Dave Portnoy:
| Hawaii + 10 vs Fresno State |
| Northwestern + 12 vs Nebraska |
| Notre Dame + 2.5 vs Cincinnati |
| Ole Miss + 14.5 vs Alabama |
| Boston College + 15.5 vs Clemson |
| Syracuse + 5.5 vs Florida State |
| Arkansas + 18.5 vs Georgia |
| Georgia Tech + 3.5 vs Pittsburgh |
| Kansas State + 10.5 vs Oklahoma |
| Kentucky + 8.5 vs Florida |
| LSU vs Auburn Over 55 |
| LSU -4 vs Auburn |
| Oregon State -2.5 vs Washington |
| Indiana + 12.5 vs Penn State |
| Ohio State -15 vs Rutgers |
| Rutgers vs Ohio State Over 58.5 |
| Stanford + 8 vs Oregon |
| TCU + 5 vs Texas |
| TCU vs Texas Over 65.5 |
| Arizona State + 3.5 vs UCLA |
| UCLA vs Arizona State Over 55.5 |
| Connecticut + 14.5 vs Vanderbilt |
| Michigan + 1.5 vs Wisconsin |
Clay Travis- 28-15 record-
Michigan at Wisconsin, the under 43.5
Arkansas +19 at Georgia
Cincinnati at Notre Dame +2.5
Ole Miss +14.5 at Alabama
Ohio State at Rutgers +15.5
Oregon at Stanford +8.5
Oklahoma at Kansas State +10.5
Vals +3 at Mizzou and the over 65
Florida at Kentucky, the under 55.5
Boston College +15.5 at Clemson
Auburn at LSU -3.5
Mississippi State +7.5 at Texas A&M
Michigan at Wisconsin, the under 43.5
Arkansas +19 at Georgia
Cincinnati at Notre Dame +2.5
Ole Miss +14.5 at Alabama
Ohio State at Rutgers +15.5
Oregon at Stanford +8.5
Oklahoma at Kansas State +10.5
Vals +3 at Mizzou and the over 65
Florida at Kentucky, the under 55.5
Boston College +15.5 at Clemson
Auburn at LSU -3.5
Mississippi State +7.5 at Texas A&M
Jimmy Moore
G* Cincinnati-Notre Dame over 50.5 (CFB Total of Year)
Give me the OVER in this one since both of these teams have dynamic offenses and their defenses have looked decent but that was against lousy competition. Both of these teams have dreams of the playoff so they will bring everything they have on offense to get a win here as well. Jump on this Over with Jimmy!
G* Cincinnati-Notre Dame over 50.5 (CFB Total of Year)
Give me the OVER in this one since both of these teams have dynamic offenses and their defenses have looked decent but that was against lousy competition. Both of these teams have dreams of the playoff so they will bring everything they have on offense to get a win here as well. Jump on this Over with Jimmy!
- BTC SPORT
- Too Much Bulldog Power
Game: (179) Arkansas at (180) Georgia
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: 1H Georgia -10.0 (-110)
There's going to be a theme among a lot of my picks this week: How many points are they going to score? Georgia is allowing 3.1 yards per play (No. 1 in the nation) with 2.3 yards per rush (No. 8) and 4.6 yards per pass attempt (No. 1). And that includes games against Clemson, two SEC teams and a pretty-darn-good UAB squad. There's no FCS cupcakes in there.
The line is coming down because there are questions surrounding Georgia quarterback JT Daniels. I'm not concerned with that. If he plays…awesome. If he doesn't, Stetson Bennett is a fifth-year senior with plenty of experience. This handicap isn't based on Georgia's quarterback, it's based on how many points Arkansas is going to score. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson left last week's game, and wide receiver Treylon Burks was seen in a walking boot last weekend. For Arkansas to have any success in this game and have the potential to pull the upset, those two guys need to be at the top of their game.
