- [h=2]152) UTSA +7.5…(4%) - Circa at +8[/h]
- CFB
Game: (153) Louisville at (154) Notre Dame
Date/Time: Oct 17 2020 2:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Louisville +17.0 (-110)
[h=2]153) Louisville +17…(4%) via Pinnacle[/h] - CFB
Game: (139) Mississippi at (140) Arkansas
Date/Time: Oct 17 2020 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Arkansas +3.5 (-125)
[h=2]140) Arkansas +3.5 (-125) - Buy ½ PT…(4%) via Pinnacle[/h] - CFB
Game: (143) Texas A&M at (144) Mississippi State
Date/Time: Oct 17 2020 4:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Mississippi State +5.5 (-110)
[h=2]144) Mississippi St +5.5…(5%) - BIG MOVE via Circa/William Hill[/h] - CFB
Game: (143) Texas A&M at (144) Mississippi State
Date/Time: Oct 17 2020 4:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 56.0 (-110)
[h=2]143) Over 56 A&M-Mississippi St…(3%) via Pinnacle[/h] - CFB
Game: (161) Marshall at (162) Louisiana Tech
Date/Time: Oct 17 2020 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Louisiana Tech +14.0 (-120)
[h=2]162) Louisiana Tech +14 (-120) - Buy ½ PT…(4%) via Pinnacle[/h] - CFB
Game: (161) Marshall at (162) Louisiana Tech
Date/Time: Oct 17 2020 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 49.0 (-115)
[h=2]161) Under 49 (-115) Marshall-La Tech…(3%) via Pinnacle[/h]
MILLER LOCKS
Saturday 10/17/2020 Picks
12:00 PM ET NCAAF
PITTSBURGH VS. MIAMI FLORIDA
PICK: MIAMI FLORIDA -13 (-101)
RISK: 11 UNITS
12:00 PM ET NCAAF
KENTUCKY VS. TENNESSEE
PICK: TENNESSEE -6.5 (-102)
RISK: 11 UNITS
12:00 PM ET NCAAF
KANSAS VS. WEST VIRGINIA
PICK: WEST VIRGINIA -22.5 (-101)
RISK: 11 UNITS
3:30 PM ET NCAAF
CENTRAL FLORIDA VS. MEMPHIS
PICK: CENTRAL FLORIDA -3 (-102)
RISK: 11 UNITS
5:00 PM ET NCAAF
NORTH TEXAS VS. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
PICK: NORTH TEXAS +6 (-114)
RISK: 11 UNITS
8:00 PM ET NCAAF
BOSTON COLLEGE VS. VIRGINIA TECH
PICK: BOSTON COLLEGE +12 (+100)
RISK: 11 UNITS
8:00 PM ET NCAAF
GEORGIA VS. ALABAMA
PICK: GEORGIA +6 (-107)
RISK: 11 UNITS
Saturday 10/17/2020 Picks
12:00 PM ET NCAAF
PITTSBURGH VS. MIAMI FLORIDA
PICK: MIAMI FLORIDA -13 (-101)
RISK: 11 UNITS
12:00 PM ET NCAAF
KENTUCKY VS. TENNESSEE
PICK: TENNESSEE -6.5 (-102)
RISK: 11 UNITS
12:00 PM ET NCAAF
KANSAS VS. WEST VIRGINIA
PICK: WEST VIRGINIA -22.5 (-101)
RISK: 11 UNITS
3:30 PM ET NCAAF
CENTRAL FLORIDA VS. MEMPHIS
PICK: CENTRAL FLORIDA -3 (-102)
RISK: 11 UNITS
5:00 PM ET NCAAF
NORTH TEXAS VS. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
PICK: NORTH TEXAS +6 (-114)
RISK: 11 UNITS
8:00 PM ET NCAAF
BOSTON COLLEGE VS. VIRGINIA TECH
PICK: BOSTON COLLEGE +12 (+100)
RISK: 11 UNITS
8:00 PM ET NCAAF
GEORGIA VS. ALABAMA
PICK: GEORGIA +6 (-107)
RISK: 11 UNITS
Chan Sung Jung (-170) vs. Brian Ortega (+150): Jung via TKO
Chan Sung Jung, AKA The Korean Zombie, is never in a boring fight and Ortega is making his return after his first loss almost two years ago. Both are great grapplers, but Ortega looks like one of the most dangerous submission artists in the UFC. Jung is a great grappler as well, but his big edge is in striking. Ortega can hang with him volume-wise, but TKZ is the much better overall striker and much more dangerous as well. This feels like a submission or bust fight for Ortega and Zombie has never been submitted before, so I have to lean with the favorite to get his hand raised.
