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Stunning loss at home for Man. U today. Didn't get to see it, thanks to NBC's policy of only showing one game at the 7:00am time slot.

Is Moyes going to last the season?? I'm thinking he may not make it, if this keeps up. He handled the whole Rooney situation very poorly, and Wayne seems to be the only guy who can put the ball in the net.
 

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Not sure whose loss was worse today?...sick to even think both colors in Manchester might be on the outside of the top 4 come end of season

city will finish top 3 but united could easily be out of europe. i just can't say enough four letter words to describe david moyes. you will notice this was the first time in many years i didn't bet them at home after an away league loss...just don't trust him at all. that was the first home loss off a road loss in a decade. and west fucking brom?!?!

to make it even worse we are actually a point behind cardiff city after 6 matches. if that doesn't explain how dire this situation is then i don't know what will.
 

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Fri/Sat
-1.50 Vancouver
+0.96 SKC under
+2.61 CHI over

2-0-1 +2.07 (5.5)

YTD 291-24-209 +83.24 (654.11) ... 37-2-10 thread
 

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Thanks for the winners Roll. Gotta love those late goals in that Chicago game! Is your system strictly number crunching or do you mix in a little of your own gut/intuition as well?
 

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stats, number crunching, situation, missing players, and a bit of intuition (at least in mls and mexico).

probably get a better idea by reading my private forum preview of chicago/montreal, btw i don't consider those to be "late goals" in chicago...was one in the net in first half hour, another in second half hour, and two in final half hour with the bet a winner with still 17 minutes left.

Chicago Fire vs Montreal Impact

- teams are really mirror images of each other with porous defenses and great offensive potential and given the importance of the game to Chicago we should see a lot of goals on Saturday night. Montreal are #1 in MLS in shots on goal per possession while Chciago are #4 in shots on goal and #3 in shots attempted per possession. Defensively only Van and Chivas USA are worse than Montreal in shots allowed per opponent possession while Chicago are only two spots better, in 15th so we have two of the 5 most generous defenses facing two of the four most active offenses. This is first of only 2 home matches remaining for Chicago so it's a must win game as 0 or 1 point will make things very difficult so a goal by Montreal means Chicago cannot be satisfied with a draw and Chicago simply can't keep clean sheets so no reason to believe this match will be any different. In last 20 games only ONCE have Chicago held opponent without a goal and have allowed a goal every match vs Montreal (1-2-1-1 allowed) in the past two seasons. Montreal posting a lot of overs as you'd expect with 7 of last 8 over 2.5. Their porous defense is terrible in road games posting just one clean sheet since March and allowing 24 goals in those 12 games, so an even 2 goals per match. This match also features the league's top two scorers with DiVaio (18) and Magee (16) going for the golden boot and Chicago will have to defend DiVaio without their top defender, Bakary Soumare, who is suspended for the match. This will cause a major shift in their defense and it's not known yet if they'll move Anibaba to CDF and replace him at RFB or use the inexperienced Hunter Jumper (2 games in MLS) to handle DiVaio who is a complete headache for a central defender as he constantly pushes up the field which is why he far-and-away leads MLS in offside calls....actually 2x as much as 2nd guy in MLS. Really not the match to have Soumare miss, for sure. Expecting a couple by HT in this as well since Chicago are #2 in east in 1H goals scored at home but 3rd worst in the league in home 1H goals allowed. Similarly Montreal 2nd worst in MLS road 1H goals allowed but 2nd in the east in 1H road goals scored.
 

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I would like to be able to have access to your private forum, PM me if you wouldn't mind...if not that cool too. Thanks
 

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Costa Rica 8pm

Alajuelense/Perez over 2.75 1u to win 1u
 

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MLS 9pm

Sea/Rbny under 2.5 1.5u to win 1.51u
 

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don't know why i'm surprised at anything this cvnt says but he might want to invest in a mirror. he's got the same exact fucking team that won the league by 11 points last spring and were within one shitty red card of being in the CL quarters

Moyes: "Man United lack top talent"
 

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MLS 11pm

Chivas USA .5u to win 2.1u

pending:
8pm Alajuelense/Perez over 2.75 1u to win 1u
9pm Sea/Rbny under 2.5 1.5u to win 1.51u
11 pm Chivas USA .5u to win 2.1u
 

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Italy 2:45 Monday

Fiorentina -1 .88u to win 1u

- despite loss vs Inter la Viola were pretty impressive especially in 1H. Last year they were #1 in Serie A vs bottom half teams at home with a 8-1-1 record and scoring 25 goals and Parma will be a bottom half team. Parma last year were Serie A's worst team in road games vs top half teams, which Fiorentina will again be, posting a brutal 0-1-8 5/18 record and their 3-year mark on road vs top half is 3-4-31 allowing 62 goals. Busy week though for la Viola with match monday, then europe thu, and back in serie A on sunday so some rotation in lineup is possible.
 

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This earthquake game is officially fixed. The disallowed goal by Lenhart was the worst call I've ever seen. He did not touch anyone and was called for a foul before he headed it home.
 

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Champions League Tue/Wed

Ajax pk 1u to win 1.04u
treble Zenit/Real Madrid/Juventus 1u to win .82u
 

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Sun/Mon
-0.88 viola
-0.50 cusa
+1.00 perez
+1.51 rbny

2-0-2 +1.13 (3.88)

YTD 293-24-211 +84.37 (657.99)

pending:
Ajax pk 1u to win 1.04u
Zenit/Real Madrid/Juventus 1u to win .82u
 

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Hey, rolltide.

I was looking at the Man. City vs. Bayern Munich match and was wondering if there were any significant trends when German sides play away vs. an English side in UEFA CL.

If you don't mind sharing, I seem to remember you posted a link to a site that you use to research country vs. country trends.
 

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yeah, played the trend last year with city f'ing me vs dortmund (was lucky draw for city even) but historically total domination by english teams. this was my write up

had to put a blindfold on to hit submit for this one...biggest one of week now after odds moved so heavily in Dortmund's favor

Arab Money Machine vs Dortmund
- I'm not a fan at all of German teams away in Europe especially not when playing the English champs. H2H in CL is pretty ugly with English winning 14 straight at home (yeah, that's 14-0-0) going back to the '04-'05 tournament. City contributed one of those last year beating Bayern 2-0 here while Dortmund lost in London vs Arsenal and have lost all 3 matches in England played since 2000. Dortmund had Kagawa depart to united for 14M in summer and important striker Barrios headed to China for 8M but they didn't lose Lewandowski to United, as expected. On road in CL last year were heavy defeats at Marseille (3-0), Oly (3-1) and Arsenal (2-1...was 2-0 until Kagawa scored in stoppage). City haven't lost a meaningful home match since Dec 2010 which includes 32 EPL games, 2 Europa league games, and 3 CL matches...37 straight without defeat including 33 outright wins. yet prices suggest City have less than a 50% chance of winning this match? huh?

City (ugh) 2u +113



http://www.eurocupshistory.com/matc...and_against_germany_in_uefa_club_competitions
 

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a couple nasty late goals against the past few days. anyway, a few for wed

City vs Bayern
- wouldn't play Etihadans unless i absolutely had to but just stupid value on them tomorrow. I'd rate this game PK all around but the Bayern machine is getting way too much respect. English teams are unbeaten in 15 at home vs Germans with only City's draw vs Dortmund the only point Germans took back with them.

Man City +0.5 1u to win .72u

Anderlecht
- no reason for a pk line as Belgians are simply a class above Greeks. all-time in euro the Belgian clubs have lost only 6x in 38 matches overall and only once EVER in Belgium (1991 PAOK at Mechelen) for a 14-4-1 all time home record in 20 matches. Market value b/w the clubs is very close now but Oly are always in CL and always terrible on road with 6 wins in 38. Nice start for both in domestic leagues but Anderlecht rolling with a 23-3 goal differential in L5 at home. Should be some goals in this one for sure but I'll go with home pk line instead of over 2.5

Anderlecht pk 1.17u to win 1u
 

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Tue 9pm

RSL/DC over 2.5 1u to win .81u
 

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