Kirby Smart is NOT happy about having the noon ET timeslot with his No. 2 team hosting the undefeated No. 8 team, while unranked LSU gets the nationally-televised night game. He's pulling out all the stops to make sure his team is ready for this one, and I think they will be. Someone that I respect in the college football betting market says that he's made a positive adjustment to Arkansas' power rating three separate times this season, and he still can't get near the -18 point spread that's being offered in this game.
I am going to focus on the first half, as I expect a fast start from the Bulldogs. At the time of posting, Arkansas -10 1H is available across the board.
Game: (183) Tennessee at (184) Missouri
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Total Over 65.5 (-110)
I can't think of too many feelings that are worse than watching a team that you bet on where you just know that they are physically incapable of getting a stop on defense. I had Missouri last week against Boston College. I knew Missouri's defense was bad. I still thought that they would find a way to slow down a Boston College offense that was being led by a back-up quarterback. Nope. The Tigers defense was as bad as advertised, giving up 275 rushing yards to the Eagles.
The worry heading into this week was around Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker, who left last week's game against Florida. He's been cleared and should be good-to-go for this game. Missouri is currently giving up 5.6 yards per carry, which is No. 115 in the country.
For the purpose of making a selection here at Sportsmemo, I'll go with the full-game over 65.5, which is widely available at most books. I'll also be playing Tennessee's team total over. At the time of posting, Tennessee team total over 31.5 is available at FanDuel (-102); Barstool (-106) and DraftKings (-115).
Game: (145) Ohio State at (146) Rutgers
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Ohio State -15.0 (-110)
If you scroll through the Sportsmemo Live odds screen, there are a lot of ‘dogs that look pretty trendy this week: Ole Miss at Alabama; Arkansas at Georgia; Boston College at Clemson; and a handful of others…Like this one. Ohio State has won this series by 39, 42, 58, 56, 49, 35 and 22 since 2014. Greg Schiano deserves a ton of credit for getting Rutgers back to respectability (and that’s what's keeping this line at a very reasonable range), but Ohio State is still three weight classes above the Scarlet Knights. The key in this game is the drastic change in styles from what Rutgers has previously played this season. Syracuse still hasn't found a quarterback. Michigan would be happy if they didn't have to throw the ball a single time. Ohio State's wide receivers are lightyears ahead of anything that Rutgers has seen thus far. Michigan let Rutgers back into the game after building a 20-3 lead at halftime last week. I don't think you have to worry about that with the Buckeyes. Lay it with confidence on Ohio State this weekend.
Game: (131) Indiana at (132) Penn State
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Total Under 53.5 (-110)
Things are not pointed in the right direction for this Indiana offense. Michael Penix Jr. was a dynamic athlete last season, but it's pretty clear that he's still not over his offseason knee surgery. He's not looking to escape the pocket, and that's really limited the Hoosier offense. Florida State transfer DJ Matthews tore his ACL last week, and the Hoosiers are now really thin at receiver. Indiana is only rushing the ball for 3.4 yards per carry, and that includes games against FCS Idaho and Western Kentucky. Penn State's defense is allowing 4.9 yards per pass attempt, which is No. 5 in the country.
Bill Connelly's SP+ Ratings project Indiana to score 15 points in this contest. I think that's pretty spot-on, to be honest. In last year's overtime game in Bloomington, the Hoosiers generated 211 total yards on 3.4 yards per play. Penix Jr. was 19-of-36 for 170 yards. Running back Stevie Scott rushed for 2.9 yards per carry. Now, that offense is traveling to Happy Valley for a night game. Good luck.
For the purpose of making a pick here at Sportsmemo, I'll take the full game under 53.5 points (-110). If anyone wanted to diversity their position with a first half play, or an Indiana team total under, I wouldn't talk you out of it.