Ciryl Gane (-600) vs. Ante Delija (+450): Gane via TKO
Gane is the dark horse in this heavyweight division and we could see him fight for a title in the next couple of years. Delija is making his UFC debut and it is a tough spot, as the line indicates. He looks pretty decent and he has some solid power and grappling that he could try and use as his path to victory. A knockout is still going to be his best shot at the win. Gane looks like the better fighter everywhere, so I don't see him losing a decision. Gane is also more likely to get the knockout or submission as well.
Jessica Andrade -140 vs Katlyn Chookagian +120: Andrade by decision
Chookagian is coming off the best performance of her career and Andrade is coming off back-to-back losses. If this fight was booked before those outcomes, Andrade would probably be about -400 in this spot. Chookagian can't dominate the wrestling-grappling like she did in her last fight, and she is more likely to be the one spending time on her back. Chookagian is going to need to get back to her point fighting and try to win this fight at range, but Andrade isn't the type of fighter to let that happen. Andrade is going to be the bully and, if she makes it more of a dirty fight and gets on the inside, she should win.
Jimmy Crute (-340) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (+280): Crute by submission
Crute is a young, top prospect in the UFC and he is only 24 with four UFC fights against decent competition under his belt. His striking still needs some work but he already looks like one of the top wrestlers-grapplers in the division. Bukauskas is probably in trouble if Crute wants to implement the game plan of dominating on the ground, but he can keep this close on the feet. Crute is the pick because he should look for takedowns, and if he gets them, he probably gets the submission or a decision win.
Thomas Almeida (-150) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+130): Almeida by TKO
Almeida is making his return after almost three years away, and he used to be one of my favorite strikers in the UFC. His striking is legit and it is dangerous. He lost three of his past four fights against top competition and he was knocked out in two of them. The chin is my biggest worry with Almeida and he is a bit too hittable, but skills-wise he is the much better striker. Even with the possible durability issue, I think he is more likely to finish as well. Martinez should give Almeida the fight he wants, and this should be a fun, striking battle.
Mateusz Gamrot (-300) vs. Guram Kutateladze (+250): Gamrot by decision
Gamrot is an undefeated prospect making his UFC debut, and he looks like he belongs in the UFC. Kutateladze is also making his UFC debut and he looks like he is a dangerous striker, but is most likely going to need a knockout to pull off the upset. Gamrot's grappling looks like they will be too much for Kutateladze and he can win on the feet as well. It is just a much closer and more risky fight there.
Gillian Robertson (-240) vs. Poliana Botelho (+200): Botelho by TKO
This is going to be a striker versus grappler matchup. Robertson doesn't have much to offer Botelho on the feet and, if she can't get takedowns, she might get stopped. Botelho's weakness is being put on her back and that is Robertson's strength. Robertson will be going for takedowns early and often and, if she gets them, she can finish with a submission. If she doesn't, she could start to fade with the game plan she will be implementing, and I think Botelho is going to give her fits on the feet. The Robertson submission is the most likely outcome, but at these odds I would rather take Botelho to avoid it and finish her.
