Ian Parker
Jared Cannonier (-155) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+130): Cannonier (best bet)
Kelvin Gastelum will be stepping up on short notice to take on the very dangerous Jared Cannonier. Stylistically, this fight is a nightmare matchup for Gastelum. Look for Cannonier to defend Gastelum's takedown attempts with ease and get the better of the striking en route to victory.
Parker Porter (+160) vs. Chase Sherman (-190): Sherman (best bet)
This fight should be a lot of fun as both men love to keep it on the feet and strike. Look for Chase Sherman to be the more technical striker and potentially carry more power as well. Porter will try to press forward, but the high-volume output from Sherman will be too much for Porter.
Alexandre Pantoja (-165) vs. Brandon Royval (+140): Pantoja (best bet)
Alexandre Pantoja is coming off his most impressive win to date, a triumph over Manel Kape in February. He will look to continue that success as he takes on Brandon Royval. The 29-year-old Royval is a talented fighter, but in the areas where he is good, Pantoja is better. This is a very tough matchup for Royval, considering he is coming back from an extended layoff due to injury.
Brian Kelleher (-175) vs. Domingo Pilarte (+150): Kelleher (best bet)
Brian Kelleher will be looking to bounce back from a loss to Ricky Simon as he takes on Domingo Pilarte. Stylistically, this fight favors Kelleher, who will be the better striker and wrestler. Pilarte throws very wild punches and tends not to have much of a game plan. Look for Kelleher to counter Pilarte's wild punches and outland him.
William Knight (-195) vs. Fabio Cherant (+165): Knight (best bet)
We last saw Cherant get submitted by Alonzo Menifield back in March. Unfortunately for Cherant, he is entering another unfavorable matchup against Knight. Look for Knight to be the better striker and eventually take the fight to the floor, where he should dominate Cherant with his ground-and-pound.
Clay Guida (+140) vs. Mark Madsen (-165): Madsen (lean)
Looking to keep his undefeated record intact, Mark Madsen will face his toughest test to date when he takes on Clay Guida. The 39-year-old Guida is a cardio machine, but while he usually relies on his wrestling, he will have to try a different path as Madsen will be the better wrestler. Look for Madsen to close the distance very early and put Guida on his back. As long as his cardio has improved and he can control the pace of the fight, he should be able to outwrestle Guida and secure the victory.
Vinc Pichel (-115) vs. Austin Hubbard (-105): Pichel (lean)
Riding a two-fight winning streak, Vinc Pichel will be looking to make it three when he takes on Austin Hubbard. Look for Pichel to defend the takedown attempts of Hubbard and keep the fight standing, where he will have the advantage. Expect Pichel to land heavy shots on Hubbard and control the fight on the feet.
Austin Lingo (+115) vs. Luis Saldana (-135): Saldana (lean)
Luis Saldana will be looking to continue his winning ways as he takes on Austin Lingo. Both men are very well-rounded fighters, but Saldana has the bigger advantage on the feet. Look for Saldana to outstrike Lingo, forcing him to try to take the fight to the ground. I expect Saldana to be able to fend off the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, where he will get the win.
Roosevelt Roberts (-150) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+125): Bahamondes
Roosevelt Roberts will be looking to end his two-fight losing streak as he takes on young prospect Ignacio Bahamondes. The 23-year-old Bahamondes recently lost a split decision after also missing weight for the first time in his career. Look for him to be the better striker. He will need to stay off the cage and fend off the takedowns of Roberts. If he can do that and keep the fight on the feet, he should be able to get the win.
Jared Cannonier (-155) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+130): Cannonier (best bet)
Kelvin Gastelum will be stepping up on short notice to take on the very dangerous Jared Cannonier. Stylistically, this fight is a nightmare matchup for Gastelum. Look for Cannonier to defend Gastelum's takedown attempts with ease and get the better of the striking en route to victory.
Parker Porter (+160) vs. Chase Sherman (-190): Sherman (best bet)
This fight should be a lot of fun as both men love to keep it on the feet and strike. Look for Chase Sherman to be the more technical striker and potentially carry more power as well. Porter will try to press forward, but the high-volume output from Sherman will be too much for Porter.
Alexandre Pantoja (-165) vs. Brandon Royval (+140): Pantoja (best bet)
Alexandre Pantoja is coming off his most impressive win to date, a triumph over Manel Kape in February. He will look to continue that success as he takes on Brandon Royval. The 29-year-old Royval is a talented fighter, but in the areas where he is good, Pantoja is better. This is a very tough matchup for Royval, considering he is coming back from an extended layoff due to injury.
