Before Ben played his last card we had plenty of hopium for more printing to save us
Now we got fed guys positioning themselves for the future when it inevitably fails
--------------
Plosser Says QE3 Risks Fed Credibility, Won’t Boost Jobs
By Jeff Kearns and Aki Ito
September 25, 2012 3:08 PM EDT
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Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said new bond buying announced by the Fed this month probably won’t boost growth or hiring and may jeopardize the central bank’s credibility.
“We are unlikely to see much benefit to growth or to employment from further asset purchases,” Plosser said in a speech today at the district bank in Philadelphia. “Conveying the idea that such action will have a substantive impact on labor markets and the speed of the recovery risks the Fed’s credibility.”
The Federal Open Market Committee said Sept. 13 that it will undertake a third round of quantitative easing by purchasing mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month until labor markets “improve substantially.” Policy makers are using unconventional tools to attack a jobless rate stuck above 8 percent since February 2009.
Economic research indicates that additional asset purchases are “unlikely to reduce long-term interest rates by a significant amount” and that lowering rates “by a few more basis points” won’t spur growth and hiring, said Plosser, who doesn’t have a vote on policy this year. The U.S. economy is growing “at a moderate pace” and probably will expand by about 3 percent in 2013 and 2014, he said.
Stocks and oil reversed earlier gains and turned lower as Plosser spoke. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,451.97 as of 2:45 p.m. in New York, after climbing as much as 0.4 percent. Crude oil for November delivery dropped 0.8 percent to $91.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as much as 1.2 percent earlier today.
“I opposed the Committee’s actions in September because I believe that increasing monetary policy accommodation is neither appropriate nor likely to be effective in the current environment,” Plosser said. “Every monetary policy action has costs and benefits, and my assessment is that the potential costs and risks associated with these actions outweigh the potential meager benefits.”
The FOMC also said this month it will probably hold the federal funds rate near zero at least through mid-2015. The Fed had forecast since January that rates will stay low at least through late 2014.
In addition, the Fed said on Sept. 13 “a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.” The S&P 500 rose to 1,465.77 on Sept. 14, the highest close since December 2007.
The Fed’s “hard-won credibility” is crucial because if the public doesn’t have confidence in policy makers, their ability to set effective monetary policy will be harmed, hurting households and businesses, Plosser said. If people believe the central bank will delay raising rates, they may “infer that the Fed is willing to tolerate considerably higher inflation,” spurring an increase in inflation expectations that would require a response from the FOMC, Plosser said.
“The Fed’s most recent actions carry with them significant risks,” Plosser said. “I am not forecasting that those risks will necessarily materialize and I hope they will not. But if they do, they could prove quite costly to the economy.”
Before announcing QE3 this month, the Fed expanded its balance sheet with two prior rounds of bond purchases. In the first, starting in 2008, the Fed bought $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, $175 billion of federal agency debt and $300 billion of Treasuries. In the second round, announced in November 2010, the Fed bought $600 billion of Treasuries.
Plosser said in response to audience questions that he’s “worried that the actions we are taking to make our balance sheet bigger entail risks and those risks could be quite substantial.”
The central bank may “be forced into selling assets in the open market” when it needs to reduce stimulus, he said. Policy makers “must be aware of the consequences,” from their decisions.
Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, who doesn’t vote on policy this year, endorsed additional easing on Sept. 20, saying interest rates may need to stay close to zero for four years to cut unemployment.
As long as inflation doesn’t exceed 2.25 percent, the Fed “should keep the fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5 percent,” he said in a speech. Last May he said borrowing costs may have to rise as soon as this year.
Plosser said today that central banks can’t effectively target employment levels the same way they can guide inflation rates because hiring also depends on variables unrelated to monetary policy, such as technology, education and tax rates.
“It doesn’t make sense to say that there is a particular unemployment rate that we can achieve,” Plosser told reporters after his speech. “The problem with the labor markets is there are many things that affect employment and unemployment that are beyond the control of the Fed.”
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who votes on the FOMC this year and was the only policy maker to dissent at the last meeting, said QE3 probably won’t do much to boost the labor market. “This is going to have a greater effect on inflation and a minimal impact on jobs,” Lacker said in a Sept. 15 interview on National Public Radio.
