EZ credit and the massive boom/bust cycles it creates .. is the number 1 reason the US middle class will never be what it was again.. the middle class is being systematically eradicaticated
rich connected folk know how to manage the business cycles.. average joe six pack gets screwed..
give me control of the money supply.. and I care not who makes the laws - some Rothschild
And right now/the last 8 years the only way to reach economic normalcy due to past mistakes/ez credit is to keep digging further... raping savers and elderly with ZIRP policies.. and trying to get everybody to spend even more beyond their means and promote low rates of savings..
it will all catch up to us soon.. as the next bust phase plays out..
it will all catch up to us soon.. as the next bust phase plays out..
Consumer spending and disposable income turns negative in jan when adjusted for inflation
bubble on
stagflation looming? Nah... Donnie gonna wave his magic wand and magically the money fairy will appear..
---------
[h=1]U.S. Consumers Spend Less Than Forecast as Inflation Bites[/h]More stories by Sho Chandra
Pedestrians walk past the display window of a store in the Harlem neighborhood of New York.
Photographer: Craig Warga/BloombergConsumer spending rose less than projected in January as rising prices pinched Americans’ wallets, leading inflation-adjusted purchases to fall by the most since 2009.
The 0.2 percent advance in spending followed a 0.5 percent increase in the prior month, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.3 percent gain. Incomes rose 0.4 percent, though inflation-adjusted disposable incomes had the biggest drop since 2013.
The results indicate less momentum early in the year, and a pickup in inflation may further limit faster growth in household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. At the same time, the tight job market and low borrowing costs will continue to support consumers, whose confidence is getting a boost from optimism about lower taxes under President Donald Trump.
“It’s a more moderate start to this quarter coming off of a strong result in the fourth quarter,” said Tom Simons, an economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. “Increasing prices are going to put some pressure on spending. Wage growth hasn’t been so strong that consumers will accelerate spending in the face of rising inflation.”
Even so, “we’re still in a decent enough spot” despite the drop in inflation-adjusted purchases, he said.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer prices climbed 0.4 percent from December and 1.9 percent from a year earlier, just shy of its 2 percent target that was last met in April 2012. The core price measure, which excludes food and fuel, rose 0.3 percent from the prior month and was up 1.7 percent from January 2016.
The latest figures follow revised fourth-quarter data released Tuesday that showed consumer spending will remain the driver of this economic expansion. GDP rose at a 1.9 percent annualized rate, with consumption adding even more to growth than previously estimated while business investment and government outlays made a smaller contribution.
[h=3]Inflation Effect[/h]Adjusting consumer spending for inflation, which generates the figures used to calculate gross domestic product, purchases fell 0.3 percent after a 0.3 percent increase the previous month. The Commerce Department said it was the largest drop since September 2009, when the measure declined 1 percent.
Forecasts for January consumer spending ranged from increases of 0.2 percent to 0.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. The previous month’s reading was unrevised at a 0.5 percent gain.
The Bloomberg survey median for incomes was a 0.3 percent gain. December’s figure was unrevised at a 0.3 percent advance.
Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, decreased 0.2 percent after adjusting for inflation, breaking a more than three-year streak of monthly gains. It rose 0.1 percent in the prior month.
The saving rate increased to 5.5 percent from 5.4 percent. Wages and salaries rose 0.4 percent for a second month.
In January, household outlays on services fell 0.2 percent after adjusting for inflation. The category includes tourism, legal help, health care, and personal care items such as haircuts, and is typically difficult for the government to estimate accurately.
Purchases of durable goods, which include automobiles, also fell, decreasing 0.8 percent after adjusting for inflation. That’s the biggest drop since August and follows a 1.8 percent increase.
Central bankers, scheduled to meet March 14-15, are watching for signs that inflation is making progress toward the central bank’s 2 percent goal. On Tuesday, two influential Fed policy makers, William Dudley and John Williams, signaled a greater willingness to tighten monetary policy, perhaps as soon as this month.
bubble on
stagflation looming? Nah... Donnie gonna wave his magic wand and magically the money fairy will appear..
---------
[h=1]U.S. Consumers Spend Less Than Forecast as Inflation Bites[/h]More stories by Sho Chandra
- Adjusted for rising prices, purchases fall by most since 2009
- Incomes keep increasing, though price gains cut into wallets
Pedestrians walk past the display window of a store in the Harlem neighborhood of New York.
Photographer: Craig Warga/BloombergConsumer spending rose less than projected in January as rising prices pinched Americans’ wallets, leading inflation-adjusted purchases to fall by the most since 2009.
The 0.2 percent advance in spending followed a 0.5 percent increase in the prior month, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.3 percent gain. Incomes rose 0.4 percent, though inflation-adjusted disposable incomes had the biggest drop since 2013.
The results indicate less momentum early in the year, and a pickup in inflation may further limit faster growth in household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. At the same time, the tight job market and low borrowing costs will continue to support consumers, whose confidence is getting a boost from optimism about lower taxes under President Donald Trump.
