NCAAF Sharp Report
3:30 p.m. ET: Hawaii at UCLA
Hawaii went 5-4 last season, capped off with a 28-14 win over Houston in the New Mexico Bowl. Their win total this year is 6 with the over juiced to -145. Meanwhile, UCLA went 3-4 last season, starting off 3-2 but losing their final two games. Their win total is 7 this season with even -110 juice on both sides. This line opened with UCLA listed as a 17-point home favorite. Both Pros and Joes are laying the points with the home favorite, which has driven the Bruins from -17 to -17.5. Some books reached -18 and took in some buyback on Hawaii at the inflated number. UCLA returns 20 starters from last season while Hawaii returns 18. Pros have also hit the under. It opened at a high 69.5 and has ticked down to 67.5. At BetMGM, the under is receiving 52% of bets but nearly 60% of the money, signaling a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy.
9:30 p.m. ET: UTEP at New Mexico State
This late night matchup features two bottom feeders with low 2021 win totals. UTEP went 3-5 last season, starting off hot with a 3-1 record before losing four straight to end the year. Their win total is 3 this season, with both sides juiced to -110. Meanwhile, New Mexico State played just two games last season due to COVID, going 1-1 overall. Their win total is just 1.5 this season, with the over juiced to -125. This line opened with UTEP listed as an 8-point road favorite. Sharps are fading lowly New Mexico State, steaming UTEP up from -8 to -10. At BetMGM, UTEP is receiving 62% of bets but a whopping 82% of the money, evidence of big money wagers in their favor. Sharp money has also hammered this over, driving the total up from 56.5 to 59. The forecast calls for high 80s with little to no wind. Historically, hot temperatures have benefited overs as the defense is gassed and the offense takes over. When the temperature is 85 or more, the over is roughly 54% the past decade.
3:30 p.m. ET: Hawaii at UCLA
Hawaii went 5-4 last season, capped off with a 28-14 win over Houston in the New Mexico Bowl. Their win total this year is 6 with the over juiced to -145. Meanwhile, UCLA went 3-4 last season, starting off 3-2 but losing their final two games. Their win total is 7 this season with even -110 juice on both sides. This line opened with UCLA listed as a 17-point home favorite. Both Pros and Joes are laying the points with the home favorite, which has driven the Bruins from -17 to -17.5. Some books reached -18 and took in some buyback on Hawaii at the inflated number. UCLA returns 20 starters from last season while Hawaii returns 18. Pros have also hit the under. It opened at a high 69.5 and has ticked down to 67.5. At BetMGM, the under is receiving 52% of bets but nearly 60% of the money, signaling a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy.
9:30 p.m. ET: UTEP at New Mexico State
This late night matchup features two bottom feeders with low 2021 win totals. UTEP went 3-5 last season, starting off hot with a 3-1 record before losing four straight to end the year. Their win total is 3 this season, with both sides juiced to -110. Meanwhile, New Mexico State played just two games last season due to COVID, going 1-1 overall. Their win total is just 1.5 this season, with the over juiced to -125. This line opened with UTEP listed as an 8-point road favorite. Sharps are fading lowly New Mexico State, steaming UTEP up from -8 to -10. At BetMGM, UTEP is receiving 62% of bets but a whopping 82% of the money, evidence of big money wagers in their favor. Sharp money has also hammered this over, driving the total up from 56.5 to 59. The forecast calls for high 80s with little to no wind. Historically, hot temperatures have benefited overs as the defense is gassed and the offense takes over. When the temperature is 85 or more, the over is roughly 54% the past decade.
