Tokyo Brandon
Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants
Game: Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants
Date/Time: Sep 3 2021 2:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: B%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-105)
Carpenter has allowed one run in his last 3 starts and Franco is not great but this is Hanwha's first time seeing him and Hanwha has the worst lineup in the league. All signs point to the under. Even the first half team totals add up to 4 not 5. For this number the 1st5 Under 5 is a nice bet for 2%.
(304631) KT Wiz Suwon at (304632) LG Twins
Game: (304631) KT Wiz Suwon at (304632) LG Twins
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 4:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C%
Play: KT Wiz Suwon -135
Ko is a great young pitcher and although has has a shaky start here and there, he is backed by a great bullpen and a great lineup. Son is not quite up to this level with only three starts in his career, I think he will falter a bit vs this power lineup. KT has the lineup, bullpen and SP advantage and should be able to hold it down here.
(304633) Doosan Bears at (304634) Samsung Lions
Game: (304633) Doosan Bears at (304634) Samsung Lions
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 4:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: A%
Play: Doosan Bears +1.5 (-125)
Doosan SP Gwak Been was an easy fade early in the season but lately has put together some great starts. Mike Montgomery, on the other hand, has been getting tagged recently after a great start. These are two teams going in opposite direction and Doosan has the better bullpen. It might be an ugly start but in the end the bullpen should have Doosan in position to at least tie. Take them with the +1.5.
(304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: C%
Play: Total Over 3.5 (-105)
I am keeping this a 3% play because Rakuten is at home and may lose one inning of at bats. My numbers have Rakuten scoring 4.85 here so 3.5 is a play. Imai for Seibu is very spotty and is backed by a terrible bullpen. Rakuten can score 4 in any inning with sluggers like Asamura and Okajima and should be able to get over the 3.5 hurdle today.
(304139) Hiroshima Carp at (304140) Yakult Swallows
Game: (304139) Hiroshima Carp at (304140) Yakult Swallows
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: C%
Play: Yakult Swallows -128
My numbers have Yakult a 58% chance to win which is -145. Take them anything 145 or better. Cy Sneed was a disaster to start his Japan campaign but lately he has allowed only 4 runs in 3 starts and is looking good. Takahashi for the Carp has allowed 12 run in his last three starts. Yakult has the SP, lineup and bullpen advantages here so take them to win on the money line.
(304133) Yokohama BayStars at (304134) Chunichi Dragons
Game: (304133) Yokohama BayStars at (304134) Chunichi Dragons
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: A%
Play: 1H Total Under 3.0 (-110)
This is strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness which usually ends in a stuck in the mud game. Yanagi has allowed 2 runs his last three starts and Romero has not been quite as sharp but he faces the worst lineup in the game. 3 is low but I like it for a small 1% play.
(304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: C%
Play: Rakuten Gold. Eagles -125
This is available anywhere from 120 to 140 I got it for 125 at Pinnacle. Kishi hit a bump in the road last game but take that start away and he has been great. His FIP also shows that was an outlier. Imai is good and bad but vs Rakuten he has a 4.50 ERA and they should be able to get to him and get to that terrible bullpen. Take Rakuten on the money line. They are 10-4 vs Seibu as well this season.
Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants
Game: Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants
Date/Time: Sep 3 2021 2:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: B%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-105)
Carpenter has allowed one run in his last 3 starts and Franco is not great but this is Hanwha's first time seeing him and Hanwha has the worst lineup in the league. All signs point to the under. Even the first half team totals add up to 4 not 5. For this number the 1st5 Under 5 is a nice bet for 2%.
(304631) KT Wiz Suwon at (304632) LG Twins
Game: (304631) KT Wiz Suwon at (304632) LG Twins
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 4:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C%
Play: KT Wiz Suwon -135
Ko is a great young pitcher and although has has a shaky start here and there, he is backed by a great bullpen and a great lineup. Son is not quite up to this level with only three starts in his career, I think he will falter a bit vs this power lineup. KT has the lineup, bullpen and SP advantage and should be able to hold it down here.
(304633) Doosan Bears at (304634) Samsung Lions
Game: (304633) Doosan Bears at (304634) Samsung Lions
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 4:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: A%
Play: Doosan Bears +1.5 (-125)
Doosan SP Gwak Been was an easy fade early in the season but lately has put together some great starts. Mike Montgomery, on the other hand, has been getting tagged recently after a great start. These are two teams going in opposite direction and Doosan has the better bullpen. It might be an ugly start but in the end the bullpen should have Doosan in position to at least tie. Take them with the +1.5.
(304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: C%
Play: Total Over 3.5 (-105)
I am keeping this a 3% play because Rakuten is at home and may lose one inning of at bats. My numbers have Rakuten scoring 4.85 here so 3.5 is a play. Imai for Seibu is very spotty and is backed by a terrible bullpen. Rakuten can score 4 in any inning with sluggers like Asamura and Okajima and should be able to get over the 3.5 hurdle today.
