ope:
<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/znIxH2jz-8I&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/znIxH2jz-8I&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
markets flatline tues-fri
that 75 bp cut sure did the trick so far :think2:
i guess gold went from 882 to 905 on the week helped in that respect
oil down 13 cents on the week
dollar down 39 cents to 75.99 vs. other worthless fiat
dba which is corn, wheat, soybean, sugar down a nudge .55%
that 75 bp cut sure did the trick so far :think2:
i guess gold went from 882 to 905 on the week helped in that respect
oil down 13 cents on the week
dollar down 39 cents to 75.99 vs. other worthless fiat
dba which is corn, wheat, soybean, sugar down a nudge .55%
Coming to an American town near you
US mortgage crisis creates ghost town
The streets are empty. Trash rustles down the road past rusted barbecues, abandoned furniture, sagging homes and gardens turned to weed.
This is Shaker Heights, a suburb of Cleveland and a town ravaged by the subprime mortgage crisis roiling the United States.
Faded "for sale" signs sit in front of deserted houses. The residents are gone, either in search of new jobs after the factories shut down, or in shame after being evicted for missing their mortgage payments.
A red, white and blue American flag flies over windows and doors which have been boarded up to keep the drug dealers away.
Thieves have stripped many homes of the plumbing, the doors, the windows, the aluminum siding.
The police station parking lot is full. The officers, who have seen their numbers triple since 2006, are coming back from their rounds. They speak of installing alarms in some of the homes claimed by squatters.
At 9422 Chagrin Street, a hand-scrawled sign attached to a window indicates someone lives there: "Please Used."
After three rings of the bell, Sarah Evans, 60, opens the door with a mixture of curiosity and alarm.
She says she is one of the last people left on the street. And she is on the verge of losing this two-bedroom house in which she has lived for more than 30 years because she simply cannot afford her monthly payments.
It is a complicated story. She refinanced in 2003, but did not realize the document she signed included provisions to radically increase the interest rate.
She stopped making payments in 2006 and shows her unpaid bills totaling 24,000 dollars.
Her bank is in the midst of eviction procedures.
"When folks buy a home they expect to die in it, I guess," she said as she stood outside in the cold. "I had my American Dream but it became a nightmare."
Her words are echoed by the angry barks of the guard dogs pacing behind a chain link fence two houses away that was installed by the new owner: a bank.
The massive parking lot of the Eagle Fresh supermarket is empty.
Behind her till, Myra Bibldwit lifts her head when a bell signals the entrance of a customer.
"Not many folks come anymore. We're used to it," said the 24-year-old cashier, one of the few in the neighborhood who managed to hold onto her job.
In the five hours since she started working today she has served just 10 customers. "Maybe you will buy something," she says with a smile.
Then comes customer number 12.
Laura Johnston, 50, says that her street -- about 10 minutes away by car -- was alive two years ago. Today, half the houses are abandoned.
"Folks could not afford their payments. They were asked to pay loans which doubled. They could not afford it, some lost their job. Lenders were greedy. They threw them out of their homes," she told AFP.
"I'm very upset. I missed my friend Helen. She disappeared overnight. She did not even say goodbye."
There are plenty of cases like Helen. They are called the neighbors who disappear in the night.
For county treasurer Jim Rokakis, the greed of the banks is to blame for this man-made disaster.
"All you needed was a pulse to buy a house. Some loans were written with no money down, no proof of buyer's incomes. They did not even check what people were saying. Most of those folks were jobless," he said in an interview. note:this was all done by design! SD
"Shaker Heights was the perfect storm: poor folks, unemployed and a desire to get a piece of the American Dream."
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080127183107.ahcwfxrz&show_article=1
Housing prices are already down 15-25% in formerly hot areas. They will fall a min 40-60% in value not even factoring the collapsing USD.
If you want to survive the Greater Depression get out of debt, buy gold and silver, stock up on food, guns and ammo like your life depended on it because it will.
