BTC SPORT
Green Wave Wipeout
Game: (195) Tulane at (196) Mississippi
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 11:55 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Mississippi -14.0 (-115)
Let's put the pieces of this point spread together. Tulane closed as a 32-point underdog at Oklahoma two weeks ago. That was an 11am kickoff in Norman, where Oklahoma invited as many Tulane supporters as they could because of the hurricane and even painted the field for Tulane. It wasn't exactly an intimidating environment. Two weeks later, in a nationally-televised night game at Ole Miss where Lane Kiffin will surely pull out all of the stops, Tulane is only getting 14 points. So this point spread suggests that a) Oklahoma is 18 points better than Ole Miss (I don't believe that's the case); and b) Something has happened to bring these two teams closer together in the betting market (I don't believe that to be the case, either).
Both Tulane and Ole Miss played FCS schools last week and crushed them. Let's throw both of those games completely out of the equation. Prior to the start of the season, our friends at The GoldSheet had this game lined as Ole Miss -16.5 vs Tulane. Ole Miss exceeded market expectations in Week 1 by beating Louisville by 19 as a 10-point favorite. So in theory, Ole Miss should be moving up in the market, not down.
Everyone saw Tulane's final score at Oklahoma and saw that the Green Wave lost by five. Oklahoma was up 23 at halftime and choked away their lead in the fourth quarter. That's not something Lane Kiffin is guilty of very often. If anything, Tulane's near-comeback in Norman will help Lane Kiffin keep his foot on the gas in this one. This is a home game at night on ESPN2 and he's got the second choice in the Heisman betting market at quarterback (which I'm sure he's well aware of). Ole Miss has off next week, so there shouldn't be any fears of a letdown or look-ahead. This is Tulane's third-straight road game. Lay the points with confidence in this matchup at anything less than -17.
Bearcat Beatdown
Game: (127) Cincinnati at (128) Indiana
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Cincinnati -4.0 (-110)
There were plenty of sharp bettors splashing some cold water on Indiana's season last year and taking their regular season win total under 7.5/8 prior to Week 1. Let's review some of their wins last year. They beat Penn State despite getting out-gained by 277 yards. They beat Wisconsin despite getting out-gained by 125 yards. They got out-gained by 124 yards in their bowl game vs Ole Miss. 2021 feels like it's headed toward more of a traditional .500 Indiana season than their 6-1 regular season from a year ago.
Indiana QB Michael Penix, Jr. hasn't looked great in his return from an offseason knee surgery. In Week 1 against Iowa he threw three interceptions (two that were returned for a touchdown) and last week against Idaho he didn't complete a pass of more than ten yards. “I think it was definitely a very positive step in the right direction for Michael,” head coach Tom Allen said. “I felt last week’s practice was better for him than it was the week before. So as we continue to help this process move forward, I think you’re just going to see him getting better and better.”
Those words are encouraging, but they also sound like the guy still isn't 100-percent. Good luck going against this Cincinnati defense if you're not 100-percent. Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings have Cincinnati as a 10-point favorite in this contest. And let's not downplay Cincinnati's Week 1 win over Miami (Ohio) too much. The RedHawks beat eventual MAC champion Ball State last season, and only lost at Minnesota by five last week. Cincinnati was up 35-0 against them.
At the time of posting, there are a handful of -3.5's out there (Caesars, Westgate SuperBook and Circa), but the consensus is -4 and I'm comfortable laying anything under -6 with Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon.
Game: (117) Boston College at (118) Temple
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: 1H Total Under 29.5 (-110)
A lot of injury questions in this game, and all of them are on the offensive side of the ball. Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovec is likely to miss the rest of this season after suffering an injury last week. The Eagles will hand the ball to Dennis Grosel who has starting experience in the past with some mixed results. Star wide receiver Zay Flowers left last week's game as well. He is expected to be fine and play this week, but how much are you going to push him with Missouri and Clemson next on the schedule?
The same thing is true on the other side of the ball as Temple starting quarterback D'Wan Mathis left last week's game against Akron in a walking boot. He is "day to day" and his status is unlikely to be known until gametime. His backup, Justin Lynch, is a true freshman. Temple lost 61-14 to Rutgers in Week 1, but the defense certainly wasn't responsible for those 61 points. The Owls only gave up 4.6 yards per play to the Scarlet Knights and held them to 5-of-15 on third downs.
Jurkovec was a do-it-all player for Boston College, and I expect them to change a lot in terms of how they will approach the rest of the season. Things will be tightened up on defense, and the playbook may get a little more conservative until Grosel gets his feet wet. Obviously this is a very small sample size, but Temple (No. 115 in plays per game) and Boston College (No. 117) have played at a very slow pace to start the season.
At the time of posting, the first half under 29.5 is available at Caesars (-110) and Heritage (-110). There's a 30.5 at Pinnacle (-132) and DraftKings (-130). I would not play those at that juice, if you can avoid it. I'm comfortable it it at 29.5 at a standard juice. I also wouldn't fault anyone for splitting their bet between the full game and first half.
Flames on Fire
Game: (167) Old Dominion at (168) Liberty
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: 1H Liberty -16.5 (-115)
The betting market continues to sell Liberty a little short. The Flames have covered the spread in their last TEN games. Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings have Liberty favored by 32 in this matchup with Old Dominion.
The Monarchs didn't play last season, so this is a complete re-build for Ricky Rahne at Old Dominion. Even though they beat Hampton last week, ODU has lost 13-straight games against FBS compeition. They've brought in DJ Mack Jr., formerly at UCF, to play quarterback. Mack Jr. brings an intriguing dual-threat element with his legs, but he's been dreadful as a passer. In two seasons of limited duty at UCF plus the first two games of this year at ODU, Mack Jr. is completing 50.6-percent of his passes. He better figure some things out in the passing game because Liberty's rush defense has allowed 0.9 yards per carry so far this season.
I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for going for the full game -27.5, but there are a couple small intangibles that lead me toward the first half instead. First, Liberty is a great first half team. In 2019 they were No. 22 in the country in first half scoring, and last year they were No. 17 at 20.0 points per game. Second, Liberty plays Syracuse next Friday in the Carrier Dome. And while Syracuse certainly doesn't hold much national appeal at the moment, it's still an opportunity for Liberty to take on an ACC opponent. With it being a short week, Liberty may take their foot off the gas a little bit in the second half.
Green Wave Wipeout
Game: (195) Tulane at (196) Mississippi
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 11:55 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Mississippi -14.0 (-115)
Let's put the pieces of this point spread together. Tulane closed as a 32-point underdog at Oklahoma two weeks ago. That was an 11am kickoff in Norman, where Oklahoma invited as many Tulane supporters as they could because of the hurricane and even painted the field for Tulane. It wasn't exactly an intimidating environment. Two weeks later, in a nationally-televised night game at Ole Miss where Lane Kiffin will surely pull out all of the stops, Tulane is only getting 14 points. So this point spread suggests that a) Oklahoma is 18 points better than Ole Miss (I don't believe that's the case); and b) Something has happened to bring these two teams closer together in the betting market (I don't believe that to be the case, either).
Both Tulane and Ole Miss played FCS schools last week and crushed them. Let's throw both of those games completely out of the equation. Prior to the start of the season, our friends at The GoldSheet had this game lined as Ole Miss -16.5 vs Tulane. Ole Miss exceeded market expectations in Week 1 by beating Louisville by 19 as a 10-point favorite. So in theory, Ole Miss should be moving up in the market, not down.
Everyone saw Tulane's final score at Oklahoma and saw that the Green Wave lost by five. Oklahoma was up 23 at halftime and choked away their lead in the fourth quarter. That's not something Lane Kiffin is guilty of very often. If anything, Tulane's near-comeback in Norman will help Lane Kiffin keep his foot on the gas in this one. This is a home game at night on ESPN2 and he's got the second choice in the Heisman betting market at quarterback (which I'm sure he's well aware of). Ole Miss has off next week, so there shouldn't be any fears of a letdown or look-ahead. This is Tulane's third-straight road game. Lay the points with confidence in this matchup at anything less than -17.
Bearcat Beatdown
Game: (127) Cincinnati at (128) Indiana
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Cincinnati -4.0 (-110)
There were plenty of sharp bettors splashing some cold water on Indiana's season last year and taking their regular season win total under 7.5/8 prior to Week 1. Let's review some of their wins last year. They beat Penn State despite getting out-gained by 277 yards. They beat Wisconsin despite getting out-gained by 125 yards. They got out-gained by 124 yards in their bowl game vs Ole Miss. 2021 feels like it's headed toward more of a traditional .500 Indiana season than their 6-1 regular season from a year ago.
