Saturday Service Play Thread 07/31/2021

[BuzzKill]

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[bribux]

GreenPunter us

Texas Rangers – Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners

 

[BuzzKill]

Kyle Anthony

C% Trevin Jones +130
Analysis:
In a preliminary bout Trevin Jones faces Ronnie Lawrence…
Liking the plus money spot here on Trevin Jones.
Despite his 13-6 professional MMA record, Jones has a solid skill set with some very close decision losses. Over his last 10 MMA fights Trevin is 7-3 with all 3 losses coming by way of split decision. His light footed movement mixed with rangy combinations and in spots displayed KO power provides a well rounded arsenal. While Ronnie Lawrence has a pro record of 7-1 but shown holes and vulnerability in his game. What's most concerning about Lawrence is how his head stays on center line there to be hit. Most recently against Vince Cachero who's 1-4 in last 5 MMA bouts, Cachero kept pace with Lawrence and was able to scramble back to his feet when Ronnie level changed controlling position. His lack of striking allowed Ronnie to continue pushing for takedowns bullying Cachero, but for the level he is Lawrence should've kept him down multiple times. On Saturday night I believe the movement and toe to toe exchanges favor Trevin widely. Even if Ronnie pushes for takedown's he'll have to use some striking getting past what Jones fires back. The forward push should allow Trevin to land heavy shots and utilize his superior hand speed. Add in his strong leg kicking game mixed in and I'm loving this dog money on Jones.
It appears he's putting it all together and at this price I'm comfortable wagering 3%.
Play: Trevin Jones (+130)

C% Danny Chavez +105
Analysis:
In a preliminary bout Danny Chavez faces Kai Kamaka…
The biggest reasons I like Danny Chavez is the high pace at which he fights, cardio levels and versatile offensive game. Spots where he's shown vulnerability is against heavy grapplers mixing in takedowns. Kai Kamaka will seek to keep fight standing and Danny can be the one throwing off his opponent with level changes. The high pace Danny pushes should also break Kai in rounds 2 and 3 if needed. Early round 1 Kai displays nice movement and slick combinations, but tails off later in fights. Chavez has the cardio to back up his pace as well as fantastic hand speed working his angles. Most recently Kai's fight against TJ Brown proved his cardio is limited. End of round 1 and into round 2 Kai's striking volume slowed down allowing TJ to continue implementing his game plan winning by decision win. That vulnerability will present tons of opportunities for Chavez to takeover the fight. Add in his good movement and footwork opening up his strong leg kicking game will slow Kai down further. Mixing that all together I don't see where Kai has an advantage in this one. Danny's toughness and pressure should breakdown Kamaka as long as the fight lasts.
Getting slight plus money on a guy with more paths to victory, better cardio and more versatile striking…I'm on Chavez getting the job done Saturday night.
Play: Danny Chavez (+105)

C% Nicco Montano -230
Analysis:
In the featured preliminary fight Nicco Montano faces Yanan Wu…
This line is chalky… but not chalky enough.
Even at -230 there's value as I'd cap Nicco roughly around -350 to -400. Not going to give a big breakdown on a wide line, simply put Nicco should absolutely dominate the grappling. There's nothing I've seen from Wu skill wise to have much of a worry. This bout is very similar to our client play winner 2 weeks ago on Miesha Tate (-120). Although not as much value but mirroring the stylistic comeback fight after a layoff. UFC is giving Nicco a highly favorable match up upon her return and a clear path to victory. Once in the clinch, Nicco will bulldoze Wu down gaining control each round winning on the scorecards. There is upside to Nicco finding a finish at some point on the ground, as Yanan doesn't normally offer up much resistance. Also I believe this line isn't wider due to the fact the MMA community hates Nicco. Yup, they sure do. After pulling out of about 5 fights back to back to back her fanbase and backers have pulled for her demise. In a division that could use more stars and talent, the defending T.U.F. champion should comeback to the octagon in dominate winning fashion. This is a spot I'm willing to pay up on a fighter that should clearly be a one-sided win.
Play: Nicco Montano (-230)

C% Ryan Benoit -130
Analysis:
In a main card bout Ryan Benoit faces Zarrukh Adashev…
When Zarrukh came into the UFC he was touted as this high level kick boxer, …but boy his ability hasn't translated well in the UFC. In his first 2 UFC appearances he faced opponents whom prefer standing, and Zarrukh was KO'ed in round one by journeymen fighter Tyson Nam and losing to Su Mudaerji via unanimous decision. Losing basically 2 kick boxing matches could be a glimpse that he's just not UFC caliber. Benoit doesn't have a glamorous MMA record of 10-7, but that MMA experience weighs heavy in a bout against the limited MMA experience Zarrukh has with a record of 3-3 (0-2 in UFC) since going pro. On Saturday night against Ryan Benoit it could cause Adashev major problems against his well rounded skill set. Ryan is better then Zarrukh everywhere, …but the key and clear path to victory is his grappling. At times Benoit falls in love with his striking and doesn't mix in level changes but this is a favorable stylistic match up. As long as he sticks to his game plan and isn't drawn into a full on kick boxing match he should control the cage all fight long. Even if it's a full striking bout Bonoit can still handle himself by giving Zarrukh different looks and attacks. Plus add in Ryan's 3.5 inch reach advantage and I'm very comfortable with this wager. Although Ryan has been stuck in the middle of the pack in the division, he is taking a step down in competition level and we're grabbing him at a good price.
Play: Ryan Benoit (-130)

 

[BuzzKill]

Elite Sports Picks

Milwaukee (Woodruff) -150 over Atlanta (Muller)

 

[BuzzKill]

Insider Sports Report

E* Philadelphia (Nola) -150 over Pittsburgh (Brubaker)
Range: -135 to -175
C* Boston (Eovaldi) -115 over Tampa Bay (Yarbrough)
Range: +105 to -135
C* N.Y. Mets (Hill) -125 over Cincinnati (Miley)
Range: -105 to -145

 

[BuzzKill]

National Sports Service
D* Detroit (Manning) +105 over Baltimore (Means)
C* Cincinnati (Miley)/N.Y. Mets (Hill) OVER 8

 

[BuzzKill]

Top Rank Sports

D★ Milwaukee (Woodruff) -150 over Atlanta (Muller)
C★ San Francisco (Wood) +110 over Houston (Greinke)

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters - /www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=340&p=13551682&viewfull=1#post13551682

 

[BuzzKill]

totalmatchvip

Germany III Liga
Dortmund II – Mannheim
Over 3

 

[JMEYERS]

SYSTEM 4 TEAM PARLAY
LA Angels +1.5
Miami Marlins ML
Texas Rangers ML
Philadelphia Phillies ML

 

[MikeJoe206]

Dave Essler MLB IL Game of the Month

Giants ML

 

[MikeJoe206]

Stephen Nover DISCOUNTED DAY GAME DOMINATOR

Athletics/Angels UNDER

Stephen Nover 2-FOR-1 MLB SATURDAY SWEEP

Orioles ML
Brewers ML

 

[BuzzKill]

Jeff Hochman

Atlanta Braves +1'

 

[BuzzKill]

Totals 4 You MLB Baseball Report

2021 American League on FS1 Super Total of the Year
Oakland/LA Angels under 9 1/2

MLB Baseball Bonus Winners
Milwaukee/Atlanta under 8 1/2
Houston/San Francisco over 8
Boston/Tampa Bay over 8 1/2
Cleveland/Chicago White Sox over 9

 

[sailfish]

MLB(BobBalfe)
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #975
Astros -105 over Giants
Greinke/Wood

 

[sailfish]

Jim Feist

MLB
C* #965/966 Athletics/Angels under 10.5

 

[Eagles1122]

does anyone have dwyane bryant or marco dianglo 5%?

 

[sailfish]

Lee Sterling UFC
Benoit

 

[sailfish]

Tony George MLB

D Units - #965 Oakland (-135) vs LA Angels *4 EST


B Units - #971 Seattle (-145) over Texas *7 EST

 

[FreeKick]

Green Falcon Picks (of Green Pitch Sports)

AD Santos de Guapiles - Municipal Grecia
Costa Rica, Primera Division, 00:00 CET (Aug 1) / 6:00 PM ET
1 Unit: Municipal Grecia +0.25 -105

Record (since Feb. 20, service start):
90-60-7 (79.5-56-7) / +63.864 Units