Brian Kelleher (-175) vs. Domingo Pilarte (+150): Kelleher (best bet)
Brian Kelleher will be looking to bounce back from a loss to Ricky Simon as he takes on Domingo Pilarte. Stylistically, this fight favors Kelleher, who will be the better striker and wrestler. Pilarte throws very wild punches and tends not to have much of a game plan. Look for Kelleher to counter Pilarte's wild punches and outland him.
William Knight (-195) vs. Fabio Cherant (+165): Knight (best bet)
We last saw Cherant get submitted by Alonzo Menifield back in March. Unfortunately for Cherant, he is entering another unfavorable matchup against Knight. Look for Knight to be the better striker and eventually take the fight to the floor, where he should dominate Cherant with his ground-and-pound.
Clay Guida (+140) vs. Mark Madsen (-165): Madsen (lean)
Looking to keep his undefeated record intact, Mark Madsen will face his toughest test to date when he takes on Clay Guida. The 39-year-old Guida is a cardio machine, but while he usually relies on his wrestling, he will have to try a different path as Madsen will be the better wrestler. Look for Madsen to close the distance very early and put Guida on his back. As long as his cardio has improved and he can control the pace of the fight, he should be able to outwrestle Guida and secure the victory.
Vinc Pichel (-115) vs. Austin Hubbard (-105): Pichel (lean)
Riding a two-fight winning streak, Vinc Pichel will be looking to make it three when he takes on Austin Hubbard. Look for Pichel to defend the takedown attempts of Hubbard and keep the fight standing, where he will have the advantage. Expect Pichel to land heavy shots on Hubbard and control the fight on the feet.
Austin Lingo (+115) vs. Luis Saldana (-135): Saldana (lean)
Luis Saldana will be looking to continue his winning ways as he takes on Austin Lingo. Both men are very well-rounded fighters, but Saldana has the bigger advantage on the feet. Look for Saldana to outstrike Lingo, forcing him to try to take the fight to the ground. I expect Saldana to be able to fend off the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, where he will get the win.
Roosevelt Roberts (-150) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+125): Bahamondes
Roosevelt Roberts will be looking to end his two-fight losing streak as he takes on young prospect Ignacio Bahamondes. The 23-year-old Bahamondes recently lost a split decision after also missing weight for the first time in his career. Look for him to be the better striker. He will need to stay off the cage and fend off the takedowns of Roberts. If he can do that and keep the fight on the feet, he should be able to get the win.
Kyle Marley
UFC
Jared Cannonier (-155) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+130): Gastelum by unanimous decision
I think this is going to be a real close fight and I would have lined it closer to PK. Cannonier will be the bigger, stronger, and more powerful fighter in this matchup. He is also close to eight years older and less experienced. He isn't a high-paced striker and it's really the power that he relies on. If this fight ends in the first half of the fight, I will say it probably means Cannonier got a KO. However, if this fight goes the distance, I think Gastelum can edge it out. Give me Gastelum to win three or more rounds here to get a decision win.
Mark Madsen (-170) vs. Clay Guida (+145): Madsen by submission
I expect Madsen to dominate the early portion of this fight with his high-level wrestling. He does slow down though, so if he can't finish, I would expect Guida to come back and win the third round. It could come down to what happens in that second round if this fight goes to a decision. However, I keep seeing Madsen getting a choke in this fight so I will take him to win by submission in the first or second round. I do think I would favor him to win the second round as well though if this does end up going the distance.
Chase Sherman (-190) vs. Parker Porter (+160): Porter by split decision
This is a low-level heavyweight fight, but it's hard for me to handicap Sherman as a 2-1 favorite over any UFC fighter. Sherman should have the speed advantage and he is the taller and longer fighter. Porter should have more power though and he is more likely to land takedowns in this matchup. I do agree that Sherman should be the favorite, but IMO the value side is Porter at the current line.
Vinc Pichel (-115) vs. Austin Hubbard (-105): Pichel by unanimous decision
I expect Pichel to have the early advantage in this fight with his wrestling. I think he needs to use his wrestling to win this fight, but it probably has to be from winning rounds 1 and 2. He is on the wrong side of 30 so I expect him to slow down the more he wrestles, and Hubbard has the gas tank to come back and win the last half of the fight with his striking. If you like the Hubbard side, I think you will see a much better betting line after round 1 so it could be a good live betting opportunity. I am going to take Pichel to grind out two rounds here though, so he is my pick.