Similarly, Richard Fisher of Dallas, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year, opposed the third round of purchases, which he said led to an increase in market expectations for higher inflation without more job creation. “I do not see an overall argument for letting inflation rise to levels where we might scare the market,” Fisher said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
Plosser, 64, became president of the Philadelphia Fed in August 2006. He was previously dean of the graduate school of business administration at the University of Rochester in New York State. The Philadelphia Fed will next have a vote on policy decisions in 2014.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Kearns in Washington at jkearns3@bloomberg.net; Aki Ito in San Francisco at aito16@bloomberg.net
Now we got fed guys positioning themselves for the future when it inevitably fails
--------------
Plosser Says QE3 Risks Fed Credibility, Won’t Boost Jobs
By Jeff Kearns and Aki Ito
September 25, 2012 3:08 PM EDT
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Queue
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said new bond buying announced by the Fed this month probably won’t boost growth or hiring and may jeopardize the central bank’s credibility.
“We are unlikely to see much benefit to growth or to employment from further asset purchases,” Plosser said in a speech today at the district bank in Philadelphia. “Conveying the idea that such action will have a substantive impact on labor markets and the speed of the recovery risks the Fed’s credibility.”
The Federal Open Market Committee said Sept. 13 that it will undertake a third round of quantitative easing by purchasing mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month until labor markets “improve substantially.” Policy makers are using unconventional tools to attack a jobless rate stuck above 8 percent since February 2009.
Economic research indicates that additional asset purchases are “unlikely to reduce long-term interest rates by a significant amount” and that lowering rates “by a few more basis points” won’t spur growth and hiring, said Plosser, who doesn’t have a vote on policy this year. The U.S. economy is growing “at a moderate pace” and probably will expand by about 3 percent in 2013 and 2014, he said.
Stocks and oil reversed earlier gains and turned lower as Plosser spoke. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,451.97 as of 2:45 p.m. in New York, after climbing as much as 0.4 percent. Crude oil for November delivery dropped 0.8 percent to $91.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as much as 1.2 percent earlier today.
“I opposed the Committee’s actions in September because I believe that increasing monetary policy accommodation is neither appropriate nor likely to be effective in the current environment,” Plosser said. “Every monetary policy action has costs and benefits, and my assessment is that the potential costs and risks associated with these actions outweigh the potential meager benefits.”
The FOMC also said this month it will probably hold the federal funds rate near zero at least through mid-2015. The Fed had forecast since January that rates will stay low at least through late 2014.
In addition, the Fed said on Sept. 13 “a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.” The S&P 500 rose to 1,465.77 on Sept. 14, the highest close since December 2007.
The Fed’s “hard-won credibility” is crucial because if the public doesn’t have confidence in policy makers, their ability to set effective monetary policy will be harmed, hurting households and businesses, Plosser said. If people believe the central bank will delay raising rates, they may “infer that the Fed is willing to tolerate considerably higher inflation,” spurring an increase in inflation expectations that would require a response from the FOMC, Plosser said.
“The Fed’s most recent actions carry with them significant risks,” Plosser said. “I am not forecasting that those risks will necessarily materialize and I hope they will not. But if they do, they could prove quite costly to the economy.”
Before announcing QE3 this month, the Fed expanded its balance sheet with two prior rounds of bond purchases. In the first, starting in 2008, the Fed bought $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, $175 billion of federal agency debt and $300 billion of Treasuries. In the second round, announced in November 2010, the Fed bought $600 billion of Treasuries.
Plosser said in response to audience questions that he’s “worried that the actions we are taking to make our balance sheet bigger entail risks and those risks could be quite substantial.”
The central bank may “be forced into selling assets in the open market” when it needs to reduce stimulus, he said. Policy makers “must be aware of the consequences,” from their decisions.
Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, who doesn’t vote on policy this year, endorsed additional easing on Sept. 20, saying interest rates may need to stay close to zero for four years to cut unemployment.
As long as inflation doesn’t exceed 2.25 percent, the Fed “should keep the fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5 percent,” he said in a speech. Last May he said borrowing costs may have to rise as soon as this year.
Plosser said today that central banks can’t effectively target employment levels the same way they can guide inflation rates because hiring also depends on variables unrelated to monetary policy, such as technology, education and tax rates.
“It doesn’t make sense to say that there is a particular unemployment rate that we can achieve,” Plosser told reporters after his speech. “The problem with the labor markets is there are many things that affect employment and unemployment that are beyond the control of the Fed.”
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who votes on the FOMC this year and was the only policy maker to dissent at the last meeting, said QE3 probably won’t do much to boost the labor market. “This is going to have a greater effect on inflation and a minimal impact on jobs,” Lacker said in a Sept. 15 interview on National Public Radio.
Similarly, Richard Fisher of Dallas, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year, opposed the third round of purchases, which he said led to an increase in market expectations for higher inflation without more job creation. “I do not see an overall argument for letting inflation rise to levels where we might scare the market,” Fisher said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
Plosser, 64, became president of the Philadelphia Fed in August 2006. He was previously dean of the graduate school of business administration at the University of Rochester in New York State. The Philadelphia Fed will next have a vote on policy decisions in 2014.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Kearns in Washington at jkearns3@bloomberg.net; Aki Ito in San Francisco at aito16@bloomberg.net
Ben The Printer has to keep yields low so his buddy Tim Geithner can rollover government debts at cheaper rates, we're a huge mess fiscally, and I doubt the DC crooks would do anything to fix it. Bernanke has no choice but pulling the Japanese playbook, if it means to flush millions of saving accts down the toilet in the process then so be it. The ends justify the means.
God Bless Amerika.
God Bless Amerika.
China data continues to sour
Printers hopeless if the only real growth engine out there Asia continues to tumble ...
We'll see if china is eventually dumb enough to go to the hyper stimulus well building low quality bridges to nowhere creating even more long term problems
Printers hopeless if the only real growth engine out there Asia continues to tumble ...
We'll see if china is eventually dumb enough to go to the hyper stimulus well building low quality bridges to nowhere creating even more long term problems
Becoming clearer by the day that the only way out for the status quo crony capitalist (favors rich screws the poor) whores is WW3 .... Like was the case back when the last global depression hit with WW2 ...
------
We're heading back to the 1930s buddy
Already told ya
WW2 was a speedbump in the natural evolution of society and you saw the good times
In 20 years a youngster won't have a CLUE what you're talking about and will reckon that you're just a babbling old eejit
On the plus side
The little guy in the West has never been so well educated or had such easy access to so many resources like computers and the internet
Get out there and focus on saving your family
------
We're heading back to the 1930s buddy
Already told ya
WW2 was a speedbump in the natural evolution of society and you saw the good times
In 20 years a youngster won't have a CLUE what you're talking about and will reckon that you're just a babbling old eejit
On the plus side
The little guy in the West has never been so well educated or had such easy access to so many resources like computers and the internet
Get out there and focus on saving your family
China, Russia, Muslim nations vs Japan, India, "the west"
Japan totally screwed on their worthless rock in the ocean as they were last time ... China/Japan tensions starting to heat up
Bottom line almost every nation worldwide has huge internal problems simmering and getting worse by the day .... The best way to distract to populace of those problems is create an external enemy and also you get the "stimulus" of war spending ...
Guest Post: The Global Spring
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/01/2012 20:09 -0400
Apple China Corruption Demographics Fail Global Economy Greece Guest Post Japan Middle East New York Times Obama Administration Reuters Twitter
Submitted by Michael Krieger of Libery Blitzkrieg blog,
My hands are tied
The billions shift from side to side
And the wars go on with brainwashed pride
For the love of god and our human rights
And all these things are swept aside
By bloody hands time can’t deny
And are washed away by your genocide
And history hides the lies of our civil wars
D’you wear a black armband
When they shot the man
Who said “peace could last forever”
And in my first memories
They shot Kennedy
I went numb when I learned to see
So I never fell for Vietnam
We got the wall of D.C. to remind us all
That you can’t trust freedom
When it’s not in your hands
When everybody’s fightin’
For their promised land
And
I don’t need your civil war
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor
Your power hungry sellin’ soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain’t that fresh
I don’t need your civil war
- Guns and Roses “Civil War”
The Tipping Point
Serfdom has simply been pushed too far.* Globally.* What we are about to witness, incredibly, is not just a change in the way that one or two countries or even a specific region of the world operates.* No, what we are about to witness is a complete transformation globally, a change that I believe will be incredibly positive and will ultimately free us from the shackles upon the minds of humanity as a species.* The internet has allowed us to connect with one another in a manner never before possible, and this tool has permitted us to blast through the lies of the global elite that is desperately trying to hang on to control.* Whether it was the intention from the outset or not, what globalization has created is a very small class of incredibly wealthy people that are extraordinarily corrupt as a group and also above the law.* They are able to hide enormous amounts of money.* They are able to insider trade.* They are able to deal drugs.* They can do whatever they want, yet if anyone below them does the same they are prosecuted in a manner that resembles Medieval torture.
Many people say to me, “but Mike, aren’t things always corrupt, hasn’t it always been this way?”* To this I answer yes and no.* Of course within any complex societal and political structure there will be elements of corruption.* This is obvious.* However, there are cycles of corruption and degrees.* At some point, particularly toward the end of a cycle where globalization creates this “super corrupt class” of individuals roaming the planet doing as they please with us pawns, you reach a tipping point.* That tipping point has already been reached.* What we are witnessing now all over the world are merely the effects of that tipping point clashing with the corrupt global elite that refuses to budge an inch and reform even though it is in their best interest to do so.* No, they are so arrogant and criminal after decades of doing what they please with zero consequences they would rather attempt to implement a global police state rather than deal with the nightmare of their actions and make the world a better place.* Therefore, it is up to us, as a species, to reclaim what is our birthright.* Freedom.
As I wrote the other day on twitter, what we have today is not Socialism or Capitalism, it is Ponzism.* I am talking on a global level.* Basically every country and every region.* The biggest pitfall we must avoid as a species is allowing the global power structure to pit us against one another.* These guys don’t fight wars, they send you to fight them.* Don’t fall for it.* Their number one trick once things get bad within their own nations is to attempt to create a war.* This checks two very important boxes for them.* First, it creates a distraction for the general public and even makes them think that they are part of a team that needs to be cheered.* It’s like a big football game but with thousands or millions dying on the field.* Second, it allows the government to do pretty much anything they want in the name of “winning the war” or “national security.”* This is exactly why the “war on terror” was the perfect war for a kleptocratic elite.* It is a war with no end, so theoretically they can constantly claim war as an excuse for taking away civil liberties.* The problem for them at the moment though is that the American people are waking up to this scam.* Therefore, a larger and much deadlier war is in their best interests.* If it is in their best interest you can be sure it is in our worse interests. Therefore, we must do everything we can to prevent it.
*
The Global Spring *
When the “Arab Spring” broke out early last year, many simply took it to be an outburst of rage and frustration from a region that has been shackled by autocratic regimes, lack of economic opportunity and cultural stagnation.* While it was the surge in global food prices that catalyzed the event that we now refer to as the Arab Spring, what I think was under appreciated and continues to be, is that fact that this was merely the first major outburst in what is certain to be a Global Spring.* The world’s population centers in general are increasingly able to identify with the frustration of those in the Middle East, so far removed from our psyches just a decade or so ago.* The most important thing for us all to realize is that there is another way.* We have infinite potential as a species to create, innovate and evolve.* We just need to collectively remove the gigantic jackboot from our face.
The number of events happening at the moment that provide evidence of the emerging Global Spring are almost too many to keep track of, but in the following paragraphs I will try.* I assume that most everyone reading this piece is aware of these events, but what I am trying to do is explain my thesis that all of them are essentially related to the same theme.**A massive global uprising against the current status quo and the economic and political systems that it has put in place.* People are becoming increasingly aware that these systems are run by the few and for the few, and the boiling point is being reached.* Community by community and nation by nation.* Let’s start with China.
*
China
Unless you have been living under an economic rock for the past six months, you are aware that China is in the midst of a serious economic slowdown.* As I have said for years and continue to say, this is not a small bump in the road.* This is a major contraction.* Similar to the U.S., China had a choice in the 2008 slowdown.* They could have taken the hit and moved toward measures to rebalance the economy away from an over emphasis on investment and construction spend and toward consumption, but they did nothing of the sort.* Rather, they doubled down on their prior mistakes and mal-investments in an epic bet on the ponzi economy.* After a brief sugar high, this has now failed.
So with the economy back in steep decline, the authorities fear pumping massive stimulus in as they did four years prior due to their justifiable fears of sparking rampant inflation.* Meanwhile, thanks to social networking, citizens have become more aware of the incredible corruption and theft of their leadership, whether in the political or business world.* They are increasingly acting out about it and it is becoming so blatant that even China’s legendary control of media is unable to direct the plot.* The most recent outburst came from the Foxconn (a major supplier to Apple) factory in Taiyuan, China which employs 79,000 people.* While details are sketchy, most accounts point to the riot, which reportedly involved 2,000 people, being sparked by a fight between security guards and workers.* From the Washington Post:
When guards beat up workers from Shandong province, others from the same region fought back, igniting a full-fledged riot, according to the news agency’s (China News Service) account. *
*
The young migrant workers whose labor has fueled much of the growth of China’s economy and the global manufacturing sector have begun to change in demographics and desires. That labor pool is shrinking, according to experts, as workers from China’s provinces have become better educated and hold higher expectations for their lives.
*
Foxconn, in particular, has drawn attention in recent years because of its connection to Apple and the increasingly visible signs of unhappiness among its workers. A string of employee suicides in 2010 pushed the company to install netting to catch jumpers and take other steps.
Anyone think this is an isolated event?* Didn’t think so.* While this is the most high profile riot as of late, the New York Times in its coverage of the incident wrote:
Many of the protests this year appear to be related to the country’s economic slowdown, as employees demand the payment of overdue wages from financially struggling companies, or insist on compensation when money-losing factories in coastal provinces are closed and moved to lower-cost cities in the interior.*
Of course, China’s leadership was well aware of all of this before the Foxconn incident came onto the scene, so what is a good authoritarian regime to do?* Well, you attempt to direct the rage and angst to an outside enemy.* In this case Japan.* Zerohedge has a great report on the anti-Japanese violence and hatred that burst onto the scene recently.* The link to their piece Postcards from a Furious China really says it all.
*
Europe
Like the Middle East, the Southern countries of Europe have been in and out of rage now for almost two years.* The most recent explosions onto the streets of Greece and Spain are particularly disturbing since the inept clownish leadership on the Continent had supposedly “solved” the crisis for the third time just a few weeks ago.* Or was it the fourth time?* Really, who’s counting anymore…
Let’s start with Spain.* While Greece is still on fire, Spain is where the real action is due to the size of its economy and the importance it has to the political EU hacks.* Not only were there enormous protests this week in the capital Madrid in reaction to austerity measures, but there is also a very significant secession movement picking up steam in Catalonia.* This isn’t about leaving the euro, this is about leaving Spain!* For those that aren’t aware of Spanish geography, Catalonia is the wealthiest region in Spain and it is where Barcelona is located.* First, we saw enormous protests in Catalonia about a month ago, which I covered here.* Now we see that last night the regional parliament approved a referendum on independence that will apparently be voted on during regional elections on November 25.* Reuters covers the story here.
While this is hugely important, let’s not overlook the massive demonstrations in Madrid this past week.* I will let this powerful video below do the talking.* Draghi says “the euro is irreversible.”* Don’t make me laugh.
*
*
Now let’s talk Greece.* I think a lot of people brushed off this week’s protests as “oh it’s just the Greeks in the streets again.”* This is a mistake.* These demonstrations were different and here is why.* From the UK’s Guardian:
In a departure from other mass protests, members of the police force, army, navy and judicial system joined public and private sector employees on the streets. One police officer, who preferred not to give his name, said the Greek state “should feel deep shame” at imposing cuts on the very people whose protection it sought.
Once the people that are being paid to defend the regime start opposing the regime it is game over.* It appears we are there in Greece.* Full article here.
*
The Middle East
I’m not going to spend too much time on this region since it is already so dominant in the news.* That said, if you think that the incident in Benghazi where U.S. ambassador Stevens was murdered and the huge protests that just took place in Pakistan are related to some crappy hate video, rather than us dropping drone bombs on their heads every day and intervening militarily in their countries consistently, you need to turn off the T.V. for a couple of hours.* Pretty much all political structures in the Middle East will be rapidly transformed within the next five years in my opinion, and while the U.S. will attempt to insert its own puppets in power, this strategy will not be successful.* The petro-dollar is indeed in its last days whether we like it or not.
*
The United States
This is the big one of course.* While we have seen outbursts from the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements ever since the banker coup of 2008, these movements have not been as sustained as demonstrations in other parts of the world.* This is about to change.* I am firmly of the view that the Obama Administration has pulled out every* trick in the book in order to get reelected this year, and that this strategy will probably succeed.* What I think the vast majority of people voting for him as well as investors fail to comprehend is that once this guy gets in and doesn’t need to worry about getting reelected he will leave everyone outside of his puppet masters out in the cold.* You think he has been bad for the poor and middle class so far via his inflationary policies?* Well you haven’t seen anything yet.* I believe there is a decent chance he will push “austerity” on the public as soon as he is reelected.* All the suckers that voted for him will be up in arms and the only ones that will be protected, as usual, will be the crony capitalists that own him.* Even if he doesn’t do this, his other option is merely to keep spending and force The Bernank to print more money.* The cost of living will surge and the poor and middle class will get crushed no matter what.* I covered this in my recent piece “2013: When Money Printing Meets Supply Constraints.”* The American Spring will get going in 2013.
