Seahawks bet big. Love it

[SerfCap]

4th roadie in a row for 9ers. And physical game last week as well. I think they run outta gas this week. After 3 great weeks in a row. But the streak ends this week in Seattle. Seattle by DD.....that's the way I see it boys.

Good point. I've only heard this angle by a few people as it seems to be forgotten or neglected by most. In this game the little things is what will be the difference and they mostly favor Seattle. Off the top of my head:

- 4th straight road game for SF all against very tough opponents
- Refs should let team play, which favors Seattle
- Homefield advantage -- offense with limited ability to communicate and Kaep already with play clock problems


Probably more that I'm missing and I'm sure some in the favor of SF, but those stick out to me for a game at this point in the season.

 

[neverbend]

Wilson is definitely better than Kaepnerick on an individual level, however the weapons Kaepernick has, pretty much no team in the league has. A stud RB in Gore WITH 3 elite choices to throw to. Vernon Davis elite TE, is WAY WAY better than any TE Seattle has. Crabtree and Boldin are both still elite WR's and WAY WAY better than the WR corps Seattle has. Offensive line SF has better as well, so Kaep is set up in a great situation hence why he's outplayed Wilson the past 6-8 games, and will in all likelihood outplay Wilson again sunday because of all this.

This time SF has more man power than Seattle plain and simple, however obviously Seattle has a good shot at winning since the game is in their backyard, and I'm still not sure Kaepernick has really turned the corner (as it seems with all the weapons back). The game comes down to Lynch and Kaep... Kaep can't face plant and Lynch has to be held down by SF D. If both happen SF wins SU, and both are likely to happen, Lynch 3.5 YPC and 3.6 YPC past two v. SF, and without much in the passing game SF knows to clamp down - and likely will.

Will Kaep face plant or not? He hasn't in a LONG time since getting his weapons

Kaep can't face plant and Lynch has to be held down by SF D. If both happen SF wins SU, and both are likely to happen,
DEFINITELY THOSE SCENARIOS ARE THE KEYS TO THE GAME! BTW, I still would rather have Kaep than Wilson at the helm!

 

[seer]

Wilson is definitely better than Kaepnerick on an individual level, however the weapons Kaepernick has, pretty much no team in the league has. A stud RB in Gore WITH 3 elite choices to throw to. Vernon Davis elite TE, is WAY WAY better than any TE Seattle has. Crabtree and Boldin are both still elite WR's and WAY WAY better than the WR corps Seattle has. Offensive line SF has better as well, so Kaep is set up in a great situation hence why he's outplayed Wilson the past 6-8 games, and will in all likelihood outplay Wilson again sunday because of all this.

This time SF has more man power than Seattle plain and simple, however obviously Seattle has a good shot at winning since the game is in their backyard, and I'm still not sure Kaepernick has really turned the corner (as it seems with all the weapons back). The game comes down to Lynch and Kaep... Kaep can't face plant and Lynch has to be held down by SF D. If both happen SF wins SU, and both are likely to happen, Lynch 3.5 YPC and 3.6 YPC past two v. SF, and without much in the passing game SF knows to clamp down - and likely will.

Will Kaep face plant or not? He hasn't in a LONG time since getting his weapons

u know ur stuff and good analysis but ur missing some key ingredients:
1 and mostly this one..it is almost impossible for sf to hear play calls. kapp is not smart enough to audible - there is one thing about his game that is really bad that is play reads. so the one analysis that is critical is the fact the crowd noise will force false starts and not allow kapp to hear the signals.
lesser extent
2 yes sf has the best receiving core in the league but seattle has the best dbs around so it is a wash. with all the niner money coming it u can bet they will tag boldin and all his pushoffs for flags.
3 sf did have the team it wanted when they beat seattle in sf. by only 2 pts! and they didnt cover the spread. after the game they celebrated as though the won the sb already! it came down to a last play and a last sec fg to win.
not dominant at all when u consider they were much better on paper on that day as well and still couldnt cover the spread AT HOME

 

[seer]

Kaep is far better than Wilson, we'll all appreciate that Sunday. I'm only worried about Lynch who may be the best RB in the league.

you are the only one that believes that in this forum.