(304139) Hiroshima Carp at (304140) Yakult Swallows
Game: (304139) Hiroshima Carp at (304140) Yakult Swallows
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: C%
Play: Yakult Swallows -128
My numbers have Yakult a 58% chance to win which is -145. Take them anything 145 or better. Cy Sneed was a disaster to start his Japan campaign but lately he has allowed only 4 runs in 3 starts and is looking good. Takahashi for the Carp has allowed 12 run in his last three starts. Yakult has the SP, lineup and bullpen advantages here so take them to win on the money line.
(304133) Yokohama BayStars at (304134) Chunichi Dragons
Game: (304133) Yokohama BayStars at (304134) Chunichi Dragons
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: A%
Play: 1H Total Under 3.0 (-110)
This is strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness which usually ends in a stuck in the mud game. Yanagi has allowed 2 runs his last three starts and Romero has not been quite as sharp but he faces the worst lineup in the game. 3 is low but I like it for a small 1% play.
(304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: C%
Play: Rakuten Gold. Eagles -125
This is available anywhere from 120 to 140 I got it for 125 at Pinnacle. Kishi hit a bump in the road last game but take that start away and he has been great. His FIP also shows that was an outlier. Imai is good and bad but vs Rakuten he has a 4.50 ERA and they should be able to get to him and get to that terrible bullpen. Take Rakuten on the money line. They are 10-4 vs Seibu as well this season.
JM Sports
Game: (165) Penn State at (166) Wisconsin
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Penn State +5.5 (-110)
C unit Penn State (+5.5) @ Wisconsin - 12:00 PM ET KICK-OFF –
This opening week match-up may have as big (if not bigger) of an impact on the rest of the season as any. These two B10 teams face off early, both looking to bounce back after a rough season. Both teams have QB’s how have some experience, and has impressed in spots, but they also both have shown inconsistencies. Penn State is 7-2 vs. WIS in the L9 meetings, and they ended the season LY going 4-1 ATS in the L5. The Nittany Lions are 6-3 ATS in the L9 games on the road, and they look to take that to Wisconsin. The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in the L5 home games (favorite in all 5), even though they outscored opponents 94-18 in the first two games LY, that deficit fell, after WIS scored only 104 points in the L5 games total, with the offense struggling to put as many points on the board. While they had a powerful defense, they only outscored opponents on average by a score 25-17, and the competition in those games doesn’t compare to a top 20 Penn State team, that should be able to cut that 25-17 score to cover the spread, and even potentially take the opener in an upset.
Game: (191) Oregon State at (192) Purdue
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Oregon State +7.0 (-110)
C unit Oregon State (+7.0) @ Purdue - 7:00 PM ET KICK-OFF –
The biggest story of this game is a struggling defense of Purdue, they ended as the #59 defense last season but for years they have struggled to put together a solid unit as a whole. On top of the fact that the offense was ranked worse then the defense. Even though the offense has 9 returning starters, they have struggled upfront, and a single top-tier wide receiver isn’t enough to shut down a whole defense. The boilermakers haven’t covered since the opener last year, and the underdog has covered in 13 out of the L14 games that Purdue has been involved in. Oregon State has recently been THE best team as an underdog on the road, winning 8 straight games (and 9 straight on the road overall). They have gotten progressively better under Smith and have put up solid offensive numbers recently, the Beavers have 10 returning starters, adding a Colorado transfer QB to already solid depth at both the WR and RB position, all playing behind 5 returning offensive linemen against an aforementioned unproven defense.
Game: (195) Baylor at (196) Texas State
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Baylor -14.0 (-110)
C unit Baylor (-14) @ Texas State - 7:00 PM ET KICK-OFF –
Texas State is a much improved team, that is continuing to improve, but they have a long way to go.. They allowed close to 500 yards/game last season, and 44.7 PPG in the L6 games, and even though they may lead in terms of experience, will that really be enough? This offense may be able to put together a nice scoring drive or two, but it will be difficult to make it a more common occurrence then that, even at an up-tempo pace against this stellar Baylor defense, a unit that returned almost every key starter in Aranda’s pride & joy, defense. Texas State has severely struggled in containing the run, enough so that even a team like Baylor, who may not have a top caliber run-game, can still take advantage of this flaw. Baylor has also improved their offensive line, and they have a promising receiving core working with a new OC who really could bring a new and improved passing game back to Baylor.
Game: (213) LSU at (214) UCLA
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 8:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: LSU -2.5 (-110)
D unit LSU (-2.5) @ UCLA - 8:30 PM ET KICK-OFF –
Absolutely my top play going into the first full Saturday of college football. Although it may be the first real Saturday, UCLA is already coming off a big W in week 0 against Hawaii. Even though the game was a blowout, the Bruins didn’t look nearly as good as the score reflected, they won’t be able to run the ball at will like they did, and they only averaged 6.5 yards/pass attempt. 17 points in the blowout came off of turnovers & special teams, and didn’t result from UCLA offense specifically and they are going up against a defense that is significantly bigger, stronger, and more experienced then Hawaii. UCLA has had a somewhat questionable defense of late, allowing 38.2 games to opponents in the L9, w/ the #71 defense last season, and now they are going up against a LSU offense that was #34 last season, with a VERY talented roster, full of options at the skill positions, including Boutte and a multitude of running backs. The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS as a F including 6-1 ATS in non-conference games s/ 2019, and they have excelled on the road, going 16-6 ATS under Orgeron. LSU has won 4 straight season openers vs. PAC-12 opponents, and even though they may be starting a back-up QB, this “back-up” is proven, and let the team to two big upset wins (including a HUGE upset vs. Florida). LSU struggled last season (but they had the LEAST returning starters LY w/ only 5), after a long season and dropping last years opener, I don’t think a more experienced LSU team will allow another opening week loss, especially against a Chip Kelly team that is 6-11 ATS @ H since he took over at UCLA.