US mortgage crisis creates ghost town
The streets are empty. Trash rustles down the road past rusted barbecues, abandoned furniture, sagging homes and gardens turned to weed.
This is Shaker Heights, a suburb of Cleveland and a town ravaged by the subprime mortgage crisis roiling the United States.
Faded "for sale" signs sit in front of deserted houses. The residents are gone, either in search of new jobs after the factories shut down, or in shame after being evicted for missing their mortgage payments.
A red, white and blue American flag flies over windows and doors which have been boarded up to keep the drug dealers away.
Thieves have stripped many homes of the plumbing, the doors, the windows, the aluminum siding.
The police station parking lot is full. The officers, who have seen their numbers triple since 2006, are coming back from their rounds. They speak of installing alarms in some of the homes claimed by squatters.
At 9422 Chagrin Street, a hand-scrawled sign attached to a window indicates someone lives there: "Please Used."
After three rings of the bell, Sarah Evans, 60, opens the door with a mixture of curiosity and alarm.
She says she is one of the last people left on the street. And she is on the verge of losing this two-bedroom house in which she has lived for more than 30 years because she simply cannot afford her monthly payments.
It is a complicated story. She refinanced in 2003, but did not realize the document she signed included provisions to radically increase the interest rate.
She stopped making payments in 2006 and shows her unpaid bills totaling 24,000 dollars.
Her bank is in the midst of eviction procedures.
"When folks buy a home they expect to die in it, I guess," she said as she stood outside in the cold. "I had my American Dream but it became a nightmare."
Her words are echoed by the angry barks of the guard dogs pacing behind a chain link fence two houses away that was installed by the new owner: a bank.
The massive parking lot of the Eagle Fresh supermarket is empty.
Behind her till, Myra Bibldwit lifts her head when a bell signals the entrance of a customer.
"Not many folks come anymore. We're used to it," said the 24-year-old cashier, one of the few in the neighborhood who managed to hold onto her job.
In the five hours since she started working today she has served just 10 customers. "Maybe you will buy something," she says with a smile.
Then comes customer number 12.
Laura Johnston, 50, says that her street -- about 10 minutes away by car -- was alive two years ago. Today, half the houses are abandoned.
"Folks could not afford their payments. They were asked to pay loans which doubled. They could not afford it, some lost their job. Lenders were greedy. They threw them out of their homes," she told AFP.
"I'm very upset. I missed my friend Helen. She disappeared overnight. She did not even say goodbye."
There are plenty of cases like Helen. They are called the neighbors who disappear in the night.
For county treasurer Jim Rokakis, the greed of the banks is to blame for this man-made disaster.
"All you needed was a pulse to buy a house. Some loans were written with no money down, no proof of buyer's incomes. They did not even check what people were saying. Most of those folks were jobless," he said in an interview. note:this was all done by design! SD
"Shaker Heights was the perfect storm: poor folks, unemployed and a desire to get a piece of the American Dream."
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080127183107.ahcwfxrz&show_article=1
Housing prices are already down 15-25% in formerly hot areas. They will fall a min 40-60% in value not even factoring the collapsing USD.
If you want to survive the Greater Depression get out of debt, buy gold and silver, stock up on food, guns and ammo like your life depended on it because it will.
Okay, I gotta hop on this now.
Following JDog's advice, and listening/reading the website he suggested, plus following the smart folks in this thread, I'm looking to start a portfolio of the following:
25% metals
25% cash
10% GE stock
10% alt energy (haven't chosen the stock yet)
10% stocks made up of: DuPont, J&J, P&G, PepsiCo
10% uranium
10% oil
We are still sitting here at zero, haven't done anything yet but research. Based on your (combined) speculation of the markets over the next few weeks/months, where can we expect (hope?) to see good buying opportunities of the above?
My best guess right now is that Monday's SOU will give a false sense of hope to the markets, and that the Fed rate cuts should hold off the housing crash for a short period; the net effect of which will see a wee bear on metals (we're going with silver out of the gate) and oil, bulls in stocks. Sound about right or are we way off?