 

[DC.]

lol someone really said kaep is better than wilson in here ointer: wilson is without a doubt better than kaep, he has the a higher iq and is just as mobile with a better arm, you never see wilson shaken or rattled the way kap gets confused

if harvin is a go this sunday and plays the entire game this will be a big win by seattle, had sidney rice been in this game the seattle receivers core would be just as good as sf, these teams are evenly matched up except in one position (the secondary) seahawks defensive backs are far superior to san frans and they are the difference along with the hostile environment

20-17 seattle win, sf covers if you get 3.5, im already on seattle moneyline which i might add some units on but im thinking of playing sf +3.5 as well for a little less units

 

[DC.]

you are the only one that believes that in this forum.

tell him seer lol azzkick(&^kth)(&^

 

[savage55]

lol someone really said kaep is better than wilson in here ointer: wilson is without a doubt better than kaep, he has the a higher iq and is just as mobile with a better arm, you never see wilson shaken or rattled the way kap gets confused

if harvin is a go this sunday and plays the entire game this will be a big win by seattle, had sidney rice been in this game the seattle receivers core would be just as good as sf, these teams are evenly matched up except in one position (the secondary) seahawks defensive backs are far superior to san frans and they are the difference along with the hostile environment

20-17 seattle win, sf covers if you get 3.5, im already on seattle moneyline which i might add some units on but im thinking of playing sf +3.5 as well for a little less units

Wilson has a very weak arm FYI.. Kap has one the strongest arms in NFL if not the strongest. its been well documented.. The only area Wilson is stronger than Kap is possibly accuracy other than that they are equal or Kap has the edge.. Kap has the weapons Wilson doesnt plain and simple.. GL with your wager it should be a good one

 

[neverbend]

you are the only one that believes that in this forum.[/QUOTE

Colin Cowherd on his radio show just today seconded my evaluation, we will see for ourselves Sunday. Seattle's biggest hopes are the HOMEFIELD and Lynch. both defenses are great maybe #1 & #2. SF has a huge edge in receivers and a more than slight edge at QB.

 

[savage55]

you are the only one that believes that in this forum.[/QUOTE

Colin Cowherd on his radio show just today seconded my evaluation, we will see for ourselves Sunday. Seattle's biggest hopes are the HOMEFIELD and Lynch. both defenses are great maybe #1 & #2. SF has a huge edge in receivers and a more than slight edge at QB.

+1 Seattle is 100% banking on home field advantage winning this game for them.. If this was played at a neutral site Niners are favored by 3 or more.. I t will all be exposed on Sunday

 

[SerfCap]

You're mistaking Russell's arm strength with touch...Something Colin does not have.

I like Colin, but this is going overboard. Russell has very good arm strength.

 

[seer]

+1 Seattle is 100% banking on home field advantage winning this game for them.. If this was played at a neutral site Niners are favored by 3 or more.. I t will all be exposed on Sunday

no ur niners were favored by 2.5 and couldnt cover at home - with your team at full strength while sea's wasnt
that means seattle would still be fav by 0.5 on neut field which is reflective at -3.5

 

[cashflow50]

great! just jinxed it

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

u know ur stuff and good analysis but ur missing some key ingredients:
1 and mostly this one..it is almost impossible for sf to hear play calls. kapp is not smart enough to audible - there is one thing about his game that is really bad that is play reads. so the one analysis that is critical is the fact the crowd noise will force false starts and not allow kapp to hear the signals.
lesser extent
2 yes sf has the best receiving core in the league but seattle has the best dbs around so it is a wash. with all the niner money coming it u can bet they will tag boldin and all his pushoffs for flags.
3 sf did have the team it wanted when they beat seattle in sf. by only 2 pts! and they didnt cover the spread. after the game they celebrated as though the won the sb already! it came down to a last play and a last sec fg to win.
not dominant at all when u consider they were much better on paper on that day as well and still couldnt cover the spread AT HOME

you are the only one that believes that in this forum.