“It’s a more moderate start to this quarter coming off of a strong result in the fourth quarter,” said Tom Simons, an economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. “Increasing prices are going to put some pressure on spending. Wage growth hasn’t been so strong that consumers will accelerate spending in the face of rising inflation.”
Even so, “we’re still in a decent enough spot” despite the drop in inflation-adjusted purchases, he said.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer prices climbed 0.4 percent from December and 1.9 percent from a year earlier, just shy of its 2 percent target that was last met in April 2012. The core price measure, which excludes food and fuel, rose 0.3 percent from the prior month and was up 1.7 percent from January 2016.
The latest figures follow revised fourth-quarter data released Tuesday that showed consumer spending will remain the driver of this economic expansion. GDP rose at a 1.9 percent annualized rate, with consumption adding even more to growth than previously estimated while business investment and government outlays made a smaller contribution.
[h=3]Inflation Effect[/h]Adjusting consumer spending for inflation, which generates the figures used to calculate gross domestic product, purchases fell 0.3 percent after a 0.3 percent increase the previous month. The Commerce Department said it was the largest drop since September 2009, when the measure declined 1 percent.
Forecasts for January consumer spending ranged from increases of 0.2 percent to 0.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. The previous month’s reading was unrevised at a 0.5 percent gain.
The Bloomberg survey median for incomes was a 0.3 percent gain. December’s figure was unrevised at a 0.3 percent advance.
Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, decreased 0.2 percent after adjusting for inflation, breaking a more than three-year streak of monthly gains. It rose 0.1 percent in the prior month.
The saving rate increased to 5.5 percent from 5.4 percent. Wages and salaries rose 0.4 percent for a second month.
In January, household outlays on services fell 0.2 percent after adjusting for inflation. The category includes tourism, legal help, health care, and personal care items such as haircuts, and is typically difficult for the government to estimate accurately.
Purchases of durable goods, which include automobiles, also fell, decreasing 0.8 percent after adjusting for inflation. That’s the biggest drop since August and follows a 1.8 percent increase.
Central bankers, scheduled to meet March 14-15, are watching for signs that inflation is making progress toward the central bank’s 2 percent goal. On Tuesday, two influential Fed policy makers, William Dudley and John Williams, signaled a greater willingness to tighten monetary policy, perhaps as soon as this month.
Maybe snap is the top of insanity signal?
--------
[h=1]Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs should ‘hang heads in shame’ over Snap IPO: Analyst[/h]2 March 2017
Top investment banks behind the Snap Inc public listing are being slammed for the lack of voting rights that investors in the stock will receive.
Snap Inc priced its initial public offering above its target range at $17 per share on Wednesday, valuing the company at $24 billion when staff stock and deal bonuses are included.
The holding company, which owns social media phenomenon Snapchat, will debut on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday but investors have bought shares with no voting power.
Stephen Isaacs, chairman of the investment committee at Alvine Capital, says the major investment banks behind Snap's public debut are pushing through an unusual move that takes liberties with investors' rights.
"Morgan Stanley and Goldman should hang their heads in shame here. I mean not about the valuation but non-voting shares?
"Isn't that the ultimate example of bubble trouble? So I say we are in a bubble, there is no value and investors should take a lot of risk off the table," he said Thursday.
Morgan Stanley declined to comment and Goldman Sachs was not immediately available to respond when contacted by CNBC via email.
Isaacs says the Snap Inc IPO could come to symbolize something bigger than just the deal itself as markets continue to bloat ever higher.
"There are two views; the Warren Buffett view is that he market isn't that expensive, the American economy is doing well and the long-term investor should always be engaged. And in the end he's done a pretty good job of managing other people's money.
"The other view which I'm afraid I agree with is that we are in a cycle, we are at the top of the cycle, valuations show absolutely no value and then Snap comes along," Isaacs said.
"Sometimes a deal at the top of the market can be something that crystallizes the insanity", he added.
On trailing numbers, investors are being asked to buy Snap Inc at a price over revenue multiple of around 60.
Neil Campling, Global Head of TMT Research at Northern Trust Capital Markets said Thursday that on a forward basis that figure falls to around 20, but worries remain.
Campling said user growth is slowing when it should be accelerating and that should concern investors.
The analyst added that trying to judge another key metric, the average revenue per user, is both "critical and highly difficult".
--------
[h=1]Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs should ‘hang heads in shame’ over Snap IPO: Analyst[/h]2 March 2017
Top investment banks behind the Snap Inc public listing are being slammed for the lack of voting rights that investors in the stock will receive.
Snap Inc priced its initial public offering above its target range at $17 per share on Wednesday, valuing the company at $24 billion when staff stock and deal bonuses are included.
The holding company, which owns social media phenomenon Snapchat, will debut on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday but investors have bought shares with no voting power.
Stephen Isaacs, chairman of the investment committee at Alvine Capital, says the major investment banks behind Snap's public debut are pushing through an unusual move that takes liberties with investors' rights.
"Morgan Stanley and Goldman should hang their heads in shame here. I mean not about the valuation but non-voting shares?
