sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

Tiznow....I appreciate the gentlemanly back and forth here bro.I was just popping in to throw my MLB play in and I got a little sidetracked.Ive got folks waiting outside in pool (its about 95 here).

Last thing from me for tonite:

Great depression is an entirely other animal and no correlation can reasonably be made here.The markets and the overall atmosphere domestically and globally are like apples and oranges compared to the 1920s.

Have a nice night

Great depression was created due to an easy credit bubble on a global scale, shoe shine boys were trading stocks etc. You have that going on in China with people their quitting jobs to trade stocks for a living as their market has gone from 1000 to 4600ish in 2-3 years. Need to look at things on a global scale.

Enjoy the night as well basehead.

 

[tiznow]

Also one more note on the terrorism front, just look at people's response after 9/11 buying shit they didn't need, duct taping their homes with plastic, we currently throw out ridiculous amounts of shampoo, soap, etc in the name of security at airports. Homeland security issuing warnings freakin people out to buy stuff to take precautions, and bush's best combatant to it all after 9/11, keep spending keep going to malls, keep shopping (he did say this), be patriots and use them damn CCs to buy low quality chinese made garbage on easy credit from walmart.

 

[tiznow]

As for china luckily for us they aren't too smart they bought a big stake in blackstone right before it IPO'd 36 to 24 since inception.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HONG KONG: The first purchase by the Chinese government's new overseas investment fund, a $3 billion stake in the Blackstone Group, has backfired badly and produced an unusual public backlash within China.

Blackstone shares have fallen steeply since the company went public June 22, pushing down the value of the government's investment by more than $500 million in just six weeks. Bloggers and even some Chinese financial media have frequently mentioned the dwindling value of the government's stake, and some have been highly critical.

"O senior officials of the Chinese government, please do not be fooled by sweet-talking wolves dressed in human skin," said one of several Internet postings compiled by an anonymous blogger on Sina.com, a Chinese Web site. "The foreign reserves are the product of the sweat and blood of the people of China, please invest them with more care!"

In a sign that the Chinese government may be censoring criticism on the sensitive issue of government investment losses, the blogger's entry was visible on the Web site on Thursday afternoon but had disappeared by Thursday night. Other entries by the same blogger were blocked, but milder criticisms of the Blackstone investment could still be found.

For many years, China's central bank followed the example of most central banks by investing the bulk of its assets in Treasury bonds and other government bonds. But as China's foreign reserves have soared to $1.3 trillion, the government has started chasing higher returns - and is now learning that this involves greater risk and sometimes losses.

Over the last several years, the People's Bank of China has led the way among central banks in buying U.S. mortgage-backed securities, accumulating an estimated $100 billion worth of them, according to people with knowledge of the central bank's trading. The People's Bank of China has long chosen some of the most creditworthy tranches of these securities.

But with the malaise in the U.S. housing market, even the value of some previously creditworthy mortgage investments is starting to erode. The Chinese central bank abruptly halted purchases of U.S. mortgage-backed securities in May, although it does not appear to be liquidating existing holdings, said one person who follows the bank's trading practices closely.

 

[cussin'it]

Its been going on for months now (the subprime "crisis" correction) that is.The indecies will remain relatively stable.DJIA will be 14k+ (if not more)by the end of the year.Another month or so start bargain shopping for a big cap lender.Earnings,earnings,earnings will keep any sniff of a recession at a distance.

LOL, alas my brutha you wanna bet?
what say you shall be the stakes??

Dow will hit 12,300 before it ever sniffs 14 again this year. And when it does there's little chance it will recover to 14.

Credit meltdown is really serious chit bro. Spin it any which way, this is bad chit and a rocky ride for at least several months.

:howdy:

 

[BASEHEAD]

LOL, alas my brutha you wanna bet?
what say you shall be the stakes??

Dow will hit 12,300 before it ever sniffs 14 again this year. And when it does there's little chance it will recover to 14.

Credit meltdown is really serious chit bro. Spin it any which way, this is bad chit and a rocky ride for at least several months.

:howdy:

The usual Winston, 1.00.

Youre one .50 point rate cut from losing the bet.If things get as bad as you guys say the chance of the cut gets even better.Stocks are cyclical like the home market,they get cheap enough demand grows.

When these big cap companies stop turning big earnings then talk to me about a recession.

 

[cussin'it]

The usual Winston, 1.00.

Youre one .50 point rate cut from losing the bet.If things get as bad as you guys say the chance of the cut gets even better.Stocks are cyclical like the home market,they get cheap enough demand grows.

When these big cap companies stop turning big earnings then talk to me about a recession.

Whoa Nelly! I'm not talkin recession here. Have I? I'm talkin serious "correction" and a slow rebound. Of course here in a bit the buy, buy, buy kicks in (keep buying the ProV's though), BUT on a much more conservative approach for me.
There are other signs that just leave me room to doubt.

You are one more negative report from losing the bet. CPI, CC, Housing, or another blistering report from the financial sector. The fed cut the rate? Possible, and maybe they should, but I really doubt they will.

Seems like the one thing keeping it from freefalling has been the earnings reports.

None-the-less, I reckon I admire your optimism, just don't share it. Have a nice Day! Best to your Pops! :toast:

 

[BASEHEAD]

The problem with haircuts is that the hair always grows back.

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

The problem with haircuts is that the hair always grows back.

This thread is silly. Every day the market moves someone will declare victory? Huh....How about judging the market based on inflation and the worthless U.S. dollar and you'll see its done a whole lot of nothing recently....Make calls for the end of the year, and decade, not the end of the week.

 

[GAMEFACE]

Funny shit. The market has been kicking azz, will be back to 14000 in a few months. Buy now.

 

[BASEHEAD]

This thread is silly. Every day the market moves someone will declare victory? Huh....How about judging the market based on inflation and the worthless U.S. dollar and you'll see its done a whole lot of nothing recently....Make calls for the end of the year, and decade, not the end of the week.

I did ,steady 14k+ end of this year.

Worthless US dollar...lol.What do you live on ,the barter system?

Euro will crash before the USD,dollar will be fine.

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

I did ,steady 14k+ end of this year.

Worthless US dollar...lol.What do you live on ,the barter system?

Euro will crash before the USD,dollar will be fine.

Yeah losing 40% of its value in 6 or 7 years is nothing to worry about....14k is a number, nothing more. If the dollar loses another 40% and the market is at 20k you will be declaring victory then as well when you in fact have gained nothing.

 

[BASEHEAD]

Yeah losing 40% of its value in 6 or 7 years is nothing to worry about....14k is a number, nothing more. If the dollar loses another 40% and the market is at 20k you will be declaring victory then as well when you in fact have gained nothing.

40% compared to what? Or are you just holding the dollar up to other currencies of the world that also move around?There are a variey of ways to calculate the relative value of a dollar and Im not thinking 40% is very accurate.How bout some data? I dont deny 24/7 printing presses and inaccurate inflation figures but seriously you folks have got to get a grip.

The DOWs just a # but a number whos motion reflects investor sentiment,which is a key ingredient of the markets success or failure.

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

40% compared to what? Or are you just holding the dollar up to other currencies of the world that also move around?There are a variey of ways to calculate the relative value of a dollar and Im not thinking 40% is very accurate.How bout some data? I dont deny 24/7 printing presses and inaccurate inflation figures but seriously you folks have got to get a grip.

The DOWs just a # but a number whos motion reflects investor sentiment,which is a key ingredient of the markets success or failure.

Basehead, go to the weekly chart of the Eur/Dollar. http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/Chart.html?symbol=EUR/USD
It actually has lost more than 40% in a shorter time than I thought....I have a grip. I'm not a sky is falling person at all, besides the housing market. But people who point to the markets should realize that currency impact is real.

 

[BASEHEAD]

Basehead, go to the weekly chart of the Eur/Dollar. http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/Chart.html?symbol=EUR/USD
It actually has lost more than 40% in a shorter time than I thought....I have a grip. I'm not a sky is falling person at all, besides the housing market. But people who point to the markets should realize that currency impact is real.

Thats what I figured you were doing.

Dont their currencies also move up (get stronger?).What happens to the US dollar when the euro fades away into oblivion?

This is not an accurate measure IMHO of the purchasing power of a dollar,which what were talking about when you say MY $$$ is worthless.

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

Thats what I figured you were doing.

Dont their currencies also move up (get stronger?).What happens to the US dollar when the euro fades away into oblivion?

This is not an accurate measure IMHO of the purchasing power of a dollar,which what were talking about when you say MY $$$ is worthless.

C'mon Base, your dollars aren't worthless. They are simply worth "less." And significantly less against the other major currency. The Yen is played with to keep the carry trade going....Ad nauseum in other threads I have discussed how the weak dollar inflates quite a bit, including markets....In fact I'll say that if the dollar rallies to the 1.33 level, the market will take a nice hair cut.

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

<CENTER>[SIZE=-1]Disturbing Trend #5[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]The Alarming Growth of Foreign-held Debt[/SIZE]</CENTER>
[SIZE=-1]Foreign debt hangs like a sword of Damocles over the American economy. As our table illustrates this disturbing trend has shown the highest growth rate of them all. At this writing, foreign governments, institutions and individuals hold a collectively over $2 trillion of U.S. paper -- roughly one fourth of the national debt. Japan alone holds over $600 billion and mainland China over $400 billion. To suggest a measuring stick, federal tax receipts stand at roughly $2.2 trillion.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]It is not just the presence of the debt itself which worries the inner sanctums of Wall Street, but the threat foreign-held debt represents to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Through the purchase and sale of U.S. Treasuries, foreign creditors can force interest rates up when the Fed would like to keep them down and force them down when the Fed would like to keep them up. In other words, the Fed very well may be losing control of interest rate policy. Recently, when the Congress threatened trade sanctions against China, the bond market began declining, thus pushing up interest rates. This foreign influence on Fed policy-making did not exist even five years ago.[/SIZE]


<CENTER>[SIZE=-1]

[/SIZE]</CENTER>
[SIZE=-1]There is an even darker aspect to the problem of foreign held debt, and that has to do with the international reaction to the future value of the dollar. If faith is lost, or even weakened to the extent that the trend to diversify out of dollars gathers steam, what is now a trickle of returning U.S. dollars could become a torrent. This, in turn, could trigger an uncontrollable inflation and dollar crisis globally.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]Some analysts have pointed out that such an exodus would be farfetched in that the holders themselves would have a great deal to lose by unloading a large portion of their positions. The fact of the matter, though, is that the exodus has already begun. For example, Russia recently announced that it was juggling its reserves to purchase Japanese yen. Several Gulf oil producing states have quietly followed suit and are switching out of dollars and into both the euro and yen. Japan over the past year has actually reduced its Treasury position and Chinese officials recently suggested that its central bank might exchange some of its more than $1 trillion in reserves for gold and oil. Many nation states with large dollar holdings have formed sovereign wealth funds, the purpose of which is to utilize reserves to acquire other assets including hard commodities, natural resource companies and an array of other assets. Analysts often infer that their exodus will be controlled, but the problem with systemic crisis is that the evolution from a controlled liquidation to panic, particularly a panic in the ranks of private institutional funds, can come quickly and without warning. That said, even a slow-motion unraveling, or a simple withdrawal from regular U.S. debt purchases, could have a devastating effect on the value of the dollar.[/SIZE]


<CENTER>[SIZE=-1]Disturbing Trend #6[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]The Long-Term Decline of the U.S. Dollar[/SIZE]</CENTER>
[SIZE=-1]Would you own a stock that performed like the item represented in the graph below? The dollar is now a currency under siege. The cumulative effect of the disturbing trends outlined here has been to undermine the purchasing power of the dollar. In reality, it has been steadily debased in fits and starts since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. However, in recent years that steady debasement has taken on a more urgent character due to the combined threats of a shrinking market for U.S. Treasuries and the dollar as the chief reserve currency. Add the current problems in the mortgage markets, which have pushed several major banks against the ropes, and you have the potential for an imminent dollar crisis. We may no longer have to gaze into the distant future for a glimpse of what is to come for the dollar. The day of reckoning might very well have already arrived.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]The 1913 dollar is now worth less than 5¢ in purchasing power. The 1945 dollar is now worth less than 10¢. The 1970 dollar is now worth 19.5¢. The 1985 dollar (during a time when we were told repeatedly inflation was benign) is now worth only 58¢. This disturbing trend is troublesome to say the least, but when you consider that the depreciation of a currency, when it comes to inflation, is technically infinite (in other words there really is no bottom), you begin to understand why some have begun to view gold as a permanent aspect to the contemporary portfolio.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]To show you how far we've come in so short a time, consider this statement in November, 2002 from Federal Reserve governor Benjamin Bernanke when asked about the tanking U.S. economy and fears of a deflation were running high: "The US government has a technology called a printing press -- or, today, its electronic equivalent -- that allows (the Federal Reserve) to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost." How many of us would have ever imagined a statement like that being uttered by a member of the Federal Reserve? And now that same Benjamin Bernanke has been appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve.[/SIZE]


<CENTER>[SIZE=-1]

[/SIZE]</CENTER>


<CENTER></CENTER>

 

[BASEHEAD]

So we all know about the foreign debt and trade imbalances weve accrued over time but the final chart you show is not representing a 40% drop in worthiness over the last 7 years.

Not even close.

Acually a weak dollar helps the trade imbalance in the long run ,as far as the notes goes ,its only a problem if theyre all liquidated simultaneously which is not likely to happen.

How does one put a figure to the "debt" China owes us for buying all thier shit? It would seem to me if we stopped buying their bargain basement goods, told them to take their IOUs and fuck off theyd be the ones in trouble.

301 toy recalls this year- 100% made in China....that cant be good for business....among other things.

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

No the euro/dollar chart shows the drop as I posted the link a few posts back--weekly chart--....I hate to pull rank here, since I never do, but I teach economics for a living. I'm open to all opinions and find there are some intelligent people on the site, but I'm definitely not talking out of my ass here.

 

[cussin'it]

Nice fucking day eh?

Hmm, basey. Kinda looked like you were knocking at the 14K door there thru Wed.? Perhaps after Oct. gets thru, you might have a sniff. LOL (Cry out loud for all you equities holders)

Keep telling you the credit meltdown is like throwing a boulder in a fishbowl. Yet no one seems to fucking care here. Foundation is more like quick sand rather than the rock solid that so many righties preach in here. :WTF:

hno: :ughhh:

 

[BASEHEAD]

Bet it bounces tomorrow?

Each and every day its overspecualtion based on one specific data/quotation that bumps it up or down.Its the very definition of volatile,not the titanic Cuss.Today was an easy day to avoid disaster as this was easy to see coming.BNP was no secret.

Good $$$ to be made on these dips incidently.

This too will pass.

Only 13% of all mortgages subprime-only 14% of those are deliquent.