1. Definitely aware of Kaepernick's wasting of timeouts, and of course the LOUD stadium in Seattle. However I feel this time Harbaugh will have Kaepernick ready, I don't believe TOs will be wasted in this crucial game - could be wrong of course but I think the learning experience is coming to a close for Kaepernick and all of the experience in big games he's had over the past 2 years will have him ready to start turning mental corners. The crowd noise is very difficult of course, but I trust that Harbaugh will make things more simple knowing this, and knowing how badly they got whipped the previous two matchups everything has to be sharp for SF I think it will be. I'm not a SF or SEA fan, I'm actually a Jets fan however I watch both of these two teams a lot - I think this time SF is very prepared. Obviously the things you listed "could' Be a problem but I don't see it this time

2. The secondary for Seattle is very nice of course, Thomas + Chancellor don't cover really they hardly cover someone 1 on 1. Sherman will of course shut the crap out of whoever he guards, but I don't think Thurmond and Byron Maxwell are good enough to consistently win battles versus Boldin or Crabtree... Sherman will lock up Crabtree I bet, but Boldin will then get his, Thomas and or Chancellor will focus on VD, and of course heavy hitting in the run game and after passes are completed. The advantage I see is whoever Maxwell/Thurmond covers out of Boldin, Crabtree, VD that player will get loose enough to move it for SF. Gore is a big game player and should be able to churn well enough provided strong play calling from SF. I do realize most of the money is on SF, however I'm operating under the assumption there is no fix in this game and I think SF is the better team - and will win a very close game. I also heard the officiating crew for this sunday is very lenient and actually does not flag as much as even the league average so that will be something to watch

3. Right, however coming off a major surgery I don't think Crabtree was as good as he is now, as well I don't put a huge stock in home/road in huge rivalry games. I think Seattle smoked the crap out of SF the last two times in Seattle because Seattle was the MUCH better team in those games (player personnel wise). Things are different this time around, in SF's favor, but it is very close.

I doubt I will play anything this weekend, if I do it will be SF and the points... but this game is going to be a single digit close game... there were much better games to cash throughout the playoffs and that's what I did knowing shit would be very difficult to cap in the final games.

Saints over Eagles was a big play for me, as was last week teasing SEA to PK, and NE to -0.5 that was also a very easy play. But now things get very difficult, how do I know this game won't have Vegas fixing? Huge vegas edge to Seattle here... I think SF is the better team but the action is so heavy on SF, and obviously it wouldn't be too difficult of a game to fix with like a Seattle 24-17 win, no one would be surprised including me even though I like SF here and Vegas cashes huge.

 

[seer]

View attachment 16693

great! just jinxed it

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=980823

for ever 9 bets atm there are 1.5 bets on seattle.
no worries the jinx is already reversed with the above post

 

[seer]

1. Definitely aware of Kaepernick's wasting of timeouts, and of course the LOUD stadium in Seattle. However I feel this time Harbaugh will have Kaepernick ready, I don't believe TOs will be wasted in this crucial game - could be wrong of course but I think the learning experience is coming to a close for Kaepernick and all of the experience in big games he's had over the past 2 years will have him ready to start turning mental corners. The crowd noise is very difficult of course, but I trust that Harbaugh will make things more simple knowing this, and knowing how badly they got whipped the previous two matchups everything has to be sharp for SF I think it will be. I'm not a SF or SEA fan, I'm actually a Jets fan however I watch both of these two teams a lot - I think this time SF is very prepared. Obviously the things you listed "could' Be a problem but I don't see it this time

2. The secondary for Seattle is very nice of course, Thomas + Chancellor don't cover really they hardly cover someone 1 on 1. Sherman will of course shut the crap out of whoever he guards, but I don't think Thurmond and Byron Maxwell are good enough to consistently win battles versus Boldin or Crabtree... Sherman will lock up Crabtree I bet, but Boldin will then get his, Thomas and or Chancellor will focus on VD, and of course heavy hitting in the run game and after passes are completed. The advantage I see is whoever Maxwell/Thurmond covers out of Boldin, Crabtree, VD that player will get loose enough to move it for SF. Gore is a big game player and should be able to churn well enough provided strong play calling from SF. I do realize most of the money is on SF, however I'm operating under the assumption there is no fix in this game and I think SF is the better team - and will win a very close game. I also heard the officiating crew for this sunday is very lenient and actually does not flag as much as even the league average so that will be something to watch

3. Right, however coming off a major surgery I don't think Crabtree was as good as he is now, as well I don't put a huge stock in home/road in huge rivalry games. I think Seattle smoked the crap out of SF the last two times in Seattle because Seattle was the MUCH better team in those games (player personnel wise). Things are different this time around, in SF's favor, but it is very close.