"Isn't that the ultimate example of bubble trouble? So I say we are in a bubble, there is no value and investors should take a lot of risk off the table," he said Thursday.
Morgan Stanley declined to comment and Goldman Sachs was not immediately available to respond when contacted by CNBC via email.
Isaacs says the Snap Inc IPO could come to symbolize something bigger than just the deal itself as markets continue to bloat ever higher.
"There are two views; the Warren Buffett view is that he market isn't that expensive, the American economy is doing well and the long-term investor should always be engaged. And in the end he's done a pretty good job of managing other people's money.
"The other view which I'm afraid I agree with is that we are in a cycle, we are at the top of the cycle, valuations show absolutely no value and then Snap comes along," Isaacs said.
"Sometimes a deal at the top of the market can be something that crystallizes the insanity", he added.
On trailing numbers, investors are being asked to buy Snap Inc at a price over revenue multiple of around 60.
Neil Campling, Global Head of TMT Research at Northern Trust Capital Markets said Thursday that on a forward basis that figure falls to around 20, but worries remain.
Campling said user growth is slowing when it should be accelerating and that should concern investors.
The analyst added that trying to judge another key metric, the average revenue per user, is both "critical and highly difficult".
Would be great if today the exact top to the madness with trump throwing this out there getting exited about his post speech rally..
maybe im completely off my rocker and trump will magically fix all.. but logic tells me a 50% type decline from these levels already baked in the cake ., just a matter of when then boom cycle ends and we head into bust phase.. Donnie has little to do with it and he can't do anything about it.. it's based on past policies mistakes.. but he will be the fall guy for it that's for sure! And with tweets like this he's asking for it.. lol
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Since November 8th, Election Day, the Stock Market has posted $3.2 trillion in GAINS and consumer confidence is at a 15 year high. Jobs!6:00 AM · Mar 2, 2017
maybe im completely off my rocker and trump will magically fix all.. but logic tells me a 50% type decline from these levels already baked in the cake ., just a matter of when then boom cycle ends and we head into bust phase.. Donnie has little to do with it and he can't do anything about it.. it's based on past policies mistakes.. but he will be the fall guy for it that's for sure! And with tweets like this he's asking for it.. lol
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Since November 8th, Election Day, the Stock Market has posted $3.2 trillion in GAINS and consumer confidence is at a 15 year high. Jobs!6:00 AM · Mar 2, 2017
Bitcoin tops gold for first time ever
For the first time, a unit of the digital cryptocurrency Bitcoin has exceeded the value of an ounce of gold.
It peaked at $1,265 on Tuesday while a troy ounce of gold stood at $1,233.
The current high is attributed to surging demand in China where authorities warn it is used to channel money out of the country.
The past months' surge is a major reversal for Bitcoin, which plummeted in value in 2014 after the largest exchange collapsed.
The value of Bitcoin has been volatile since it was first launched in 2009, and many experts have questioned whether the crypto-currency will last.
Earlier this year, Chinese authorities cracked down on Bitcoin trading in an attempt to stop money flowing out of the country illegally.
But the closer scrutiny from Beijing only briefly sent the currency lower. After it had soared to record highs in January, it has since picked its steady rise in value.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39149475
For the first time, a unit of the digital cryptocurrency Bitcoin has exceeded the value of an ounce of gold.
It peaked at $1,265 on Tuesday while a troy ounce of gold stood at $1,233.
The current high is attributed to surging demand in China where authorities warn it is used to channel money out of the country.
The past months' surge is a major reversal for Bitcoin, which plummeted in value in 2014 after the largest exchange collapsed.
The value of Bitcoin has been volatile since it was first launched in 2009, and many experts have questioned whether the crypto-currency will last.
Earlier this year, Chinese authorities cracked down on Bitcoin trading in an attempt to stop money flowing out of the country illegally.
But the closer scrutiny from Beijing only briefly sent the currency lower. After it had soared to record highs in January, it has since picked its steady rise in value.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39149475
Our VP used his private email to conduct business while governor (not illegal but...) and it was hacked... dude still using AOL lmfao.. wreckless as hell regardless of legality..
just keeps getting better
pence just has that evil dude look.. guy looks like stereotypical bad guy in movies..
they are all complete hypocrites all of um.. well most
rand tried to get a copy of Obamacare lite today taking on his own party who's got it under lock and key to try to ram it through.. I'm sure he will come out swinging on debt when the time comes too.. very few left.. one party system of corrupted liberals acting like they different.. few left fighting the good fight..
just keeps getting better
pence just has that evil dude look.. guy looks like stereotypical bad guy in movies..
they are all complete hypocrites all of um.. well most
rand tried to get a copy of Obamacare lite today taking on his own party who's got it under lock and key to try to ram it through.. I'm sure he will come out swinging on debt when the time comes too.. very few left.. one party system of corrupted liberals acting like they different.. few left fighting the good fight..
Stagflation starting to hit UK
central banksters behind the curve simply because they can't raise rates that much too much debt out there.. burden grows ..gov has to spend a lot more on interest payments..... so stagflation it will be till everything goes
up again and back to ZIRP we go..
--------
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's unexpectedly strong economic growth since last June's Brexit vote may be starting to fade as inflation picks up, according to a major business survey that chimed with notes of caution from several top companies.
Slowing consumer spending started to hurt services companies in February, an unpromising signal for the economy ahead of Britain's divorce with the European Union, Friday's Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed.
As finance minister Philip Hammond puts the final touches on his first annual budget on March 8, the survey is likely to reinforce his sense that Britain's strong growth since last year's vote to leave the EU will fade this year.
The services PMI fell to a five-month low of 53.3 from 54.5 in January and suggested the economy is now expanding at a quarterly pace of around 0.4 percent - much slower than the 0.7 percent expansion during the fourth quarter of 2016.
central banksters behind the curve simply because they can't raise rates that much too much debt out there.. burden grows ..gov has to spend a lot more on interest payments..... so stagflation it will be till everything goes
up again and back to ZIRP we go..--------
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's unexpectedly strong economic growth since last June's Brexit vote may be starting to fade as inflation picks up, according to a major business survey that chimed with notes of caution from several top companies.
Slowing consumer spending started to hurt services companies in February, an unpromising signal for the economy ahead of Britain's divorce with the European Union, Friday's Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed.
As finance minister Philip Hammond puts the final touches on his first annual budget on March 8, the survey is likely to reinforce his sense that Britain's strong growth since last year's vote to leave the EU will fade this year.
The services PMI fell to a five-month low of 53.3 from 54.5 in January and suggested the economy is now expanding at a quarterly pace of around 0.4 percent - much slower than the 0.7 percent expansion during the fourth quarter of 2016.
Robots robots robots..
evolve or die.. way of nature..
trumpy not gonna save you..
------------
[h=1]Rust Belt voters made Trump president. Now they want jobs[/h][h=2]Small biz CEO: There's a quiet depression going on[/h]DETROIT (CNNMoney) - The United States is making more things than ever before.
Yes, you read that right. Manufacturing output is at an all-time high, according to one government statistic (others indicate it's near a record).
Evidence of the boom is visible when you drive around America's muscle town: Detroit. The giant Ford, GM and Chrysler factories are buzzing to try to keep up with record levels of U.S. car sales. Yet a deep sense of unease is palpable in Michigan.
A lot of people are nervous. They see that U.S manufacturing has roared back, but the jobs -- especially $30-an-hour jobs -- have not. There's a huge debate about why these jobs disappeared: Some blame robots and machines for replacing humans; others say the jobs went to Mexico, China and beyond.
"There's kind of this quiet depression that's going on," says Matt Seely, the CEO of Quality Bending and Threading, a small manufacturing shop in Detroit. "People are OK, they're getting by, but no one's really in their happy place."
Donald Trump promised Michigan good jobs. It's a key reason why he won Michigan by 10,704 votes, the first Republican to carry the state since President George H. W. Bush in 1988. Now his supporters expect him to deliver.
"This is a manufacturing state. Like all of the states in the Rust Belt, these people are hurting. They want to work," Seely told CNNMoney.
In his first major address to Congress this week, Trump proclaimed that "dying industries will come roaring back to life." It's exactly what Seely wanted to hear.
[h=3]From 17 employees to 5[/h]Seely and his wife voted for Trump. They even volunteered on his campaign, the first time they ever felt motivated enough by a politician to do that. Seely, who wears a suit with a red pocket square, is a big believer in Trump's "Buy American" movement. He thinks U.S. manufacturing can -- and should -- be even stronger than it is now.
His own shop is profitable these days, but not like it used to be. In the late 1990s and early 2000, he had 17 employees and "the phone was ringing" with orders for the specialty steel products his team makes.
Now he's down to just five employees, a few of whom are college students. One is studying to be a dentist. To him, this machine job is temporary, not a place to build a career.
America has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000. Nearly 300,000 of those losses occurred in Michigan.
[h=3]'I didn't think it would get this bad'[/h]Half an hour north of Seely's shop lies Sterling Heights, a big Detroit suburb where Jim and Peggy Stewart live. The Stewarts know what it's like to scrape by. They lost their jobs and then their home in the Great Recession. In their 50s at the time with four kids at home, they set aside their pride and relied on food banks for the first time in their lives.
"I didn't think it was going to get this bad. I really didn't," Jim told CNNMoney. After working for 17 years in glass manufacturing, he found himself unemployed and competing against teens to cut grass for $10 an hour.
The Stewarts credit their church -- and their marriage -- for their ability to survive that period. Today, both have jobs again -- Jim at Ford and Peggy at a corporate security firm -- although the pay is less than they want.
Peggy voted twice for President Obama, but she went for Trump in 2016, largely because of the economy.
"I'm behind Trump because he has a spine," says Peggy, now 62. She makes $9 an hour, barely above Michigan's minimum wage. She had a similar job before the crisis. It paid $11 an hour.
In August, Trump visited Michigan and asked voters, "What do you have to lose by trying something new, like Trump?"
[h=3]In Michigan, many want Trump to go after NAFTA[/h]Unlike his wife, Jim wasn't convinced a billionaire like Trump (or millionaire like Clinton) would do anything for working Americans like their family. He tried to write in "Screwy Squirrel," an old cartoon character, on his presidential ballot.
Politicians "are fairly clueless as to what an average person's life is like," says Jim, now 55. One of their sons is in the Air Force. He just got word he'll be in the Middle East by April.
But there's one thing Jim really applauds Trump on so far: Getting the U.S. out of the TPP trade deal in Asia. Jim thinks trade deals like NAFTA have caused manufacturing jobs to disappear and wages to go down. CNNMoney heard that from just about everyone we met during a week of interviews in Michigan.
We "need to renegotiate NAFTA. That was Clinton and we got the stinky end of the stick on that one," says Jim. He likes his job at Ford, but he'll never earn more than about $20 because he was hired into a plant that cut a deal with the union to pay new hires there far below the $30 norm.
NAFTA, the deal with Mexico and Canada that allows goods from those countries to come into the U.S. tax free, went into effect in January 1994. U.S. manufacturing actually did well for much of the 1990s. But it's been a different story since 2000, the tipping point when manufacturing jobs began to disappear rapidly.
As manufacturing jobs declined, other sectors grew. Unemployment in Michigan has been 5% or less for the past year. It's the lowest level since 2001. But workers say there's one big problem: A lot of the jobs around now don't pay well. The Stewarts certainly feel that way. So does Angelica West.
[h=3]I gave up on manufacturing[/h]West grew up in a blue collar family in Lapeer, Michigan, a city about an hour from the U.S.-Canadian border. She admits she "got in the wrong crowd" in high school and never finished. She didn't worry about it at first. She just walked into a temp agency and landed a manufacturing job.
She worked at a GM parts plant and then on the assembly line of Lesley Elizabeth, a company that makes cooking oils and spices. She figured manufacturing would be her life.
But those jobs paid minimum wage -- barely above $8 an hour in her state.
"I was only bringing home $960 a month," the soft-spoken mom, now 28 and the mother of three young boys, told CNNMoney. "Daycare alone was almost $400 to enroll my kids in."
About a year ago, she moved back in with her mother and went back to school to get her GED through a state program. Her family also receives Medicaid to cover health care. She hopes to retrain to be a nurse.
West and her mother are Trump supporters. They see him as an "action president." They especially like what he's doing on trade and immigration.
"I'm not racist at all, but I do believe in building a border [wall] to protect our country," West says, referring to Trump's promise to construct a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border. "We can't even take care of our own people right now."
[h=3]Even union workers are worried[/h]Last week Trump promised, yet again, that his economic plans "will return significant manufacturing jobs to our country." He's gone as far as to vow to create 25 million jobs, the most of any president.
The jobs Trump supporters envision when he makes statements like that are the $30-an-hour auto worker jobs. CNNMoney sat down with several Ford workers in Detroit. They feel they've lived the American Dream, but even they are worried about the economy.
"I want my kids to have a future. I want my kids to have jobs," says Sal Moceri, a 61-year-old Ford factory worker and UAW member. All of his union brothers in the room nod in agreement.
There were 103,000 American UAW workers employed by Ford in 1994, the year NAFTA took effect, according to a UAW spokesman. Now there are just 56,000.
"Trump offered to bring these auto jobs back," says Frank Pitcher, 49, who hosted the interview in a large middle class home with a big-screen TV. "For me, it meant that many other Americans were going to get that same opportunity."
Moceri and Pitcher both voted twice for Obama. But in 2016, they went for Trump.
"I've been a long Democrat," says Moceri. But he felt "people needed a change."
Michigan swing voters like Moceri and Peggy Stewart feel Trump is already delivering on his jobs promise. They like what they see when companies like Carrier say they'll keep jobs in the U.S. But Moceri, an immigrant from Italy, was livid at Trump's refugee ban. Peggy Stewart thinks Trump's trying to do too much too fast.
"I hope it's not the biggest mistake of my life," Peggy Stewart said of her Trump vote. "Some of us are working too hard to fall back now."
-- CNNMoney's Richa Naik and Logan Whiteside contributed to this story.
evolve or die.. way of nature..
trumpy not gonna save you..
------------
[h=1]Rust Belt voters made Trump president. Now they want jobs[/h][h=2]Small biz CEO: There's a quiet depression going on[/h]DETROIT (CNNMoney) - The United States is making more things than ever before.
Yes, you read that right. Manufacturing output is at an all-time high, according to one government statistic (others indicate it's near a record).
Evidence of the boom is visible when you drive around America's muscle town: Detroit. The giant Ford, GM and Chrysler factories are buzzing to try to keep up with record levels of U.S. car sales. Yet a deep sense of unease is palpable in Michigan.
A lot of people are nervous. They see that U.S manufacturing has roared back, but the jobs -- especially $30-an-hour jobs -- have not. There's a huge debate about why these jobs disappeared: Some blame robots and machines for replacing humans; others say the jobs went to Mexico, China and beyond.
"There's kind of this quiet depression that's going on," says Matt Seely, the CEO of Quality Bending and Threading, a small manufacturing shop in Detroit. "People are OK, they're getting by, but no one's really in their happy place."
Donald Trump promised Michigan good jobs. It's a key reason why he won Michigan by 10,704 votes, the first Republican to carry the state since President George H. W. Bush in 1988. Now his supporters expect him to deliver.
"This is a manufacturing state. Like all of the states in the Rust Belt, these people are hurting. They want to work," Seely told CNNMoney.
In his first major address to Congress this week, Trump proclaimed that "dying industries will come roaring back to life." It's exactly what Seely wanted to hear.
[h=3]From 17 employees to 5[/h]Seely and his wife voted for Trump. They even volunteered on his campaign, the first time they ever felt motivated enough by a politician to do that. Seely, who wears a suit with a red pocket square, is a big believer in Trump's "Buy American" movement. He thinks U.S. manufacturing can -- and should -- be even stronger than it is now.
His own shop is profitable these days, but not like it used to be. In the late 1990s and early 2000, he had 17 employees and "the phone was ringing" with orders for the specialty steel products his team makes.
Now he's down to just five employees, a few of whom are college students. One is studying to be a dentist. To him, this machine job is temporary, not a place to build a career.
America has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000. Nearly 300,000 of those losses occurred in Michigan.
[h=3]'I didn't think it would get this bad'[/h]Half an hour north of Seely's shop lies Sterling Heights, a big Detroit suburb where Jim and Peggy Stewart live. The Stewarts know what it's like to scrape by. They lost their jobs and then their home in the Great Recession. In their 50s at the time with four kids at home, they set aside their pride and relied on food banks for the first time in their lives.
"I didn't think it was going to get this bad. I really didn't," Jim told CNNMoney. After working for 17 years in glass manufacturing, he found himself unemployed and competing against teens to cut grass for $10 an hour.
The Stewarts credit their church -- and their marriage -- for their ability to survive that period. Today, both have jobs again -- Jim at Ford and Peggy at a corporate security firm -- although the pay is less than they want.
Peggy voted twice for President Obama, but she went for Trump in 2016, largely because of the economy.
"I'm behind Trump because he has a spine," says Peggy, now 62. She makes $9 an hour, barely above Michigan's minimum wage. She had a similar job before the crisis. It paid $11 an hour.
In August, Trump visited Michigan and asked voters, "What do you have to lose by trying something new, like Trump?"
[h=3]In Michigan, many want Trump to go after NAFTA[/h]Unlike his wife, Jim wasn't convinced a billionaire like Trump (or millionaire like Clinton) would do anything for working Americans like their family. He tried to write in "Screwy Squirrel," an old cartoon character, on his presidential ballot.
Politicians "are fairly clueless as to what an average person's life is like," says Jim, now 55. One of their sons is in the Air Force. He just got word he'll be in the Middle East by April.
But there's one thing Jim really applauds Trump on so far: Getting the U.S. out of the TPP trade deal in Asia. Jim thinks trade deals like NAFTA have caused manufacturing jobs to disappear and wages to go down. CNNMoney heard that from just about everyone we met during a week of interviews in Michigan.
We "need to renegotiate NAFTA. That was Clinton and we got the stinky end of the stick on that one," says Jim. He likes his job at Ford, but he'll never earn more than about $20 because he was hired into a plant that cut a deal with the union to pay new hires there far below the $30 norm.
NAFTA, the deal with Mexico and Canada that allows goods from those countries to come into the U.S. tax free, went into effect in January 1994. U.S. manufacturing actually did well for much of the 1990s. But it's been a different story since 2000, the tipping point when manufacturing jobs began to disappear rapidly.
As manufacturing jobs declined, other sectors grew. Unemployment in Michigan has been 5% or less for the past year. It's the lowest level since 2001. But workers say there's one big problem: A lot of the jobs around now don't pay well. The Stewarts certainly feel that way. So does Angelica West.
[h=3]I gave up on manufacturing[/h]West grew up in a blue collar family in Lapeer, Michigan, a city about an hour from the U.S.-Canadian border. She admits she "got in the wrong crowd" in high school and never finished. She didn't worry about it at first. She just walked into a temp agency and landed a manufacturing job.
She worked at a GM parts plant and then on the assembly line of Lesley Elizabeth, a company that makes cooking oils and spices. She figured manufacturing would be her life.
But those jobs paid minimum wage -- barely above $8 an hour in her state.
"I was only bringing home $960 a month," the soft-spoken mom, now 28 and the mother of three young boys, told CNNMoney. "Daycare alone was almost $400 to enroll my kids in."
About a year ago, she moved back in with her mother and went back to school to get her GED through a state program. Her family also receives Medicaid to cover health care. She hopes to retrain to be a nurse.
West and her mother are Trump supporters. They see him as an "action president." They especially like what he's doing on trade and immigration.