Also, a resounding THANK YOU! to those of you who will ultimately be responsible for us not living in the streets in a few years.
Following JDog's advice, and listening/reading the website he suggested, plus following the smart folks in this thread, I'm looking to start a portfolio of the following:
25% metals
25% cash
10% GE stock
10% alt energy (haven't chosen the stock yet)
10% stocks made up of: DuPont, J&J, P&G, PepsiCo
10% uranium
10% oil
We are still sitting here at zero, haven't done anything yet but research. Based on your (combined) speculation of the markets over the next few weeks/months, where can we expect (hope?) to see good buying opportunities of the above?
My best guess right now is that Monday's SOU will give a false sense of hope to the markets, and that the Fed rate cuts should hold off the housing crash for a short period; the net effect of which will see a wee bear on metals (we're going with silver out of the gate) and oil, bulls in stocks. Sound about right or are we way off?
Also, a resounding THANK YOU! to those of you who will ultimately be responsible for us not living in the streets in a few years.
you are on the long/buy side with everything
not a good move IMO
if i was against shorting i'd say that's probably a solid diversified portfolio in this environment
but i think you will get hurt pretty good (less than most) if equities get trashed which i believe is a solid possibility
not a good move IMO
if i was against shorting i'd say that's probably a solid diversified portfolio in this environment
but i think you will get hurt pretty good (less than most) if equities get trashed which i believe is a solid possibility
What would you do to correct the long/buy side problem?
Remember, too, we aren't in the US, have no US-dollar denominated assets, and that I no longer rely on US dollars for income.
Also, regarding equities, the only ones we're willing to consider are those that meet the following three criteria:
1. pay dividends
2. are invested in alt energy and/or necessities
3. are invested internationally
Remember, too, we aren't in the US, have no US-dollar denominated assets, and that I no longer rely on US dollars for income.
Also, regarding equities, the only ones we're willing to consider are those that meet the following three criteria:
1. pay dividends
2. are invested in alt energy and/or necessities
3. are invested internationally
well i'm younger so i can take on lots of risk
an easy way to bet against equities is using proshares
http://www.proshares.com/funds?products=98616&fundType=
these are very volitile and not for the faint of heart
me and jdog differ in our opinions as he thinks the markets will hold up just fine due to "print mania"
me on the other hand thinks they are out of bubbles and nobody willing or able to take on debt anymore so you could see deflation in most US assets (regardless of what the value of the dollar is doing vs. other currencies)
i think gold will hold up the best in this case, while i'm slightly bearish on other commodities due to my belief you will see demand side of the equation fall quite a bit
if markets hold up okay and we can continue to grow globally with 120 oil or whatever than that portfolio should turn out great (but i kinda doubt this to be the case)
an easy way to bet against equities is using proshares
http://www.proshares.com/funds?products=98616&fundType=
these are very volitile and not for the faint of heart
me and jdog differ in our opinions as he thinks the markets will hold up just fine due to "print mania"
me on the other hand thinks they are out of bubbles and nobody willing or able to take on debt anymore so you could see deflation in most US assets (regardless of what the value of the dollar is doing vs. other currencies)
i think gold will hold up the best in this case, while i'm slightly bearish on other commodities due to my belief you will see demand side of the equation fall quite a bit
if markets hold up okay and we can continue to grow globally with 120 oil or whatever than that portfolio should turn out great (but i kinda doubt this to be the case)
well shorting things (betting that they are going to go down) aren't going to fit that criteria so sounds like what you laid out looks pretty good
i personally think its a tad bit late to the commodity/alternate energy bull game overall (stuff like gold that doesn't depend on consumption like say copper and oil does will hold up better regardless of how it plays out from this point on) but maybe i'm wrong
gl :toast:
First of all, I'm still rather young too, thank you very much. 
