with many players behind the ball and need to put somebody tall and strong in the box to keep the pressure on. Against teams like Juventus which want to make the game by their own this actually could be not so bad, as Napoli will profit from the pace and moves from deep of its false No 9 Mertens supported by equally technical and pacey Insigne and Callejon. Plus Hamsik was rested in midweek and he will also give a lot of dynamics to what I expect to be wait and break-out tactics from the guests. Juventus won big in midweek but the score might be misleading. In fact they were dominant for the first 30 min and then the game was balanced, but they took advantage of the mistakes by the opposition. Juventus have important game in next week in CL, so may be their key figure in midfield Marchisio will be rested as he was out for 6 months and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] start in 72 hours might be a risk they won’t take after his long time out because of knee-injury. This means that either Lamina or Hernanes will start which is a significant downgrade in midfield which I expect Napoli to take advantage of. Defense of Juventus was their main weapon, but it doesn’t seem to function so well this season. In fact I think their defensive trio will have problems with Napoli’s fast players coming from deep, if they are not covered well by Juventus midfield and considering probable line-up I don’t think Juventus midfield could contain Napoli for 90 min. On the other hand Napoli is prone to defensive blunders this season and with the constant pressure of two typical “heavy” strikers with which Juventus will play I don’t see them keeping clean sheet as well. But the key here is I rate Napoli’s chances to score way better than bookies initial lines. I expect odds to drop a bit especially when Juventus line up becomes more certain and the miss of Marchisio is confirmed – which Allegri implied just few hours ago on pre-match press conference.GL!
30.10. Crotone – Chievo away win, with odds @ 2.25 and above, stake 7/10
Odds already started to decline being above 2.3 just hours ago, so I suggest taking them. Crotone got extremely lucky in midweek round favored by the weather and long interruption of the game in the first half. They scored after hilarious mistake by Viola 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] keeper and defended for their lives till the last minutes of the game. However there will be no rain on Sunday and there will be hungry Chievo team without a win for almost a month, which plays very good football and got quite unlucky in their recent games. The Flying Donkeys from Verona were superior to their opponents in the last 2 games but only bad lack deprive them from taking 3 pts. This could not last forever though as they are in good condition playing dominant football, don’t have missing players and did manage to make some turnover in the midweek round. There is a class difference here given the names in both teams (especially in midfield and attack) which goes well beyond the odds given for away win. I am confident on away win and will not take hc as if things go wrong here it will be only because of something extraordinary – penalty, red card which we cannot predict how will effect the final result. So full trust in Chievo.GL!
30.10 Crotone – Chievo, Chievo to win to nil, with odds @ 3.40, stake 2-3/10
As explained above I am confident of Chievo dominating this game and wining. They are solid team all around, don’t allow cheap goals and remain focused for the full 90 min. I am taking this bet not by chance. Miraculously Crotone have scored in each of their last 5 games having one of the worst offensive lines in the Serie A with only 8 goals scored so far. Curiously enough if they score against Chievo it will be their 6[SUP]th[/SUP] consequtive game in which they score, putting them together with a very few teams which have managed that in their last 6 games – and that are unsurprisingly teams with the best attacking force in Serie A – Lazio, Roma, Torino, even Napoli haven’t managed yet to score in 6 league games in row!!! Obviously Crotone doesn’t belong here with the best attacking teams and I believe this bet must be tried again even if we have failed (unluckily- just find the highlights and see Crotone goal against Viola) in the last such pick against them – time to return what we lost with them!GL!
30.10 Lazio – Sassuolo over 2.75 with odds around 1.95, but above 1.9 stake: 6/10
Well, bookies moved swiftly here and odds were cut down shortly after midweek round. I had long consideration about this bet, but still decided to go ahead. Lazio offensive is clicking like Swiss clock atm and especially at Olimpico in Rome there is no stopping them. As I mentioned before they are clearly on uptrend in form and will try to win this game as well. However Skyblues are still missing important figures in defense, including their key holding midfielder Biglia and this was clearly visible by the goals they conceded in their last three games – particularly the way these goals were scored. Fortunately for them Sassuolo are struggling with injuries too which forced their coach, Di Francesco even to change the tactics in the last game but it didn’t help much. The number of chances that Sassuolo conceded against Roma (and in the last 3-4 games) at home should be a worry and for this game at Olimpico they will miss key defender like Cannavaro, which complicates the situation even more. Whatever tactics Di Francesco choses, Sassuolo cannot leave Olimpico with a clean sheet and I expect them to concede no less than 2 goals. I guess Di Francesco knows this as well as I do and he is not the type of coach who will play defensively, so my genuine guess is that he will try to exploit Lazio defensive weaknesses on his own, rather than focusing on stopping their formidable offense, which frankly is not possible. This is a 2 goal minimum game the way I see it and there’s even a chance that Lazio could cover the line by themselves, so GL!
