stats, number crunching, situation, missing players, and a bit of intuition (at least in mls and mexico).
probably get a better idea by reading my private forum preview of chicago/montreal, btw i don't consider those to be "late goals" in chicago...was one in the net in first half hour, another in second half hour, and two in final half hour with the bet a winner with still 17 minutes left.
Chicago Fire vs Montreal Impact
- teams are really mirror images of each other with porous defenses and great offensive potential and given the importance of the game to Chicago we should see a lot of goals on Saturday night. Montreal are #1 in MLS in shots on goal per possession while Chciago are #4 in shots on goal and #3 in shots attempted per possession. Defensively only Van and Chivas USA are worse than Montreal in shots allowed per opponent possession while Chicago are only two spots better, in 15th so we have two of the 5 most generous defenses facing two of the four most active offenses. This is first of only 2 home matches remaining for Chicago so it's a must win game as 0 or 1 point will make things very difficult so a goal by Montreal means Chicago cannot be satisfied with a draw and Chicago simply can't keep clean sheets so no reason to believe this match will be any different. In last 20 games only ONCE have Chicago held opponent without a goal and have allowed a goal every match vs Montreal (1-2-1-1 allowed) in the past two seasons. Montreal posting a lot of overs as you'd expect with 7 of last 8 over 2.5. Their porous defense is terrible in road games posting just one clean sheet since March and allowing 24 goals in those 12 games, so an even 2 goals per match. This match also features the league's top two scorers with DiVaio (18) and Magee (16) going for the golden boot and Chicago will have to defend DiVaio without their top defender, Bakary Soumare, who is suspended for the match. This will cause a major shift in their defense and it's not known yet if they'll move Anibaba to CDF and replace him at RFB or use the inexperienced Hunter Jumper (2 games in MLS) to handle DiVaio who is a complete headache for a central defender as he constantly pushes up the field which is why he far-and-away leads MLS in offside calls....actually 2x as much as 2nd guy in MLS. Really not the match to have Soumare miss, for sure. Expecting a couple by HT in this as well since Chicago are #2 in east in 1H goals scored at home but 3rd worst in the league in home 1H goals allowed. Similarly Montreal 2nd worst in MLS road 1H goals allowed but 2nd in the east in 1H road goals scored.