*
Just Say No…to War
The writing is on the wall folks.* The global economy is headed back down into depths that will prove worse than 2008, and this time no amount of money printing and propaganda will be enough to hold things together.* TPTB know this.* We need to remember that this isn’t just a battle between the masses within our distinct nations and the 0.01% of oligarchs that have used the past four years to harvest more of our wealth.* This is also a battle between humans collectively and themselves.* We need to grow up as a species and take charge of our destiny.* We need to stop falling for their tricks and fighting their stupid wars while they hide in their castles, parliaments and skyscrapers.* The first thing we need to do is say no.* No more.* It’s time to evolve.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/01/2012 20:09 -0400
Apple China Corruption Demographics Fail Global Economy Greece Guest Post Japan Middle East New York Times Obama Administration Reuters Twitter
Submitted by Michael Krieger of Libery Blitzkrieg blog,
My hands are tied
The billions shift from side to side
And the wars go on with brainwashed pride
For the love of god and our human rights
And all these things are swept aside
By bloody hands time can’t deny
And are washed away by your genocide
And history hides the lies of our civil wars
D’you wear a black armband
When they shot the man
Who said “peace could last forever”
And in my first memories
They shot Kennedy
I went numb when I learned to see
So I never fell for Vietnam
We got the wall of D.C. to remind us all
That you can’t trust freedom
When it’s not in your hands
When everybody’s fightin’
For their promised land
And
I don’t need your civil war
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor
Your power hungry sellin’ soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain’t that fresh
I don’t need your civil war
- Guns and Roses “Civil War”
The Tipping Point
Serfdom has simply been pushed too far.* Globally.* What we are about to witness, incredibly, is not just a change in the way that one or two countries or even a specific region of the world operates.* No, what we are about to witness is a complete transformation globally, a change that I believe will be incredibly positive and will ultimately free us from the shackles upon the minds of humanity as a species.* The internet has allowed us to connect with one another in a manner never before possible, and this tool has permitted us to blast through the lies of the global elite that is desperately trying to hang on to control.* Whether it was the intention from the outset or not, what globalization has created is a very small class of incredibly wealthy people that are extraordinarily corrupt as a group and also above the law.* They are able to hide enormous amounts of money.* They are able to insider trade.* They are able to deal drugs.* They can do whatever they want, yet if anyone below them does the same they are prosecuted in a manner that resembles Medieval torture.
Many people say to me, “but Mike, aren’t things always corrupt, hasn’t it always been this way?”* To this I answer yes and no.* Of course within any complex societal and political structure there will be elements of corruption.* This is obvious.* However, there are cycles of corruption and degrees.* At some point, particularly toward the end of a cycle where globalization creates this “super corrupt class” of individuals roaming the planet doing as they please with us pawns, you reach a tipping point.* That tipping point has already been reached.* What we are witnessing now all over the world are merely the effects of that tipping point clashing with the corrupt global elite that refuses to budge an inch and reform even though it is in their best interest to do so.* No, they are so arrogant and criminal after decades of doing what they please with zero consequences they would rather attempt to implement a global police state rather than deal with the nightmare of their actions and make the world a better place.* Therefore, it is up to us, as a species, to reclaim what is our birthright.* Freedom.
As I wrote the other day on twitter, what we have today is not Socialism or Capitalism, it is Ponzism.* I am talking on a global level.* Basically every country and every region.* The biggest pitfall we must avoid as a species is allowing the global power structure to pit us against one another.* These guys don’t fight wars, they send you to fight them.* Don’t fall for it.* Their number one trick once things get bad within their own nations is to attempt to create a war.* This checks two very important boxes for them.* First, it creates a distraction for the general public and even makes them think that they are part of a team that needs to be cheered.* It’s like a big football game but with thousands or millions dying on the field.* Second, it allows the government to do pretty much anything they want in the name of “winning the war” or “national security.”* This is exactly why the “war on terror” was the perfect war for a kleptocratic elite.* It is a war with no end, so theoretically they can constantly claim war as an excuse for taking away civil liberties.* The problem for them at the moment though is that the American people are waking up to this scam.* Therefore, a larger and much deadlier war is in their best interests.* If it is in their best interest you can be sure it is in our worse interests. Therefore, we must do everything we can to prevent it.