Game: (165) Penn State at (166) Wisconsin
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Penn State +5.5 (-110)
C unit Penn State (+5.5) @ Wisconsin - 12:00 PM ET KICK-OFF –
This opening week match-up may have as big (if not bigger) of an impact on the rest of the season as any. These two B10 teams face off early, both looking to bounce back after a rough season. Both teams have QB’s how have some experience, and has impressed in spots, but they also both have shown inconsistencies. Penn State is 7-2 vs. WIS in the L9 meetings, and they ended the season LY going 4-1 ATS in the L5. The Nittany Lions are 6-3 ATS in the L9 games on the road, and they look to take that to Wisconsin. The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in the L5 home games (favorite in all 5), even though they outscored opponents 94-18 in the first two games LY, that deficit fell, after WIS scored only 104 points in the L5 games total, with the offense struggling to put as many points on the board. While they had a powerful defense, they only outscored opponents on average by a score 25-17, and the competition in those games doesn’t compare to a top 20 Penn State team, that should be able to cut that 25-17 score to cover the spread, and even potentially take the opener in an upset.
Game: (191) Oregon State at (192) Purdue
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Oregon State +7.0 (-110)
C unit Oregon State (+7.0) @ Purdue - 7:00 PM ET KICK-OFF –
The biggest story of this game is a struggling defense of Purdue, they ended as the #59 defense last season but for years they have struggled to put together a solid unit as a whole. On top of the fact that the offense was ranked worse then the defense. Even though the offense has 9 returning starters, they have struggled upfront, and a single top-tier wide receiver isn’t enough to shut down a whole defense. The boilermakers haven’t covered since the opener last year, and the underdog has covered in 13 out of the L14 games that Purdue has been involved in. Oregon State has recently been THE best team as an underdog on the road, winning 8 straight games (and 9 straight on the road overall). They have gotten progressively better under Smith and have put up solid offensive numbers recently, the Beavers have 10 returning starters, adding a Colorado transfer QB to already solid depth at both the WR and RB position, all playing behind 5 returning offensive linemen against an aforementioned unproven defense.
Game: (195) Baylor at (196) Texas State
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Baylor -14.0 (-110)
C unit Baylor (-14) @ Texas State - 7:00 PM ET KICK-OFF –
Texas State is a much improved team, that is continuing to improve, but they have a long way to go.. They allowed close to 500 yards/game last season, and 44.7 PPG in the L6 games, and even though they may lead in terms of experience, will that really be enough? This offense may be able to put together a nice scoring drive or two, but it will be difficult to make it a more common occurrence then that, even at an up-tempo pace against this stellar Baylor defense, a unit that returned almost every key starter in Aranda’s pride & joy, defense. Texas State has severely struggled in containing the run, enough so that even a team like Baylor, who may not have a top caliber run-game, can still take advantage of this flaw. Baylor has also improved their offensive line, and they have a promising receiving core working with a new OC who really could bring a new and improved passing game back to Baylor.
Game: (213) LSU at (214) UCLA
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 8:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: LSU -2.5 (-110)
D unit LSU (-2.5) @ UCLA - 8:30 PM ET KICK-OFF –
Absolutely my top play going into the first full Saturday of college football. Although it may be the first real Saturday, UCLA is already coming off a big W in week 0 against Hawaii. Even though the game was a blowout, the Bruins didn’t look nearly as good as the score reflected, they won’t be able to run the ball at will like they did, and they only averaged 6.5 yards/pass attempt. 17 points in the blowout came off of turnovers & special teams, and didn’t result from UCLA offense specifically and they are going up against a defense that is significantly bigger, stronger, and more experienced then Hawaii. UCLA has had a somewhat questionable defense of late, allowing 38.2 games to opponents in the L9, w/ the #71 defense last season, and now they are going up against a LSU offense that was #34 last season, with a VERY talented roster, full of options at the skill positions, including Boutte and a multitude of running backs. The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS as a F including 6-1 ATS in non-conference games s/ 2019, and they have excelled on the road, going 16-6 ATS under Orgeron. LSU has won 4 straight season openers vs. PAC-12 opponents, and even though they may be starting a back-up QB, this “back-up” is proven, and let the team to two big upset wins (including a HUGE upset vs. Florida). LSU struggled last season (but they had the LEAST returning starters LY w/ only 5), after a long season and dropping last years opener, I don’t think a more experienced LSU team will allow another opening week loss, especially against a Chip Kelly team that is 6-11 ATS @ H since he took over at UCLA.
