Saturday Service Play Thread 08/07/2021-

[BuzzKill]

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

Posting guidelines - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1168075

Please do not post Twitter plays or forum member plays in this thread.

Do Not Post these services:
SportsLine
The Wise Guy Team
Winning Sports Plays[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]
[/FONT]
Do not post write-ups:
AJ Apollo
Alex Smart
@ntonwins
Apple Handicappers
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
ATS Consultants
ATSadv ice.com
Ben Lewis
Brandon Lang's Crew
Bruce Marshall
Chris Jordan's Crew
Dave Cokin
Dennis Hill
Dennis Macklin
Doc Sports Handicappers
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
EZ Winners
Fairway Jayr
Fred Wallin
Gametimereport
Greg DiPalma
Hittingpaydirt
JB Sports
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Jorge Gonzalez
Ken Jenkins
Killersportslive
Larry Ness
Lenny Delgenio
LT Profits
Lucky Lester
Madduxsports
Marc Lawrence/Playbook
Matt Fargo
Mike Lineback
Mike Rose
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
PayneInsider
Paul Stone
Peter Gold at VI
Pick Nation Crew
PlusLineSports
Pointwise Sports
PowerPlay Wins
Preferred Picks
Pregame
Pro Sports Info
Red Zone Sports
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Rocky Atkinson
Ron Raymond
Ross Benjamin
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Scott Spreitzer
Sixth Sense Sports
Sports Memo Crew
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Stevo Design Inc. All services
Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers
Tennessee Valley Sports
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
The Prez
The Real Animal
Tony George
Tony Karpinski/3G-Sports
Tom Stryker
Trushel Sports Consulting
Vegasadvisor s.com
Vernon Croy

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters - /www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=340&p=13556061&viewfull=1#post13556061

 

[BuzzKill]

Ian Parker

UFC 265

Derrick Lewis (-310) vs. Cyril Gane (-380): Gane (best bet)

Derrick Lewis will be taking on the undefeated Cyril Gane for the interim heavyweight title in his hometown of Houston. In order for Lewis to win, he is going to have to find a way to slow down Gane and avoid the takedowns. Otherwise, he is going to be in for a long night. Expect Gane to fight a similar style to his last one against Alexander Volkov. He is a high-level IQ fighter and knows to not stand in front of Lewis. Gane's speed and volume with his strikes will be too much for Lewis.

Jose Aldo (-130) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+110): Munhoz (best bet)

Jose Aldo took advantage of the hesitancy of Chito Vera and secured the decision win in his last fight. However, Pedro Munhoz will be a much tougher task as he will come forward and push the pace early and often. The best way to beat Aldo is to pressure and get him fighting off his back foot and off his back if you can get him down. Munhoz has all the skills to do so, and his style plays into that well.

Michael Chiesa (+110) vs. Vicente Luque (-130): Chiesa (best bet)

So far the move to welterweight has been a great decision for Michael Chiesa. He tries to continue is unbeaten streak in the weight class against battle tested Luque. Look for Chiesa to close the distance immediately and engage in the clinch where he will have the advantage. Unless Luque can turn this into a boxing match, I think Chiesa imposes his will and out hustles Luque on the ground for the duration of the entire fight.

Rafael Fiziev (-345) vs. Bobby Green (+285): Fiziev (best bet)

This should be an excellent showcase fight for the brilliant striker, Rafael Fiziev. Bobby Green is as tough as they come, but he's unlikely to have a game plan that can foil Fiziev. Look for Fiziev to avoid the clinch and early takedown attempts of Green and utilize his kickboxing skills to dominate.

Miles Johns (-200) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+175): Johns (best bet)

In Johns' last fight, we finally saw the power in his hands and overall game we have been waiting for. I believe that carries over into this fight. Dos Santos has a strong guillotine and decent hands, but Johns is better everywhere.

Tecia Torres (-135) vs. Angela Hill (+115): Torres (lean)

This is a rematch that both women have been asking for. I believe Torres' speed in her striking and wrestling will be the difference. Hill is an excellent striker, but tends to be a little predictable as the fight goes on, and Torres' pace will give Hill problems.

Song Yadong (-110) vs. Casey Kenney (-110): Kenney (lean)

Both fighters will be looking to bounce back from their most recent loss. For Casey Kenney, losing to Dominick Cruz might be the best lesson in his career. Look for Kenney to push the pace early on Yadong , who will almost certainly wait to counter. Once Kenny lands a few strikes and gets respect from Yadong, he will change levels and utilize his wrestling, where he has the advantage.

Vince Morales (+100) vs. Drako Rodriguez (-120): Rodriguez (lean)

Vince Morales is most likely fighting to keep his spot on the roster against Drako Rodriguez. Unfortunately, this matchup does do him any favors. As long as Rodriguez doesn't get caught (just like his last fight) he should be able to control the action and win with his striking.

Alonzo Menifield (-240) vs. Ed Herman (+200): Herman (lean)

Time and time again, when Ed Herman seems to be a big underdog against a powerful athlete and striker, the world tends to rule him out. Based on Menifield's last two losses, I am going with Herman. If Herman can weather the early storm of Menifield and can put him on his back, Herman can utilize his cardio and ground game to get the upset.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-125) vs. Jessica Payne (+105): Kowalkiewicz (lean)

Trying to avoid her fifth loss in a row, Karolina Kowalkiewicz will be taking on Jessica Penne. I believe this style matchup favors Kowalkiewicz as long as she doesn't gas out. Penne will be willing to stand and strike, which favors Kowalkiewicz.

Manel Kape (-200) vs. Ode Osbourne (+170): Osbourne (lean)

So far the high expectations of Manel Kape have not been met. Unfortunately, I think he has another tough matchup stylistically in Ode Osbourne. We have not seen the aggressive nature Kape has shown in other organizations, which helped him dominate in previous fights. Due to his slow starts and hesitant nature, I am going with Osbourne.

 

[BuzzKill]

Kyle Anthony

Game: (24621) Vince Morales at (24622) Drako Rodriguez
Date/Time: Aug 7 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D%
Play: Drako Rodriguez -115
In a preliminary bout on this Saturday night's Pay Per View, UFC 265 event, Drako Rodriguez faces Vince Morales…
There's tremendous value on Drako Rodriguez in this spot.
Recency bias pushed this line much closer than it actually should be. Last fight Drako faced the questionable ability of Aiemann Zahabi in which Drako lost via KO in round 1. The inexperience of Drako rushing forward allowed Zahabi to land in a collision exchange dropping Drako. Not the best showing, but it felt more of a fluky loss than if he had gotten outgunned over 3 rounds. He got caught, …but so do many fighters. Overall Drako actually has a solid skillset, can mix in level changes like he did on Dana White's Contender Series finding a submission finish in round 1 against Mana Martinez. Facing Rodriguez Saturday night is Vince Morales who's definitely a step down in competition level. Morales is 2-4 in his last 6 pro MMA fights (1-3 in UFC) and displays very simplistic striking with a basic MMA skill set. Not saying Drako is some world-beater, but in this bout, he may look like one. My biggest takeaway when rewatching Morales's past fights is he's VERY hittable. His willingness to stand toe to toe exchanging backed by a limited arsenal of weapons and combinations developing slower than Drako should present counter striking windows to land. I've seen nothing Morales brings to the cage that should keep this line so close, …Drako should be the clear favorite. Coming off a KO loss this is a great bounce-back match-up for him to get back to his winning ways.
D% Play: Drako Rodriguez (-115)

 

[BuzzKill]

Teddy Covers

D* Philadelphia Phillies -108

 

[BuzzKill]

Kyle Anthony

C% Manel Kape -190
Analysis:
In an early preliminary bout, Manel Kape faces Ode Osbourne…
Willing to pay up in this spot for a line not quite wide enough. Manel Kape came into the UFC off 2 strong KO wins in the Rizin organization. Flashy guy with witty comments and KO power made made him a fan favorite. Upon his UFC arrival I wagered against him in both fights due to horrible stylistic match ups. They set Kape up against 2 top 5 fighters in the division - Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau right away. Losing effort in both, but signs of raw talent was there. Saturday night is a big step down in competition level from his first 2 UFC bouts. Ode Osbourne is a product of Dana White's Contender Series defeating an unimpressive Armando Villarreal via submission. In his UFC debut he lost via round 1 submission against Brian Kelleher …who's many levels below both of Kape's past UFC opponents. Add in the fact in both bouts Manel looked extremely solid and very well rounded keeping it close against elite level opposition, and Ode got choked out by Kellerher. Not a good look for him. Most recently Ode defeated Jerome Rivera who's 0-4 in his last 4 UFC appearances.
No doubt Manel Kape covers this line and could look like a -400 fighter Saturday night. This line is not wide enough and there's value in this spot. Anywhere the fight goes Manel has the advantages including pure athleticism and explosiveness. Ode may seek to fire early bombs, but I fully believe Kape has the ability to shred through him.
Play: Manel Kape (-190)

C% Tecia Torres winning via decision +120
Analysis:
In a main card bout, Tecia Torres faces Angela Hill…
These ladies fought the first time back in 2015. Tecia controlled the action most of the fight in all phases winning by unanimous decision. Saturday night will be a rematch and I'm capping a very similar outcome.
Both ladies faced tough opponents, …but boy Torres was fed a Murders Row including multiple past champions. She squared up against Rose Namajunas, Jessica Andrade, Michelle Waterson, Maria Rodriguez, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Weili Zhang. Losing efforts, but thats a gauntlet of top female fighters. Now Torres is on a 2 fight winning streak defeating Brianna Van Buren and finishing newcomer Sam Hughes in round one. While Angela Hill backers lean heavy on her ability defending takedowns and standing upright. Posting a takedown defense of 76% is solid, but over the last 5 fights it's nearly 83%. Impressive. But my opinion, the takedowns aren't fully needed for Torres to win the fight. Her striking definitely improved including strengthening her kicking game and pressuring the opposition. Her cardio and output recently sets a good pace smothering any reach advantage Hill brings to the cage. In the clinch Torres should keep busy wearing Hill down winning rounds. The biggest red flag on Hill was basically her last fight against Ashley Yoder. No offense, but Ashley's striking is awful and although Hill won it was no striking clinch. With Hill worrying about takedowns Tecia can fire her offense comfortably in the pocket moving forward pushing Hill's back to the cage.
Also one thing certain, Tecia Torres is The Decision Queen. Don't let that round one doctor stoppage last fight fool you. Win or lose almost all of Tecia's fights go to the scorecards. Now I know MMA judging has been bat shit crazy, but I see her controlling the action all 3 rounds. Getting off the (-140) line I'm very comfortable grabbing plus money on Torres most likely path to victory.
Play: Tecia Torres winning via decision (+120)

E% Vicente Luque -120
Analysis:
In a main card bout Vicente Luque faces Michael Chiesa…
We're wagering on a fighter with more weapons, can exploit a clear vulnerability of his opponent with finishing upside at nearly a pick'em price… love this spot.
No doubt Michael Chiesa is on a nice 4 fight winning streak after losing back to back via submission loss. Impressive anytime a fighter puts 4 wins together, but taking a deeper dive it's not as impressive as you'd think. Losing to guys like Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis, but winning against a step down in competition level defeating Diego Sanchez, Carlos Condit and Rafael Dos Anjos. Not only did all those opponents share the same takedown weakness, but limited power combined with average striking allowed for great stylistic match ups. Saturday night it'll be much different. Vicente Luque has a takedown defense rate of 65% which should keep him upright in the larger UFC octagon, but his offensive attack is far more superior then Chiesa's stand up game. This is where Luque will have massive success mixing in a high offensive output with solid leg kicks. The slower Chiesa many times heavy on his front foot planting which should offer opportunities to land. The only path to victory I see for Chiesa is finding a submission, but that main path for him is also an underrated part of Luque's game. Vicente's BJJ black belt crediaintals are at times limitly discussed due to his brawling mentality mixed with a granite chin most focus on. Make no mistake, Luque can handle himself anywhere this fight goes and finishing him via submission isn't the easiest thing to do. Matter fact, Luque has only been submitted twice since 2013. I believe Chiesa will sloppily seek takedowns after round 2 in which the heavy striking attack of Luque takes over. The power advantage should also be in Luque's favor as well, so I don't believe Vicente worrying much what Chiesa fires back his way… as long as he stays upright.
With more paths to victory, higher striking output, much cleaner stand up game with cardio and a rock solid chin… I'm all over this line at nearly pick'em price.
(* Would be comfortable playing this at 5% all the way up to -175, then suggested wager is 4% above that price.)
E% BEST BET: Vicente Luque (-120)

 

[BuzzKill]

pep-firsthalf

WORLD: Olympic Games – Final
Brazil Ol. – Spain Ol.
Bet : First Half : X
Odds : 1.90

 

[BuzzKill]

both-to-score

Rumania : Liga 1
Academica – U Craiova 1948
Both to score : YES @ 2.00

 

[BuzzKill]

Pickswise Sports

Olympics
Men's Basketball - Bronze Medal Game
B* Australia +135 (Moneyline)
Men's Baseball ⚾️ - Gold Medal Game
B* USA/Japan Under 8.5 runs
Men's Soccer - Gold Medal Game
B* Spain/Brazil Under 1.5 goals

MLB C* Best Bets
Blue Jays -160 (Game #1)
Dodgers -1.5 runs [-130

 

[kingbookie]

Marty’s

60* Mets/Phillies OVER 9
50* Seattle +178
50* ChiSox -1.5 -120

 

[BuzzKill]

XS Sports

C* Miami +131 (8pm)
C* Minnesota +180 (7pm)
D* Toronto -1.5 +145 (3pm)
D* Kansas City Under 8.5 -115 (7pm)

 

[BuzzKill]

Total 4 U

2021 NL East on FS1 Super Total of the Year
NY Mets/Phillies Under 9

MLB Baseball Bonus Winners
Washington/Atlanta over 8 1/2
Miami/Colorado over 10 1/2
Tampa Bay/Baltimore under 10
LA Angels/LA Dodgers over 8 1/2

 

[sailfish]

Locksmith
Phillies ml

 

[sailfish]

BobSportsBets
Seattle Team Total over 4

 

[sailfish]

IQ Sports

E* Red Sox +145 (Game 1 of DH)

 

[sailfish]

Pure Lock

J* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
J* Vicente Luque -108 (UFC)

 

[sailfish]

MLB(Bob Balfe)
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #901
Mets -110 over Phillies
Megill/Suarez
The NL East is pretty competitive and should come down to the wire. Both starting pitchers today are young guys that have decent numbers, but don’t really have the ability to stretch their starts into long outings. The Phillies bullpen is weak so whenever you can get to them early it is a plus. The Mets are a little better at hitting left handed pitching and should be able to get to Suarez early. Take the Mets.

 

[sailfish]

Powers Sports
Mets/Phillies UNDER 9
Yankees on the RUN LINE vs Seattle.

 

[sailfish]

Larry Ness
I* Over Yankee game

 

[sailfish]

Delphi Sports

MLB
C* #903/904 San Francisco/Milwaukee under 8