(37 is still young, I hope)
Secondly, I agree that the print mania is far from over, and that the plan is to debase the currency to the point that debts can be paid. And, if Hillary gets elected, you'll see increased gov't spending (the war in Iraq pushing onward, to boot) and so the presses will have to keep chugging. At any rate, the vast numbers of US dollars that will end up back on your shores will provide more than enough liquidity to keep deflation at bay for a while.
I am predicting full-on stagflation by 2010, investing accordingly.
(37 is still young, I hope)Secondly, I agree that the print mania is far from over, and that the plan is to debase the currency to the point that debts can be paid. And, if Hillary gets elected, you'll see increased gov't spending (the war in Iraq pushing onward, to boot) and so the presses will have to keep chugging. At any rate, the vast numbers of US dollars that will end up back on your shores will provide more than enough liquidity to keep deflation at bay for a while.
I am predicting full-on stagflation by 2010, investing accordingly.
that looks good xpanda
FWIW I'm the same age
couple things to note:
GE is an alternative energy company themselves (nuclear, wind) - alot of the AE stocks are way over-priced (although they've come down a bit recently) - but GE is cheap
with your metal allocation, I would over-weight it to physical gold, as well as mid-size silver and gold mining producers. A company like BHP is a good way to have exposure to all the base metals, A bit pricey right now though. See if you can wrangle a few tid-bits from DAW, he is VERY knowledgable in the sector
guy who runs my managed account just bought Dupont for me, and also Pepsi and J&J one of his core holdings - all derive a substantial part of their income outside the US, and with the USD devalution, have an advantage over competitors.
you're underweight in oil IMHO - and no food.....
10% a lot to risk in Uranium as it is volatile - you may just time it right and hit a home-run though
may be wise to take a small short position if we see a nice 2-3 week rally soon - as a hedge.
FWIW I'm the same age
couple things to note:
GE is an alternative energy company themselves (nuclear, wind) - alot of the AE stocks are way over-priced (although they've come down a bit recently) - but GE is cheap
with your metal allocation, I would over-weight it to physical gold, as well as mid-size silver and gold mining producers. A company like BHP is a good way to have exposure to all the base metals, A bit pricey right now though. See if you can wrangle a few tid-bits from DAW, he is VERY knowledgable in the sector
guy who runs my managed account just bought Dupont for me, and also Pepsi and J&J one of his core holdings - all derive a substantial part of their income outside the US, and with the USD devalution, have an advantage over competitors.
you're underweight in oil IMHO - and no food.....
10% a lot to risk in Uranium as it is volatile - you may just time it right and hit a home-run though
may be wise to take a small short position if we see a nice 2-3 week rally soon - as a hedge.
i'd shy clear of base metals producers like the plague they are VERY consumer dependent
a US home holds 400 pounds of copper just as an example
plus base metals key consumption side is building in general, if US slows down regardless if china holds up or not
they won't be building much new capacity
but they might keep what capacity they already have going (aka still sucking same amount of oil)
during a slow down the base metal feel the crunch first
plus base metals aren't rare to begin with the markets the past 5 years have opened alot of mines worldwide due to increased demand
a US home holds 400 pounds of copper just as an example
plus base metals key consumption side is building in general, if US slows down regardless if china holds up or not
they won't be building much new capacity
but they might keep what capacity they already have going (aka still sucking same amount of oil)
during a slow down the base metal feel the crunch first
plus base metals aren't rare to begin with the markets the past 5 years have opened alot of mines worldwide due to increased demand
Jdog, tonights 60 minutes has a pretty interesting opening segment about the real estate crash.
You are a fawking real wise guy...only 37 and able to pull that real estate bait and switcheroooooooooooooooo.
Stockton, CA is the feature of the segment.
Front and center showing the amount of utter stupidity people thought about real estate.
Unfortunately, too many people still dont get it.
:drink:
You are a fawking real wise guy...only 37 and able to pull that real estate bait and switcheroooooooooooooooo.
Stockton, CA is the feature of the segment.
Front and center showing the amount of utter stupidity people thought about real estate.
Unfortunately, too many people still dont get it.
:drink:
