Cheng, read the gold 470 get on board thread.
You should find some ideas there.
Another poster that isnt here much anymore, Phaedrus also used to post about gold and anything he posted is worth reading.
Alot of gold discussion in this thread, but its not easy to find among 4k posts.
You should find some ideas there.
Another poster that isnt here much anymore, Phaedrus also used to post about gold and anything he posted is worth reading.
Alot of gold discussion in this thread, but its not easy to find among 4k posts.
well boys and girls
messing with fed is usually asking for it but it worked last time round
tossing back in half of my tradable short position
think fed meeting might be the end to this bear shake leg, if they cut 50 kinda expected, if they cut 25 which i'm personally leaning toward markets won't like it, just don't think they would cut 50 here....plus after this meeting we got 6 long weeks to wait for the next fed movement as they aren't cutting intermeeting again unless markets are crashing or something
also as a side note homies are down, i was keeping my eye on them to see when they started to roll over as have led the bear shake charge. financials down too
messing with fed is usually asking for it but it worked last time round
tossing back in half of my tradable short position
think fed meeting might be the end to this bear shake leg, if they cut 50 kinda expected, if they cut 25 which i'm personally leaning toward markets won't like it, just don't think they would cut 50 here....plus after this meeting we got 6 long weeks to wait for the next fed movement as they aren't cutting intermeeting again unless markets are crashing or something
also as a side note homies are down, i was keeping my eye on them to see when they started to roll over as have led the bear shake charge. financials down too
too much too soon
that would be 5.25 to 3 already that's insanity
honestly i don't think they even would want to cut 25 bp, but people are whining and expecting it so they will have to give um 25
plus you gotta remember its all about playing with your ammo and rationing it
they running outta of room
and used up alot of it intermeeting
that would be 5.25 to 3 already that's insanity
honestly i don't think they even would want to cut 25 bp, but people are whining and expecting it so they will have to give um 25
plus you gotta remember its all about playing with your ammo and rationing it
they running outta of room
and used up alot of it intermeeting
no they did what they felt they needed to do
they paniced with euro and asia absolutely tanking (they were down like 10% on average before we opened on tuesday so fed said uh oh time to stop a potential crash)
they will cut aggressively to avert a crash scenerio, now that markets seem stable for now no need to go overboard
at this point feds main job
keep markets from panicking as we fall, i'm pretty damn sure they know themselves they aren't gonna stop a fall
they paniced with euro and asia absolutely tanking (they were down like 10% on average before we opened on tuesday so fed said uh oh time to stop a potential crash)
they will cut aggressively to avert a crash scenerio, now that markets seem stable for now no need to go overboard
at this point feds main job
keep markets from panicking as we fall, i'm pretty damn sure they know themselves they aren't gonna stop a fall
i told you i'm saying they will most likely cut 25 bp that's what i said
futures are trading at like 75% probability of 50 bp so if i was a futures trader i'd be betting on 25 bp cut in that market
markets are all based on probabilities and placing bets accordingly DAW there are no certainties
futures are trading at like 75% probability of 50 bp so if i was a futures trader i'd be betting on 25 bp cut in that market
markets are all based on probabilities and placing bets accordingly DAW there are no certainties
just a side note 10 year bond now 3.7%, above the current fed rate of 3.5%
prior to today the 10 year had been pre predicting rate cuts by moving down to that percent
anyway obviously i'm bored, cut already damnit!!
the pre fed meeting crap is always boring like this
prior to today the 10 year had been pre predicting rate cuts by moving down to that percent
anyway obviously i'm bored, cut already damnit!!
the pre fed meeting crap is always boring like this
oh didn't see GDP
well it didn't go negative in Q4 .6% gain, we'll see what Q1 brings
--------------------------------
Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter
Wednesday January 30, 11:00 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter; Suffers Worst Year Since 2002
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy nearly stalled in the fourth quarter with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, capping its worst year since 2002.
The Commerce Department's report on the gross domestic product, released Wednesday, showed an economy that had deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown, even as inflation remained elevated.
For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years. The report came as the Democratic-run Congress and the Bush administration continue to work on a program of tax rebates and business incentives aimed at stimulating the economy.
"We are not happy with 0.6 percent GDP growth," Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said in an interview with The Associated Press. "We now need the full Congress to move forward as soon as possible because consumers -- the American people -- are waiting for that check and that is going to help them."
Said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics: "The economy has been subject to something of the perfect storm here. It has been hit by the housing slump the credit squeeze, the subprime slime and stock price declines on Wall Street. The economy is weathering some pretty stormy seas but it is weak."
On Wall Street, stocks slid. The Dow Jones industrials were down around 34 points in morning trading.
The fourth-quarter's performance was much weaker -- half the pace -- than economists were expecting. They were forecasting growth to clock in a 1.2 percent pace.
The 0.6 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product (GDP) marked a big loss of momentum from the third quarter's brisk, 4.9 percent showing. The fourth-quarter pace was the slowest since the first quarter of last year.
The GDP figures come as worries mount that the country is on the verge of a recession or perhaps is already sliding into one.
