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the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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well they fluffed the dow at the end....can tell the we ONLY 65 down dow points today after the 370 yesterday

its fallen this far already why jump ship now it'll come back someday

those rate cuts the fed did MIGHT kick in later this year and avert a recession or just make it a mild one

and we got a bush "stimulus" check coming to boot

keep holding onto that bag

as they continue to try to keep the markets calm as we fall into the abyss so that people don't panic and mass dump
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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csco didn't beat by a penny WTF

met at 38 cents probably gets hit pretty good in AH lets see

and met on revenue too

22.68 from 23.08 close so far

i guess it already has fallen from 34 since the bear market started in october....so meeting probably won't cause too much damage down here

flat in AH now

plus don't see any guidance which is the key CC starts in 18 min
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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EDS missed big

19.61 to 18 so far

err...they had charges estimate was 57 cents excluding charges, came in with 55
 

Triple digit silver kook
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Of course Im not going to make any trading or investment decisions based upon this type of stuff, but its kind of funny.

========

• The NY Giants won their first Super Bowl in 1987; the Great US Stock Market Crash appeared later.
• The NY Giants won their second Super Bowl in 1991; the last US full-blown recession appeared; money center banks barely avoided the abyss.
• Before yesterday, the last NYC ticker-tape parade was 2000 (Yankees); the Great US Stock Bubble burst.
• The NY Giants won their third Super Bowl in 2008 and received a ticker-tape parade; head to the caves!

:WTF:

 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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:lolBIG:

well its gonna happen again DAW %^_

tomorrow we get more housing gloom and doom, some jobs data, and get to see how much the sheep tightening up on the credit front

crude inventories were actually today they were way up reason oil got smacked another dollar today, inventories stacking up in US yet another R sign

Feb 7 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/02 - 350K 340K 375K -
Feb 7 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Dec - - - -2.6% -
Feb 7 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/02 - NA NA NA -
Feb 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec - $12.0B $8.0B $15.4B -
 

role player
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Military stocks like LLL which have been holding their own all through this bear, spotted a demi president on the horizon today. :shocked:
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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yeah JP CSCO warned in the CC

Cisco Systems Inc.'s quarterly profit rose on a 17% jump in revenue, but Chief Executive John Chambers issued a cautious outlook, saying some customers had slowed spending on Cisco's Internet routers and switches.

In a conference call, Mr. Chambers said orders were below the company's expectations in January and the softness may continue for "several months." He forecast revenue growth of 10% in the current quarter, which is below the company's long-term growth estimate ...

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we in a bear JP act like your avatar :103631605

1.25% haircut on nasdaq 100 in AH on csco warning
 

role player
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Drug companies ,whether they be life saving insulin drugs, smiley faced anti-depressants, or recreational pain killers ain't going to be catching any breaks no matter who the president is now. They could come out with a panacea which cures everything from brain tumors to ingrown toenails and be forced to sell it for 4 bucks at walmart

ROOOOAAAARRRR
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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obama yo mama will go after the pharmaceuticals JP, hildebeast will probably leave um alone

--------------------------------

big cap techs getting creamed on csco

amzn down 1.53%
aapl 2.12%
intc 2.36%
msft 1.19%
rimm 2.59%
goog 1.34%

to name a few

------

hey guys 12-16% growth isn't gonna happen in q1 and q2 as we slow we only gonna make 10%

shocking development

-------------

markets were expecting way to much in general going forward as far as growth expectations and alot of that is getting flushed out of the market now and estimates are being revised down

the question is, is this a momentary early 2008 blip and rate cuts will do the trick, like they are telling us

or will it continue on for several years
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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the self employed having a hard time, and self employment doesn't really show up much in the jobs data

plus we are losing jobs in the job data, as the SE are looking for traditional jobs

bad combo

-----------------------------------------------------

U.S. Job-Market Weakening Is Led by Self-Employed, Data Shows

By Carlos Torres

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The increase in U.S. unemployment that's jeopardizing economic growth is being driven by a drop in the number of people working for themselves, government figures indicate.

Hours worked by the self-employed dropped at a 15.5 percent annual pace in the last three months of 2007, the biggest decrease in 15 years, according to data provided to Bloomberg News today by the Labor Department.

The decline ``is probably related to the housing downturn, since one in six workers in construction is self-employed, twice the average for all industries,'' said Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Massachusetts, forecasting firm.

The figures may be another indication of how the deepest real-estate slump in a quarter century is filtering through the economic statistics. The Labor Department said today that worker productivity grew more than forecast last quarter as hours for all employees, including those who work for themselves, fell at a 1.5 percent pace, the most in five years.

The number of people running their own businesses dropped by 365,000 last quarter, compared with the same period in 2006, according to separate Labor Department numbers.

The decline in the number of hours worked by the self- employed last quarter reflected a 9 percent annualized drop in employment combined with a 7 percent decrease in average weekly hours for those still with work, the department said.

Data Discord

The issue may also help resolve some discrepancies among various labor statistics, economists said.

The unemployment rate, calculated from the household survey that covers the self-employed, jumped 0.3 percentage point in December. The increase prompted some economists to predict the U.S. was already, or would soon be, in a recession.

Even as the jobless rate rose, revised figures from the survey of businesses, which doesn't track single-employee companies, showed hiring accelerated on average from the third quarter to the last three months of the year. Payrolls dropped in January for the first time in more than four years.

``Self-employment, as only calculated by the household survey, is probably reflecting the slump in the subprime mortgage market,'' said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC, a forecasting firm in Boulder, Colorado.

Mortgage Brokers

Many mortgage brokers involved in the subprime industry work for themselves, Englund said, citing anecdotal evidence and conversations with clients.

Self-employment may also help explain why first-time applications for jobless benefits have yet to reach levels normally associated with a weakening labor market. A four-week moving average of claims has ranged from 306,000 to 345,000 since July. Most economists believe it takes readings in excess of 350,000 to indicate an increase in firings.

Self-employed Americans, although they may file claims, are not eligible for benefits under the unemployment insurance system, according to the Labor Department.

``This could really help explain a lot of the conflicting signals in the data,'' said Englund.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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CSCO down to 21.6 AH

Probably blow past the Socgen morning lows with ease now.

:ohno:

Cisco is not only a major component within the nasdaq 100, its also a high market cap stock, so real money is being flushed down the toilet when it falls. New CSCO 52 week low after todays ah trading and still down 75% from the top of the 2000 bubble.

There really is no reason to be upset about the market falling. Find a way to short something and sit if you can, daytrade it on the short side sometimes, or exit altogether.

The market should have kept falling in 2002, but the fed decided to trash the dollar and try to print prosperity. Look at what the indexes have done since 2002 weighed vs. the dollars fall, and discover it was all a mirage.

Id like to see another nasdaq crash similar to 00-02 (-82%).

A crash like that and it will be like picking up diamonds on the beach for a while.

:dancefool:dancefool:dancefool
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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yeah daw

think you might see S&P average P/E swoon to late 70s early 80s values in this downswing (single digits)

2000 was the beginning not the end, 2000 was the start of one big secular bear

we just beginning the next leg of the bear down after the cyclical bull the last 5 years created in part due to funny money games

the tech bubble brainwashed us into valuations, things are not historically cheap right now AT ALL, and alot of these big cap techs that are still trading at 18 times p/e aren't huge growth companies anymore they are on par with BUD or whatever, the bigger and more vast you get the slower your growth becomes

we are now at the median 50 year value which also including ridiculous valuations from 1990-2000
 
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role player
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Cisco is not only a major component within the nasdaq 100, its also a high market cap stock, so real money is being flushed down the toilet when it falls. New CSCO 52 week low after todays ah trading and still down 75% from the top of the 2000 bubble.

There really is no reason to be upset about the market falling. Find a way to short something and sit if you can, daytrade it on the short side sometimes, or exit altogether.

The market should have kept falling in 2002, but the fed decided to trash the dollar and try to print prosperity. Look at what the indexes have done since 2002 weighed vs. the dollars fall, and discover it was all a mirage.

Id like to see another nasdaq crash similar to 00-02 (-82%).

A crash like that and it will be like picking up diamonds on the beach for a while.

:dancefool:dancefool:dancefool

Thanks for the advice woof, I and many others do appreciate it, even though you keep repeating yourself.

I'm completely out of all sector funds since the ag talk last month. Only holding a couple of stocks that I've had for a long time which should hold up as good as any in this market and also a small position in SIRI. 90 percent of my account is in a money market.

The short ETF's are on notepad and if I need some action, well I'll throw a dart at one of those.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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we'll see how nikkei does tonight think they the market to keep an eye on

nikkei has been leading the global markets down in general it seems

it peaked out in mid july while the global markets in general peaked out in october

and i'm a big proponent of the yen carry trade having a big affect on the global markets in general

nikkei low for last bear leg was 12572, had a bear shake just like US to 13889, and is currently falling back off at 13099 entering tonight

i expect them to plow to new lows before we do (assuming we are plowing to new lows going forward obviously but i think its a high probability)
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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also good to hear you in defensive mode JP honestly the key to bears is preserving your capital, the big money is made by those that are in when its a bull, and pull out when the bear become apparant and buy back in on the cheap somewhere down the road

you probably won't call the actual bottom as they are very hard to call

but say you held a stock from 10 to 50 now you are bailing at 40 cause you see the writing on the wall, and 2 years from now you buy back at 25 and it ultimately bottoms out at 15 and than goes back up to 50 after that

you saved a ton of capital by standing aside during the 40 to 25 fall that's how the real money is made

trying to short especially via the proshares is risky over the long haul and not for the faint of heart in general, and for those who are younger and can take on alot of risk, as markets in general in a bull much much more than they are in a bear

bears are swift and viscous and whipe out capital in a few years time

granted to me things seem alot more clearer now on the bearish front i suppose

i got burnt on occasion dabbling in shorts trying to top call during the funny money games the past 5 years when i was heavy into the PM end of things

i knew it was gonna end badly but bubbles are hard to top call and i've learned valuable lessons along the way as well
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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buffet came out to calm the markets saying there is no credit crunch :ohno:

still a big dollar bear too he's on your side in that respect JDOG and DAW

that said as i've said before dollar could still fall vs. other fiat, and with markets as well as commodities in general due to demand shrinking....

--------------------------------------------------

Buffett Sees No Credit Crunch, Forecasts Lower Dollar (Update3)

By Sean Pasternak and Doug Alexander

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said a credit crunch isn't under way and he forecast that the dollar's value is likely to decline.

Funds are available and can be borrowed inexpensively, Buffett said during an appearance in Toronto today as he took questions from the audience. The U.S. dollar is likely to fall during the next decade if policies don't change, he said.

Buffett ``wouldn't quite call it a credit crunch'' when asked to comment on global credit markets. ``Money is available and it's really quite cheap,'' he said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve said Feb. 4 that lenders made it tougher for companies and consumers to get loans in the past three months. About 80 percent of banks raised standards on commercial-property loans, a record, while a majority tightened terms on prime home mortgages, according to the Fed's survey of senior loan officers.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned Jan. 10 there was ``considerable evidence that banks have become more restrictive in their lending to firms and households.''

Buffett's company has the highest possible AAA credit rating and had more than $40 billion in cash available as of Sept. 30. He ranks among the world's richest people.

Berkshire isn't planning to invest in existing bond insurance companies, such as MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., Buffett said in an interview. Instead, Berkshire will concentrate on its own new bond insurance company, he said.

Bond Insurers

``We've got an unlimited amount we can put in,'' Buffett said during an interview after his appearance.

New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo has been trying to organize a bank-led rescue of Ambac to prevent downgrades of the bond insurer that may roil credit markets, two people briefed on the plan said last week. MBIA, the largest bond insurer, said today it plans to raise $750 million by selling stock.

The only currency Berkshire directly owns now is the Brazilian real, Buffett said. He blamed the declining dollar on the current account deficit, with the U.S. trade imbalance playing the largest role.

``If something is unsustainable, it's going to have consequences; so far the consequences have been a general decline in the dollar against major currencies,'' Buffett said. ``If we continue the same policies, we're going to get the same results in the next five or 10 years.''

Inflation Outlook

Buffett has said he was looking for acquisitions outside the U.S., in part to hedge against long-term declines in the dollar. The company made its first non-U.S. acquisition in 2006, when it paid $4 billion for 80 percent of Israel-based Iscar Metalworking Cos., a family-owned maker of industrial tools.