Alexandre Pantoja (-175) vs. Brandon Royval (+150): Pantoja by unanimous decision
This is our FOTN right here. I expect this to be a fun and high-paced fight. Both guys are well-rounded so we could see some awesome grappling exchanges, but I think the majority of this fight plays out on the feet. Royval might be the more dangerous of the two and more likely to win ITD, but I am going to take Pantoja to take this one on the scorecards because I think he is a bit better, more experienced, and he has fought and beat the better competition.
Luis Saldana (-120) vs. Austin Lingo (+100): Saldana by unanimous decision
This could be a close fight, but I am going to side with Saldana. I give Lingo the edge in boxing, pressure and power. Everywhere else, I would give the advantage to Saldana, and I think his movement and length will give Lingo problems on the feet. I think he will be the slicker striker while Lingo is trying to knock his head off. I think Saldana can get a KO of his own, but I will take him to win two or three rounds on the scorecards.
Brian Kelleher (-175) vs. Domingo Pilarte (+150): Pilarte by submission
I know I am going to be in the minority on this fight but give me the underdog. I think the skills are there with him, I just don't love his chin or his volume. I do think he is the more skilled striker, mainly with his kicks, and I think he is the better wrestler/grappler in this matchup. He is also going to be a lot bigger than Kelleher. Kelleher is more experienced, has higher volume, and he can finish with a KO or a guillotine choke here. I just think he is the guy that ruins everyone's parlay this week. Give me Pilarte to get a submission upset.
Bea Malecki (-150) vs. Josiane Nunes (+125): Nunes by (T)KO
Malecki is going to have a seven-inch height and reach advantage in this matchup. She is going to be the more technical striker and she can rack up volume as well. She is very hittable and sloppy at times though and Nunes throws heat. I do think this is a KO or bust type fight for Nunes, but I think she gets it. I don't like the ML odds, but the TKO prop could be a play to look at when it is released.
William Knight (-180) vs. Fabio Cherant (+155): Knight by (T)KO
Knight is all muscle and power. He isn't great at anything, but his power is a worry on the feet and the ground, and it helps his wrestling. He has nothing to offer off his back, but I don't think that Cherant is the guy to test that. I think Cherant needs a submission or big KO punch to win this fight. I am going to side with Knight to bully him until he gets a GNP stoppage.
Roosevelt Roberts (-150) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+125): Roberts by submission
This looks like a striker vs. grappler matchup. Both guys are fairly well-rounded, but Roberts' big edge should be on the ground, and Bahamondes is the better striker with higher output. I think the winner of this fight could end up looking like they should have been a big favorite, but it is hard to see how this fight plays out with their (should be) opposite game plans. I am going to lean with Roberts to get this fight to the mat and work his way to a submission. He could very well get outworked and dominated on the feet though so it's hard to handicap this fight.
Ramiz Brahimaj (-140) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+120): Brahimaj by submission
I like Brahimaj in this fight but Palatnikov should have the striking advantage. I think Brahimaj should have a big edge on the mat and in his pre-UFC film, he is an aggressive grappler. He never even tried to wrestle in his UFC debut though, so his fight IQ is a big question mark, but I think we are getting a better line because of it. I think he goes back to his bread and butter in this fight and looks for takedowns early. I think he gets them and then locks up an early submission.
UFC
Jared Cannonier (-155) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+130): Gastelum by unanimous decision
I think this is going to be a real close fight and I would have lined it closer to PK. Cannonier will be the bigger, stronger, and more powerful fighter in this matchup. He is also close to eight years older and less experienced. He isn't a high-paced striker and it's really the power that he relies on. If this fight ends in the first half of the fight, I will say it probably means Cannonier got a KO. However, if this fight goes the distance, I think Gastelum can edge it out. Give me Gastelum to win three or more rounds here to get a decision win.
Mark Madsen (-170) vs. Clay Guida (+145): Madsen by submission
I expect Madsen to dominate the early portion of this fight with his high-level wrestling. He does slow down though, so if he can't finish, I would expect Guida to come back and win the third round. It could come down to what happens in that second round if this fight goes to a decision. However, I keep seeing Madsen getting a choke in this fight so I will take him to win by submission in the first or second round. I do think I would favor him to win the second round as well though if this does end up going the distance.
