SAW 3 - Box Office

[llabb]

Further data but less useful b/c doesn't expand quick enough, too many weeks of drops in low theater counts. However, many of them have much higher than $5.1k PTA's even when they expand wide.


Syriana, R, 11/23/05, 74.9k PTA in 5 theaters, 2nd week 57.9k PTA in 9 theaters (77% hold), 3rd week 6.7k PTA in 1,752 theaters (12% hold). 9% overall hold from initial to wide release (too wide for a good comp).

Good Night and Good Luck, PG, 10/7/05, 38.3k PTA in 11 theaters, 2nd week 18.3k PTA in 68 theaters (48% hold), 3rd week 10.0k PTA in 225t (55%), then 7.4k in 272t (74%), then 4.7k in 657t (64%). 12% from initial to semi-wide

Thank You for Smoking, R, 3/17/06, 52.6k in 5t, 18.6k in 54t (35%), 12.7k in 126t (68%), 7.7k in 299t (61%), 4.4k in 1,015t (57%). 8% init to s-w

Hotel Rwanda, PG-13, 12/22/04, 14.3k in 7t, 20.3k in 7t (142%), 11.2k in 105t (55%), 7.6k in 192t (68%), 4.2k in 319t (55%), 4.4k in 317t (105%), 2.8k in 821t (64%). 20% init to s-w.

Kinsey, R, 11/12/04, 33.8k in 5t, 16.0k in 36t (47%), 6.9k in 188t (43%), 3.9k in 189t (57%), 5 weeks later 1.4k in 588t (36%). 4% init to s-w.

Million Dollar Baby, PG-13, 12/15/04, 22.5k in 8t, 3 weeks later 17.7k in 109t (79%), 3 weeks later 6.1k in 2,010t (34%). 27% init to w.

Sideways, R, 10/22/04, 51.8k in 4t, 25.3k in 16t (49%), 15.9k in 66t (63%), 9.8k in 144t (62%), 6.6k in 279t (67%), 5.9k in 497t (89%). 11% from init to s-w. 23% from 2nd wk to s-w.

 

[HPark1]

34 , -130o @ Oly

*Great info llabb

 

[HuskerFan1]

i havent seen enough concrete info to sway me on saw3 just yet...notfabio posted at 2pm...10hours of selling time to bump up the #'s...christ there was still 3hours before most people got out of work...

i still ike what some people posted about saw getting 5 screens at some threatres...this is the 1st movie since poc2 ive seen get mentioned with 5screens at worldofkj....dont care if they are overestimating or not....i couldnt believe when i saw 5 screens AMC30...

that was a great post llabb...

 

[Domer]

It was 4 screens. One was an interlock...

 

[HuskerFan1]

Regal Waterford Lakes in Orlando has sold out one of its two midnight shows for Saw III.


saw got popped again at pinny...ov-213 last time i checked..

funny bc people betting it under 35m at wsex was -180 up from -130...

 

[Domer]

Hilarious watching you and Little Beaver (another bettor) trying to understand what is going on and posting questions.

Basically you want them to spoon feed you money, eh?

That's why you are a square man. Those of us who think for ourselves got in early at -120ish.

 

[HuskerFan1]

ya i dont understand whats going on...ok loser...i asked if he any anymore info on the midnight sales...WHICH I POSTED days ago i would do...

i got in today at -160 an hour later it was -200....i missed -135 b/c i had to move some money around offshore and from 1 neteller account to another...

your the sharp though...(the biggest loser on mw)...like i said earlier go back to posting your losers over there where u belong...

to the other readers on this board...domer is one of those guys who likes to come into a thread after the fact posting how he has ALL the winners...example...last saturday...comes in stating in the 4th Q of the tenn/bama game how he has BAMA ML and how he's ROOTING THEM IN...as DD underdogs...lol...ya i had them too on the ML in the 4thQ when they were winning...thats real hard to do....he shows his true colors when they go on to LOSE...and doesnt say another word...im sure if they were getting blitzed he woulda never opened up his mouth....

i can post the thread if anyone would like...

 

[Domer]

First of all, my Alabama play was posted in the CFB forum before the game started (you can post that thread too).

Second of all I will let you know my play on this right now: I have 2 dimes on the Over at an average of -115.

Finally, you were laughed out of MW because you constantly bragged about your bet for Detroit winning the Central (which they ended up losing), and also for posting a "lock" play on a Minnesota Twins game. When your play turned out to be horrible, you proclaimed that you didn't bet anything on it. Were you banned after that? I haven't seen you post since then. I hope you were banned for that, only a child would do something like that.

Oh and I can post that thread if you want.

Clown.

 

[HuskerFan1]

i wasnt banned anywhere (PM the mods if you wish)...i never bragged about any play on the tigers...ive never bumped any of the threads there (btw my 15-1 on them to win the AL Pennant did WIN that i posted there did i bump it to toot my horn NO)...i hedged the central and i posted it here that i hedged it...get your facts straight loser...

and like i said there...i never did bet that play anyone who reads my shit woulda KNOWN that...


now go back where you belong donk...for the life of me i dont understand why you come over here anyways...i dont bother you over there...dont bother me over here..simple as that...you dont contribute anything here anyways so why post over here...i rarely read the forums over there...i never saw your bama pick in the other forums...i just find it funny how you come in saying i got a DD dog ML when they winning late in the game...only thing i check out is the mess hall time to time...

go post your movie shit over there...i promise i wont bother you...

 

[HPark1]

notfabio just posted these comparisons for the midnights;

$190K from 111 locations for SAW 3
vs 92K from 82 locations for SAW2

Reviews coming in are on the positive side too so I'm not concerned with the movie crumbling. Looks like this is going to get into the high 30's and possibly hit 40+ based on early numbers.

I think Over 35 -240 is still worth it. The 34 -175 at Olympic is a very, very good bet now.


*and Domer if you have nothing positive to contribute please refrain from posting.

 

[HuskerFan1]

Saw III Projected Weekend based on Midnights: 40.81 million
-- kenspy2, Oct 27, 12:14
Done backwards by getting expected Friday PTA of $5,155 (using similar movies' midnights). Multiply by 3,167 to get $16.325 for Friday. Multiply again by a 2.50 weekend multiplier (probably a little conservative) for a weekend of $40.813 weekend.

Obviously a lot of extrapolation, so some of you may be reticent to put much weight on this. I've done this once before for Pirates and got a $127 based on midnights. I was a little low on that one, and I am again being slightly conservative here (with the multiplier this time...with Pirates I had a $52 million Friday as opposed to the $55.8 actual).

Take it for what it's worth as I do own the stock.





this was a juggernaut bet for me this week...hopefully the #'s play out and we clean house this weekend....

 

[HPark1]

hmm...13.5ish Friday for Saw III. 33 looking decent but 35's are looking shaky.

Saw II did a 2.6 multiplier so if Saw III were to duplicate it would be just over 35. Hopefully the world series ending and the extra hour this weekend will be enough to give it an extra boost.

 

[HuskerFan1]

no it did 14million according to mojo and DHD bumped it to 14million also...SBD had it at 14.17...so...

this is a weird one to say the least...i went to see it last night with 3other people...place was 375 seater...90% full...i came home to read boards expecting to hear good news ATB and was stunned when i read it wasnt going great at all judging from early reports (i bet my balls on this one this week)...went to bed feeling like shit...anyways...woke up to a little better news as it did ok late but the insiders were expecting 12-13million friday...getting 14million was a relieve...BUT i dont think we out of the woods just yet...maybe for the 33 at pinny and the 33.5 at hollywood....

if the 14holds on to be true a 2.5multiplier would gets us to 35million thats less than the 2.6 from saw2 that you mentioned....the parts that we cant control..

A) how many of the diehards went out and already seen it
B) world series was played on a night it wasnt supposed to be played and its over...that could help out slightly in some markets


its raining and dreary here in boston....i would tend to think this might help out afternoon showings as with this lousy weather people might be inclined to go out and see a movie not sure the weather in other parts of the country...like my brother said though...you dont know for certain either way...i know the mall by my house WAS PACKED with cars...when its lousy out like this...you can either go to the mall or go to the movies...so....

when i step out and bet big like this i dont expect to sweat...i like them to be lock stock and barrel by saturday...i was really hoping for 16 or 17million on friday so i could put this one to bed...thats not the case with this one obviously...at the prices i got them at...i feel all in all im sitting in decent shape...even my wsex bet at 35million at -115 i think the price relative to its chances at going over 35million based on the multiplier id take my bet and let it run and see how it plays out...

from what ive seen so far...its looked like easy money early friday morning...to a serious potential falloff...to actually performing decently...hopefully it doesnt pull a grudge2 and fall on its face the rest of the weekend...

fwiw i thought it was an ok movie...the ending was fu-ked...and i recommended it to people...i dont think its one of those movies where people walk and say DONT GO SEE IT...if anything id think the college crowd that went to see it would tell their buddies the next day...ya it was a pretty good movie in line with the previous 2...

we will know a lot more tomorrow...

 

[Brendanb438]

Good info Husker from that KenSpy guy. KenSpy seems to be pretty damn good at these movie betting info unlike yourself. Too bad you are as big of a clown as that Domer guy Husky.... Here's to the $33 to $35 Middle hitting!


-Brendan

 

[HPark1]

Couple estimates out, 11.3 and 11.39. Over 35 is cooked and 33 is up in the air.

Those midnight numbers have proven to be quite misleading.

 

[HuskerFan1]

according to mojo...they are saying 34.4million

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=saw3.htm

they bumped friday to 14.4million fwiw...

i just think its weird how when u look at saw2 friday and saturday compared to saw3's it beat it both days even with it falling off greatly on saturday

saw2 friday 12,111,972M saturday 11,061,985 sund 8,551,695

saw3 friday 14M (lowball) 14.2 (med) 14.4 (the new mojo#) beats it by 1.9-2.3M

saw3 saturday 11,4M beats it by 350K

thats well over 2Million its ahead going into sunday...

31.7+ 2MILLION++ is close to 34M...

 

[HPark1]

imo BOM's 34+ seems unlikely. Only a 25% dropoff from Saturday? That seems generous considering how it felloff yesterday. I got a feeling 33's aren't safe.

 

[joelatti]

35 is cooked IMO....I also think that 33 are also done.....I took a beating on this film.......Husker I need you to come back strong next week

 

[HPark1]

SBD has a 7.5 sunday estimate to bring it to 32.745. ugh

 

[HPark1]

Poster at a forum has 31.61 as the actual with daily breakdown. Looks like something is salvaged after all...