"I'm not racist at all, but I do believe in building a border [wall] to protect our country," West says, referring to Trump's promise to construct a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border. "We can't even take care of our own people right now."
[h=3]Even union workers are worried[/h]Last week Trump promised, yet again, that his economic plans "will return significant manufacturing jobs to our country." He's gone as far as to vow to create 25 million jobs, the most of any president.
The jobs Trump supporters envision when he makes statements like that are the $30-an-hour auto worker jobs. CNNMoney sat down with several Ford workers in Detroit. They feel they've lived the American Dream, but even they are worried about the economy.
"I want my kids to have a future. I want my kids to have jobs," says Sal Moceri, a 61-year-old Ford factory worker and UAW member. All of his union brothers in the room nod in agreement.
There were 103,000 American UAW workers employed by Ford in 1994, the year NAFTA took effect, according to a UAW spokesman. Now there are just 56,000.
"Trump offered to bring these auto jobs back," says Frank Pitcher, 49, who hosted the interview in a large middle class home with a big-screen TV. "For me, it meant that many other Americans were going to get that same opportunity."
Moceri and Pitcher both voted twice for Obama. But in 2016, they went for Trump.
"I've been a long Democrat," says Moceri. But he felt "people needed a change."
Michigan swing voters like Moceri and Peggy Stewart feel Trump is already delivering on his jobs promise. They like what they see when companies like Carrier say they'll keep jobs in the U.S. But Moceri, an immigrant from Italy, was livid at Trump's refugee ban. Peggy Stewart thinks Trump's trying to do too much too fast.
"I hope it's not the biggest mistake of my life," Peggy Stewart said of her Trump vote. "Some of us are working too hard to fall back now."
-- CNNMoney's Richa Naik and Logan Whiteside contributed to this story.
Kroger yesterday .. Costco today..
to add to the list list of retailer woes.. we've reached the top of the cycle where everything starting to get cut throat and markets/competition saturated.. store closings for many retailers being announced lefts and right..
but who who gives a flying F .. I'm buying a huge pile of SNAP!!
to add to the list list of retailer woes.. we've reached the top of the cycle where everything starting to get cut throat and markets/competition saturated.. store closings for many retailers being announced lefts and right..
but who who gives a flying F .. I'm buying a huge pile of SNAP!!
[h=1]Here’s How Snap’s IPO Just Proved We’re In a Tech Bubble[/h]When investors reminisce about the height of the 1990s dot-com bubble, they often reference a now-iconic image of market euphoria, of taxi drivers turning into day traders and handing out stock tips to passengers. That's how you know—the saying goes—it's time to get out.
In 2017, the picture is apparently not so different, except now, of course, instead of cabbies we have Uber drivers, and people can buy stocks on a whim with the tap of a smartphone screen. They can even pick up shares of mega-hot stock Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, on the day of its IPO.
So when Snap stock popped 44% on its first day trading on Thursday (profits and shareholder rights be damned), telltale indications of a bubble were seemingly everywhere you looked—if you were looking.
But the clearest sign of the loftiness of our current atmosphere hit me that afternoon in the form of a video, which in just seven seconds, perfectly encapsulates a microcosm of the millennial-driven unicorn zeitgeist. Posted on Twitter (twtr, -0.06%) by the CEO of a Los Angeles startup, the brief clip features the entrepreneur in the back of an Uber. And the Uber driver tells the CEO he just bought one share of Snap (snap, +14.34%) for $25—on his phone, while he was driving:
You can imagine a world filled with self-driving cars where the idea of trading and driving is the least worrisome element of this scenario. And fortunately, the inefficiency of buying just a single share of a company is alleviated by the fact that the Uber driver used the brokerage startup Robinhood, which charges no trading commissions.
Still, the symbolic parallels to the dot-com era tech boom are undeniable. At a purchase price of $25 per Snap share, the Uber driver has already lost money—albeit less than $1. (Snap stock closed at $24.48 a share Thursday.) Robinhood, which has one million total users, says 43% of those who traded on Thursday bought Snap. The median age of those Snap investors: 26 years old, the same as Snap CEO Evan Spiegel.
While disappearing-photo app Snapchat may be most popular with millennials 25 and younger, it's hard to believe that such rookie investors would be equipped to successfully trade a stock like Snap, which has the richest valuation in tech IPO history.
In 2014, my colleague Adam Lashinsky, wrote of being convinced that we were in the midst of a tech bubble when the company Arista Networks (anet, +0.15%)called him—a full-time journalist—to directly offer him a slice of its impending IPO. Now, almost three years later, tech stocks are at all-time highs, Arista Networks stock has nearly tripled from its IPO price, and Lashinsky doesn't own any of it.
So even when evidence of frothiness mounts to the point where you're not sure if your head or the bubble will burst first, things have a way of getting even frothier. But lest we forget, we already know how this will end—we've seen it happen before.
In 2017, the picture is apparently not so different, except now, of course, instead of cabbies we have Uber drivers, and people can buy stocks on a whim with the tap of a smartphone screen. They can even pick up shares of mega-hot stock Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, on the day of its IPO.
