sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

i just don't see any wiggle room anymore

i mean oil could be at 100+ a barrel down the road

but due to US consumption the prices of gas in the US could go to 2.50 or lower

this will hurt the oil companies big time

plus US consumption declines brings down prices of base metals and other things and base metal producers use oil to mine their stuff so their profit margins go down too

bottom line i think due to global demand along with continued dollar trashing commodities themselves like gold, oil, grains etc could do just fine

but the PRODUCERS bottom lines will be hurt because consumption will drop regardless, which is why i don't like the miners, oil companies, etc....

 

[tiznow]

i think your starting to see this play out as well jdog

^hui only up .92% today while gold up 16 bucks or 1.8%

let me check on gold vs. hui performance since october which was the market top

hui was ~400 in oct now 465 16% gain

gold was ~750 now 926 23.5% gain

oil was ~80 in oct now 90 12.5% gain

oih (oil services etf) ~180 now 165 DOWN 8.33%

xom (exxon) ~90 now 85

as you can see the actual commodity in case of oil and gold the place to be

i think this is a key to denote regardless of my deflation talk as things stand now i'm quite certain the place you want to be in the commodity game is with the physical commodity itself

not the companies involved in harvesting it and distributing it

 

[tiznow]

uso is oil the commodity etf, dba is agriculture, and gold/silver if you don't want to buy the physical get it via CEF

AUY a miner darling to many has been outperformed by CEF the last 3 months

these are safer bets than the companies themselves IMO

 

[Brooklynbomber]

junior gold mining stocks have been dead for two years

not sure when they break out, but it'll happen. will $1000 gold be the catalyst?

you want to talk about a moonshot when these things start to move.....

 

[Brooklynbomber]

buying a mining stock or oil producer tiz is like having an option on the raw goods that never expire.

 

[tiznow]

regardless the miners bottom line is based on profits from selling the raw goods

if their profit margins are going down it doesn't matter how high the prices are they aren't gonna go up

on gold it isn't as much an issue than say oil

like i said 100+ oil and 2.50 gas at the pump in the US will hurt them bad

oil companies are down since the markets peaked out, oil prices are up 10 bucks

 

[tiznow]

the "4 horseman" not doing too hot today (AMZN, RIMM, GOOG, AAPL) all red

amzn 74.80 shorted at 94

see ya at sub 50 eventually

:money8:

 

[tiznow]

junior gold mining stocks have been dead for two years

not sure when they break out, but it'll happen. will $1000 gold be the catalyst?

you want to talk about a moonshot when these things start to move.....

what juniors you like

might toss one in my holdings for the hell of it if i like the looks of the chart

 

[HuskerFan1]

can someone explain why cash is being eaten alive...i know the basics regarding the economy, supply/demand, inflation, but im trying to get more knowledgable ATB thats why i continuously read this thread daily

 

[tiznow]

i'm not really sure what jdog meant by it

but as far as money supply goes when markets go down money is lit on fire

you typical investor that isn't to retirement yet between 401k, and all the other crap probably has at least 50% of their savings bag holding long equities

when values go down dramatically money is lit on fire, it doesn't go anywhere, someone is holding the equities at all times

 

[Brooklynbomber]

husker, inflation is simply higher than the return anybody is getting in cash, CD's rates are falling and inflation is rising. the "true" inflation rate is at least 6%, more likely 8-10%....so if you have a CD or MMA paying 5% you're losing a little bit every year

tiz - DAW the real expert, but getting a junior call out of him would be akin to
Bernanke giving one out. doubtful. I like TYHJF, but am far from an expert.
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[Brooklynbomber]

speaking of tyhee, just had an order filled that had been out there a week about 30 secs after I posted that

those MM's will let your order die on the vine sometimes for a measly penny.....probably because they know which way it is going to move

 

[tiznow]

watch the homies here

they are leading the markets with a massive dead cat bounce

even in the face of the new home sales numbers that came out today

when they roll over that's probably the end to bear shake fun

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

husker, the govt is increasing the money supply by approx 15% per year now.

that is nothing less than outright theft. its the same as if they stole 15% of your and the rest of our cash in our wallet the past 12 months.

if you believe there is inflation (and the facts are there is plenty of inflation 10% + at least), cash is NOT where you want your savings/investments.

with ben bernanke in charge of the federal reserve and without a gold standard to limit the amount of money that can be created, inflation will be their way of doing things.

another example: lets say you have 100k in a savings account and thats your total life savings. if the govt decides to print a 10 million dollar check and hand it to every adult, is your 100k savings going to buy more or less goods and services after the govt gives every adult the $10,000,000 check?

hope this helps you understand.

 

[tiznow]

...

 

[tiznow]

a great selling opportunity coming up for all

take advatage while you can

i'm still holding out on my tradable portion of my shorts shooting for the 1400 S&P area to jump back in....might be getting a bit greedy....we shall see

 

[tiznow]

even the wealthy starting to cut back

AXP profits down

down a few bucks in AH

------------------------

NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) - American Express Co (AXP.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the credit card and travel services company, on Monday said fourth-quarter profit fell 10 percent, hurt by a charge to boost reserves for bad loans.

Net income for the fourth-largest U.S. credit card issuer fell to $831 million, or 71 cents per share, from $922 million, or 75 cents, a year earlier.

American Express had on Jan. 10 announced plans to take a $440 million charge, or $275 million after taxes, to boost loan loss reserves as U.S. consumer credit quality, particularly in California and Florida, showed signs of weakening.

That announcement alarmed investors who had thought American Express' wealthier cardholders might be less likely to feel financial pressure as the U.S. economy slowed. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; Editing by Gary Hill)

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

again for husker.

the govt has reasons to print as much money as it can get away with since its tricky for average citizens to understand what inflation is and/or its consequences.

in order for person to really know whether or not they have an annual + or - return, it should be measured vs the annual money supply increase (inflation).

thus, since the money supply increased last year 15%, if you made anything less than +15%, you actually lost money speaking in terms of purchasing power and real returns.

deflation should be viewed similarly, but with bernanke at fed and no gold standard we arent going to see net deflation.

regardless, lets say the money supply DECREASED 15%, if you made any + return, or had a negative return of less than -15%, you still gained speaking in terms of purchasing power and real returns.

15% is only a number for this example and it was approximately the money supply increase last year. it could be any # depending upon how much money the fed decides to create (print it or electronically distribute) or contract.

just because the fed last year increased the money supply 15% does not mean that prices of each item you buy is now equally 15% higher. some things are lower, but you can bet that more things have increased in price as a result of that 15% money supply increase.

you probably dont need me or anybody else to tell you that aggregate prices are higher now vs a year ago, a simple glance at your monthly living expenses will be enough evidence.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

vmw (vmware) being completely crushed after hours!

a few months ago, every joe blow on the street loved that one.

its down 50% since early november.

:missingte

 

[tiznow]

zran (dvd chip maker) not having much fun either down 20% in AH

pcl (timber) down a nudge on the commodity distributor front

16:18 PCL Plum Creek reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q1 below consensus (43.39 +1.75)

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.43 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.43; revenues rose 33.0% year/year to $504 mln vs the $414.7 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.26-0.31 vs. $0.34 consensus.