serie A profi tips
30.10. Atalanta - Genoa FT draw @ odds 3.25 and above, stakes 4/10
29.10 Juventus – Napoli, both to score, @ odds 1.95 and > above: 7/10
30.10. Crotone – Chievo away win, with odds @ 2.25 and above, stake 7/1030.10 Crotone – Chievo, Chievo to win to nil, with odds @ 3.40, stake 2-3/10
30.10 Lazio – Sassuolo over 2.75 with odds around 1.95, but above 1.9 stake: 6/10
Well some setback for my first picks here but overall stats for 2016/2017 season remains very positive even if mods edit my posts so I cannot verify it with a link
31.10. 21:00 CET Cagliari-Palermo, both to score @ odds around 1.7 and above, stake: 6/10
Classic rivalry between the main teams from the two biggest Italian isles – Sicily and Sardinia. The home team is under fire after their performance in the last two games in which they conceded 9 goals in total – perhaps a bit harsh, but numbers don’t lie and Cagliari hold the worst defensive record in Serie A and the way the allow easy goals against almost any team just confirms it. Even their traditionally strong home ground of Sant’Elia is not helping them much this season, as they have the second worst home defensive record, after their present opponents – Palermo. Their new signing in defense Bruno Alves has problems adapting to Serie A, but still looks one of the best compared to the rest of the defense, consisted mostly by much younger players who doesn’t seem to do so well either, judging by their average votes after 10 rounds. Upfront of course, things look completely different – with their offensive play Cagliari have scored at least two goals in each of their home games so far. They don’t have issues with missing players so I expect them to score for sure against Palermo who have conceded goals in all, but one of their 5 away games. Frankly speaking judging by the overall performance IMO these are the two teams with the worst defensive lines in Serie A. Clouds are gathering over Palermo’s coach De Zerbi and if they don’t take some pts tonight his days look numbered. And this is kind of game where Palermo would fancy their chances and fight on a level ground with the bells on. They have shown surprisingly effective tactics away from home this season and may be they feel more comfortable entering as underdogs and leaving the home team to build the game, while waiting to hit on the break. So this is exactly the game they like, as Cagliari often go forward with numbers and leave spaces behind. Away team will have in disposition their main weapons in attack - Nesterovski and Diamanti who are probably the two most valuable players in their squad and in a game like this I would rate their chances to score as very likely as well. GL!
30.10. Atalanta - Genoa FT draw @ odds 3.25 and above, stakes 4/10
29.10 Juventus – Napoli, both to score, @ odds 1.95 and > above: 7/10
30.10. Crotone – Chievo away win, with odds @ 2.25 and above, stake 7/1030.10 Crotone – Chievo, Chievo to win to nil, with odds @ 3.40, stake 2-3/10
30.10 Lazio – Sassuolo over 2.75 with odds around 1.95, but above 1.9 stake: 6/10
Well some setback for my first picks here but overall stats for 2016/2017 season remains very positive even if mods edit my posts so I cannot verify it with a link
31.10. 21:00 CET Cagliari-Palermo, both to score @ odds around 1.7 and above, stake: 6/10
Classic rivalry between the main teams from the two biggest Italian isles – Sicily and Sardinia. The home team is under fire after their performance in the last two games in which they conceded 9 goals in total – perhaps a bit harsh, but numbers don’t lie and Cagliari hold the worst defensive record in Serie A and the way the allow easy goals against almost any team just confirms it. Even their traditionally strong home ground of Sant’Elia is not helping them much this season, as they have the second worst home defensive record, after their present opponents – Palermo. Their new signing in defense Bruno Alves has problems adapting to Serie A, but still looks one of the best compared to the rest of the defense, consisted mostly by much younger players who doesn’t seem to do so well either, judging by their average votes after 10 rounds. Upfront of course, things look completely different – with their offensive play Cagliari have scored at least two goals in each of their home games so far. They don’t have issues with missing players so I expect them to score for sure against Palermo who have conceded goals in all, but one of their 5 away games. Frankly speaking judging by the overall performance IMO these are the two teams with the worst defensive lines in Serie A. Clouds are gathering over Palermo’s coach De Zerbi and if they don’t take some pts tonight his days look numbered. And this is kind of game where Palermo would fancy their chances and fight on a level ground with the bells on. They have shown surprisingly effective tactics away from home this season and may be they feel more comfortable entering as underdogs and leaving the home team to build the game, while waiting to hit on the break. So this is exactly the game they like, as Cagliari often go forward with numbers and leave spaces behind. Away team will have in disposition their main weapons in attack - Nesterovski and Diamanti who are probably the two most valuable players in their squad and in a game like this I would rate their chances to score as very likely as well. GL!