Chase Sherman (-190) vs. Parker Porter (+160): Porter by split decision
This is a low-level heavyweight fight, but it's hard for me to handicap Sherman as a 2-1 favorite over any UFC fighter. Sherman should have the speed advantage and he is the taller and longer fighter. Porter should have more power though and he is more likely to land takedowns in this matchup. I do agree that Sherman should be the favorite, but IMO the value side is Porter at the current line.
Vinc Pichel (-115) vs. Austin Hubbard (-105): Pichel by unanimous decision
I expect Pichel to have the early advantage in this fight with his wrestling. I think he needs to use his wrestling to win this fight, but it probably has to be from winning rounds 1 and 2. He is on the wrong side of 30 so I expect him to slow down the more he wrestles, and Hubbard has the gas tank to come back and win the last half of the fight with his striking. If you like the Hubbard side, I think you will see a much better betting line after round 1 so it could be a good live betting opportunity. I am going to take Pichel to grind out two rounds here though, so he is my pick.
Alexandre Pantoja (-175) vs. Brandon Royval (+150): Pantoja by unanimous decision
This is our FOTN right here. I expect this to be a fun and high-paced fight. Both guys are well-rounded so we could see some awesome grappling exchanges, but I think the majority of this fight plays out on the feet. Royval might be the more dangerous of the two and more likely to win ITD, but I am going to take Pantoja to take this one on the scorecards because I think he is a bit better, more experienced, and he has fought and beat the better competition.
Luis Saldana (-120) vs. Austin Lingo (+100): Saldana by unanimous decision
This could be a close fight, but I am going to side with Saldana. I give Lingo the edge in boxing, pressure and power. Everywhere else, I would give the advantage to Saldana, and I think his movement and length will give Lingo problems on the feet. I think he will be the slicker striker while Lingo is trying to knock his head off. I think Saldana can get a KO of his own, but I will take him to win two or three rounds on the scorecards.
Brian Kelleher (-175) vs. Domingo Pilarte (+150): Pilarte by submission
I know I am going to be in the minority on this fight but give me the underdog. I think the skills are there with him, I just don't love his chin or his volume. I do think he is the more skilled striker, mainly with his kicks, and I think he is the better wrestler/grappler in this matchup. He is also going to be a lot bigger than Kelleher. Kelleher is more experienced, has higher volume, and he can finish with a KO or a guillotine choke here. I just think he is the guy that ruins everyone's parlay this week. Give me Pilarte to get a submission upset.
Bea Malecki (-150) vs. Josiane Nunes (+125): Nunes by (T)KO
Malecki is going to have a seven-inch height and reach advantage in this matchup. She is going to be the more technical striker and she can rack up volume as well. She is very hittable and sloppy at times though and Nunes throws heat. I do think this is a KO or bust type fight for Nunes, but I think she gets it. I don't like the ML odds, but the TKO prop could be a play to look at when it is released.
William Knight (-180) vs. Fabio Cherant (+155): Knight by (T)KO
Knight is all muscle and power. He isn't great at anything, but his power is a worry on the feet and the ground, and it helps his wrestling. He has nothing to offer off his back, but I don't think that Cherant is the guy to test that. I think Cherant needs a submission or big KO punch to win this fight. I am going to side with Knight to bully him until he gets a GNP stoppage.
Roosevelt Roberts (-150) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+125): Roberts by submission
This looks like a striker vs. grappler matchup. Both guys are fairly well-rounded, but Roberts' big edge should be on the ground, and Bahamondes is the better striker with higher output. I think the winner of this fight could end up looking like they should have been a big favorite, but it is hard to see how this fight plays out with their (should be) opposite game plans. I am going to lean with Roberts to get this fight to the mat and work his way to a submission. He could very well get outworked and dominated on the feet though so it's hard to handicap this fight.
Ramiz Brahimaj (-140) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+120): Brahimaj by submission
I like Brahimaj in this fight but Palatnikov should have the striking advantage. I think Brahimaj should have a big edge on the mat and in his pre-UFC film, he is an aggressive grappler. He never even tried to wrestle in his UFC debut though, so his fight IQ is a big question mark, but I think we are getting a better line because of it. I think he goes back to his bread and butter in this fight and looks for takedowns early. I think he gets them and then locks up an early submission.
hno:
