Kyle Marley
Derrick Lewis (+310) vs. Ciryl Gane (-380): Gane by decision
I don't see Lewis winning this fight any way other than by knockout. Gane is a much better overall striker, and he is going to double up Lewis on strikes. He is also better on the ground and has better cardio. Lewis has huge power and it only takes one punch for him to end a fight. I am going to say he doesn't get the KO and either gets knocked out himself or gets picked apart all five rounds.
Jose Aldo (-130) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+110): Munhoz by decision
Aldo is the better and more technical striker, but Munhoz is proficient as well and he is the guy that should be leading in volume. I think Aldo has a better chance at a finish, but I would slightly favor Munhoz in a decision. I am going to take the underdog to win two rounds on the scorecards.
Michael Chiesa (+110) vs. Vicente Luque (-130): Luque by submission
Chiesa has to get this fight to the mat and he needs a submission, or he has to win two rounds with top control. Luque should dominate this fight on the feet, and he is a good grappler as well, so it won't be easy for Chiesa to work his game. I am going to pick Luque because he has more ways to win, but Chiesa is a tough guy to prepare for. If he wins this fight, he might look like he should have been a big favorite.
Tecia Torres (-135) vs. Angela Hill (+115): Torres by decision
Hill has the much better hands and, in a 15-minute striking match, I would favor her because of her boxing and higher volume. Torres has the better kicks and movement on the feet, but her big advantage will be on the mat. These two fought six years ago and Torres had 9 minutes of control time off two takedowns. Hill has improved a ton since, but I still slightly favor Torres because her advantage on the ground is the biggest edge.
Song Yadong (-110) vs. Casey Kenney (-110): Kenney by decision
This should be a high-paced and high-level fight, and I expect it to be close. Yadong is the better boxer, faster, and he has good offensive wrestling. Kenney is the better kicker, might be higher-paced and is the better grappler. I will lean with Kenney as my pick because I think he is the one that is more likely to get takedowns and spend time in top control.
Rafael Fiziev (-345) vs. Bobby Green (+285): Fiziev by TKO
I really like Fiziev in this fight. He is one of the best strikers in the division and he is going to be a level above Green on the feet, faster and more powerful. Green should look to mix in takedowns each round, but I don't see him having success with that and I think he gets knocked out at some point.
Vince Morales (+100) vs. Drako Rodriguez (-120): Morales by decision
Morales needs a win to keep his spot on the UFC roster. He is 1-4 in the UFC and his lone win is against the guy who just knocked out Rodriguez in his last fight. I think Morales has the edge on the feet with his boxing-brawling style. I think he is the higher-output striker and is more likely to get a knockout as well. Rodriguez should have the edge on the ground, but I am not confident he can get it there consistently.
Alonzo Menifield (-240) vs. Ed Herman (+200): Menifield by TKO
Menifield is going to have a big power advantage and he should also be the faster striker and better wrestler. The longer this fight goes, the more it will shift into Herman's favor, but he needs to weather an early storm and gas Menifield out to get a win. I think Menifield will be too much for him early.
Manel Kape (-200) vs. Ode Osbourne (+170): Osbourne by decision
Kape should have the striking edge, mainly with his hands and power. Osbourne might have better kicks and he is quick and maybe more active than Kape on the feet. His edge should be on the mat and he is dangerous from the bottom. I think Osbourne can hang on the feet if Kape isn't throwing volume and Osbourne could lock up a submission if this fight hits the mat.
Miles Johns (-200) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+175) : Dos Santos by stoppage
Dos Santos is dangerous, and he can finish this fight anywhere. Johns will have a wrestling edge and the cardio edge as well. He doesn't wrestle much and he isn't a high-enough paced striker to slow Dos Santos down unless he takes an early beating from him and Dos Santos gasses.
Melissa Gatto (-130) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+110): Gatto by submission
It's hard to know what we are going to get from Gatto in her UFC debut because of limited film and she is only 25. But she looks pretty decent on the mat with her submission game. Her striking doesn't look very good and she can spend too much time on her back. Leonardo isn't a big test, but she could win the striking and she can also land takedowns and spend time in top control. I would favor Leonardo in a decision, but I am going to take Gatto to get a submission.
Johnny Munoz (-230) vs. Jamey Simmons (+195): Munoz by submission
Simmons is a wrestler with a strong overhand right. I don't think he is ready for the UFC level, and he is going up against a better wrestler and grappler. I think Munoz dominates on the mat and works his way to a submission
Derrick Lewis (+310) vs. Ciryl Gane (-380): Gane by decision
I don't see Lewis winning this fight any way other than by knockout. Gane is a much better overall striker, and he is going to double up Lewis on strikes. He is also better on the ground and has better cardio. Lewis has huge power and it only takes one punch for him to end a fight. I am going to say he doesn't get the KO and either gets knocked out himself or gets picked apart all five rounds.
Jose Aldo (-130) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+110): Munhoz by decision
Aldo is the better and more technical striker, but Munhoz is proficient as well and he is the guy that should be leading in volume. I think Aldo has a better chance at a finish, but I would slightly favor Munhoz in a decision. I am going to take the underdog to win two rounds on the scorecards.
Michael Chiesa (+110) vs. Vicente Luque (-130): Luque by submission
Chiesa has to get this fight to the mat and he needs a submission, or he has to win two rounds with top control. Luque should dominate this fight on the feet, and he is a good grappler as well, so it won't be easy for Chiesa to work his game. I am going to pick Luque because he has more ways to win, but Chiesa is a tough guy to prepare for. If he wins this fight, he might look like he should have been a big favorite.
Tecia Torres (-135) vs. Angela Hill (+115): Torres by decision
Hill has the much better hands and, in a 15-minute striking match, I would favor her because of her boxing and higher volume. Torres has the better kicks and movement on the feet, but her big advantage will be on the mat. These two fought six years ago and Torres had 9 minutes of control time off two takedowns. Hill has improved a ton since, but I still slightly favor Torres because her advantage on the ground is the biggest edge.
Song Yadong (-110) vs. Casey Kenney (-110): Kenney by decision
This should be a high-paced and high-level fight, and I expect it to be close. Yadong is the better boxer, faster, and he has good offensive wrestling. Kenney is the better kicker, might be higher-paced and is the better grappler. I will lean with Kenney as my pick because I think he is the one that is more likely to get takedowns and spend time in top control.
Rafael Fiziev (-345) vs. Bobby Green (+285): Fiziev by TKO
I really like Fiziev in this fight. He is one of the best strikers in the division and he is going to be a level above Green on the feet, faster and more powerful. Green should look to mix in takedowns each round, but I don't see him having success with that and I think he gets knocked out at some point.
Vince Morales (+100) vs. Drako Rodriguez (-120): Morales by decision
Morales needs a win to keep his spot on the UFC roster. He is 1-4 in the UFC and his lone win is against the guy who just knocked out Rodriguez in his last fight. I think Morales has the edge on the feet with his boxing-brawling style. I think he is the higher-output striker and is more likely to get a knockout as well. Rodriguez should have the edge on the ground, but I am not confident he can get it there consistently.
Alonzo Menifield (-240) vs. Ed Herman (+200): Menifield by TKO
Menifield is going to have a big power advantage and he should also be the faster striker and better wrestler. The longer this fight goes, the more it will shift into Herman's favor, but he needs to weather an early storm and gas Menifield out to get a win. I think Menifield will be too much for him early.
Manel Kape (-200) vs. Ode Osbourne (+170): Osbourne by decision
Kape should have the striking edge, mainly with his hands and power. Osbourne might have better kicks and he is quick and maybe more active than Kape on the feet. His edge should be on the mat and he is dangerous from the bottom. I think Osbourne can hang on the feet if Kape isn't throwing volume and Osbourne could lock up a submission if this fight hits the mat.
Miles Johns (-200) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+175) : Dos Santos by stoppage
Dos Santos is dangerous, and he can finish this fight anywhere. Johns will have a wrestling edge and the cardio edge as well. He doesn't wrestle much and he isn't a high-enough paced striker to slow Dos Santos down unless he takes an early beating from him and Dos Santos gasses.
Melissa Gatto (-130) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+110): Gatto by submission
It's hard to know what we are going to get from Gatto in her UFC debut because of limited film and she is only 25. But she looks pretty decent on the mat with her submission game. Her striking doesn't look very good and she can spend too much time on her back. Leonardo isn't a big test, but she could win the striking and she can also land takedowns and spend time in top control. I would favor Leonardo in a decision, but I am going to take Gatto to get a submission.
Johnny Munoz (-230) vs. Jamey Simmons (+195): Munoz by submission
Simmons is a wrestler with a strong overhand right. I don't think he is ready for the UFC level, and he is going up against a better wrestler and grappler. I think Munoz dominates on the mat and works his way to a submission
Insider Sports Report
D* Seattle (Flexen)/N.Y. Yankees (Heaney) OVER 9.5
Range: 9 to 10
C* Cincinnati (Gutierrez) -1.5 runs -105 over Pittsburgh (Keller)
Range: +115 to -125
C* Kansas City (Keller)/St. Louis (Kim) UNDER 8.5
Range: 9 to -8
National Sports Service
E* L.A. Angels (Barria)/L.A. Dodgers (Urias) UNDER 8.5
C* Cleveland (Morgan) -125 over Detroit (Alexander)
Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> L.A. Angels (Barria)/L.A. Dodgers (Urias) UNDER 8.5
C Unit --> Kansas City (Keller)/St. Louis (Kim) OVER 8.5
C Unit --> Colorado (Gomber) -140 over Miami (Luzardo)
Top Ranks Sports
D★ Miami (Luzardo)/Colorado (Gomber) UNDER 10.5
C★ Tampa Bay (McClanahan)/Baltimore (Watkins) UNDER 10
D* Seattle (Flexen)/N.Y. Yankees (Heaney) OVER 9.5
Range: 9 to 10
C* Cincinnati (Gutierrez) -1.5 runs -105 over Pittsburgh (Keller)
Range: +115 to -125
C* Kansas City (Keller)/St. Louis (Kim) UNDER 8.5
Range: 9 to -8
National Sports Service
E* L.A. Angels (Barria)/L.A. Dodgers (Urias) UNDER 8.5
C* Cleveland (Morgan) -125 over Detroit (Alexander)
Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> L.A. Angels (Barria)/L.A. Dodgers (Urias) UNDER 8.5
C Unit --> Kansas City (Keller)/St. Louis (Kim) OVER 8.5
C Unit --> Colorado (Gomber) -140 over Miami (Luzardo)
Top Ranks Sports
D★ Miami (Luzardo)/Colorado (Gomber) UNDER 10.5
C★ Tampa Bay (McClanahan)/Baltimore (Watkins) UNDER 10
Justin Perri
BOSTON @ TORONTO | 08/07 | 3:07 PM EDT
BOSTON +147
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox had some questionable management last night as they allowed nine runs in an inning. I think they'll bounce back and beat the Jays in the first game of today's important doubleheader. The Sox are now only three games ahead of the Yankees and need to get a win in one of these games. I expect they come out swinging in the first game, as they have been able to get runs on Robbie Ray so far this season, and Nick Pivetta is a better pitcher when away from Fenway. Grab the Sox at plus money in the first game of the doubleheader.
MIAMI @ COLORADO | 08/07 | 8:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -157
ANALYSIS: The Marlins have been much worse on the road (20-36), and the Rockies have been elite at home (36-21). We saw it last night in the 14-2 rout; the Marlins cannot handle the Rockies. Plus, I'm not a big fan of Jesus Luzardo; I think he gives up too many home runs and now he has to pitch at Coors. Austin Gomber has been very good at home. Take the Rockies to win.
DETROIT @ CLEVELAND | 08/07 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: This is a clear-cut Over for me based on who is pitching. Both starters have xwOBAs close to .340, and the Indians' Eli Morgan is carrying an xSLG of .502 and a home ERA of 8.82. Tyler Alexander for Detroit has allowed seven home runs in 26.2 innings on the road, leaving him with a 5.74 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP when away as well. What's worse is his 6.00 ERA since the All-Star break. The hitters should have the advantage today. Go with the Over.
L.A. ANGELS @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/07 | 9:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers have been great at bouncing back in these situations where they probably shouldn't have lost the game before. Julio Urias has been consistent and should keep the Angels to only a couple runs. This play is based more on the Dodgers offense, as I expect they wake up a bit today. Jamie Barria has been solid in his two recent starts, but those were against the Twins and the A's, who have both struggled offensively recently. I like the Dodgers to put some runs on him and win this game by multiple runs.
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 08/07 | 4:05 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: This is another NL East battle in which I'll happily take the Over. Weather is a solid factor; there should be a decent wind boost to make this a better hitting environment than normal at Citizens Bank Park. I also like that the Phillies seem to be going with another bullpen day behind Ranger Suarez, which should give the Mets some decent chances to get some runs up. Plus Bryce Harper is absolutely killing it, and we want that on our side. Go Over 9.5.
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 08/07 | 7:20 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Truist Park is one of the best hitting parks in baseball, and today should be another plus hitting day with low air density and wind blowing out. I make this closer to 9 and would not be surprised if this line closes as such. The Over has hit in eight of the Nationals' last 10 games, which coincides with their choice to rid their bullpen of any decent options. And the Over is a robust 31-20-4 in Braves home games. Grab this one quickly; I don't expect it stays at 8.5 for long.
BOSTON @ TORONTO | 08/07 | 3:07 PM EDT
BOSTON +147
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox had some questionable management last night as they allowed nine runs in an inning. I think they'll bounce back and beat the Jays in the first game of today's important doubleheader. The Sox are now only three games ahead of the Yankees and need to get a win in one of these games. I expect they come out swinging in the first game, as they have been able to get runs on Robbie Ray so far this season, and Nick Pivetta is a better pitcher when away from Fenway. Grab the Sox at plus money in the first game of the doubleheader.
MIAMI @ COLORADO | 08/07 | 8:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -157
ANALYSIS: The Marlins have been much worse on the road (20-36), and the Rockies have been elite at home (36-21). We saw it last night in the 14-2 rout; the Marlins cannot handle the Rockies. Plus, I'm not a big fan of Jesus Luzardo; I think he gives up too many home runs and now he has to pitch at Coors. Austin Gomber has been very good at home. Take the Rockies to win.
DETROIT @ CLEVELAND | 08/07 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: This is a clear-cut Over for me based on who is pitching. Both starters have xwOBAs close to .340, and the Indians' Eli Morgan is carrying an xSLG of .502 and a home ERA of 8.82. Tyler Alexander for Detroit has allowed seven home runs in 26.2 innings on the road, leaving him with a 5.74 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP when away as well. What's worse is his 6.00 ERA since the All-Star break. The hitters should have the advantage today. Go with the Over.
L.A. ANGELS @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/07 | 9:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers have been great at bouncing back in these situations where they probably shouldn't have lost the game before. Julio Urias has been consistent and should keep the Angels to only a couple runs. This play is based more on the Dodgers offense, as I expect they wake up a bit today. Jamie Barria has been solid in his two recent starts, but those were against the Twins and the A's, who have both struggled offensively recently. I like the Dodgers to put some runs on him and win this game by multiple runs.
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 08/07 | 4:05 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: This is another NL East battle in which I'll happily take the Over. Weather is a solid factor; there should be a decent wind boost to make this a better hitting environment than normal at Citizens Bank Park. I also like that the Phillies seem to be going with another bullpen day behind Ranger Suarez, which should give the Mets some decent chances to get some runs up. Plus Bryce Harper is absolutely killing it, and we want that on our side. Go Over 9.5.
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 08/07 | 7:20 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Truist Park is one of the best hitting parks in baseball, and today should be another plus hitting day with low air density and wind blowing out. I make this closer to 9 and would not be surprised if this line closes as such. The Over has hit in eight of the Nationals' last 10 games, which coincides with their choice to rid their bullpen of any decent options. And the Over is a robust 31-20-4 in Braves home games. Grab this one quickly; I don't expect it stays at 8.5 for long.
Kyle Akins
SEATTLE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/07 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -203
ANALYSIS: This is a 10 a.m. West Coast start for Seattle, and with the quick turnaround after a rough loss, I expect the Mariners to not be quite into this game. New York won last night’s game in a walk-off in 11 innings, 3-2. The Yankees are 8-0 since September 2019 past the first game of a series coming off a walk-off win. All three of New York’s runs came late off the Seattle bullpen. The Yankees are 11-0 since May 2021 past the first game of a series at home after they scored more runs off the bullpen than the opposing starter last game.
SEATTLE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/07 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -203
ANALYSIS: This is a 10 a.m. West Coast start for Seattle, and with the quick turnaround after a rough loss, I expect the Mariners to not be quite into this game. New York won last night’s game in a walk-off in 11 innings, 3-2. The Yankees are 8-0 since September 2019 past the first game of a series coming off a walk-off win. All three of New York’s runs came late off the Seattle bullpen. The Yankees are 11-0 since May 2021 past the first game of a series at home after they scored more runs off the bullpen than the opposing starter last game.
John Bollman
BOSTON @ TORONTO | 08/07 | 3:07 PM EDT
BOSTON +147
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox have looked brutal lately but they are still one of the best teams in the league and should split the doubleheader. This is basically a play on this doubleheader being split, if the Red Sox win the first game we’ll stay off the second, but if they lose the first game we’ll play the second and try to come out positive with plus money on both. Neither pitcher has been especially good against the other team this season so I think this game should be closer to even. Take the value in the Red Sox.
SEATTLE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/07 | 1:05 PM EDT
SEATTLE +170
ANALYSIS: The Mariners have played the Yankees tough the first two games of this series and they coulda gone either way. The Mariners have been hitting lefties well lately and they face a familiar foe in Andrew Heaney who was just traded to the Yankees. He has faced the Mariners twice this season and been hit hard both times. Chris Flexen has struggled on the road this season but he is coming off a quality start in Tampa Bay. Take the value in the Mariners.
BOSTON @ TORONTO | 08/07 | 3:07 PM EDT
BOSTON +147
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox have looked brutal lately but they are still one of the best teams in the league and should split the doubleheader. This is basically a play on this doubleheader being split, if the Red Sox win the first game we’ll stay off the second, but if they lose the first game we’ll play the second and try to come out positive with plus money on both. Neither pitcher has been especially good against the other team this season so I think this game should be closer to even. Take the value in the Red Sox.
SEATTLE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/07 | 1:05 PM EDT
SEATTLE +170
ANALYSIS: The Mariners have played the Yankees tough the first two games of this series and they coulda gone either way. The Mariners have been hitting lefties well lately and they face a familiar foe in Andrew Heaney who was just traded to the Yankees. He has faced the Mariners twice this season and been hit hard both times. Chris Flexen has struggled on the road this season but he is coming off a quality start in Tampa Bay. Take the value in the Mariners.