I doubt I will play anything this weekend, if I do it will be SF and the points... but this game is going to be a single digit close game... there were much better games to cash throughout the playoffs and that's what I did knowing shit would be very difficult to cap in the final games.

Saints over Eagles was a big play for me, as was last week teasing SEA to PK, and NE to -0.5 that was also a very easy play. But now things get very difficult, how do I know this game won't have Vegas fixing? Huge vegas edge to Seattle here... I think SF is the better team but the action is so heavy on SF, and obviously it wouldn't be too difficult of a game to fix with like a Seattle 24-17 win, no one would be surprised including me even though I like SF here and Vegas cashes huge.

like i said good post. u have already solidified ur reasons on sf
i dont agree with all of what u said. if kapp could audible and call his own plays at the line i can see sf having an edge. however, he is not good with crowd noise.
i will always wait til sunday to bet. the practices b4 the game on fridays are important to follow who is hurt etc

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

like i said good post. u have already solidified ur reasons on sf
i dont agree with all of what u said. if kapp could audible and call his own plays at the line i can see sf having an edge. however, he is not good with crowd noise.
i will always wait til sunday to bet. the practices b4 the game on fridays are important to follow who is hurt etc

Definitely understandable, he's been shaky in that area leading up to this

and yessir, Harvin is highly questionable at this point - I doubt even if he plays he has much effect on the game. Like you said if Kaepernick doesn't bring strong intangibles to the game (what I expect), Seattle will be in the drivers seat. It has to be sharp on offense for SF

 

[DC.]

Wilson has a very weak arm FYI.. Kap has one the strongest arms in NFL if not the strongest. its been well documented.. The only area Wilson is stronger than Kap is possibly accuracy other than that they are equal or Kap has the edge.. Kap has the weapons Wilson doesnt plain and simple.. GL with your wager it should be a good one

iq for a qb is more important than an arm, kaep is stupid plain and simple, hes a great athlete yes but his iq is terrible..on the other hand you have russell wilson who has one of the highest iq`s in the league, almost as athletic as kaep and can beat you with his arm or on the run

 

[JohnnyMags]

The big deciding edge Kaep, Crab, Boldin & Davis are far superior in the skill posutions to Wilson, Tate, Baldwin & Miller.

Seattle's home field advantage & Lynch are the only things they have going for them and I don't think that's enough.

Didn't I read this in the SF post?
Actually the stats don't support this conclusion as I pointed out in that thread. Even as a group they have more passing yardage than SF and a better record. Add to that the last 2 games in Seattle blowouts for Seattle and the lone win in SF a squeaker. Another skilled position RB has Gore & Lynch both averaging 4+ yds per carry but Lynch has more TD's & receptions. If that's any advantage it's slightly Seattle.
How does this support a statement like SF is far superior in skill positions?

 

[JohnnyMags]

SF has just started to hit their stride at the right time. It's all coming together. Here is a little piece of info I heard during the pre game. The last 8 Super Bowl Winners have been a team who has had to play in the first round. Only one left is SF. There is your Super Bowl winner. Getting 3 1/2 points this week is almost like stealing !

I like trends and this is a good one. The problem with trends is often they aren't true. Such is the case with this careless piece of information.
Four years ago the Super Bowl winner was New Orleans and at 13-2 they had a bye the first week.
If you can't remember something that recent a little research is all you need to do. This stuff isn't hard to check.

So at least the last 3 fit your scenario.

 

[crazykind]

The 49ers have lost eight of their last 11 games in Seattle. In those eight wins by the Seahawks, the average score is 30.1 - 7.6.​