Indiana QB Michael Penix, Jr. hasn't looked great in his return from an offseason knee surgery. In Week 1 against Iowa he threw three interceptions (two that were returned for a touchdown) and last week against Idaho he didn't complete a pass of more than ten yards. “I think it was definitely a very positive step in the right direction for Michael,” head coach Tom Allen said. “I felt last week’s practice was better for him than it was the week before. So as we continue to help this process move forward, I think you’re just going to see him getting better and better.”
Those words are encouraging, but they also sound like the guy still isn't 100-percent. Good luck going against this Cincinnati defense if you're not 100-percent. Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings have Cincinnati as a 10-point favorite in this contest. And let's not downplay Cincinnati's Week 1 win over Miami (Ohio) too much. The RedHawks beat eventual MAC champion Ball State last season, and only lost at Minnesota by five last week. Cincinnati was up 35-0 against them.
At the time of posting, there are a handful of -3.5's out there (Caesars, Westgate SuperBook and Circa), but the consensus is -4 and I'm comfortable laying anything under -6 with Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon.
Game: (117) Boston College at (118) Temple
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: 1H Total Under 29.5 (-110)
A lot of injury questions in this game, and all of them are on the offensive side of the ball. Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovec is likely to miss the rest of this season after suffering an injury last week. The Eagles will hand the ball to Dennis Grosel who has starting experience in the past with some mixed results. Star wide receiver Zay Flowers left last week's game as well. He is expected to be fine and play this week, but how much are you going to push him with Missouri and Clemson next on the schedule?
The same thing is true on the other side of the ball as Temple starting quarterback D'Wan Mathis left last week's game against Akron in a walking boot. He is "day to day" and his status is unlikely to be known until gametime. His backup, Justin Lynch, is a true freshman. Temple lost 61-14 to Rutgers in Week 1, but the defense certainly wasn't responsible for those 61 points. The Owls only gave up 4.6 yards per play to the Scarlet Knights and held them to 5-of-15 on third downs.
Jurkovec was a do-it-all player for Boston College, and I expect them to change a lot in terms of how they will approach the rest of the season. Things will be tightened up on defense, and the playbook may get a little more conservative until Grosel gets his feet wet. Obviously this is a very small sample size, but Temple (No. 115 in plays per game) and Boston College (No. 117) have played at a very slow pace to start the season.
At the time of posting, the first half under 29.5 is available at Caesars (-110) and Heritage (-110). There's a 30.5 at Pinnacle (-132) and DraftKings (-130). I would not play those at that juice, if you can avoid it. I'm comfortable it it at 29.5 at a standard juice. I also wouldn't fault anyone for splitting their bet between the full game and first half.
Flames on Fire
Game: (167) Old Dominion at (168) Liberty
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: 1H Liberty -16.5 (-115)
The betting market continues to sell Liberty a little short. The Flames have covered the spread in their last TEN games. Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings have Liberty favored by 32 in this matchup with Old Dominion.
The Monarchs didn't play last season, so this is a complete re-build for Ricky Rahne at Old Dominion. Even though they beat Hampton last week, ODU has lost 13-straight games against FBS compeition. They've brought in DJ Mack Jr., formerly at UCF, to play quarterback. Mack Jr. brings an intriguing dual-threat element with his legs, but he's been dreadful as a passer. In two seasons of limited duty at UCF plus the first two games of this year at ODU, Mack Jr. is completing 50.6-percent of his passes. He better figure some things out in the passing game because Liberty's rush defense has allowed 0.9 yards per carry so far this season.
I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for going for the full game -27.5, but there are a couple small intangibles that lead me toward the first half instead. First, Liberty is a great first half team. In 2019 they were No. 22 in the country in first half scoring, and last year they were No. 17 at 20.0 points per game. Second, Liberty plays Syracuse next Friday in the Carrier Dome. And while Syracuse certainly doesn't hold much national appeal at the moment, it's still an opportunity for Liberty to take on an ACC opponent. With it being a short week, Liberty may take their foot off the gas a little bit in the second half.