So when Snap stock popped 44% on its first day trading on Thursday (profits and shareholder rights be damned), telltale indications of a bubble were seemingly everywhere you looked—if you were looking.
But the clearest sign of the loftiness of our current atmosphere hit me that afternoon in the form of a video, which in just seven seconds, perfectly encapsulates a microcosm of the millennial-driven unicorn zeitgeist. Posted on Twitter (twtr, -0.06%) by the CEO of a Los Angeles startup, the brief clip features the entrepreneur in the back of an Uber. And the Uber driver tells the CEO he just bought one share of Snap (snap, +14.34%) for $25—on his phone, while he was driving:
You can imagine a world filled with self-driving cars where the idea of trading and driving is the least worrisome element of this scenario. And fortunately, the inefficiency of buying just a single share of a company is alleviated by the fact that the Uber driver used the brokerage startup Robinhood, which charges no trading commissions.
Still, the symbolic parallels to the dot-com era tech boom are undeniable. At a purchase price of $25 per Snap share, the Uber driver has already lost money—albeit less than $1. (Snap stock closed at $24.48 a share Thursday.) Robinhood, which has one million total users, says 43% of those who traded on Thursday bought Snap. The median age of those Snap investors: 26 years old, the same as Snap CEO Evan Spiegel.
While disappearing-photo app Snapchat may be most popular with millennials 25 and younger, it's hard to believe that such rookie investors would be equipped to successfully trade a stock like Snap, which has the richest valuation in tech IPO history.
In 2014, my colleague Adam Lashinsky, wrote of being convinced that we were in the midst of a tech bubble when the company Arista Networks (anet, +0.15%)called him—a full-time journalist—to directly offer him a slice of its impending IPO. Now, almost three years later, tech stocks are at all-time highs, Arista Networks stock has nearly tripled from its IPO price, and Lashinsky doesn't own any of it.
So even when evidence of frothiness mounts to the point where you're not sure if your head or the bubble will burst first, things have a way of getting even frothier. But lest we forget, we already know how this will end—we've seen it happen before.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/D22E9B22-FF7C-11E6-AB63-2E992CB9A6D8
“Even though current valuation measures are not as extreme as in 1999, today’s economic underpinnings are not as robust as they were then,” he wrote. “Such perspective allows for a unique quantification, a comparison of valuations and economic activity, to show that today’s P/E ratio might be more overvalued than those observed in 1999.”
In this chart, Lebowitz stacks up the metrics from the years running up to the dot-com explosion versus what we’ve seen since 2012:
Lebowitz acknowledged, of course, that equity valuations back in 1999 were, as proven after the fact, “grossly elevated.”
But when put up against a backdrop of economic factors, he says those numbers appear to be relatively tame compared with today.
“Even though current valuation measures are not as extreme as in 1999, today’s economic underpinnings are not as robust as they were then,” he wrote. “Such perspective allows for a unique quantification, a comparison of valuations and economic activity, to show that today’s P/E ratio might be more overvalued than those observed in 1999.”
In this chart, Lebowitz stacks up the metrics from the years running up to the dot-com explosion versus what we’ve seen since 2012:
But when put up against a backdrop of economic factors, he says those numbers appear to be relatively tame compared with today.
Reversal candle on weekly setup on the major indices as snap soars higher...
hardest push for me on short side since back when everything blew up last time..
snap that ah ha moment I've been waiting for..
if they manage to take major indices to new highs ill run and cut back on my short position.
hardest push for me on short side since back when everything blew up last time..
snap that ah ha moment I've been waiting for..
if they manage to take major indices to new highs ill run and cut back on my short position.
Here we go, the one thing the Liberals can't stop... interest rate rises Go Trump Go ! -------------------------------- Traders see it as almost "inevitable" the US Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday after strong jobs growth. Markets which track investors' expectations for the key rate give a near 100% likelihood of a rise. It would be only the third time in a decade that the US central bank has increased rates. Analysts said the odds strengthened on Friday after figures showed better than expected jobs growth in February. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39235107
Big problem is once things blow up fed will still be pretty darn low on rates so little room to cut/support things..
Commercial real estate is a big bubble area that will pop once this next everything bubble due to QE/ZIRP too long burst.. fed already mentioned it themselves as a worry area.. retailers closing stores left and right as millenials spend less on clothing and accessories and more on experiences.. as well as the Amazon effect..
restaurant bubble too.. can't believe how much it cost to eat out now and so many damn places now too... big chunk of job growth last 8 years been crappy paying jobs in the bar/restaurant space..
Commercial real estate is a big bubble area that will pop once this next everything bubble due to QE/ZIRP too long burst.. fed already mentioned it themselves as a worry area.. retailers closing stores left and right as millenials spend less on clothing and accessories and more on experiences.. as well as the Amazon effect..
restaurant bubble too.. can't believe how much it cost to eat out now and so many damn places now too... big chunk of job growth last 8 years been crappy paying jobs in the bar/restaurant space..