Inflation has been in ``remission'' and is likely to be more prevalent in the next 10 years, Buffett said. The billionaire said he has ``no idea'' if the economy will go into a recession and that the U.S. will do well in the long run.

Buffett, 77, built Berkshire Hathaway over four decades, turning a failing textile maker into a $200 billion investment and holding company with businesses ranging from brick-making to corporate jet leasing. The Omaha, Nebraska-based company gets about half its profit from insurance units, which include Geico.

Buffett said he's likely to support either of the Democratic candidates, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, for the U.S. presidential election in November.

Buffett spoke to investor relations and corporate communications executives to promote Berkshire's Business Wire news distribution unit, which has expanded into Canada.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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err....forgot japan is already 28% off the highs they could hold up better now

the US down much less from the top than most international markets in general (S&P currently 15.8% off the oct high)

Japan already felt a ton of pain

its currently green but dow and naz futures not budging

naz 100 futures off 24 points
dow futures off 56

------

plus ECB has a meeting tonight expected to hold their rates at 4%
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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can you say the D word?? no not the really bad one the other one %^_

-----------------------------------------

Gasoline could drop 50 cents/gallon by spring
Wed Feb 6, 2008 2:14pm EST

By Timothy Gardner

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. drivers could enjoy a drop of up to 50 cents per gallon in gasoline prices by this spring as high fuel prices and the threat of a recession force them to conserve, experts said on Wednesday.

U.S. gasoline supplies hit a near-14-year high of 227.5 million barrels last week, helped by falling demand for the fuel, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

"Gasoline stocks are continuing to increase and it implies that people are probably cutting down on gasoline consumption -- a result of the weakening economy," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

U.S. gasoline demand over the last four weeks only averaged about 1 percent more than the same period last year, the EIA said. Demand growth for the fuel has typically averaged about 1.5 to 2 percent a year and has been one of the major drivers of global oil markets.

"Something dramatic is occurring with consumer driving habits," Geoff Sundstrom, a spokesman for AAA motor club, said in a telephone interview. "These numbers, if sustained over next couple of weeks, should set the stage for a reversal of price forecasts."

He said U.S. gasoline prices in the spring could fall 50 cents a gallon from Wednesday's $2.98.

Spring gasoline prices in the world's largest energy consumer set the stage for fuel prices during the summer months when vacationers drive fuel demand to annual peaks.

In December, when oil prices were trading closer to a record $100 a barrel, compared with Wednesday's level of $87 a barrel, AAA predicted spring gasoline prices could hit a new record high above $3.50 per gallon, with fuel in some regions of the country hitting above $4.00.

The EIA had forecast similar spring gasoline prices.

On Wednesday, EIA analyst Doug MacIntyre warned that unexpected maintenance or economic run cuts at oil refineries could spike gasoline prices at any time, especially since U.S. refineries last week were only running at 84.3 percent of capacity.

Even so, he said he "certainly" expects that his agency next month will publish lower spring gasoline price forecasts.

Sundstrom said drivers are buying less gasoline because they feel the pinch from high fuel prices that have clung to near $3.00 a gallon and fear a recession amid the housing downturn.

"High gasoline prices by themselves have never altered consumer driving habits," he said. "Only when combined with some other factor have they fallen. In this case, it's anxiety about a recession."

He said gasoline demand may have fallen because businesses are making fewer sales calls and short haul deliveries, while consumers may have curtailed some shopping trips.

The record average price for gasoline, nearly $3.23 a gallon, was hit on May 24 last year, according to AAA.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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still a big dollar bear too he's on your side in that respect JDOG and DAW

Whats most important to know is that precious metals are rising and I believe are going to continue rising vs. ALL fiat paper currencies.

These other countries arent just going to sit around watching the us govt attempt to inflate away everything we owe our creditors (these same other countries), without inflating their own currencies.

Its going to be a race to the bottom among the worlds currencies, and its going to be a bumpy ride along the way. However, what will be left standing atop the mountain will be precious metals and people that are able and willing to stay aboard during the rough spots are going to make fortunes.


:chest:
 

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