*
The Global Spring *
When the “Arab Spring” broke out early last year, many simply took it to be an outburst of rage and frustration from a region that has been shackled by autocratic regimes, lack of economic opportunity and cultural stagnation.* While it was the surge in global food prices that catalyzed the event that we now refer to as the Arab Spring, what I think was under appreciated and continues to be, is that fact that this was merely the first major outburst in what is certain to be a Global Spring.* The world’s population centers in general are increasingly able to identify with the frustration of those in the Middle East, so far removed from our psyches just a decade or so ago.* The most important thing for us all to realize is that there is another way.* We have infinite potential as a species to create, innovate and evolve.* We just need to collectively remove the gigantic jackboot from our face.
The number of events happening at the moment that provide evidence of the emerging Global Spring are almost too many to keep track of, but in the following paragraphs I will try.* I assume that most everyone reading this piece is aware of these events, but what I am trying to do is explain my thesis that all of them are essentially related to the same theme.**A massive global uprising against the current status quo and the economic and political systems that it has put in place.* People are becoming increasingly aware that these systems are run by the few and for the few, and the boiling point is being reached.* Community by community and nation by nation.* Let’s start with China.
*
China
Unless you have been living under an economic rock for the past six months, you are aware that China is in the midst of a serious economic slowdown.* As I have said for years and continue to say, this is not a small bump in the road.* This is a major contraction.* Similar to the U.S., China had a choice in the 2008 slowdown.* They could have taken the hit and moved toward measures to rebalance the economy away from an over emphasis on investment and construction spend and toward consumption, but they did nothing of the sort.* Rather, they doubled down on their prior mistakes and mal-investments in an epic bet on the ponzi economy.* After a brief sugar high, this has now failed.
So with the economy back in steep decline, the authorities fear pumping massive stimulus in as they did four years prior due to their justifiable fears of sparking rampant inflation.* Meanwhile, thanks to social networking, citizens have become more aware of the incredible corruption and theft of their leadership, whether in the political or business world.* They are increasingly acting out about it and it is becoming so blatant that even China’s legendary control of media is unable to direct the plot.* The most recent outburst came from the Foxconn (a major supplier to Apple) factory in Taiyuan, China which employs 79,000 people.* While details are sketchy, most accounts point to the riot, which reportedly involved 2,000 people, being sparked by a fight between security guards and workers.* From the Washington Post:
When guards beat up workers from Shandong province, others from the same region fought back, igniting a full-fledged riot, according to the news agency’s (China News Service) account. *
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The young migrant workers whose labor has fueled much of the growth of China’s economy and the global manufacturing sector have begun to change in demographics and desires. That labor pool is shrinking, according to experts, as workers from China’s provinces have become better educated and hold higher expectations for their lives.
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Foxconn, in particular, has drawn attention in recent years because of its connection to Apple and the increasingly visible signs of unhappiness among its workers. A string of employee suicides in 2010 pushed the company to install netting to catch jumpers and take other steps.
Anyone think this is an isolated event?* Didn’t think so.* While this is the most high profile riot as of late, the New York Times in its coverage of the incident wrote:
Many of the protests this year appear to be related to the country’s economic slowdown, as employees demand the payment of overdue wages from financially struggling companies, or insist on compensation when money-losing factories in coastal provinces are closed and moved to lower-cost cities in the interior.*
Of course, China’s leadership was well aware of all of this before the Foxconn incident came onto the scene, so what is a good authoritarian regime to do?* Well, you attempt to direct the rage and angst to an outside enemy.* In this case Japan.* Zerohedge has a great report on the anti-Japanese violence and hatred that burst onto the scene recently.* The link to their piece Postcards from a Furious China really says it all.