To help bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve was poised Wednesday to again cut interest rates. An afternoon announcement was expected.
The administration remains hopeful that a recession can be skirted.
"We are looking at slower growth, and the indicators -- the facts, the numbers we have at out disposal -- suggest that is what we will see" for the first half of the year, Gutierrez said. The economy should return to a more solid growth rate in the second half of this year, he said.
The fragile economic situation has spurred rare cooperation among Democrats, Republicans and the White House to quickly enact legislation -- including rebates -- to stimulate the economy.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic health.
In the fourth quarter, consumer spending slowed to a pace of 2 percent, down from a 2.8 percent growth rate in the prior quarter. For all of last year, consumers boosted spending by 2.9 percent, the smallest increase since 2003.
Businesses also watched their spending more closely during the final quarter of last year. Fearing a lessening appetite from their customers, they cut inventories of goods. That shaved 1.25 percentage points from fourth-quarter GDP, the most in a year.
Spending by businesses on equipment and software slowed to a pace of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter. For the year, such spending was up just 1.4 percent, the worst showing since 2002.
Sales of U.S. goods and services abroad also slowed sharply in the fourth quarter. Exports grew at a 3.9 percent pace, compared with a sizzling 19.1 percent growth rate in the third quarter. That strong export growth was a key reason why the economy performed so well as a whole in the prior quarter. For all of 2007, exports grew by 7.9 percent, the slowest in two years.
Meanwhile, inflation picked up sharply during the final quarter. However, for all of 2007, it moderated slightly.
A gauge of inflation linked to the GDP report showed that "core" prices -- excluding food and energy -- grew at a rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from a 2 percent rate in the prior quarter and was the biggest quarterly increase since the spring of 2006.
For all of last year, core prices went up 2.1 percent, down from 2.2 percent in 2006. The inflation figures are above the Fed's comfort zone -- the upper bound of which is a 2 percent inflation rate.
High energy prices are a double-edged sword. They can put a damper on growth and also stoke inflation, which would be a dangerous combination for the economy.
The inflation figures could complicate the Fed's job of trying to energize overall economic growth while also keeping inflation under control.
Some analysts think the economy is on pace to recede from January through March. Under one rough rule, the economy would have to contract for six months in a row for the country is considered to be in a recession. The odds of a recession have risen sharply over the last year, and analysts increasingly believe the U.S. will be in one during the first half of this year.
well it didn't go negative in Q4 .6% gain, we'll see what Q1 brings
--------------------------------
Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter
Wednesday January 30, 11:00 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter; Suffers Worst Year Since 2002
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy nearly stalled in the fourth quarter with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, capping its worst year since 2002.
The Commerce Department's report on the gross domestic product, released Wednesday, showed an economy that had deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown, even as inflation remained elevated.
For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years. The report came as the Democratic-run Congress and the Bush administration continue to work on a program of tax rebates and business incentives aimed at stimulating the economy.
"We are not happy with 0.6 percent GDP growth," Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said in an interview with The Associated Press. "We now need the full Congress to move forward as soon as possible because consumers -- the American people -- are waiting for that check and that is going to help them."
Said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics: "The economy has been subject to something of the perfect storm here. It has been hit by the housing slump the credit squeeze, the subprime slime and stock price declines on Wall Street. The economy is weathering some pretty stormy seas but it is weak."
On Wall Street, stocks slid. The Dow Jones industrials were down around 34 points in morning trading.
The fourth-quarter's performance was much weaker -- half the pace -- than economists were expecting. They were forecasting growth to clock in a 1.2 percent pace.
The 0.6 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product (GDP) marked a big loss of momentum from the third quarter's brisk, 4.9 percent showing. The fourth-quarter pace was the slowest since the first quarter of last year.
The GDP figures come as worries mount that the country is on the verge of a recession or perhaps is already sliding into one.
To help bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve was poised Wednesday to again cut interest rates. An afternoon announcement was expected.
The administration remains hopeful that a recession can be skirted.
"We are looking at slower growth, and the indicators -- the facts, the numbers we have at out disposal -- suggest that is what we will see" for the first half of the year, Gutierrez said. The economy should return to a more solid growth rate in the second half of this year, he said.
The fragile economic situation has spurred rare cooperation among Democrats, Republicans and the White House to quickly enact legislation -- including rebates -- to stimulate the economy.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic health.
In the fourth quarter, consumer spending slowed to a pace of 2 percent, down from a 2.8 percent growth rate in the prior quarter. For all of last year, consumers boosted spending by 2.9 percent, the smallest increase since 2003.
Businesses also watched their spending more closely during the final quarter of last year. Fearing a lessening appetite from their customers, they cut inventories of goods. That shaved 1.25 percentage points from fourth-quarter GDP, the most in a year.
Spending by businesses on equipment and software slowed to a pace of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter. For the year, such spending was up just 1.4 percent, the worst showing since 2002.
Sales of U.S. goods and services abroad also slowed sharply in the fourth quarter. Exports grew at a 3.9 percent pace, compared with a sizzling 19.1 percent growth rate in the third quarter. That strong export growth was a key reason why the economy performed so well as a whole in the prior quarter. For all of 2007, exports grew by 7.9 percent, the slowest in two years.
Meanwhile, inflation picked up sharply during the final quarter. However, for all of 2007, it moderated slightly.
A gauge of inflation linked to the GDP report showed that "core" prices -- excluding food and energy -- grew at a rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from a 2 percent rate in the prior quarter and was the biggest quarterly increase since the spring of 2006.
For all of last year, core prices went up 2.1 percent, down from 2.2 percent in 2006. The inflation figures are above the Fed's comfort zone -- the upper bound of which is a 2 percent inflation rate.
High energy prices are a double-edged sword. They can put a damper on growth and also stoke inflation, which would be a dangerous combination for the economy.
The inflation figures could complicate the Fed's job of trying to energize overall economic growth while also keeping inflation under control.
Some analysts think the economy is on pace to recede from January through March. Under one rough rule, the economy would have to contract for six months in a row for the country is considered to be in a recession. The odds of a recession have risen sharply over the last year, and analysts increasingly believe the U.S. will be in one during the first half of this year.
By E* Report
In general there is excessive leverage in both the markets and on household balance sheets that will need to be reduced now as banks rebuild their shattered balance sheets.
So far the US banks have been able to raise almost a dollar of new equity from sovereign wealth funds for every dollar they have had to write off tier-one capital, and so far no major bank or hedge fund has gone broke. The worst bank collapse has been Northern Rock in the UK, although it will be interesting to see how Societe Generale fares now.
If this is the worst of it, we have all dodged a bullet; however, I don’t think it is. There is a significant risk that this is a more traditional bear market with some months to run, and that although the market price/earnings multiple is back to a level that looks historically cheap, that’s based on earnings forecasts that are looking shaky.
This year will present some of the greatest investment opportunities in our lifetimes – as all previous bear markets have done – but for a few months at least “value” could prove to be a shifting quantity if earnings are downgraded.
In my view there are three key themes that matter:
1: We have entered a period of credit shortage (which is driving the bear market in equities). Companies that rely on debt capital will suffer because it is harder to get and more expensive. Those in the business of providing and arranging credit – banks and investment banks – will suffer an earnings decline because there will be less activity for a while.
2: There are only two types of commodity that can be absolutely relied upon to remain strong in the face of this downturn – precious metals and food. That’s because they are in structural short supply and high demand. Oil and coal prices are overlaid by the emergence of carbon trading, and therefore an extra price on the carbon, which could problematic in the medium term. Iron ore demand looks likely to remain strong due to construction and motor vehicle demand in China and India, but a supply boom could restrain prices.
3: So far consumer sentiment and demand in both the US and Australia looks resilient. In the US it is unlikely to survive a bout of rising unemployment if there is, in fact, a recession. Here unemployment is also about to rise (because the Reserve Bank will make sure it does) but consumer sentiment should be supported by strength in the housing market caused by a structural shortage of residential land. On the whole, consumer-related stocks should prove to be defensive, except for those that are heavily geared.
In general there is excessive leverage in both the markets and on household balance sheets that will need to be reduced now as banks rebuild their shattered balance sheets.
So far the US banks have been able to raise almost a dollar of new equity from sovereign wealth funds for every dollar they have had to write off tier-one capital, and so far no major bank or hedge fund has gone broke. The worst bank collapse has been Northern Rock in the UK, although it will be interesting to see how Societe Generale fares now.
If this is the worst of it, we have all dodged a bullet; however, I don’t think it is. There is a significant risk that this is a more traditional bear market with some months to run, and that although the market price/earnings multiple is back to a level that looks historically cheap, that’s based on earnings forecasts that are looking shaky.
This year will present some of the greatest investment opportunities in our lifetimes – as all previous bear markets have done – but for a few months at least “value” could prove to be a shifting quantity if earnings are downgraded.
In my view there are three key themes that matter:
1: We have entered a period of credit shortage (which is driving the bear market in equities). Companies that rely on debt capital will suffer because it is harder to get and more expensive. Those in the business of providing and arranging credit – banks and investment banks – will suffer an earnings decline because there will be less activity for a while.
2: There are only two types of commodity that can be absolutely relied upon to remain strong in the face of this downturn – precious metals and food. That’s because they are in structural short supply and high demand. Oil and coal prices are overlaid by the emergence of carbon trading, and therefore an extra price on the carbon, which could problematic in the medium term. Iron ore demand looks likely to remain strong due to construction and motor vehicle demand in China and India, but a supply boom could restrain prices.
3: So far consumer sentiment and demand in both the US and Australia looks resilient. In the US it is unlikely to survive a bout of rising unemployment if there is, in fact, a recession. Here unemployment is also about to rise (because the Reserve Bank will make sure it does) but consumer sentiment should be supported by strength in the housing market caused by a structural shortage of residential land. On the whole, consumer-related stocks should prove to be defensive, except for those that are heavily geared.