CAL SPORT
- Game: (137) Toledo at (138) Massachusetts
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D%
Play: 1H Toledo -15.5 (-110)
FIRST HALF #137 D% Toledo -15.5 MASSACHUSETTS Noon ET
UMass getting outgained by 228 YPG. Toledo HC Crandle saying all the right things about not overlooking this foe. Toledo’s D very proud of not giving up a TD in eight quarters. Crandle harping on a fast start while UMass is without two DB starters in Lindsay & Wallace. - Game: (141) Louisville at (142) Wake Forest
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 12:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: E%
Play: Total Over 62.0 (-110)
#141/#142 E%* OVER 62 Louisville/WAKE FOREST 12:30 PM (this is a 5% plays)
Pace, pace, pace! As the season progresses Dave Clawson has his team play faster and faster. Wake Forest ran 89 plays vs Florida St and then last week scored on their first 7 possessions on the road at Virginia. The value in this play is that this line is “low” because WF is 0-4 O/U this season, thanks to the feeble set of offenses they have played (Old Dom, Norfolk St, Florida St & LW they allowed 506 yds to Virginia). Louisville has run 77, 76 and 81 plays vs the three FBS foes they have played. The Cards have totaled 896 yards in their last 2 games vs UCF and Florida St. - Game: (111) Syracuse at (112) Florida State
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C%
Play: Total Under 51.0 (-110)
#111/#112 C% UNDER 51 Syracuse/ FLORIDA ST 3:30 PM ET
Yes, Florida St moved the ball to the tune of 453 but they only scored 23 points and are now without McKenzie Milton. The Seminoles OL is a mess and they’ve allowed 14 sacks vs three FBS foes and now face a Syracuse DL that has 18 sacks in their last 3 games. Dino Barbers has released that his super paced offense that he ran at BG and the first few seasons here is not get work so he now counting on his D and running the ball. The Cuse ran the ball 53 times and passed only 15 times LW. - Game: (165) Oregon at (166) Stanford
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C%
Play: Total Under 57.5 (-110)
#165/#166 C% UNDER 57.5 Oregon/STANFORD 3:30 PM
Oregon like Syracuse has made changes to their offense as they have a run heavy offense while counting on their defense. The Ducks are avg 67 plays/game and the D is allowing under 55 yards/play. Stanford one of the slowest paced teams as they have run 52, 53, 56 and 57 plays in their 4 games. - Game: (167) Central Michigan at (168) Miami Ohio
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C%
Play: Central Michigan +1.5 (-110)
#167 C% Central Michigan +1.5 MIAMI, OH 3:30 PM ET
Triple revenge as Central has lost 3 straight as a favorite including the 2019 MAC Championship that many of these players remember. Don’t see the RedHawks offense being to keep up with the Chippewas. - Game: (195) Texas Tech at (196) West Virginia
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C%
Play: West Virginia -7.0 (-110)
#196 C% WEST VIRGINIA -7 Texas Tech 3:30 PM ET
With Tyler Shough injury the Tech offense goes back to Henry Colombi. While Colombi did make several starts in 2020 he now travels and faces a crowd for the first time as a starter. The WV D has 10 sacks the last two games vs VT and Oklahoma which will lead to a pick or two. WV lost at home to Tech in 2019 and lost LY as 3 pt favorite. - Game: (153) Air Force at (154) New Mexico
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 6:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C%
Play: Total Under 46.0 (-110)
#53/#154 C% UNDER 46 Air Force/ NEW MEXICO 6:30 PM ET
Based on one thing. No one stops the option like New Mexico DC Rocky Long. - Game: (209) UL Lafayette at (210) South Alabama
Date/Time: Oct 2 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D%
Play: UL Lafayette -11.0 (-110)
#209 D% ULL -11 South Alabama
My power ratings have ULL as a 17 pt favorite!!
ULL with 3 straight wins since their opener with Texas and they have a bye week on deck and while they didn’t cover LW as an AF vs an option team they are 10-5-1 as an AF! South Alabama has played one of the weakest schedules facing Southern Miss, Bowling Green and Alcorn St and despite being a 33.5 combined favorite they are only outgaining foes by 63 YPG! Big step up in class especially for a Jags squad that has allowed 11 sacks in 3 games vs very weak foes.