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Europe
Like the Middle East, the Southern countries of Europe have been in and out of rage now for almost two years.* The most recent explosions onto the streets of Greece and Spain are particularly disturbing since the inept clownish leadership on the Continent had supposedly “solved” the crisis for the third time just a few weeks ago.* Or was it the fourth time?* Really, who’s counting anymore…
Let’s start with Spain.* While Greece is still on fire, Spain is where the real action is due to the size of its economy and the importance it has to the political EU hacks.* Not only were there enormous protests this week in the capital Madrid in reaction to austerity measures, but there is also a very significant secession movement picking up steam in Catalonia.* This isn’t about leaving the euro, this is about leaving Spain!* For those that aren’t aware of Spanish geography, Catalonia is the wealthiest region in Spain and it is where Barcelona is located.* First, we saw enormous protests in Catalonia about a month ago, which I covered here.* Now we see that last night the regional parliament approved a referendum on independence that will apparently be voted on during regional elections on November 25.* Reuters covers the story here.
While this is hugely important, let’s not overlook the massive demonstrations in Madrid this past week.* I will let this powerful video below do the talking.* Draghi says “the euro is irreversible.”* Don’t make me laugh.
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Now let’s talk Greece.* I think a lot of people brushed off this week’s protests as “oh it’s just the Greeks in the streets again.”* This is a mistake.* These demonstrations were different and here is why.* From the UK’s Guardian:
In a departure from other mass protests, members of the police force, army, navy and judicial system joined public and private sector employees on the streets. One police officer, who preferred not to give his name, said the Greek state “should feel deep shame” at imposing cuts on the very people whose protection it sought.
Once the people that are being paid to defend the regime start opposing the regime it is game over.* It appears we are there in Greece.* Full article here.
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The Middle East
I’m not going to spend too much time on this region since it is already so dominant in the news.* That said, if you think that the incident in Benghazi where U.S. ambassador Stevens was murdered and the huge protests that just took place in Pakistan are related to some crappy hate video, rather than us dropping drone bombs on their heads every day and intervening militarily in their countries consistently, you need to turn off the T.V. for a couple of hours.* Pretty much all political structures in the Middle East will be rapidly transformed within the next five years in my opinion, and while the U.S. will attempt to insert its own puppets in power, this strategy will not be successful.* The petro-dollar is indeed in its last days whether we like it or not.
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The United States
This is the big one of course.* While we have seen outbursts from the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements ever since the banker coup of 2008, these movements have not been as sustained as demonstrations in other parts of the world.* This is about to change.* I am firmly of the view that the Obama Administration has pulled out every* trick in the book in order to get reelected this year, and that this strategy will probably succeed.* What I think the vast majority of people voting for him as well as investors fail to comprehend is that once this guy gets in and doesn’t need to worry about getting reelected he will leave everyone outside of his puppet masters out in the cold.* You think he has been bad for the poor and middle class so far via his inflationary policies?* Well you haven’t seen anything yet.* I believe there is a decent chance he will push “austerity” on the public as soon as he is reelected.* All the suckers that voted for him will be up in arms and the only ones that will be protected, as usual, will be the crony capitalists that own him.* Even if he doesn’t do this, his other option is merely to keep spending and force The Bernank to print more money.* The cost of living will surge and the poor and middle class will get crushed no matter what.* I covered this in my recent piece “2013: When Money Printing Meets Supply Constraints.”* The American Spring will get going in 2013.
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Just Say No…to War
The writing is on the wall folks.* The global economy is headed back down into depths that will prove worse than 2008, and this time no amount of money printing and propaganda will be enough to hold things together.* TPTB know this.* We need to remember that this isn’t just a battle between the masses within our distinct nations and the 0.01% of oligarchs that have used the past four years to harvest more of our wealth.* This is also a battle between humans collectively and themselves.* We need to grow up as a species and take charge of our destiny.* We need to stop falling for their tricks and fighting their stupid wars while they hide in their castles, parliaments and skyscrapers.* The first thing we need to do is say no.* No more.* It’s time to evolve.
While you guys wait on WW3 happening, anyone got an opinion on SBUX? Rapid global expansion in China, Europe and even India coupled with US growth pretty strong. I know people figure since it tanked hard during the last recession that it is a given it would do so again but I don't really see the risk being much worse than S&P, company is a lot stronger now than it was 5 year ago.
Pays a rising dividend, global powerhouse and they basically sell legalized drugs with huge margins. P/E 27 isn't cheap but there is probably gonna be 1 on every corner in China/India in 5 years.
Pays a rising dividend, global powerhouse and they basically sell legalized drugs with huge margins. P/E 27 isn't cheap but there is probably gonna be 1 on every corner in China/India in 5 years.