James Krause (-180) vs. Claudio Silva (+160): Krause by decision
Krause is stepping in on short notice to take this fight. This is a close one, but Krause is going to be the pick because of his striking. Both fighters are great grapplers, but the edge on the ground goes to Silva. However, Krause hasn't been submitted in over a decade and I don't know that Silva can wrestle well enough to just win rounds against Krause. Krause should be able to pick him apart while the fight is on the feet and he is a good enough grappler to survive if he is taken down.
Jun Yong Park (-250) vs. John Phillips (+210): Park by submission
Phillips is a striker only and he is going to be looking for the kill right out of the gates. If he can keep this fight standing, then maybe he gets that knockout. But being put on his back is his big weakness and that will be the worry. If Park can land takedowns, he can lock up a submission or use his wrestling to keep top control and win rounds. He isn't a great wrestler-grappler, so I don't see any value in this line and that is all baked into it.
Jamie Mullarkey (-135) vs. Fares Ziam (+115): Ziam by decision
Before joining the UFC, Ziam looked like the more impressive fighter with a higher ceiling. In their UFC debuts, Mullarkey was more impressive and he had a tougher matchup as well. Both guys are young and should improve every fight, but Ziam is only 23 and he looks like he has the talent to be special. This is a close one, but give me the underdog to win this fight at range and take a decision.
Maxim Grishin (-400) vs. Gadzhmurad Antigulov (+320): Grishin by TKO
Grishin is the all-around better fighter and he will have a big size advantage along with an 8-inch reach advantage. Antigulov might be the better fighter in the first 2 minutes because of his aggression, so that is going to be the danger zone for Grishin. Antigulov could submit him or knock him out in those opening minutes. If Grishin weathers the early storm, he is going to win and get a finish of his own.
Said Nurmagomedov (-420) vs. Mark Striegl (+340): Nurmagomedov by decision
Don't let the name fool you. This Nurmagomedov is not going to look to maul his opponent, He is quite the opposite and he is the one who needs to worry about being taken down. Said Nurmagomedov is a striker and that is where he will have a big edge. If he can keep this fight standing, he will win with a knockout or a clear decision.
Chan Sung Jung, AKA The Korean Zombie, is never in a boring fight and Ortega is making his return after his first loss almost two years ago. Both are great grapplers, but Ortega looks like one of the most dangerous submission artists in the UFC. Jung is a great grappler as well, but his big edge is in striking. Ortega can hang with him volume-wise, but TKZ is the much better overall striker and much more dangerous as well. This feels like a submission or bust fight for Ortega and Zombie has never been submitted before, so I have to lean with the favorite to get his hand raised.
Ciryl Gane (-600) vs. Ante Delija (+450): Gane via TKO
Gane is the dark horse in this heavyweight division and we could see him fight for a title in the next couple of years. Delija is making his UFC debut and it is a tough spot, as the line indicates. He looks pretty decent and he has some solid power and grappling that he could try and use as his path to victory. A knockout is still going to be his best shot at the win. Gane looks like the better fighter everywhere, so I don't see him losing a decision. Gane is also more likely to get the knockout or submission as well.
Jessica Andrade -140 vs Katlyn Chookagian +120: Andrade by decision
Chookagian is coming off the best performance of her career and Andrade is coming off back-to-back losses. If this fight was booked before those outcomes, Andrade would probably be about -400 in this spot. Chookagian can't dominate the wrestling-grappling like she did in her last fight, and she is more likely to be the one spending time on her back. Chookagian is going to need to get back to her point fighting and try to win this fight at range, but Andrade isn't the type of fighter to let that happen. Andrade is going to be the bully and, if she makes it more of a dirty fight and gets on the inside, she should win.
Jimmy Crute (-340) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (+280): Crute by submission
Crute is a young, top prospect in the UFC and he is only 24 with four UFC fights against decent competition under his belt. His striking still needs some work but he already looks like one of the top wrestlers-grapplers in the division. Bukauskas is probably in trouble if Crute wants to implement the game plan of dominating on the ground, but he can keep this close on the feet. Crute is the pick because he should look for takedowns, and if he gets them, he probably gets the submission or a decision win.
Thomas Almeida (-150) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+130): Almeida by TKO
Almeida is making his return after almost three years away, and he used to be one of my favorite strikers in the UFC. His striking is legit and it is dangerous. He lost three of his past four fights against top competition and he was knocked out in two of them. The chin is my biggest worry with Almeida and he is a bit too hittable, but skills-wise he is the much better striker. Even with the possible durability issue, I think he is more likely to finish as well. Martinez should give Almeida the fight he wants, and this should be a fun, striking battle.
Mateusz Gamrot (-300) vs. Guram Kutateladze (+250): Gamrot by decision
Gamrot is an undefeated prospect making his UFC debut, and he looks like he belongs in the UFC. Kutateladze is also making his UFC debut and he looks like he is a dangerous striker, but is most likely going to need a knockout to pull off the upset. Gamrot's grappling looks like they will be too much for Kutateladze and he can win on the feet as well. It is just a much closer and more risky fight there.
Gillian Robertson (-240) vs. Poliana Botelho (+200): Botelho by TKO
This is going to be a striker versus grappler matchup. Robertson doesn't have much to offer Botelho on the feet and, if she can't get takedowns, she might get stopped. Botelho's weakness is being put on her back and that is Robertson's strength. Robertson will be going for takedowns early and often and, if she gets them, she can finish with a submission. If she doesn't, she could start to fade with the game plan she will be implementing, and I think Botelho is going to give her fits on the feet. The Robertson submission is the most likely outcome, but at these odds I would rather take Botelho to avoid it and finish her.
James Krause (-180) vs. Claudio Silva (+160): Krause by decision
Krause is stepping in on short notice to take this fight. This is a close one, but Krause is going to be the pick because of his striking. Both fighters are great grapplers, but the edge on the ground goes to Silva. However, Krause hasn't been submitted in over a decade and I don't know that Silva can wrestle well enough to just win rounds against Krause. Krause should be able to pick him apart while the fight is on the feet and he is a good enough grappler to survive if he is taken down.
Jun Yong Park (-250) vs. John Phillips (+210): Park by submission
Phillips is a striker only and he is going to be looking for the kill right out of the gates. If he can keep this fight standing, then maybe he gets that knockout. But being put on his back is his big weakness and that will be the worry. If Park can land takedowns, he can lock up a submission or use his wrestling to keep top control and win rounds. He isn't a great wrestler-grappler, so I don't see any value in this line and that is all baked into it.
Jamie Mullarkey (-135) vs. Fares Ziam (+115): Ziam by decision
Before joining the UFC, Ziam looked like the more impressive fighter with a higher ceiling. In their UFC debuts, Mullarkey was more impressive and he had a tougher matchup as well. Both guys are young and should improve every fight, but Ziam is only 23 and he looks like he has the talent to be special. This is a close one, but give me the underdog to win this fight at range and take a decision.
Maxim Grishin (-400) vs. Gadzhmurad Antigulov (+320): Grishin by TKO
Grishin is the all-around better fighter and he will have a big size advantage along with an 8-inch reach advantage. Antigulov might be the better fighter in the first 2 minutes because of his aggression, so that is going to be the danger zone for Grishin. Antigulov could submit him or knock him out in those opening minutes. If Grishin weathers the early storm, he is going to win and get a finish of his own.
Said Nurmagomedov (-420) vs. Mark Striegl (+340): Nurmagomedov by decision
Don't let the name fool you. This Nurmagomedov is not going to look to maul his opponent, He is quite the opposite and he is the one who needs to worry about being taken down. Said Nurmagomedov is a striker and that is where he will have a big edge. If he can keep this fight standing, he will win with a knockout or a clear decision.
